Putin. Once a KGB agent, always a KGB agent.

Nadia Kasakova (left), Russia oil and gas expert, in her recent article about the Russian economy, says the following;

"Russia's official macro statistics for February (just published by the economy ministry) look either good or bad, depending on which set of numbers you focus on. 

But whichever way you slice it, they still paint a picture of a struggling, export-driven, high-inflation economy." (Saxo Group : 30 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

And John Simpson (right), writing in the New Statesman yesterday had this to say about Putin;

"Putin is, in person, a very different man from the swaggering, macho public image. On each of the three occasions when I’ve talked to him, I have found him polite and pleasant and certainly not domineering. The three occasions could have been four, except that when I went to film at the mayoral office in St Petersburg where he worked in 1991, he didn’t seem important enough to interview: mea maxima culpa. He has been phenomenally successful ever since; he is the most successful leader in Russia since Stalin. But does that make his position safe?" (New Statesman : 30 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

It is difficult to imagine that a 'polite and pleasant .... non-domineering' person can bring a country such as Russia to its economic knees. Nor can one imagine that such a person would intentionally start a war in Chechnya or Ukraine.

Yet this is what Putin has done. And to simply argue that these actions of Putin have primarily been precipitated by his desire,

" ... to use every threat, every trick and every weapon in a disturbingly large arsenal in order to protect himself." (ibid New Statesman) (my emphasis) seems rather naive.

What John Simpson illustrates is the extent to which the propaganda machine and the KGB-schooled 'charm offensive' of Putin has, indeed, succeeded in 'pulling the wool over the eyes' of many commentators and political pundits in the West.

Many Western commentators and political pundits seem to have a disturbing 'blind-spot' about the central role that Putin's training as a KGB agent plays in his decision-making.

"His KGB training requires him to double down, fight his way out, turn up the pressure, never admit, never retreat. He will continue his support of his proxies in east Ukraine and hope that the West’s attention span will be short." (Paul Roderick Gregory : Forbes : 7/21/2014) (my emphasis)

 It is for this reason that, as Tomas Hirst reports,

"Russia will not negotiate delaying repayment over its $3 billion (£2 billion) loan to Ukraine that is due in December." (Business Insider UK : Mar. 27, 2015) (my emphasis)

Nor will he adhere to the Minsk2 'ceasefire' and stop supplying his proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine with heavy weaponry.

As reported yesterday by Damien Sharkov,

"22 Russian tanks crossed into Ukraine’s separatist-held eastern territories over the weekend, as pro-Moscow forces continue to seep into Ukraine’s war-stricken Donetsk and Luhansk regions, Donetsk’s local pro-government officials reported yesterday." (Newsweek : 30/3/15)

Furthermore that,

"Russia is frequently forced to deny that it is sending military equipment or personnel to Ukraine, despite evidence that they are. Rebel leader Alexander Zaharchenko estimated in August that there are as many as 4,000 Russian soldiers fighting under him in Donetsk, however added that they were there on a voluntary basis, out of personal solidarity for the pro-Russian cause. (ibid Newsweek) (my emphasis)

And just as he is ramping up his forces for their impending assault on Mariupol,

"Kremlin critic Ilya Ponomaryov (left) said on Wednesday he was under pressure from state authorities not to return to Russia after reports that the country's prosecutors asked parliament to lift his immunity from prosecution as a lawmaker.

Opposition members accuse the Kremlin of persecuting critics of President Vladimir Putin and say the former Soviet spy holds political responsibility for the campaign that culminated in the Feb.27 gunning down of senior opposition leader Boris Nemtsov." (Reuters (MailOnline): 25 March 2015) (my emphasis)

Oleg Kalugin (right) best  sums up this current strategy of Putin as follows;

"Nikolai Patrushev was my subordinate for years in Leningrad. One day he brought a report about one dissident in his district and said, We must take care of him, maybe arrest him. I said, Why? Give me the case. I read the file of this man, and it showed that he was honest about the lack of food, long lines you have to stand in for food, the bureaucracy of the Soviet party and government institutions. When Patrushev brought it, I said, Why do we have to put him in jail? What is this case? Patrushevs first desire was to put the guy in jail because he would spread his discontent and unhappiness among his friends and colleagues and that was dangerous."(Foreign Policy : July 25, 2007) my emphasis)

Recently, in his first foreign policy speech in a month, Putin stated that,

" ...... “the West” is encroaching on Russia and fomenting internal unrest, in his first foreign policy speech in a month.”. (Andrew Rettman : EU Observer : Brussels, 27. March, 2015) (my emphasis)

This speech, delivered to the internal intelligence service, the FSB, last Thursday (26 March), mirrors "Patruschev's desire to jail a dissident simply to prevent him spreading discontent and unhappiness among his friends and colleagues".

Putin is not playing 'find the pea', as John Simpson suggests. Putin is simply expressing in his actions the KGB training that he has received.

(to be continued)

Putin's looming offensive against Mariupol

In July, 2014, just after the downing of flight MH17 by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, Matt Chorley reported that,
 
"Vladimir Putin has been branded a ‘thug’ and a ‘liar’ by one of Britain’s top diplomats as the European Union turned the screw on Russia's banks, arms traders and energy firms.

Sir Peter Westmacott, (left) the UK ambassador to the US, said Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine was starting to look like ‘the wrong call’ and the West’s firm response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines plane was starting to have an impact." (Mail Online : 29 July 2014) (my emphasis)

And then earlier this month Putin himself admits that he is, indeed, a liar. His invasion and annexing of Ukrainian Crimea was planned months ahead before it actually happened, thus giving the lie to his constant mantra that he invaded Ukrainian Crimea to 'protect' Russian speaking Crimeans.

Putin, however, is not the only one who is 'economical with the truth'. OSCE monitors are, as I write, being denied access to border crossings controlled by Putin's Generals, his proxy rebels, and his soldiers in eastern Ukraine. As reported by BBC News,

"Kiev accuses Moscow of continuing to supply rebels with weapons and says that control of the border is crucial for success of the truce" ( BBC News : 29 March 2015) (my emphasis)

What is more disconcerting is that in his first foreign policy speech in a month, Putin stated that,

" ...... “the West” is encroaching on Russia and fomenting internal unrest, in his first foreign policy speech in a month.
He told a meeting of his internal intelligence service, the FSB, on Thursday (26 March), that “they are using their entire arsenal of means for the so-called deterrence of Russia: from attempts at political isolation and economic pressure, to large-scale information war and special services operations”. (Andrew Rettman : EU Observer : Brussels, 27. March, 2015) (my emphasis)

That this speech was given to his internal intelligence service, the FSB,  should give us pause for concern.

Andrew Rettman further reports that,

“Moscow is preparing the world for another offensive. The objectives are straightforward - to justify the offensive and to blame Ukraine for violating Minsk 2”, Roman Sohn, a Ukrainian activist, told EUobserver." (my emphasis)

The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, (left) noted in an op-ed in Ukrainian media last week that: “Mariupol would be an important step to make a frozen separatist-occupied Donbas [in east Ukraine] economically viable”.(my emphasis)

The people of Mariupol are preparing themselves for the looming invasion of Putin's forces against this city.

As reported by the OSCE, the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is been broken by both the Ukrainian army and Putin's rebels and Russian soldiers.

"On 27 March, the SMM observed from an observation point in the vicinity of Berdianske (government-controlled, 18km east of Mariupol) escalating fighting in Shyrokyne (“Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled, 20km east of Mariupol, 102 km south of Donetsk) counting over 225 mortar shells from 14:40hrs to 17:15hrs. The shelling had started only a few hours following an SMM visit to the “DPR” “command” in Shyrokyne.

From its position the SMM estimated that the shells were fired from a position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located in Berdianske. The SMM assessed that the majority of these outgoing shells impacted on the southern part of the Shyrokyne village, controlled by “DPR”. About 20 mortar shells were observed to have been fired back from the area controlled by “DPR”.

Is it any wonder that the citizens of Mariupol are now on tenterhooks?

As noted by Andrew Rettman,

"Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said “the West” is encroaching on Russia and fomenting internal unrest, in his first foreign policy speech in a month.
...............................
“The situation … will not change for the better if we succumb and yield at every step. It will only change for the better if we become stronger”, he added." (my emphasis)

Putin needs a war to deflect the gaze of the Russian people away from the accelerating economic deprivations that they are suffering from because of the falling price of oil, the depreciated rouble, and Western sanctions.

The EU leaders will be meeting on the 27th April to discuss further aid to Ukraine. Will Putin dare to invade Mariupol before then?

(to be continued)

Putin protecting 'corruption' in Russia

Whilst on Tuesday the Russian Parliament debated reinstating Putin's right to send troops into Ukraine, (Anna Mostovych : Euromaidan Press : 2015/03/24) and the stealth manouvering of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers during this 'ceasefire' continues in eastern Ukraine, attention has been focussed on the Ukrainian economy and the aid that it will require to prevent a disastrous collapse.

Recently, as reported by Oleg Varfolomeyev, Ukraine will be receiving a package of loans that will help to stabilise its economy.

This package includes:

" With the new loan from the IMF, a total assistance package for Ukraine is likely to reach $40 billion over four years, IMF head Christine Lagarde (left) said (Imf.org, February 12). The package is to include 2.1 billion euros ($2.4 billion) from the European Union; $2 billion in loan guarantees from the United States; several billion dollars a year from the World Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the European Investment Bank; as well as hundreds of millions of dollars from the governments of Canada, Japan, Switzerland and possibly several other rich countries." (Jamestown Foundation : February 27, 2015) 

The IMF, US,  and the EU are demanding of the Ukrainian government that they implement stringent economic measures, including the call of Maidan that 'corruption' be rooted out from within the Ukrainian beaurocracy, government, and business.

Ukraine is beginning to tackle the difficult task of rooting out corruption, as illustrated by the public arrest on charges of  'high-level' corruption of,

"...the head of Ukraine's state emergencies service, Serhiy Bochkovsky, and his deputy Vasyl Stoyetsky." (BBC News : 25 March 2015)

Furthermore, the wings of Ukrainian oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky (right) has been cut. He is no longer governor of the Dnipropetrovsk region, and has been replaced by Valentyn Reznichenko (below left).

As reported by the BBC,

"Mr Kolomoisky was reportedly unhappy after parliament passed legislation aimed at weakening his influence." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Interior Minister Arsen Avakov (right) also stated that,

"... he was also dismissing all regional heads of the state emergencies service, as they were suspected of involvement in a corrupt scheme that had diverted money offshore." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

 And whilst Ukraine is getting to grips with its rampant corruption problem,

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has signed into law a bill slashing fines for giving and receiving bribes, in a reduction of corruption penalties that a Kremlin envoy dismissed as rarely being honored anyway." (Moscow Times : Mar. 10 2015)

Secondly,

"An initiative by anti-corruption campaigner Alexei Navalny (right) to battle graft among [Russian] government officials prompted strong objections from officials themselves Monday." (The Moscow Times : Feb. 09 2015) (my emphasis)

At a meeting, spearheaded by an intergovernmental working group of Russian government officials, Navalny's proposal that,

"[the Russian government] ratify the United Nations Convention Against Corruption, which would make "illegal enrichment" by government officials a criminal offense and leave officials who cannot account for the source of their wealth open to prosecution", (ibid The Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

was thrown out.

The reason for it being thrown out, as 'explained' by Mikhail Fedotov (left), head of the Kremlin's human rights council,

"The introduction of this legislation will put us on the path to a new 1937. Only it won't be about counterrevolutionary activities, but anti-corruption activities," (ibid The Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

Even more bizarrely,

"Deputy Interior Minister Igor Zubov (right) argued that all "color revolutions" — popular uprisings in ex-Soviet countries that the Kremlin has repeatedly claimed are funded and orchestrated by foreign governments — had begun with such fights against corruption, Vedomosti reported." (ibid The Moscow Times) (my emphasis)

Valentina Matviyenko rather says it all about Putin's protection of the rampant corruption in Russia.

"A senior Russian politician, Federation Council speaker Valentina Matviyenko (left), spoke scathingly about Ukraine's "war of the oligarchs" on Wednesday.
"This situation shows that Ukraine has no statehood and is not a sovereign state", she said. (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Indirectly the EU is, in fact, targetting Russian corruption.

"The EU has visa bans and asset freezes in place targeting 150 individuals, including high-ranking Russians, and 37 entities such as banks, companies and rebel groups." (Lorne Cook, The Associated Press (in Military Times) : March 19, 2015) (my emphasis)

To this we can add the sanctions-list of targetted Russian individuals by the US.

As the Minsk2 'ceasefire' continues to be broken by Putin, it is expected that yet more 'corrupt' Russian officials will be targeted for sanctions by the US and the EU.

(to be continued)