The countdown for Putin has begun

The Progozhin political earthquake that struck Putin over the last week-end continues to have political aftershocks in the Kremlin amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.

As Anshel Pfeffer (left) wrote,

"Prigozhin accused a "clan of oligarchs" of starting the war for their benefit, so they could pillage Ukraine and said, sarcastically, that the "demilitarization" and "de-Nazification" of Ukraine were "pretty stories." (Haaretz : 24 June 2023) (my emphasis)

More critically, Pfeffer asks,

"But the more immediate question is: Whom will the Russian people believe now? [Putin or Prigozhin?] (ibid Anshel Pfeffer)

As recently reported by Jeremy Bowen (right),

"The drama over the border in Russia has hardened the view in Kyiv that Mr Putin's time as Russia's president is coming to an end.

"I think the countdown has started," said Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser." (BBC News : 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 28 June 2023 : YouTube

Richard Ashmore also writes that,

"Vladimir Putin is “bitter and “disenchanted” like “Hitler and Saddam Hussein” in the final moments of their rule and could be on the brink of losing power, a defence expert claims. Echoing some of the worst dictators in history, the Russian despot will be “fuming” after the recent rebellion by Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin exposed his shaky grasp on rule." (Express : 27 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'bitterness and disenchantment' is best illustrated by the recent cruel and callous bombing of a pizza restaurant in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk by Putin's forces.

As reported by Ryan Merrifield and Rachel Hagan,

"At least eight people are dead, including three children, while dozens more have been injured after a Russian missile strike hit a restaurant in Ukraine, Kyiv officials have said.

It's feared more casualties are trapped in the rubble and debris following the attack in Kramatorsk.

It's understood the popular Ria Lounge restaurant was hit, which was "packed" with volunteers, soldiers and journalists at the time of the attack." (The Mirror : 27 June 2027) (my emphasis)

Sunita Patel-Carstairs: Sky News: 28 June 2023 & Instagram: 28 June 2023

Sky News : 28 June 2023 

And against the backdrop of this criminal attack against civilians by Putin's forces, Mike Stone (left) reports that,

"The United States will provide Kyiv with a new military package worth up to $500 million, the Pentagon said on Tuesday, in a show of support for Ukraine's fight against Russia as Moscow deals with the aftermath of a mutiny by mercenary fighters.

The package will include ground vehicles including Bradley fighting vehicles and Stryker armored personnel carriers, and munitions for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, according to a statement from the Pentagon." (Reuters:27 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Ukrinform,

"NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that the Alliance must not underestimate Russia despite the recent events and stressed the importance of providing further support to Ukraine.
...
“We all saw the events in Russia over the last days.  These are internal Russian matters. But what is clear is that President Putin’s illegal war against Ukraine has deepened divisions, and created new tensions in Russia. At the same time, we must not underestimate Russia. So it is even more important that we continue to provide Ukraine with our support. And I expect that our Summit in Vilnius will send a clear message of our commitment,” Stoltenberg said."  (Ukrinform : 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Perhaps even more disconcerting for Putin, besides the reaffirmation by Stoltenberg of NATO's commitment  to continue to support Ukraine in its war against Putin, is the announcement by China’s envoy to the European Union (EU), Fu Cong (left), that,

"In an interview with Al Jazeera, China’s envoy to the European Union (EU), Fu Cong, suggested that China supports Ukraine’s goal of restoring its territorial integrity.

Fu answered “I don’t see why not” when questioned about whether he supported Ukraine’s objectives of restoring its borders as they were in 1991.

This includes the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia forcibly annexed from Ukraine back in 2014." (Yen Zhi Yi: Mothership News: 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)

As Richard Ashmore wrote,

"Vladimir Putin is “bitter and “disenchanted” like “Hitler and Saddam Hussein” in the final moments of their rule" (ibid Richard Ashmore )

The countdown for Putin, as pointed out by Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky's closest adviser, has begun. 

UPDATE 1 : 07.14 June 29 2023

Interviewed by Mika Brzezinski (left) on MSNBC (28 June 2023)  Anthony Blinken, US Secretary of State, said,

"This is, and remains in many ways, an extraordinary moment because I think it further revealed the failure of Russia's war in Ukraine, both abroad and also at home.

And we're seeing some cracks emerge not just in what it's doing on the ground in Ukraine but, .. if you put this in perspective it's really extraordinary.
....
Across the board this has been a failure for Putin and we're now seeing internal cracks emerge, not just the external ones in terms of his prosecution of the war."  (MSNBC : 28 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Interview of Anthony Blinken by Mika Brzezinski (28 June 2023)

 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's dream of "Novorossiya" is now crumbling in his hands.

Denys Shmyhal (left), the prime minister of Ukraine, succinctly defines the war that Ukraine is currently waging against Putin's Russia.

In an article for Politico he states that,

"What will Ukraine’s victory in this war look like?

We often hear this question from our international partners. 

However, Ukraine is fighting an existential war — a war for survival. 

Therefore, Russia’s aggression against our country is a zero-sum game. Russia wants to destroy Ukraine; Ukraine wants to survive. And under these circumstances, it’s difficult to find compromise." (Politico : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)

He goes on to state that,

"Today, for Ukraine, a stable and just peace is impossible without the implementation of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ten-point peace plan, restoring the country’s territorial integrity, establishing justice and building a new European security architecture." (ibid Politico)

We now learn from Patrick Wintour (right) that,

"The UK foreign secretary, James Cleverly, has said all Nato allies are backing a plan to give Ukraine a fast track to Nato membership of the kind offered to Sweden and Finland earlier this year." (The Guardian : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)

                                     

Sky News : 21 June 2023

However, 

"The French foreign minister, Catherine Colonna (left), was more cautious [ about fast-tracking Ukraine's membership of NATO] but said circumstances had changed since 2008 when Ukraine was last offered Nato membership on the condition it met the terms set out in an action plan." (ibid Patrick Wintour)

As Henry Samuel further reports,

"Paris considers pushing Ukraine’s membership as a “security guarantee” in its own right, since it could discourage Russia from continuing the war or, should the conflict come to an end, prevent any further aggression." (The Telegraph : 20 June 2023) (my emphasis)

This 'mealy-mouthed' approach of Macron is no doubt influenced by the fact that Putin is once again 'spitting nuclear nails' at the 'fast-tracking' on Ukraine into NATO.

Hindustan Times : 20 June 2023 : YouTube

 

As also reported by Max Parry,

"President Zelensky said: “Intelligence has received information that Russia is considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant - a terrorist act with a release of radiation.”

He added: “They have prepared everything for this.” (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)

More ominously, as reported by Aliss Higham and Alex Shipman,

"Vladimir Putin has warned new nuclear warheads will be ready use in the near future as Ukraine continues to advance in key areas.
...

Russians living in occupied Crimea have been told to flee the area after Vladimir Putin recently escalated nuclear tensions by saying nuclear warheads are ready for use.

Oleksiy Danilov (right), Kyiv’s national security and defence council (NSDC) secretary, has advised any Russians living [in Crimea]  to flee to their home country, saying they are not permitted refuge in Ukraine." (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Perhaps most disconcerting of all, Joel Day reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is said to suffer from multiple mental and physical issues, with one alarming recent episode reportedly experienced by his closest guards.
...
It was the first report of its kind: Vladimir Putin had suffered a nervous breakdown.
...
Added to the difficulties around Russia's offensive is Putin's deteriorating health. The Russian President is believed to be undergoing chemotherapy treatment for cancer." (Express : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Further taxing Putin's mind, Philip Andrew Churm (right) reports that,

"Diplomats and business leaders from dozens of countries met in London on Wednesday to drum up funds to help rebuild Ukraine.

The cost of reconstruction is estimated by the World Bank at over €366bn in the long-term with €12.8bn in immediate aid but the figure is rising alongside the human toll of the 16-month war.
...
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is due to announce a new US assistance package at the Ukraine Recovery Conference, which is both a fundraising forum and a message to Russia that Ukraine’s allies are in it for the long haul." (EuroNews : 21 June 2023) (my emphasis)

EuroNews : 21 June 2023

Putin's "Novorossiya" dream that he conceived of shortly before invading Ukraine's Crimea in 2014 is now hanging by a very very slender thread, and he is FULLY aware of it.

 As reported by Nick Paton Walsh,

"Almost as if to answer Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s statement the counteroffensive is “slower” than some might have imagined, a pinpoint strike hit a key pair of bridges for Russia’s occupation. The Chonhar bridges are both rail and road crossings, and head from the northeast of occupied Crimea to Ukraine’s main target in this counteroffensive: occupied Zaporizhzhia region.
...
Alexei Zhivoff, a Russian military blogger, said Thursday the Chonhar bridge was more a “land corridor”, and carried 70% of the military and civilian traffic to and from Crimea. He added the blast showed the area was easily within reach of NATO-supplied missiles and that Russian air defences were inadequate." (CNN : 22 June 2023) (my emphasis)

 Times Radio : 23 June 2023 : YouTube

Putin's dream of "Novorossiya" is now crumbling in his hands.  

IMPORTANT UPDATE 07.04 on 24 JUNE 2023

One could not have imagined the speed with which Putin's hold on power is slipping fast from his hands!

As reported by Christy Cooney & Rebecca Seales,

"The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary [Yevgeny Prigozhin (left)] group has vowed to "go all the way" to topple Russia's military leadership, hours after the Kremlin accused him of "armed rebellion". (BBC News :24 June 2023) (my emphasis)

More significantly, Putin's FSB boss and current close confidant, Nikolai Patrushev  now finds himself next-in-line for the wrath of Prigozhin.

 

CNN : 24 June 2023: YouTube

"Russian state media reported that the FSB (headed by Nikolai Patrushev (right)) , Russia's security service, has opened a criminal case against Mr Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion" and attempting to start armed civil conflict in Russia.
...
The FSB also reportedly called on Wagner fighters to disobey his orders and to take steps to apprehend him. (ibid Christy Cooney & Rebecca Seales)

 This totally fluid situation within Putin's Kremlin and his "Command and Control" centre has the international community watching with deep concern.

Hindustan Times : 24 May 2023 : YouTube

For Zelensky and the Army of Ukraine, these developments could not have come at a better time as Putin's "Command and Control" Generals now find themselves having to deal with Yevgeny Prigozhin's army at the expense of mounting a defence against the imminent punch of Zelensky's final counter-offensive.

We now wait to see what is going to happen.

 IMPORTANT UPDATE 08.33 on 26 JUNE 2023 

The swift "backtracking" by Putin of his criminal case against Mr Prigozhin, accusing him of "calling for an armed rebellion", has left many international observers scratching their 'political heads'. 

As reported by Steve Rosenberg,

"After a weekend of mayhem, I'm beginning to understand why Russia's national symbol is the double-headed eagle: two heads staring in opposite directions.

First, Yevgeny Prigozhin declares he's ready to "go all the way" in his mutiny against the Russian military. Then he makes a sudden U-turn and orders his Wagner fighters back to base." (BBC News : 26 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"In a TV address, President Vladimir Putin declares the rebellion "a criminal adventure… a grievous crime… treason… blackmail and terrorism." Yet just a few hours later, as part of an agreement with Prigozhin, it's revealed that all criminal charges against the Wagner leader are being dropped." (ibid Steve Rosenberg) (my emphasis)

Fox News : 25 June 2023

As reported by John Bacon and David Jackson,

"This is just the latest chapter in a book of failure that Putin has written for himself and for  Russia," Blinken [US Secretary of State (left)] said on NBC News' "Meet the Press." "Economically, militarily, its standing in the world – all of those things have plummeted." (USA Today : 25 June 2023) (my emphasis)

As I stated (cf above),

"Putin's dream of "Novorossiya" is now crumbling in his hands. 

 

(to be continued)

Putin's 'nuclear' threats should no longer be viewed simply as 'bluster'.

The African delegation for 'peace', headed by South Africa's president Cyril Ramaphosa, met yesterday with Ukraine's President Zelensky (left).

As reported by BBC News,

"South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called for de-escalation on both sides and negotiations for peace.

"We came here to listen and recognize what the people of Ukraine have gone through," he said." (BBC News : 17 June 2023) (my emphasis)

 

BBC News : 17 June 2023

BBC News, however, further reports that,

"But Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky said instead of making diplomatic overtures to Russia it should be frozen out diplomatically to send a message that the international community condemned its invasion.

Kyiv would not enter negotiations with Moscow while it still occupied Ukrainian territory, Mr Zelensky said." (ibid BBC News) 

And as Cyril Ramaphosa was calling for a de-escalation in Putin's war with Ukraine Putin, however, decided to send a message to the African delegation in Kiev by targeting Kiev with missiles.

As reported by Alexandra Sharp (left),

"The delegation’s arrival in the Ukrainian capital was met with a missile barrage from Russia that injured at least four people, including a child. Reuters reported seeing the African heads of state fleeing to a nearby hotel to use its air-raid shelter, though a spokesperson for Ramaphosa later tweeted that they “didn’t hear the sirens or explosions” and that the peace mission was “proceeding as planned.” (Foreign Policy : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis)

It is rather interesting to note that the South African delegation “didn’t hear the sirens or explosions”.

Furthermore, as Tom Watling (right) reports,

"No such attacks were carried out by Russia when the Chinese envoy Li Hui visited Kyiv in May, not in the least because Putin is increasingly reliant on his communist partner, and this latest assault shows that the autocrat [Putin] has “zero respect” for the African delegation and their peace proposal, the former [US] ambassador added. " (Express : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis)

But there was another dimension to this African delegation's visit to Kiev.

Besides Cyril Ramaphosa speaking about "de-escalation" and "peace", Sky News also reports that,

"Peace is not the only matter on the agenda for the African leaders, however.

Officials also want to examine how Russia can be paid for fertiliser exports it desperately needs - despite sanctions against Moscow.

They are also looking at getting more vital grain shipments out of Ukraine.

Mr Ramaphosa said after his meeting with Mr Zelenskyy that there should be an opening up of logistics for both grain and fertiliser." (Sky News : 17 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Sky News : 17 June 2023

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that,

"South Africa, Senegal and Uganda have avoided censuring Moscow for the conflict, while Egypt, Zambia and Comoros voted against Russia last year in a UN General Assembly resolution condemning Moscow's invasion." (ibid Sky News)

Besides bombing Kiev whilst Cyril Ramaphosa and the African delegation were in Kiev Putin has, more ominously and vigorously, threatened to unleash a "nuclear" strike against Ukraine.

As reported by  Andrew Osborn,

"President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that his deployment of tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus, something he confirmed for the first time had already happened, was a reminder to the West that it could not inflict a strategic defeat on Russia.
...
"Just talking about this (the potential use of nuclear weapons) lowers the nuclear threshold. We have more than NATO countries and they want to reduce our numbers. Screw them," said Putin." (Reuters : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis) 

Erin Burnett :CNN : 17 June 2023

Some might argue that Putin's current threat about using his nukes now based in Belarus is simply 'bluster'

However, as reported by Kate Whitfield (left),

"Rampant speculation about the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has persisted for months, with some sources now claiming his closest allies are getting nervous about his imminent demise.
...
The intelligence, leaked from the Pentagon, marked one of the most serious leaks of US intel in recent years.
...
It claimed that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were behind the plot to “sabotage” Putin’s war effort. (Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'nuclear' threats should no longer simply be viewed as 'bluster'. 

UPDATE 1: 18 June 2023 

Yesterday the African Delegation, headed South African president Cyril Ramaphosa, met with Putin.

As reported by the Associated Press (reporting by NBC News),

"The African leaders then traveled [from Kiev] to St. Petersburg on Saturday to meet with Putin who was attending Russia’s showpiece international economic forum.
...
Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (left) said after the three-hour meeting that the Africans’ peace plan consisted of 10 elements, but “was not formulated on paper.” (NBC News (Associated Press) : 17 June 2023) (my emphasis)

The Associated Press go on to report that,

“The peace initiative proposed by African countries is very difficult to implement, difficult to compare positions,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. But ”President Putin has shown interest in considering it.” (ibid Associated Press)

Hindustan Times : 18 June 2023 : YouTube 

Putin's mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (right), rather let the 'cat out of the bag' regarding Putin's dismissive attitude towards the African delegation's 'peace' proposals when he said that these proposals are "difficult to compare positions", and that "Putin has shown interest in considering it".

Let us recall Putin's recent stance regarding his use of nuclear weapons.

"Just talking about this (the potential use of nuclear weapons) lowers the nuclear threshold. We have more than NATO countries and they want to reduce our numbers. Screw them," said Putin." (ibid Andrew Osborn )  

In so many words, Putin showing "interest only" in the African delegation's 'peace' proposals could be read as "Screw your 'peace' proposals!"

 

(to be continued)

Will Putin's 'siloviki' now act to depose him?

 Brad Lendon (left) from CNN reports that,

" As the early stages of Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russian invaders is unfolding on the battlefield, hundreds of warplanes from some of Kyiv’s biggest supporters are in the skies over Germany as NATO holds its largest aerial war games ever.

“Air Defender 2023” is bringing together 250 warplanes – including 190 fighter jets – and 10,000 troops in drills designed to boost the alliance’s preparedness and ability “to protect against aircraft, drones and missile attacks on cities and critical infrastructure,” according to a NATO press release." (CNN : 14 June 2023) (my emphasis)

CNN : 14 June 2023

As Amy Guttman (left) [US Ambassador to Germany] stated at the press conference,

"I would be pretty surprised if any world leader was not taking note of what this shows in terms of the spirit of this alliance, which means the strength of this alliance. And that includes Mr. Putin" (ibid Brad lendon) 

What is even more significant is the fact that,

"Alliance members are making plans to supply Ukraine with F-16 fighter jets of the same variety that are participating in the current war games." (ibid Brad lendon) (cf. also: blog entry Monday, 22 May 2023)

Furthermore, as reported by Sylvie Corbet,

"The leaders of France, Germany and Poland met in Paris Monday for talks focusing on
military support for Ukraine’s counteroffensive and future security guarantees to be given to the country, ahead of a NATO summit in July.
...
In a show of unity, the three leaders insisted they would continue to support Ukraine for as long as necessary.
...
He [Macron] promised to continue deliveries of weapons, ammunition and armored vehicles “over the coming days and weeks." (ABC News : 12 June 2023) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin was well aware of this formidable aerial war games of NATO, as well as the show of unity by France, Germany, and Poland.

In his recent comments about his war with Ukraine, Putin threatened to grab yet more land from Ukraine whilst, at the same time, offering 'peace talks' if the West desists from sending more arms to Ukraine.

As reported by the Associated Press (quoted by ABC News),

"Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday alternated threats of a new Russian offensive to grab more Ukrainian land with statements about the Kremlin's readiness for peace talks.
...
Putin said Moscow could respond to alleged Ukrainian incursions and shelling of Russia's border regions by carving out what he described as a “sanitary zone” to prevent Kyiv from launching such attacks.
...
The Russian leader said ending the hostilities in Ukraine depends on the United States. He argued that the fighting would end immediately if the U.S. and NATO stop providing Ukraine with weapons." (ABC News : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)  

UPDATE 1: 16 June 2023

 As reported by Victor Jack and Jacopo Barigazzi,

"Bulgaria’s new defense minister said the country is looking to step up its support for EU efforts to supply Ukraine with the ammunition it needs to continue fighting Moscow’s troops.
...
“We are very clearly aiming at joining this coalition,” Todor Tagarev told POLITICO in an interview. “I think we will be able to provide some of the required ammunition for Ukraine.” (Politico : 15 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin must be aware that he is "whistling in the wind" by saying that, "the fighting would end immediately if the U.S. and NATO stop providing Ukraine with weapons."

And as Putin changes his tone from "hawk" to "dove", Tom Watling reports that,

"Wagner Group financier and internally recognised war criminal Yevgeny Prigozhin (right) issued yet another rebuke of the Armed Forces of Russia stationed in Ukraine on Tuesday in what he claimed was merely his update on the ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives.
...
Russian forces are “not doing enough to fight back against” the rapidly advancing Ukrainian troops, the Wagner Group leader has claimed. As Russian President Vladimir Putin baselessly suggested during a meeting with military journalists on Tuesday that his forces had destroyed 160 Ukrainian tanks and 360 armoured vehicles since the beginning of the counter offensive, Yevgeny Prigozhin shrugged off the claims as inaccurate, saying Ukraine had suffered only “normal combat losses”. (Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no coincidence that, as reported by Kate Whitfield (left),

"Rampant speculation about the health of Russian President Vladimir Putin has persisted for months, with some sources now claiming his closest allies are getting nervous about his imminent demise.
...
The intelligence, leaked from the Pentagon, marked one of the most serious leaks of US intel in recent years.
...
It claimed that Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov were behind the plot to “sabotage” Putin’s war effort. (Express : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, we now learn from John Varga (right) that,

"The Chechen rebel leader [Ruslan Kutaev] pointed to the creation of private militias by Russian oligarchs as evidence that Kremlin elites were preparing for political turmoil and conflict.
...
Russia's defeat in Ukraine will spark vicious infighting between Kremlin elites that will plunge the country into a new civil war, according to a Chechen rebel leader. He also predicted that Chechens would rise up and overthrow their brutal President Ramzan Kadyrov and a new state unifying all the peoples of the Caucasus would emerge from the revolution's ashes." (Express : 11 June 2023) (my emphasis)

UPDATE 2: 16 June 2023

Perhaps more ominously, and underscoring the fact that his closest allies are getting nervous about Putin's imminent demise, Kate Whitfield reports that,

"Now, however, as the war rumbles on and speculation surrounding Putin’s ill health or a possible coup mounts, experts have said that Xi might be implementing further steps to pave the way for a continued partnership post-Putin.
...

“In spite of all the greetings to and from Putin that Xi and Mishustin (left) exchanged, the obvious question arises: Why was [Russian Prime Minister] Mishustin invited and not Putin? This cannot have gone down well with the Russian leader.”

Mr Åslund argues these recent events are "perhaps the best evidence we have that China may be looking beyond Putin and seeking to cultivate alternative relationships in Russia". (Express : 16 June 2023) (my emphasis).

Putin is, no doubt, aware that he is living on 'borrowed time'.

This may account for the fact that Putin is now relying on Lukashenko to come to his aid.

 As reported by Andrew Osborn,

"Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said on Tuesday that Russian tactical nuclear weapons would be physically deployed on the territory of Belarus "in several days" and that he had the facilities to host longer-range missiles too if ever needed.

Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that Russia, which will retain control of the tactical nuclear weapons, would start deploying them in close ally Belarus after special storage facilities to house them were made ready on July 7-8." (Reuters : 13 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Cocooned from the rest of the world in his bunker, his health failing, and his war with Ukraine crumbling in his hands; Putin has nowhere else to go.

Members of his 'siloviki' are well aware of the danger that Putin now presents.

The only way out for them is now to rid themselves of Putin.

 

(to be continued)

Putin is now at his most dangerous.

In the wake of the Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 (MH17/MAS17) that was shot down by Russian-controlled forces on 17 July 2014, while flying over eastern Ukraine, I wrote in my blog entry of 30/7/2014 that,

"Now six days ago, (25th July 2014) Alexander J. Motyl (left) posed the following question:

" Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will." (CNN : 25 July 2014) (my emphasis)

(CNN (Reuters video) : 25 July 2014)

Fast forward to 2023 and Alexander J Motyl's words written in July of 2014 now ring loudly from the past as Putin's forces blew up a part of the Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson.

As reported by Maroosha Muzaffar, Andy Gregory, Tara Cobham, and William Mata,

"Volodymyr Zelenskyy tells residents to evacuate as water gushes from destroyed Nova Kakhovka dam in Kherson near Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
...
The head of Ukraine’s Kherson region has said that the water will reach critical levels within five hours after a huge dam was blown up today near the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.

Ukrainian authorities have asked residents in flood-prone areas to evacuate as water gushes out from the destroyed Nova Khakova dam in the southern Kherson region." (The Independent : 6 June 2023) (my emphasis)

(BBC News : 6 June 2023)

NATO now finds itself in an awkward situation.

As reported by Alessandra Scotto di Santolo (left),

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the “outrageous act [of Russia blowing up the Nova Khakova dam in the southern Kherson region] demonstrates once again the brutality of Russia’s war in Ukraine.”
....
"The recent attack on civilians will be high on the agenda when NATO heads of state and governments meet in Vilnius next month. Ukraine's formal pathway to NATO membership will, at very least, be discussed.
....
[ ] there is a substantial risk that any overstepping of the lines might cause an escalation from Russia, given Putin would see this as legitimising his offensive.
...
"The West is facing the most unpredictable and delicate security environment since the Cold War. For this reason, we have seen a restricted response from NATO since the full-scale invasion started." (Express : 6 June 2023) (my emphasis)

(EU27 : 6 June 2023 : YouTube)

Besides the downing of  Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in 2014 (imp. cf: Hague Court : inquirer net: 6 June 2023) by Putin's then militia in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, let us also recall the cynical blowing up of Russian apartments in 1999 by the then FSB, when Putin was the head of the FSB. 

As I wrote in my blog entry (11 August 2016),

"As inevitably as the sun will rise to-morrow morning, Putin is repeating his pretext for escalating the war between Russia and Ukraine that he did when he was head of the FSB in 1999, and oversaw the Moscow apartment bombings that he used as a casus belli to start his war with Chechnya.

Let us for a moment remind ourselves that those 1999 apartment bombings in Moscow led to the deaths of 293, and injured more than 1000 people, whilst at the same time spreading a wave of fear across the country. (cf Wikipedia)

There is enough evidence that exposes the fact that these bombings were staged by the then FSB under Putin. (cf Wikipedia)" (blog entry

11 August 2016)

Just as Putin blamed the 1999 Moscow apartment bombings on Chechen operatives, we now have his media 'mouthpieces' in Moscow pushing a disinformation narrative that the Nova Kakhovka dam was destroyed by Ukraine itself.

(BBC News : 7 June 2023) and (CBS News : 6 June 2023)

In similar vein, we now also have none other than Putin's defence ministers pushing a disinformation narrative that,

"In a statement early Monday morning, the Ministry of Defence in Moscow claimed it had killed 250 Ukrainian soldiers and destroyed tanks - or if this was the long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Russia says it has thwarted a large Ukrainian attack in the eastern province of Donetsk, although it's not clear if this is the start of a long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive." (Euro News : 5 June 2023) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin and his generals, Matt Murphy (left) reports that,

"A fresh row has broken out between the Wagner Group and the Russian military, as long-simmering tension between the groups threatens to spill over.

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin dismissed Russia's claims to have inflicted heavy losses on Ukraine in the Donbas when Kyiv attempted offensive action.

Prigozhin said the claims were "simply wild and absurd science fiction". (BBC News : 6 June 2023) (my emphasis)

The international horror at what Putin and his generals have unleashed by blowing up the the Nova Kakhovka dam cannot be concealed.

Already there are growing 'political' fissures between Putin and his 'siloviki', and amongst the 'siloviki' themselves. 

ABC Net reports that,

"Russian mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin (left) says Kremlin factions are destroying the state by trying to sow discord between him and Chechen fighters.
...
He said that row had now been settled but infighting in the Kremlin had opened a Pandora's Box of rifts. (ABC Net : 3 June 2023) (my emphasis)

With the international fallout following the destruction of the Nova Kakhovka dam, the start of Ukraine's counter-offensive, and the accelerating infighting in the Kremlin; Putin is now at his most dangerous.

 

(to be continued)