Zelensky's choice: Biden or Merkel and Macron

 As the Russian economy continues to edge towards a dangerous downturn, and the Covid 19 pandemic continues to keep the Russian people in its grip, Putin's is becoming more desperate to avert the eyes of the Russian people away from their economic hardships and their fears about their health by threatening a dangerous escalation of his war with Ukraine. 

Putin's problems with completing Nord Stream2 is merely one of the indicators of  the precariousness of the Russian economy. (cf: Holly Ellyatt : CNBC : 1 April 2021)

 

As reported by Tom Parfit ,

"A build-up of troops by Russia on its border with Ukraine has prompted fears of more violence in the breakaway region of Donbas. Ukraine claims the mobilisation is taking place under the guise of Russia maintaining combat readiness and preparing for exercises. US defence officials estimate that about 4,000 additional troops have been sent to the border, which is already heavily militarised." (The Times : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Maroosha Muzaffar also reports,

"A week after four soldiers were killed in eastern Ukraine, the US has pledged its support to the country in what it called the “face of ongoing Russian aggression”.
......

[US secretary of state Anthony] Blinken’s comments come after Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, Ruslan Khomchak, had claimed Russia was trying to build up armed forces near Ukraine’s border “in a threat to the country’s security.” It comes after a ceasefire agreement between Ukraine and Russia-backed separatists was violated repeatedly. (Independent : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

As Timothy Ash so perceptively observes,

“It feels like Putin is readying for some big step — maybe a diversion for his own problems at home with Navalny and focus on ... State Duma elections. A victory in Ukraine would throw some red meat again to the nationalist crowd in Russia and expose the weakness again of the West,” he added, referring to jailed Russian dissident Alexei Navalny." (Holly Ellyatt: CNBC: 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Interview with US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken at NATO Headquaters : Méabh Mc Mahon : EuroNews: 26 March 2021

NATO is also expressing concern at the Russian military build-up on the Ukraine-Russia border, as well as in occupied Crimea.

As reported by Aljazeera,

"NATO said it was concerned about the Russian military build-up as NATO ambassadors met to discuss the recent spike in violence in the eastern Donbas region.

“Allies shared their concerns about Russia’s recent large-scale military activities in and around Ukraine. Allies are also concerned about Russian violations of the July 2020 ceasefire that led to the death of four Ukrainian soldiers last week,” a NATO official told the Reuters news agency.

Ukraine, Western countries and NATO have accused Russia of sending troops and heavy weapons to prop up its proxies in Donbas." (Aljazeera : 1 April 2021) (my emphasis)

Even more ominously, Putin is attempting to turn the Normandy 4 participants viz. Ukraine, Germany, Russia, and France, into a Normandy 3 political cabal by excluding Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN,

"On March 29, Russian President Vladimir Putin's press secretary Dmitry Peskov said contacts were being in the works between the leaders of Russia, Germany, and France regarding the latest developments in Donbas." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin wants the fate of Ukraine to be decided between himself, Angela Merkel, and Emmanuel Macron.

 

The reaction of  Zelensky's Ministry of Foreign Affairs is that,

"The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine has reacted to the Kremlin's initiative to hold negotiations with the leaders of France and Germany regarding Donbas – without Ukraine's participation.
...
Negotiations on the settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian armed conflict, the official recalled, are being conducted in the Normandy format, with the participation of Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia leaders.

"We are convinced that only the full, not reduced, composition of the Normandy [Four], will allow achieving progress on key issues of a peaceful settlement, first of all, ensuring full and comprehensive ceasefire," [MFA Ukraine's press secretary Oleh] Nikolenko stressed." (UNIAN : 29 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is now faced with a tough choice.

US President Biden may now be covering his back but there is growing uncertainty about the political positions of Merkel and Macron towards Ukraine.

Merkel wants Nord Stream2 to be completed as the swan song, her final gesture to Putin, in the twilight of her political career.  

Macron, meanwhile, cannot wait for France to take over the EU's political stage from Merkel.  

For both Merkel and Macron, Ukraine is a political thorn that needs to be pulled out quickly, especially in light of the economic consequences of the Covid 19 pandemic that is raging in their countries.

Putin now dangles before them a way of removing that political thorn without them having to be encumbered by the presence of Zelensky.

Does Zelensky now choose to follow Biden or Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)