Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 Finally the members of the European Parliament are beginning to realize that cowering before the dangerous and ruthless actions of Putin's military actions on the border of Ukraine, and in Ukraine's Crimea, has to come to an end.

As reported by UNIAN,

"The European Parliament on Thursday, April 29, adopted a tough resolution targeting Russia laying down harsh sanction measures in case Russian troops invade Ukraine.

The Resolution also addresses the case of opposition's Alexei Navalny and ammo depot explosions in the Czech Republic, Deutsche Welle reported.

EP says it remains highly concerned by the large Russian military build-up at the border with Ukraine and in the illegally occupied Autonomous Republic of Crimea, which the Russian Ministry of Defense declared to have come to an end." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis) 

Included in the adopted resolution are:

• .. "demands that Russia immediately end the practice of unjustified military build-ups targeted at threatening its neighbours."
• MEPs have also warned Russia of the "severe price" of an actual invasion of Ukraine, the move that would be in gross violation of international law.
• In such circumstances, "imports of oil and gas from Russia to the EU be immediately stopped, while Russia should be excluded from the SWIFT payment system, and all assets in the EU of oligarchs close to the Russian authorities and their families in the EU need to be frozen and their visas cancelled."
• MEPS have called to adopt an EU anti-corruption sanctions regime in order to complement the current EU Global Human Rights Sanctions Regime.
• The EP has demanded that the EU "should reduce its dependence on Russian energy", and urged the EU and member states to stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and to demand a stop to the construction of controversial nuclear power plants built by Rosatom. (ibid UNIAN 29/4/2021)
  

 Unlike previous EU resolutions targeting Putin's war with Ukraine, this resolution critically includes

•  The Resolution stresses that "friendly countries should step up their military support to Ukraine and their provision of defensive weapons, which is in line with Article 51 of the UN Charter that allows individual and collective self-defence."

This resolution, by calling for states to "stop the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, is finally giving the lie to Angela Merkel's and President of the EU Commission,Ursula von den Leyen's, continued assertion that Nord Stream2 is purely an economic contract between Putin and Germany, and not an attack on the economy of Ukraine.

And now, completely wrong-footing Putin, the Pope is willing to act as a mediator in talks between Zelensky and Putin to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Pope Francis is willing to mediate Volodymyr Zelensky's meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin, a Vatican diplomat says." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)

 Does Putin reject the Pope as a possible mediator between himself and Zelensky?

If so, how will this be viewed by his comrade in arms, Russian Orthodox Patriarch Vladimir Kirill?

 

As reported by the DW (Deutche Welle),

" Pope Francis and Patriarch Kirill exchanged kisses and embraced each other before sitting down smiling for the historic meeting at the airport in Havana on Friday.... "At last we meet. We are brothers," the pope said as the two church leaders met. "Clearly this meeting is God's will."

"Now things are easier," Kirill, 69, added." (DW : 12 February 2016) (my emphasis)

Will Russian Patriarch Kirill be willing to jeopardize the continuing brotherly relations between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Catholic Church by supporting Putin if he rejects the Pope's offer as a mediator between himself and Zelensky?

This is also the dilemma now facing Putin in light of the offer to act as a mediator between himself and Zelensky by Pope Francis.

What makes this dilemma of Putin even more difficult for him to resolve is the fact that,

" [Zelensky] invited his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, to hold talks in Donbas." (UNIAN: 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's response was,

"On April 22, 2021, Putin responded to the invitation by suggesting that Zelensky could discuss the Donbas issue with the "leaders" of the two self-proclaimed republics, the "LPR/DPR," adding that Moscow remained open for contact on any other issues." (ibid UNIAN)  

This cursory dismissal by Putin of  holding talks with Zelensky in the Donbas now leaves him with no alternative other than to also dismiss the offer of Pope Francis as a possible mediator between them.

 

One is somewhat reminded of Navalny's retort during his recent trial that,

 

"In his final statement before Judge Kurysheva Natalia left to consider a decision, Navalny launched a tirade against Putin, likening him to the foolish king in the children's tale "The Emperor's New Clothes."

"I would like to say that your king [Putin] is naked, and more than one little boy is shouting about it -- it is now millions of people who are already shouting about it. It is quite obvious. Twenty years of incompetent rule have come to this: there is a crown sliding from his ears," Navalny said of Putin.." (Anna Chernova, Sebastian Shukla and Angela Dewan : CNN : 29 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Putin's threatening military invasion of Ukraine, his dismissal of talks with Zelensky in the Donbas, his possible dismissal of Pope Francis as a mediator, and the strongest ever resolution against him from the European Parliament, supports the contention of Navalny that "there is a crown sliding from his ears".

 

Adding to which, the railing of his dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov,

 

" ....  [warning]  Ukrainian officials Wednesday that Moscow would not accept their push to revise a peace deal for eastern Ukraine.(Vladimir Isachenkov The Associated Press: Global News : 28 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 

further indicates that Putin is politically flailing to extricate himself from the international political fallout of his threatening to invade Ukraine by massing his army on Ukraine's border and in Ukraine's Crimea.

 

Zelensky should now politically tread cautiously in thinking that he can woo Putin by re-visiting the Minsk2 protocols.

 

 As reported by UNIAN,

 

"Spokesman for the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) Oleksiy Arestovych says the presidents of Ukraine and Russia, Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin, during a personal meeting may discuss a "revamp" for the Minsk agreements, in particular in the context of the banking system of the occupied territories of Donbas.

Arestovych added "there are many such clauses" and this, perhaps, would be one of the main issues of upgrading the Minsk agreements so that they can be implemented as such." (UNIAN : 29 April 2021)  (my emphasis)

Putin's mouthpiece, Sergey Lavrov, has already scuppered any such "revamp" by Zelensky.

 

Short of caving in on Putin's interpretation of Minsk2, Zelensky is on a political hiding to nothing in trying to "revamp" Minsk2.

 

 Zelensky should be careful not to squander his current political capital.

 

 

(to be continued)

Zelensky the actor is simply no Kennedy

Finally emerging from his Covid-19 bunker (cf: Aljazeera 17 June 2020 for details of bunker) to give his annual 'State of Russia' address, Putin threw down the gauntlet against US President Biden, the UK, the EU, and NATO, by declaring that,

"I hope no-one will cross Russia's red line. But in each case we are the ones who will decide where the red line is. Organizers of any provocation threatening our security will regret it" (Sky News AU)

This 'throwing down of a gauntlet' by Putin stems from the reactions of the West to his dangerous buildup of battle-ready troops on Ukraine's border, and in Ukraine's Crimea which he invaded and illegally annexed in 2014.

As reported by Reuters,

"Britain has significant concerns over the buildup of Russian forces on the Ukraine border and wants to de-escalate the situation, foreign minister Dominic Raab (left) said on Tuesday." (Reuters : 20 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the EU's top diplomat Josep Borrell (right), has said that,

" ..... no new economic sanctions or expulsions of Russian diplomats were planned for the time being, despite saying that the military build-up on Ukraine's borders was the largest ever. " (Reuters : 20 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves that, as DW (Deutsche Welle) earlier reported,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel had urged Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peskov said that Merkel expressed concerns, but "did not demand" the Kremlin to unwind its military buildup, which was an "internal affair." (DW: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

 And whilst the EU's Borrell is assuring Putin, like Angela Merkel before him, that Putin's troop buildup, and readiness to invade Ukraine, is really Putin's "internal affair", US President Biden is,

"....... considering sending missiles and other weapons to Ukraine, amid a buildup of more than 100,000 Russian troops along its eastern border and fears of an impending invasion.

Shipments of military aid have been discussed by Joe Biden’s administration, and could include anti-tank, anti-ship and anti-aircraft systems according to the Wall Street Journal." (Jamie Johnson: The Telegraph : 21 April 2021) (my emphasis) 

More significantly, Jamie Johnson further reports that,

"Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns (left) told Congress last week: “That buildup has reached the point where it could also provide the basis for a limited military incursion.

“It’s something not only the United States, but also our allies have to take very seriously.” (ibid Jamie Johnson) (my emphasis)

William Burns underscores the caution in interpreting Putin's military buildup on Ukraine's borders and in Ukraine's Crimea within the Russian military doctrine of "maskirovka" i.e. a Russian military doctrine developed from the start of the twentieth century. The doctrine covers a broad range of measures for military deception, from camouflage to denial and deception.(cf. Wikipedia)

However the effectiveness of this Russian military doctrine no longer holds water in this digital age.

You can no longer fool people with cardboard cutouts of tanks! 

Every maneuver you take can be finely scrutinized from above. It cannot be denied. Nor can you deceive people about your intentions. Massing troops at a border is simply massing troops at a border. Re-arranging the position of your military hardware is simply re-arranging the position of your military hardware. 

Putin has painted himself into a military corner, and he knows it!

And with more and more Russian's demonstrating and nipping at his heels over his treatment of Navalny, not to mention the dire economic state of the Russian economy and the stalled Nord Stream2 pipeline, Putin's attempt to use a 'maskirovka' strategy to mollify the Russian people is simply not working.

Putin is now teetering at the edge of plunging Russia into a war with Ukraine that will spiral into a war beyond Ukraine's borders.

Zelensky now stands where Kennedy stood as the Cuban missile crisis was set in motion by Khrushchev.

And Zelensky is simply no Kennedy.

(to be continued)

With "friends" like Merkel and Macron, does Zelensky really need Putin as an enemy?

 In 2015 (18/08/2015 10:49) I wrote that,

"The 'public' reason for Putin's recent visit to Ukrainian Crimea does not quite ring true. Let us cast our minds back to a few days ago.

• Putin held an “operative meeting” on August 12 with the members of the Russian Security Council about escalating violence in eastern Ukraine. (RFERL : Tuesday, August 18, 2015)
• The Kremlin said the focus of the meeting was on attacks on pro-Russian separatists as well as residents of eastern Ukraine... (ibid RFERL)
• Military authorities in Ukraine believe the number of Russian troops within and close to its borders has risen to more than 50,000, raising fears of a substantial escalation in the conflict raging in Ukraine's eastern regions. (Adam Nathan: The Independent : Sunday 16 August 2015)
• Ukrainian officials reported two civilian deaths on their side, in a suburb of Mariupol on the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Security and Defense Council also reported two troops killed and six injured overnight. (AP : Indian Express : Aug 18. 2015)
• The clashes, near the port of Mariupol in the south-east and at rebel-held Horlivka, further frayed an increasingly tenuous ceasefire as Ukraine prepared to mark its independence day next week. (ABC Australia : August 18, 2015)

With these current events in mind, it seems that Putin is now more determined than ever to obtain his land-bridge between Russia and Ukrainian Crimea. 

He is masking the 'true' reason for visit to Ukrainian Crimea, which is to ready his troops in Ukrainian Crimea to support his soldiers and rebel-proxies in eastern Ukraine during their final push towards Mariupol.

Indeed, it may be, "the stuttering economic development " of [Ukrainian Crimea now] under Moscow's rule that is compelling Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' to throw caution to the wind and simply invade Mariupol." (Blog Entry : 18 August 2015)

Putin is now finally throwing caution to the wind by staring into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine.

As reported by John Varga,

"Fears have been growing of an imminent invasion of the Donbas region by Russia, as it amasses troops and weapons on its borders with Ukraine. According to Ukraine's army commander General Ruslan Khomchak, Moscow has deployed at least 28 battalion tactical groups to it border region with its Slavic neighbour and to the Crimea. This equates roughly to around 20,000 - 25,000 troops." (Express : 12 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Sean Mathews,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited Istanbul over the weekend to mark the 10th anniversary of his country’s strategic partnership with Turkey and shore up support from his Black Sea neighbour as tensions escalate with Russia over Ukraine’s simmering war in Donbas." (Aljazeera: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Since Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014, he has poured $billions into creating a political fait accompli that Crimea is now part of Russia.

(Aljazeera: 11 April 2021)

Putin's "White Elephant" bridge between Crimea and Russia is NOT enough as a link between Russia and Ukraine. 

Putin needs a land bridge. 

And it is with this in mind that Putin is now putting his cherished ideal of a land bridge between Russia and Ukraine by readying his troops for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, specifically readying them for a push towards Mariupol. 

Jon Lockett (The Sun: 11 April 2021)

Jon Lockett also rather chillingly reports that,

"Dmitry Kozak (left), deputy head of Russia’s presidential administration, said Kiev's leaders were like "children playing with matches."

He chillingly added any "military action… would be the beginning of the end of Ukraine." (The Sun: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis

US President Biden has fired a warning shot over the military preparations bow of Putin.

As reported by RFE/RL,

"The United States has warned of "consequences" if Russia "acts recklessly or aggressively" toward Ukraine amid concerns over Moscow's troop buildup near Ukraine's borders.

"President Biden's been very clear about this," Secretary of State Antony Blinken (right) told NBC's Meet The Press on April 11. "If Russia acts recklessly, or aggressively, there will be costs, there will be consequences." (RFE/RL :11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, UNIAN reports that,

"On March 30, 2021, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron held a phone talk with Russian President Vladimir Putin and called on Russia to take on obligations to stabilize the ceasefire in Donbas." UNIAN : 5 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As I stated in my last blog entry (2 April 2021)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

With this in mind, it is rather interesting to note that, as DW (Deutsche Welle), reports,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel had urged Russia to reduce troop presence near Ukraine during a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Peskov said that Merkel expressed concerns, but "did not demand" the Kremlin to unwind its military buildup, which was an "internal affair." (DW: 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)

One should not be at all surprised that for Merkel, Putin's war manoeuvres on Ukraine's border is purely a Russian "internal" affair, just as she regards Nord Stream2 as a purely economic affair between Russia and Germany, and which has nothing at all to do with Putin's war with Ukraine.

What is perhaps even more striking about Angela Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war mongering with Ukraine is the fact that, together with Macron, they MAY hold a meeting with Zelensky.

There are those who may argue that Putin is merely "sabre rattling" towards Ukraine.

But the critical shortage of water in Crimea is pushing him towards the abyss of all-out war with Ukraine.

Only that land bridge at Mariupol will allow him to relieve the crisis of water supplies to his troops stationed in Crimea.

As UNIAN reports,

"They [Putin's army in Ukraine's Crimea] care about water supplies to military bases. But talking about water for ordinary homes of ordinary residents of Simferopol or Sevastopol – who cares?" summed up the official.

• Prior to the occupation of Crimea by Russia, Ukraine used to cover up to 85% of the peninsula's demand for freshwater through the North Crimean Canal.

•  After Russia grabbed the Crimean peninsula in 2014, Ukraine severed water supplies there.

•  In 2020, the situation with the availability of water in Crimea reached a critical level over droughts and shallowing of reservoirs. The occupying authorities limited the use of water in many towns and villages (UNIAN : 11 April 2021) (my emphasis)
  

As I have stated, "It is with this in mind that Putin is now putting his cherished ideal of a land bridge between Russia and Ukraine by readying his troops for a full scale invasion of Ukraine, specifically readying them for a push towards Mariupol.", to ensure that his troops in Crimea have enough water.

Are Angela Merkel and Emmanuel Macron ignorant of this fact?

With "friends" like Merkel and Macron, does Zelensky really need Putin as an enemy?

(to be contuned)

Zelensky's choice: Biden or Merkel and Macron

 As the Russian economy continues to edge towards a dangerous downturn, and the Covid 19 pandemic continues to keep the Russian people in its grip, Putin's is becoming more desperate to avert the eyes of the Russian people away from their economic hardships and their fears about their health by threatening a dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

Putin's problems with completing Nord Stream2 is merely one of the indicators of  the precariousness of the Russian economy. (cf: Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 1 April 2021)

 

As reported by Tom Parfit ,

"A build-up of troops by Russia on its border with Ukraine has prompted fears of more violence in the breakaway region of Donbas. Ukraine claims the mobilisation is taking place under the guise of Russia maintaining combat readiness and preparing for exercises. US defence officials estimate that about 4,000 additional troops have been sent to the border, which is already heavily militarised." (The Times : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Maroosha Muzaffar also reports,

"A week after four soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine, the US has pledged its support to the country in what it called the “face of ongoing Russian aggression”.
......

[US secretary of state Anthony] Blinken’s comments come after Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Ruslan Khomchak, had claimed Russia was trying to build up armed forces near Ukraine’s border “in a threat to the country’s security.” It comes after a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists was violated repeatedly. (Independent : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Timothy Ash so perceptively observes,

“It feels like Putin is readying for some big step — maybe a diversion for his own problems at home with Navalny and focus on ... State Duma elections. A victory in Ukraine would throw some red meat again to the nationalist crowd in Russia and expose the weakness again of the West,” he added, referring to jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny." (Holly Ellyatt: CNBC: 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Interview with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at NATO Headquaters : Méabh Mc Mahon : EuroNews: 26 March 2021

NATO is also expressing concern at the Russian military build-up on the Ukraine-Russia border, as well as in occupied Crimea.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"NATO said it was concerned about the Russian military build-up as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in the eastern Donbas region.

“Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week,” a NATO official told the Reuters news agency.

Ukraine, Western countries and NATO have accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up its proxies in Donbas." (Aljazeera : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Putin is attempting to turn the Normandy 4 participants viz. Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France, into a Normandy 3 political cabal by excluding Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"On March 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said contacts were being in the works between the leaders of Russia, Germany, and France regarding the latest developments in Donbas." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

 

The reaction of  Zelensky's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has reacted to the Kremlin's initiative to hold negotiations with the leaders of France and Germany regarding Donbas – without Ukraine's participation.
...
Negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the official recalled, are being conducted in the Normandy format, with the participation of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia leaders.

"We are convinced that only the full, not reduced, composition of the Normandy [Four], will allow achieving progress on key issues of a peaceful settlement, first of all, ensuring full and comprehensive ceasefire," [MFA Ukraine's press secretary Oleh] Nikolenko stressed." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is now faced with a tough choice.

US President Biden may now be covering his back but there is growing uncertainty about the political positions of Merkel and Macron towards Ukraine.

Merkel wants Nord Stream2 to be completed as the swan song, her final gesture to Putin, in the twilight of her political career.  

Macron, meanwhile, cannot wait for France to take over the EU's political stage from Merkel.  

For both Merkel and Macron, Ukraine is a political thorn that needs to be pulled out quickly, especially in light of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic that is raging in their countries.

Putin now dangles before them a way of removing that political thorn without them having to be encumbered by the presence of Zelensky.

Does Zelensky now choose to follow Biden or Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)