Is Putin lighting the fuse for full scale war in Ukraine

The dust has begun to settle. The Ukrainian elections are over, and governments in the EU and around the world are now confronted with the prickly problem of how to deal with the Russian reaction to the incoming pro-western Ukrainian government. Putin is already expressing his apoplectic anger at the pro-western choice of the Ukrainian people. Even in the face of the failure of the far-right Svoboda party to obtain the necessary 5% threshold to enter the Ukrainian parliament, Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Lavrov, insists on the lie that

"...   promotion of certain radical elements into Ukraine’s parliament (the Verkhovna Rada), such as the Svoboda Party and Radical Party, remains a serious concern .." (RT  Published time: October 27, 2014 22:40)

Lavrov after the Ukrainina election results

As reported in the Jerusalem Post,

"Russian propaganda describing the Ukrainian government as fascist took a hit on Monday when the far-right Svoboda party apparently failed to maintain its place in national politics by receiving less than the 5-percent threshold required to enter the legislature.

Senior figures among the various Jewish communities and organizations expressed pleasure at the widespread support for the pro-western blocs of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, which together took just over 43% of the vote as of Monday evening, with 63% of the ballots counted."

Jews praying in Donetsk

Similarly, Paul Berger (30 October 2014) has pointed out that,

" Ukraine’s parliamentary election delivered a stinging rebuttal to Russia’s claims that this year’s pro-Western revolution was galvanized by fascism and anti-Semitism.
Far-right and nationalist parties, long singled out by Russia as prime evidence of the revolution’s extremist character, suffered a series of stunning setbacks."
  
Why, then, are even Putin's 'academics' railing at a conference held in Moscow last week on the history of Nazi war crimes that,

"There is not much difference, the Russian historians suggested, between the actions of the Ukrainian military in its war against separatist rebels and the atrocities that Hitler’s forces committed during World War II." as reported by Simon Shuster in Moscow. (October 29 2014) 

Shuster also states that, "Vladimir Putin has turned the idea of fascism into a political tool, and now Russian historians are adapting to the Kremlin line." (my emphasis)

Rather presciently, Sven Borsche, the German co-chairman of the conference, began to feel that something was amiss in Moscow as soon as he met his Russian hosts. “All they wanted to talk about was the conflict in Ukraine,” he says.

Sven Borsche

It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

 Marine Le Pen met with State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin (right) and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis)

Neo-Nazi Nick Griffin of the British BNP Party in Russia

Putin's constant narrative that 'fascists and neo-Nazis' are now in control in Ukraine is a narrative that he needs to justify him and his kleptocratic clique remaining in power. Furthermore, as the current sanctions against Russia begin to seriously effect the living standards of ordinary Russians, and the decline in the economy of Russia begins to accelerate, the only alternative open to him is to put Russia on a war footing. Putin needs a war, and he knows it. How else is he going to convince the Russian people to 'tighten their belts' as winter approaches.

That he is ramping up for a war is also evidenced by the fact that NATO is reporting a rise in Russian Military flights over Europe.

 A NATO statement yesterday (29 Oct 2014) stated that,

"...Russian aircraft were detected flying over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, prompting fighter jets from Nato member states to intercept and follow them.
Overall, Nato said it had intercepted Russian aircraft more than 100 times so far this year - three times more than it did last year." (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting about these flights is that these Russian military aircraft " ... pose a potential risk to civilian aviation because the Russian military often does not file flight plans or use on-board transponders." (CNN News 30 Oct 2014)

Even the Swedes are becoming nervous, having spent the past week trying to find a submarine lurking in its waters. Just last month," .. Sweden protested to Moscow after two Russian fighter jets entered its airspace. And across the Baltic in Estonia, an intelligence official working close to the border was abducted by Russian agents and taken to Moscow." 

Ingaro Bay searched by Swedish Navy

"This week a Russian surveillance aircraft took off from Kaliningrad and flew first toward Danish and then Swedish airspace. Finally it entered the airspace of Estonia, before being escorted away by Nato jets.

All this activity is changing security calculations across the region. Sweden has already announced defence spending is going to go up, and Latvia's foreign minister said the Swedish sub search could become a game changer." (BBC News 26 Oct 2014)

Then we have that recent encounter between Norwegian scientists and a Russian submarine. (Ali Kefford 28 Oct 2014)

Is this part of Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to what is known as an area rich in oil and gas? This should be seen alongside the fact that Russia is building a military town in the Arctic.
(Ria Novosti 30/10/2014)

Modular Russian Military Base been built in Arctic

Possibly most dangerous of all, ( if true) does Putin have cancer? And, if so, " ... is his aggressive foreign policy of the past several months ... due to a sick Putin desperately trying to leave behind a legacy", as speculated in the German 'Bild 'and the Polish newspaper 'Fakt' " (Andre F. Puglie Oct. 29 2014), amongst many other news sources?

We know that "Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov was forced to address concerns when Putin cut down on foreign travel and delayed a trip to Japan in 2012. The president was suffering from a "minor sports injury," Ivanov said at the time." (Andre F. Puglie)

Dmitry Peskov ( October 29, 2014), Putin's spokesman, has ridiculed US media reports that the Russian strongman may be suffering from cancer, saying he was fine and that journalists should "shut their trap".

(to be continued)

Putin anger at Ukraine October 26 election results

The Ukrainian election results of 26th October 2014 has been a huge slap in the face for Putin. The people of Ukraine have unanimously rejected being a political 'vassal' of the Kremlin, and are determined to become an integral part of Europe and the EU. As David Stern points out,

"Ukraine's parliamentary elections potentially could completely transform the country's political landscape. The question is, in what way.
Already this is shaping up to be the most pro-Western legislature in the country's post-independence history. Former heavy hitters, like former President Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions and the Communist Party, have been sidelined."

And now the deceptive political mask that Putin has worn since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis has finally slipped from his face. The predicted theft by Putin of the 'rebel' controlled area in eastern Ukraine will soon become a reality.

Already the Kremlin is putting in place exactly what it did in Crimea. Legitimise the criminal proxies of Putin in the rebel controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, and then absorb those areas into Russia.

 

As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov has said,

" ..... [the] elections [to be held in the rebel controlled areas on 2nd November 2014] in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions "will be important to legitimise the authorities there".

And what is the EU doing whilst Putin gives the illusion that he is tearing up his own Minsk Agreement? Poland is biting the bullet. As Adam Easton writes from Warsaw,

"There has been a significant shift in the Polish military's strategic thinking in recent months, illustrated in the new National Security Strategy approved last week by the government.

For the first time in more than 20 years it admits that Poland is threatened by war and names Russia as an aggressor in Ukraine. (my emphasis)

Poles are genuinely concerned about the threat of war breaking out. However, the reinforcement of several garrisons in eastern Poland is less significant"

Yet, as Andrei Sannikov points out,

"It looks as if Europe is about to declare its favourite postulate: “Russia is by far more important for us than any other former Soviet country.” That was always the case before the war in Ukraine broke out. Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance.

Andrei Sannikov

Europe cannot understand that this is a war on Europe, not on Ukraine, and that Putin, if not convincingly defeated, will go ahead with his expansionism and revisionism. The ground is laid for that: Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian minorities in Baltic states, the Kaliningrad exclave, and now Donbass and Lugansk are more than enough of a major Kremlin offensive in Europe." (my emphasis) 

 For the EU the stakes are getting higher and higher. Even Angela Merkel is finally becoming aware that,

" ... Russia’s actions against Ukraine potentially threaten the “European peace order.” Policy debates in Germany reflect, belatedly and still tentatively, this assessment...."

As Vladimir Socor says, "Merkel is becoming increasingly (and uncharacteristically) critical of Moscow’s actions against Ukraine, and concerned about the implications beyond Ukraine."

 Yet she cannot quite distance herself from Putin's Minsk Agreement.

"Merkel (and any government in this situation) has no choice but to turn to the same Moscow in attempting to salvage the armistice agreements. In standing up for observance of the armistice agreements, Merkel is implicitly and explicitly acting in Ukraine’s interest at this time." (Vladimir Socor)

But is she really acting in Ukraine's interest at this time? Or is she simply wishing that the Ukraine crisis can go away, and that the German economy can reinstate its exports to Russia.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, right, and Vice Chancellor and Economic Minister Sigmar Gabriel arrive for the weekly cabinet meeting in the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014. (AP Photo/Steffi Loos)

 As reported on ABC News (October 29 2014),

"German exports to Russia dropped by more than a quarter in August over the same month a year ago as sanctions over Ukraine took an increasing toll. The Federal Statistical Office said Wednesday that German exports to Russia dropped 26.3 percent in August to 2.3 billion euros ($2.93 billion).

Over the first eight months of 2014, exports to Russia fell 16.6 percent to 20.3 billion euros, led by a 22.6 percent drop in machinery deliveries. Russia was Germany's 11th biggest market in 2013 but slid to 13th in the first eight months of 2014."

But perhaps most frightening of all is the fact that in 2 days time Federica Mogherini will take on the mantle of the EU's new Foreign Policy Chief. That she is soft on Russia is a well known fact.

"Many EU leaders failed to agree on her candidacy. The Baltic states and Poland saw her as inexperienced and too soft on Russia. Mogherini has also only been Italy's foreign minister since February (2014)." (Daniela Vincenti)

Thus, "[w]hile there is broad support for maintaining the sanctions within the EU, a number of senior politicians, including incoming EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, have questioned whether the measures are affecting Russian President Vladimir Putin's decisions toward Ukraine." (Laurence Norman 29 October 2014)

Putin and the 'fragrant' Mogherini in Moscow July 2014

Like Merkel, she will no doubt be pushing the Minsk Agreement in the full knowledge that Putin, by stating that " ..... [the] elections [to be held in the rebel controlled areas on 2nd November 2014] in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions "will be important to legitimise the authorities there", will simply argue that these 'elections' are fulfilling clause 9 of the Minsk Agreement.

 9. Ensure early local elections in accordance with the law of Ukraine "about local government provisional arrangements in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts" (law on the special status)

The EU and the US will argue that the elections to be held in the rebel areas on 2nd November 2014 will not be 'in accordance with the law of Ukraine' and, indeed, this will be the case. But, in reality, this is a diplomatic coup for Putin. "Ukraine’s [and the EU's and America's] current predicament is a familiar one to Georgia and Moldova: these countries were forced into a Russian-dictated armistice agreements, which then became their only recourse against Russian abuses of the agreed terms." (Vladimir Socor )

As Andrei Sannikov says, "It looks as if Europe is about to declare its favourite postulate: “Russia is by far more important for us than any other former Soviet country.” That was always the case before the war in Ukraine broke out. Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance." (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin and the emerging truth ... The Valdai Club meeting

"The Russian News and Information Agency RIA Novosti, in association with The Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, the journals Russia Profile and Russia in Global Politics, and the newspaper The Moscow News, has, for many years, hosted the Valdai International Discussion Club meeting.
The 10 year-old Valdai Club aims to create an international expert forum where key international Russia specialists can receive authoritative, reliable information about the growth and development of our country and its society from leading members of the Russian elite."

The Valdai Club can be viewed as Putin's attemp at setting up the Russian equivalent of the Council on Foreign Relations, or the Royal Institute of International Affairs, or the Bilderberg Club, or any of the renowned political discussion clubs/societies that can be found in the west.

At its most recent meeting (24 October 2014) in Sochi, Putin rather dropped a bombshell on the international community in response to a question asked by Piotr Dutkiewicz about Crimea . Putin responed in part as follows:

"Yanukovych called me and said he would like us to meet to talk it over. I agreed. Eventually we agreed to meet in Rostov because it was closer and he did not want to go too far. I was ready to fly to Rostov. However, it turned out he could not go even there. They were beginning to use force against him already, holding him at gunpoint. They were not quite sure where to go.

I will not conceal it; we helped him move to Crimea, where he stayed for a few days. That was when Crimea was still part of Ukraine. However, the situation in Kiev was developing very rapidly and violently, we know what happened, though the broad public may not know – people were killed, they were burned alive there. They came into the office of the Party of Regions, seized the technical workers and killed them, burned them alive in the basement. Under those circumstances, there was no way he could return to Kiev. Everybody forgot about the agreements with the opposition signed by foreign ministers and about our telephone conversations. Yes, I will tell you frankly that he asked us to help him get Russia, which we did. That was all." (my emphasis)

Why, only now, is Putin releasing the following facts:

• Yanukovich was allegedly being held at gunpoint in Kiev
• Yanukovich was helped by him to escape to Crimea
• a massacre allegedly occurred at the office of the Party of Regions in Kiev at which people were burned alive
• Putin knows for certain that this happened
• the broad public may not know about this massacre

More importantly, how could this alleged massacre at the offices of the Party of Regions have been kept secret for so long? Why did the Putin propaganda machine itself keep silent about this massacre? Surely this knowledge about a massacre would have been a huge political coup for Putin, so why the silence? Yet his propaganda machine invented a story about a baby being crucified that was proved to be false.

If this was not bad enough, let's look at what Putin had to say about the US and its allies.

"In a situation where you had domination by one country [ the US] and its allies [the EU], or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes. This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case.

The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries. In essence, what was being proposed was the formula: the greater the loyalty towards the world’s sole power centre, the greater this or that ruling regime’s legitimacy." (my emphasis)

What is rather chilling about Putin saying that, "The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries", is that he has executed this perverse belief  himself by simply taking over Crimea and actively helping in the creation of contrived 'Russian enclaves' in eastern Ukraine, over the dead bodies of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian people.

But we have been here before with Putin.

"Putin has shown by his actions against the Russian people in 1999, and now (2014) in Ukraine, that he can cock a snook at the West because the West does not want to precipitate a fighting war with the current Russian leader. So Putin surrounds Ukraine with a readied army and blatantly foments and stokes dangerous unrest, especially in Eastern Ukraine. After all, if he could cynically kill Russian men, women, and children to bolster his image, why not dismember Ukraine to do exactly the same, irrespective of the consequences?"

Why are so many western and EU politicians, academics and apologists  for Putin, especially so many neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations, so willing to shut their mouth, eyes, and ears to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon Ukraine? (cf. also Anton Shekovtsov and Alina Polyakova)

But the really crucial question is,"Will the Russian public now hear about Putin 'saving' Yanukovich and, more importantly, how will all of this square with Putin not telling them about that alleged massacre in Kiev, when Yanukovich supportes were allegedly 'burnt' to death?

Let us for a moment cast our minds back to what Zhirinovsky said.

"America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia," the veteran Russian nationalist MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky railed during a talk show on Channel One, Russia's most popular TV station."

Today (26 October 2014) we have elections in Ukraine. Let us see what happens before we continue ....

(to be continued)

Putin, the Russian media, and conspiracies

According to David Hoffman (Jan 30 2000), Putin's brief as a KGB agent in Dresden during the last half of the 1980's was,

"to [look] for East Germans who had a plausible reason to travel abroad, such as professors, journalists, scientists, and technicians, for whom there were 'acceptable' legends, or cover stories ..... that they could use to link up with other spies permanently stationed in the West. According to German intelligence specialists who described Putin's task, the goal was stealing western technology or NATO secrets ..."

Acting Russian President Putin speaks to the media (Jan 13 2000) at St. Petersburg University

Putin is thus steeped in using 'cover' stories as a tool of  'deception' to conceal his real goals.

But how do you create a public cover story that you can:

1. actively control as a tool of deception,
2. actively change as circumstances dictate,
3. actively steer in the direction of your ultimate goal,
4. actively re-inforce in the minds of the public upon whom your status and power rests,
5. actively re-inforce in the minds of your adversaries?

In the case of Ukraine; as the events since the invasion of Crimea and the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine have unfolded, Putin has had to:

1. transform his cover story about simply protecting the language and cultural rights of those Russians living in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, as evidenced in particular by his focussing on his Minsk Protocol.
2. ramp up his his 'cover story' to white heat in the minds of the Russian people and the global public by pouring untold millions into his local and global (RT) propaganda machines,
3. sow the seeds of dissention amongst his EU and US adversaries in particular,
4. ensure that the Russian people are 'protected' from gaining access to western versions of his actions by e.g. controlling their access to western media and, most important of all,
5. sow the seeds of western 'conspiracies' against Russia

"America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia," ( 25 September 2014) the veteran Russian nationalist MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky railed during a talk show on Channel One, Russia's most popular TV station."

Strangely enough, the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, has carried Putin's argument about Novorossiya , which Putin himself used to invade and annex Crimea, to its logical conclusion.

Let us now try to imagine that this argument of Lukashenko is aired on prime-time Russian TV. How will the Russian people react? Will, for example, Khodorkovsky, still agree with the annexation of Crimea by Putin?

M.B. Khordorkovsky

As Gary Kasparov  argues, "When commenting on the scandalous statements made by Alexey Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky that they would not return Crimea to Ukraine, Kasparov emphasized that the conclusion an external observer could reach after this consists of the fact that there is no essential alternative to Putin in Russia." (Glavred)

Alexey Navalny

What is dis-heartening about Kasparov's statement is that there really does seem to be no alternative to Putin. Furthermore, the Russian people are been fed on a diet of  'conspiracy' theories that blames the West for everything that is going wrong in Russia. Even the pulpits are in lock-step with Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin in Milan, and the falling price of oil

On 16th October, ABC News reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's diplomatic blitz on Ukraine got off to a rocky start Thursday when he kept German Chancellor Angela Merkel waiting for a meeting then showed up in the middle of a dinner with European and Asian leaders."

That initial meeting between Putin and Merkel was cancelled, but then it transpires that the two had a meeting deep into the night over the crisis in Ukraine.

Putin and Merkel in Milan on Thursday 16 October 2014

Merkel had earlier that day met with Poroshenko.

Merkel and Poroshenko in Italy

The next day (Friday 17 October) Putin met with Poroshenko for a breakfast meeting, and they were " joined by some EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi."

Putin, Poroshenko, and others meeting in Milan

But all was for naught. The general consensus is that at this meeting,"[a] political solution to the conflict in Ukraine has not yet been found... President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy commented on the talks and urged both Russia and Ukraine to follow through on the peace agreement reached in Minsk, Belarus at the beginning of September.", as reported by Putin's propaganda machine, RT.

Yet again Putin's supporters at that meeting i.e. Merkel, Renzi and Van Rompuy are, like Putin, pushing his agenda that has come to be known as the Minsk Agreement. As I stated on 18th September,

"Key points of this Minsk memorandum include:

• To pull heavy weaponry 15km by each side from the line of contact, creating a 30km security zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To set up an OSCE monitoring mission
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone

Points 2 and 5 are of particular interest. Does it refer to BOTH Russia AND Ukraine? Similarly, if Donetsk and Luhansk are given self-rule, will Ukrainian soldiers also be regarded as "foreign mercenaries" by these entities? Notice that none of these points even mention having a buffer zone along the border between Russia and Ukraine. In effect, the current areas controlled by Russia's proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk will become an integral part of Russia."

Let us also be reminded of who attended this Minsk meeting:

• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• Russia's proxies in Eastern Ukraine DPR and LPR leaders Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnytskiv

No current EU representative, nor the current Ukrainian President, nor the current Ukrainian Prime Minister attended this meeting.

With the exception of Heidi Tagliavini (a Swiss diplomat), this was a meeting rubber-stamping Putin's agenda and attended by those who feared him (Kuchma), depended on his patronage (Mikhail Zurabov), and his Russian criminal cohorts disguised as 'leaders' in eastern Ukraine (Zakharchenko and Plotyntskiv).

Now it only remains to be seen what falls out from that "deep into the night" meeting betweeen Merkel and Putin (16 into 17 October 2014). Let us also not forget that, "... on 31st July 2014, it emerged that Putin and Merkel had secret talks that conceded Crimea to Russia in exchange for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. And yet the war in eastern Ukraine continues, (October 18 2014) notwithstanding Putin's Minsk Agenda.

Whilst all these meetings were happening in Milan, Putin had something of a headache to contend with. On the same day (17 October) that he met all those leaders for a "breakfast" meeting, the price of oil continued on its downward spiral. Given the 'one trick' energy-exporting nature of Russia's economy, Putin was somewhat apocalyptic about the effects that this fall in the price of oil could have on the world economy. As Tomas Hirst points out,

"Vladimir Putin said Friday that the global economy would collapse if the oil price was allowed to remain at around $80 a barrel for too long.
At a press conference following talks on the Ukrainian crisis in Milan, Italy the Russian president warned that prices as low as $80 a barrel would cause US oil production to crash as well as putting pressure on the rest of the global economy."

Jake Rudnitsky and Henry Meyer  have put it even more succinctly. 

" The decline in oil prices may be depriving Russian President Vladimir Putin of his biggest ally..."

 

 Even more disconcerting, as Pavel Koshin points out,

".. if oil prices drop to $87 per barrel and the dollar-ruble exchange rate trades as high as 40 in 2015. In such a scenario, Russia would have to use money from its Reserve Fund, which comprises about $90 billion, he announced at the Oct. 13 session of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament.

All of these recent developments have spurred the growth of numerous conspiracy theories among the Russian elites and led to a certain amount of consternation. They have also made Russian policymakers reassess their economic policy."

Russia, already awash with 'conspiracy' theories about the war they are having with Ukraine, now has a 'new' conspiracy actor on the stage viz. the price of oil. Just how many 'conspiracy' theories can the Kremlin invent without becoming a hostage to its own conspiracies? If the myth that there is no Russian soldiers actively engaging in a war in eastern Ukraine has taken such a powerful hold on the mind of the ordinary Russian citizen, what will the Kremlin myth that Obama and Saudi Arabia are trying to bring Russia to its knees by forcing the oil price to collapse do to the minds of the Russian people?

(to be continued)

Putin, the Church, and Ukraine

On the 9th June 2014, I wrote that,

"If Patriarch Kirill could raise Putin's status to sainthood, as Pope Francis recently did with John Paul II, he would do so gladly, and with all the pomp and splendour at his command. And if, in the process, the Russian people are once again reduced to serfdom, then so be it. Was it not during the era of the Czars, when the vast majority of Russians were serfs, that the Russian Orthodox Church was at its zenith?
Ironically, the utter failure of the Bolsheviks to excise the power of the Russian Orthodox Church from the heart of the Russian people has given Putin the perfect vehicle with which to emulate St. George, with the active help and support of Patriarch Kirill. One can only wonder at what is currently being disseminated amongst the people of Russia by the footsoldiers of the Russian Orthodox Church. The deafening silence of the Russian pulpits about the evil been done by Putin in Ukraine has, after all, its historical counterpart in Germany under Hitler. There is, truly, nothing new under the sun."

And now (6 Oct. 2014) it is emerging that the " .. role that Kirill's resurgent church played in the release of the [OSCE] monitors sheds light on how a close cooperation between the state and the church in Russia is now playing out in Ukraine.

What the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) presents as its humanitarian mission in east Ukraine, Western Diplomats see as a pattern of cooperation in which the church is acting as a "soft power" ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin" (Gabriella Baczynska and Tom Henegan) (see also Forbes)

It is well know that "[i]n the early 1990s and later on, Kirill was accused of having links to the KGB during much of the Soviet period, as were many members of the Russian Orthodox Church hierarchy, and of pursuing the state's interests before those of the Church. His alleged KGB agent's codename was "Mikhailov". (Tony Halpin)

Furthermore, "Kirill [was accused] of profiteering and abuse of the privilege of duty-free importation of cigarettes granted to the Church in the mid-1990s and dubbed him "Tobacco Metropolitan". The Department for External Church Relations was alleged to have acted as the largest supplier of foreign cigarettes in Russia. Kirill’s personal wealth was estimated to be $1.5 billion by sociologist Nikolai Mitrokhin in 2004, and at $4 billion by The Moscow News in 2006. However, Nathaniel Davis noted that "...There is no evidence that Metropolitan Kirill has actually embezzled funds. What is more likely is that profits from the importation of tobacco and cigarettes have been used for urgent, pressing Church expenses. The duty-free importation of cigarettes ended in 1997".(Wikipedia) and (Forbes)

Kirill in 1981

Like Putin, Patriarch Kirill also has expensive tastes in watches. Lest this be made public, a picture of him wearing a $30,000 Breguet watch was doctored so that the watch vanished from his wrist and was not on public view. However, sometimes things do go awry, as the pictures below goes to prove. They forgot to 'doctor' the reflection of the watch on the table.

Now you see it (un-doctored)                                          Now you don't (doctored)

The Kyiv Patriarchate, which has 2,781 parishes, split from the Moscow Patriarchate’s Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which has 11,358 parishes, in 1992, after Moscow refused to recognize the Ukrainian church’s independence.(KyivPost Oct. 2 2014)

The conflicts that now exist amongst the Russian and Ukrainian Orthodox Christians in Ukraine have been amplified by the growing schism between the followers of Patriarch Filaret, of the Kyiv Patriarchate, and those of Patriarch Kirill. 

As reported by the KyivPost (Oct. 2 2014), 

"[t]he Kyiv Patriarchate, which describes itself as patriotic and pro-European, has strengthened its position after supporting the EuroMaidan Revolution that drove President Viktor Yanukovych out of power. It has also taken a strong stand in support of Ukraine's defense against Russia's war. Now it is hoping that the wave of patriotic sentiment will help unify the two major Ukrainian Orthodox groups into a single independent church."

Patriarch Filaret

Furthermore, that "[t]he unification of the Moscow Patriarchate's Ukrainian Orthodox Church and the Kyiv Patriarchate will inevitably happen because Ukraine has become an independent state and must have its own independent church", said Filaret. (KyivPost)

Given the preponderence of parishes of the Moscow Orthodox Church in Ukraine, one can only begin to imagine what the Ukrainian members of those parishes, who sympathise with the EuroMaidan revolution, must be going through. Even more depressing for them, how do they now respond towards their priests from whom they seek spiritual guidance? And what about those priests themselves, who take their orders from Patriarch Kirill? 

Let us not forget that Patriarch Kirill "called the "12 years of Vladimir Putin's rule a "miracle of God (my emphasis)" and criticised his opponents, at a gathering where religious leaders heaped praise on the [then] prime minister." (Reuters Feb 8, 2012)
 

Where Kirill praised Putin

And now?

How does Putin's 'religious' oligarch sleep at night?

(to be continued)

Putin putting on a brave face ...

"Oh! what a tangled web we weave

  When first we practice to deceive"

Lavrov has said that ties with Washington needs a reset v2.00, whilst at the same time continuing to maintain the deception that Russia does not have any intimate involvement with her proxies in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, whilst bombs from Russian proxies are raining around Donetsk airport, Lavrov has the effrontery to say that,

" ..... thanks to "initiatives of the Russian President", the situation was improving on the ground in Ukraine, where a ceasefire has been in place for several weeks. The Sept.5 truce is largely holding though some fighting has continued in places including the rebel stronghold of Donetsk."

 Pro-Russian rebels fire towards Ukrainian positions near the airport, from make-shift shelters inside houses

Meanwhile, Poland has yesterday ( Tue Oct 7, 2014) warned Russia that it could face tougher sanctions over Ukraine because breaches of the ceasefire continues due in main to the active support been given by Putin to his proxies in Donetsk in particular. 

"If Russia does not change its policy, sanctions will be toughened and they will make themselves felt even more in Russia," Schetyna said in an interview with Polish broadcast Polsat News."

  

Even the IMF has concluded that the battered Russian economy faces more pain over Ukraine, as reported yesterday by Max Delaney

But Putin is putting on a brave face  by saying at an annual conference in Moscow, and attended by Russian delegates and other business leaders from around the world, that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions. (3 Oct 2014)

Putin addressing delegates

What is the effect of the sanctions against Russia on Central Asia?
As Stephen Blank points out (May 27, 2014),

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has called Russia’s invasion, occupation and annexation of the Crimean peninsula. along with its incitement of a civil war in Eastern Ukraine. a game-changer. One region where this description could possess particular resonance is Central Asia. All Central Asian governments have considerable reasons for alarm in the wake of Russia’s actions and the supine Western response. In this context, Vladimir Putin’s speech to the Duma of March 18, 2014 represented a landmine under the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all five Central Asian states with the threat of Russian military action should they somehow threaten the dignity and honor of Russians who are citizens in their states." (my emphasis)

"Kazakhstan, which had previously boasted the most dynamic economic outlook in the region, seems especially vulnerable to continued Russian economic myopia. Not only does a weakening ruble continue to threaten Kazakhstan’s economy, but the Moscow-led counter-sanctions also present a significant risk to sustained growth. As one economic analyst told The Astana Times, “Russian counter-sanctions in food products can be expected to, on balance, have an overwhelmingly negative overall impact on Kazakhstan through potential food price inflation and domestic supply risks[.]” It’s small wonder Kazakhstan has been one of the most vocal nations calling for an end to all post-Crimea sanctions." (Casey Michel October 02, 2014)

Kazakhstan

"Furthermore, "Not only has Moscow’s decision-making [regarding Ukraine] continued to erode its own economic salience, but, for those most dependent on a healthy Russian economy – in Astana, in Bishkek – the fiscal realities of a Russian partnership seem ready to continue their downward trend for the foreseeable future." (my emphasis) (Casey Michel)

As with Ukraine, "Vladimir Putin made ominous comments on Kazakhstan's statehood at the Seliger Youth Forum last month"  (Casy Michel The Moscow Times September 16, 2014) It would therefore seems that Putin's dream about a Eurasian Economic Community, a counter economic block to the EU, is rapidly evaporating. Putin's fine words viz. "that the Russian economy will grow despite sanctions", simply does not "butter any parsnips". But for how long will these sanctions last?

It is interesting to note that, "EU diplomats said that countries with close ties to Russia such as Italy, Austria and Finland are reluctant to implement the new sanctions. German Chancellor Angela Merkel called for the sanctions to go ahead, adding that "they could always be suspended at a later date (my emphasis) if there was progress towards a peace plan for Ukraine." What is even more interesting is that Italian Foreign Minister Federica Mogherini, who has been chosen to be the EU's new foreign policy chief, told reporters in Brussels that "Some countries are asking for time", declining to say who those countries were. "Unity in this is absolutely crucial and strategic," she said. (Reuters 10 September 2014)

What is rather interesting about both Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini is that both were active participants in the communist parties in their respective countries.

Federica Mogherini

Mogherini was a member of the Italian Communist Youth Federation from 1988,  and in 1996 she joined the Youth Left after the dissolution of theItalian Communist Party and its transformation into a social-democratic party. Thus, her appointment [as the EU's new foreign policy chief] has proved extremely controversial because she and the Italian government were seen in many quarters as too sympathetic to Moscow, and French newspaper, 'Le Monde' has described the appointment as "a sad day for Europe".

Just recently the 'fragrant' Mogherini, facing European Parliament lawmakers in a confirmation hearing (06 October 2014), and asked how she would deal with the Russian "bear" -- often used as diplomatic shorthand for a powerful and unpredictable Moscow, she responded,

"I do not have much experience of dealing with bears," Mogherini said, suggesting her   colleagues from countries closer to Russia might be better placed to answer the question.
"However, I would say we need a mix of assertiveness and diplomacy... the balance would depend on the reaction of the bear."

Angela Merkel and Putin

 Merkel was "a former member of the East German Communist Party who functioned as a mid-level propaganda commissar for the Free German Youth, that is, the young Communists. She and the then-KGB operative Putin, who is fluent in German, were active in East Germany at the same time. Whether they met or worked together, [we simply do not know], but they were both in the same line of work" (M.E. Synon  3 July 2014)

It should always be borne in mind that when Merkel advocates maintaining sanctions  against Russia (October 3 2014), nonetheless Putin has more than enough supporters in Germany to counteract her stance. As Clemens Wergin reported in May of this year, "..an investigative report by the newspaper Welt am Sonntag revealed how a shady network of Russia supporters has shaped public discourse in Germany." These 'shady' supporters are not only German industrialists but also German politicians and political parties. Why? Because Putin "[is] leaving Germany’s factories in a worse state than anyone imagined." (Peter Spence 23 Sept 2014)

Bearing all this in mind, can we really say that Putin is "putting on a brave face", or does he believe that his "friends" in the EU will soon begin to clamour for the suspension of the sanctions against Russia. With the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini at the helm of  the EU's foreign policy, and Merkel worrying about both the outcome of the upcoming German Federal elections and the growing parlous state of the German economy (Mike Bird Oct 7 2014), 

Putin may, indeed, be in a much stronger position regarding the suspension of EU sanctions thanks to Mogherini and Merkel. Added to which, the ISIS situation in the Middle East, coupled with the global ebola scare, is pushing the Ukrainian invasion by Russia onto the diplomatic back-burner, so to speak. The impending outcome of the German federal elections has, indeed, become critical for Poroshenko. Will Angela Merkel still be in power?