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Wednesday 14 October 2020

On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?

Having completed his State Visit to Britain, Zelensky is euphoric over the signing of "a comprehensive preferential free-trade agreement as well as a commitment to recognizing Ukraine's sovereignty" (Andrew McDonald: Politico: 7 Oct. 2020). 

 

This agreement includes, among others :-

  •  a new sanctions regime which will come into force from the end of the year. (ibid Andrew McDonald)
  •  a plan for cooperation and information exchange to counter the hybrid war waged by the Russian Federation (UNIAN:7 Ocober 2020) (my emphasis)
  •  enhancing cooperation between Ukraine and the United Kingdom in the military and military-technical spheres. (UNIAN : 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)
  •  an Agreement on Political Cooperation, Free Trade and Strategic Partnership between Ukraine and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland. (UNIAN: 8 October 2020) (my emphasis)
In an interview with Stephen Sackur of BBC's 'Hardtalk', Zelensky had difficulty in disguising how he has left all other Ukrainian oligarchs somewhat untouched whilst going after former Ukraine president, Petro Poroshenko, with a touch of venom. 

He further found strange excuses for appointing former top Yanukovich officials to critical positions in his government.  (BBC 'Hard Talk': 12 October 2020: IPlayer)

 Most significant of all, Zelensky was rather uncomfortable when asked by Stephen Sackur,

"Are you hoping that Donald Trump, who has been very negative in many ways about Ukraine ... Are you hoping that he loses and Joe Biden wins?",

Zelensky gave a tortuous 'diplomatic' answer. 

And so he should.

The chances of Biden becoming the next President of the US is, at the moment, quite high, notwithstanding the uncertainties of American politics.

A Biden win will, once more, take a rather keen look at what is happening in Ukraine. Merkel and Macron are also aware of this fact. 

In particular Merkel, whose political life is fast fading, realizes that Nord Stream2, that pet project of Putin and herself, may be in even greater jeopardy following a Biden win in the upcoming US presidential election.

And following the attempted assasination of Navalny by Putin, and Navalny's  recovery in a German hospital, many Germans themselves are clamoring for Nord Stream2 to be halted.

Even the German politician, Ursula von den Leyen (left), now EU President, cannot swing all the members of the EU behind the completion of Nord Stream2. 

 And then we have the 'strange' remarks of Zelensky during his Stephen Sackur interview that,

"We understand that today we only have the Normandy Format at our disposal. 

And we are following the direction of the Minsk peace process. So we understand that Ukraine and the Russian Federation are subjects to the Minsk process.......

We are following the Minsk process. Well, I should say that we need Minsk to be a little bit more flexible ...."

 

Zelensky may think that there should be flexibility in interpreting the Minsk2 protocols.

However, as reported by UNIAN,

"EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell (left) in a phone talk with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements.

"High Representative/Vice-President Borrell also informed Minister Lavrov of the agreement among EU Foreign Ministers to continue the current approach to EU-Russia relations, whereby the full implementation of the Minsk agreements remains key. He called on Russia to fully implement the Minsk agreements," according to a press release following the phone talk." (UNIAN : 13 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This does not quite square with the 'flexibility' approach of Zelensky.

Which raises the critical question viz.

"On whose side is Zelensky? Putin, the EU, or Ukraine?"


(to be continued)