Putin's current actions now confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

In my blog post (Saturday, 9 August 2014) I wrote that,

"There is an old Hopi saying that "The truth will always float to the surface". And finally, on 31st July 2014, it is emerging that Putin and Merkel [may] have been having secret talks that will concede Crimea to Russia in exchange for ending the war between Russia and Ukraine."

And then on 13 Dec 2014, a few months after Putin illegally invaded and annexed Crimea, I further wrote that,

On July 25, 2014, Alexander Motyl (right) stated that,

"Is Putin evil? His actions certainly are, if by evil we understand behavior that willfully, consciously and purposely destroys human life. Perhaps we can call his actions undeniably evil and Putin himself "evil enough." Evil enough for what? Evil enough for condemnation by people of good will."

He continued that,

"Such countries as France and Germany, which have extensive economic relations with Russia, face a difficult moral choice. They must ask themselves whether Putin is evil or evil enough. If they decide his killing spree in eastern Ukraine is neither evil nor evil enough, they must explain -- to themselves and to the rest of the world -- just why they believe the destruction of Ukrainian, Russian, Malaysian, Dutch and other lives is not a form of evil behavior." (ibid Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

It really would seem that neither Michael O'Hanlon and Jeremy Shapiro  (Washington Post : December 7, 2014) would regard Putin's actions over Ukraine as evil. If so, would they regard Hitler as having being an 'evil' man?"

Seven years later, after continuously dangling the 'Sword of Damocles' over the head of Ukraine,  Putin now stands on the verge of releasing the full might of his army against Ukraine.

As reported by Alberto Nardelli and Jennifer Jacobs,

"The U.S. has shared intelligence including maps with European allies that shows a buildup of Russian troops and artillery to prepare for a rapid, large-scale push into Ukraine from multiple locations if President Vladimir Putin decided to invade, according to people familiar with the conversations.
...
The information lays out a scenario where troops would cross into Ukraine from Crimea, the Russian border and via Belarus, with about 100 battalion tactical groups -- potentially around 100,000 soldiers -- deployed for what the people described as an operation in rough terrain and freezing conditions, covering extensive territory and prepared for a potentially prolonged occupation." (Bloomberg : 21 Nov 2021) (my emphasis)

                                              Bloomberg 21 Nov 2021                                                           

  

As also reported by Howard Altman,

"Russia has more than 92,000 troops amassed around Ukraine’s borders and is preparing for an attack by the end of January or beginning of February, the head of Ukraine’s defense intelligence agency told Military Times.

Such an attack would likely involve airstrikes, artillery and armor attacks followed by airborne assaults in the east, amphibious assaults in Odessa and Mariupul and a smaller incursion through neighboring Belarus, Ukraine Brig. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov (right) told Military Times Saturday morning in an exclusive interview." (Military Times : 20 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This time, however, unlike when Putin's 'little green men' invaded and illegally occupied (to this day!) Ukraine's Crimea, Ukraine is battle-prepared for Putin's impending invasion.

And now Volodymyr Zelensky, the President of Ukraine, is not standing alone against Putin.

As reported by Natasha Bertrand, Jim Sciutto and Katie Bo Lillis,

The Biden administration is weighing sending military advisers and new equipment including weaponry to Ukraine as Russia builds up forces near the border and US officials prepare allies for the possibility of another Russian invasion, multiple sources familiar with the deliberations tell CNN.

The discussions about the proposed lethal aid package are happening as Ukraine has begun to warn publicly that an invasion could happen as soon as January. The package could include new Javelin anti-tank and anti-armor missiles as well as mortars, the sources said." (CNN : 23 November 2021) (my emphasis) (video below)

As also reported by Chris Jewers,

"The UK has signed a deal to supply warships and missiles to Ukraine as 90,000 Russian troops mass on the country's border amid rising tensions in the region. 

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace signed a treaty with Ukraine last week, under which the country's government can access financing for contracts with UK suppliers to help beef up its naval capabilities. 

It is expected to help deliver two mine counter-measures vessels (MCMV), the joint production of eight missile ships, the delivery of and retrofit of weapons systems to existing vessels, and the joint production of a frigate and consultancy and technical support for the building of naval infrastructure including the delivery of equipment." (Mail Online : 18 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is now angrily and dangerously pacing around in his "covid-secured bunker".

The critical question now is whether his stalwart 'siloviki' will also "egg him on" to invade Ukraine or whether they, beholden as they are to Putin, will try to reign him in.

And just how far is the Russian people, suffering as they are under the covid-19 pandemic and increasingly dire economic straits, willing to throw their weight behind Putin in setting off an all-out war with Ukraine?

As Alexander Motyl pointed out in 2014, when Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea,  Putin's current actions now also confronts us with "facing a moral choice".

(to be continued)

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

Ten day ago I wrote that,

"Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine." (blog entry 2 Nov 2021) 

Events of the past few days are now confirming that yes, indeed, Putin has now gone beyond mere 'sabre rattling' in his goal to invade Ukraine.

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin is now readying himself to plunge into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine comes from the unlikely source of Lukashenko,  the current President of Belarus.

As the former US ambassador to Poland, Daniel Fried, explains,

"Lukashenko (left) is a dictator who is trying to remain in power. He's trying to intimidate Poland and Lithuania because those countries have been strongly supporting the Byelorussian democratic movement                  
.....
This is part of a pattern of Lukashenko's aggression. And behind him stands Vladimir Putin, whose also putting pressure, as we speak, also on Ukraine ... " (Youtube Video (below) : 11 November 2021)

Lukashenko himself is threatening to cut off gas supplies to the EU because of the ramping up of sanctions against himself and his cronies.

"We are heating Europe and they still threaten us with closing the border. And what if we shut off natural gas there. I would therefore recommend that the leadership of Poland, Lithuania, and the other headless  people think before speaking ..." (ibid Youtube video below)

[Now bear in mind that] Putin [already] cut off gas supplies through the Yamal pipeline to Germany, And since Sunday [October 31], Putin's gas giant has only been transporting half as much gas through Ukraine to Austria and southern Germany.as reported by James Lee (Express : 3 November 2021)

To completely shut off the Yamal pipeline, as threatened by Lukashenko, will cause even greater shortages in Germany, as well as in Austria, Lithuania, and Poland.

"Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement." (Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Nick Wadhams :Time : 11 November 2021) (my emhasis)

Putin, of course, realises that his Nord Stream2 'comrade-in-arms', Angela Merkel is, effectively, a spent German political force, and thus his current actions is a shot over the bow of the new incoming Chancellor of Germany.

Merkel's feeble attempts to shield her desire for Nord Sream2 to come on stream behind the refugee crisis on the Polish-Belarus border  is patently obvious when that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, exclaimed that,

"Separately, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that dialogue was the only option to settle the [refugee] crisis.

"Belarus has already repeatedly suggested doing consultations at the border, to talk, to settle these issues based on international law," he told reporters. (DW : 10 November 2021),

This response of Lavrov mirrors Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war with Ukraine since 2014.

Given that Merkel is now a spent political force, Putin has to pay much much more attention to to what is coming from the White House. 

As reported by Haley Brown,

"The US is warning its European allies that Russia may be pondering a potential invasion of Ukraine as the Biden administration monitors a troop buildup on the frontier between the two nations, according to a new report. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the US is “monitoring the region very closely” and would “continue to consult closely as well with allies and partners on this issue.”

“As we’ve made clear, any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of great concern to the United States,” said Blinken, who spoke alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

Blinken said the US did not know Russia’s intentions but said Moscow’s “playbook” has been in the past to invent provocations along its border to justify military intervention.

“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” he said. “If there are any provocations that we’re seeing, they’re coming from Russia.” (New York Post : 11 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, is now suddenly denying that Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine.

As  reported by Dmitry Antonov,

"Russia on Friday dismissed as inflammatory a media report suggesting Moscow might be weighing an attack on Ukraine and accused the United States of making a series of aggressive moves in the Black Sea.
.....
The Kremlin said it was up to Moscow alone where it deployed its own forces within its own borders.
"Such headlines do nothing more than pointlessly and groundlessly fuel tensions. Russia does not pose a threat to anyone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call." (Reuters : 12 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in 2015,

"On 27 February, unidentified armed men seized the local parliament and local government buildings in Crimea, raising the Russian flag.

Among them appeared to be regular soldiers without military insignia, who were dubbed the "little green men".

Mr Putin subsequently admitted deploying troops on the peninsula to "stand behind Crimea's self-defence forces". (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

So are we to believe Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, when he says that, ".... Russia does not pose a threat to anyone ..", when thousands of "little green men" are massed along the border between Ukraine and Russia?

As the old Scout Motto says, "Be Prepared".

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

(to be continued)

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine.

It should come as no surprise that Putin is upping the ante on his war front with Ukraine.

As reported by Paul Sonne,Robyn Dixon and David L. Stern,

"A renewed buildup of Russian troops near the Ukrainian border has raised concern among some officials in the United States and Europe who are tracking what they consider irregular movements of equipment and personnel on Russia’s western flank.
........
The renewed movements of Russian forces in the area come as the Kremlin embraces a harder line on Ukraine. Russian officials from President Vladimir Putin on down have escalated their rhetoric in recent months, attacking Kyiv’s Western ties and even questioning its sovereignty. Putin has warned that any expansion of NATO military infrastructure on Ukrainian territory represents a “red line” for Moscow." (Washington Post : 30 October 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also video below: Youtube : 1 November 2021)

  

As also reported by Betsy Woodruff Swan and Paul McCleary, 

"New commercial satellite photos taken on Monday confirm recent reports that Russia is once again massing troops and military equipment on the border with Ukraine after a major buildup this spring." (Politico: 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 Amy Mackinnon (right) further reports that, 

"U.S officials are closely monitoring Russian military activity near the border with Ukraine, which has sparked concern about Moscow’s intentions after months of escalating tensions between the two countries.

Videos and public satellite imagery that began circulating online in late October show a substantial quantity of Russian military equipment being moved near the border with Ukraine, where Russian-backed separatists have waged war against the Ukrainian military since 2014. " (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

As reported by Maria Kiselyova, we now have that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), 

" [accusing] Ukrainian leaders on Monday of trying to drag Moscow into the conflict in eastern Ukraine, following an escalation in fighting between government forces and rebels in the breakaway region.

"We observe attempts to carry out provocations, elicit some reaction from the militia and drag Russia into some kind of combat action," Sergei Lavrov told Russia's state television." (Reuters : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

This Soviet-style false accusation of Lavrov is, no doubt, a knee-jerk response to Ukraine now receiving sophisticated drones from Turkey.

 As reported by Dorian Jones,

"Russia is warning Turkey over arms sales to Ukraine after a Turkish-made drone attacked Russian-backed rebels in Ukraine.

A Kremlin spokesman has warned that Turkey's ongoing arms sales to Ukraine threaten to destabilize the region." (VOA News : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis)

As Dmytro Kuleba writes,

"As NATO mulls over its strategy in the Black Sea region and seeks to ensure stability and security in what is an increasingly turbulent environment, Ukraine and Turkey are providing a model worth emulating by actively strengthening their strategic partnership via deepening political, military, and technical cooperation....." (Atlantic Council : 28 October 2021) (my emphasis) (left: Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu and Dmytro Kuleba : Foreign Ministers of Turkey and Ukraine)

What is further maddening Putin is the fact that, as reported by Roman Olearchyk, Max Seddon, and David Sheppard,

"Europe risks giving in to Russia if Germany approves the Nord Stream 2 pipeline as a condition for more gas supplies from Moscow, the head of Ukraine’s state energy company has said.
.......
“If anyone has any doubts about it, then Putin is telling everyone to their face: ‘You allow NS2 to become operational or you won’t get any more gas’,” Vitrenko said.

“He wants to reverse the clock and go back to the situation that we had 10, 20, 30 years ago . . . to negotiate special conditions with politicians of different countries.”

As gas prices have soared to record highs in the past two months, markets have moved frequently in response to comments from Moscow in the hope that Gazprom, Russia’s state-run gas monopoly, will increase supplies to Europe." (Financial Times : 1 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Irina Reznik and Henry Meyer (left) have also reported that,

“Putin senses an opportunity from the [gas] crisis [in the EU],” said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Kremlin-founded Russian International Affairs Council. “Russia wants to prevent the EU from dragging its feet on certifying Nord Stream 2 and start talks on long-term stable prices for gas.” (BNN Bloomberg : 13 October 2021) (my emphasis) 

And on cue, Germany is supporting Putin in  his urgent desire to get Nord Sream2 Certified to pump gas into the EU.

As reported by Joseph Nasr and Christoph Steitz,

"Allowing Nord Stream 2 to pump Russian gas to Germany will not threaten supplies to the European Union, the German Economy Ministry said on Tuesday, clearing a major hurdle for the disputed pipeline.

While the pipeline is ready to start operations, it still needs to be certified by Germany's Federal Network Agency and the ministry's supply analysis is a key requirement for the regulator to continue that process.

"In its analysis the Federal Economy Ministry concludes that granting certification is not threatening security of gas supply to the Federal Republic of Germany and the European Union," the ministry said in a statement." (Reuters : 24 October 2012) (my emphasis)

Youtube : 21 October 2021

Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine. 

(to be continued)