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Monday 25 November 2019

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

Mark Twain popularized the phrase, " .. lies, damned lies, and statistics" though its origin is rather difficult to trace, as was discovered by a member of the Department of Mathematics at York University.

Wikipedia gives a rather concise summary of the meaning of this phrase.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments."

Now whilst sceptical about the underlying assumptions of the art of mathematical 'statistical' analyses it is interesting, nonetheless, to note that,

(Erik C. Nisbet & Olga Kamenchuk: Quartz : 24 November 2019)

Taking these results at their 'face value' it would seem that 44% of the respondents indicated that Zelensky should take something of a strong stand against Trump trying to shake him down like some Mafia boss.


Zelensky's office has, however,

"... denied a request from a political rival to release its records of a July 25 call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump – a call that in the United States is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry." (Pamela Falk :CBS News : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)


Indeed, as reported by Caitlin Oprysko,

I think everybody in Ukraine is so tired about Burisma,” Zelensky responded in an exasperated tone. “We have our own country. We have our independence, we have our problems and questions. That's it."

Zelensky did not respond to further prodding by the reporter, rolling his eyes as aides whisked him away." (Politico: 19 November 2019) (my emphasis)


Meanwhile, as reported by Natalia Zinets,

The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Ukrainian authorities and commended them on the considerable progress made during the last few months in advancing reforms and continuing with sound economic policies,” it said in a statement. (Reuters : 23 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Note that these were "constructive and productive discussions", notwithstanding the fact that, as I wrote in my previous blog (14/11/2019),

"As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.
 ...
The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)"

So are we to now surmise that, given those "constructive and productive discussions" Zelensky's team had with the IMF that a rift between  Kolomoisky and Zelensky is beginning to develop?

Will the Zelensky team "throw Kolomoisky under the bus", so to speak, to obtain the much needed IMF "fund to replace a $3.9 billion stand-by arrangement that expires in January." (ibid Natalia Zinets)

This is Zelensky's "Kennedy moment" when, in 1962, US President John Kennedy boldly confronted Nikita Khrushchev during a 13-day (October 16–28, 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union initiated by the American discovery of Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba. (Wikipedia)

In this case we do not have missiles but the recouping of $billions looted by Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, from his own Privat Bank.... from the people of Ukraine.

But there is yet another "Kennedy moment" looming ahead for Zelensky.

I refer, of course, to the upcoming December Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Merkel, and Zelensky.

As reported by Expatica,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Ukranian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 9 for their first face-to-face encounter, seeking to end the half-decade conflict in Ukraine, the French presidency said Friday."



The leaders will join French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the four-way summit aimed at resolving the conflict in the east of Ukraine, where pro-Moscow separatists have declared breakaway regions, the Elysee Palace said. (Expatica : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding the facts that,

"Ukraine's navy says that the three ships captured by Russia almost a year ago and released on November 19 have been returned in very poor condition and are not able to make it back to port under their own power.

"They cannot sail on their own. The Russians ruined them -- even took lamps, power outlets, and toilets. We will show the whole world the Russian barbarism towards them," Voronchenko said. (RFERL : 20 November 2019) (my emphasis)"

and the facts that,
  • "Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday mounted seven attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.(UNIAN: 24 November 2019)
  • Russia-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, used proscribed weapons to attack Ukrainian troops on Saturday, November 23.(UNIAN: 23 November 2019),
will Zelensky 'cave in' to Putin at the December Normandy Format meeting, as Merkel and Macron so desperately desire?
 
Merkel's and Macron's primary agenda is the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin so that German and French businessmen can, once again, suck at the teats of the Russian cow. 

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?


(to be continued)

Thursday 14 November 2019

Zelensky is fast falling into the arms of Putin.

In my blog entry of (26/9/2019) I wrote that,

"With this in mind, I shall merely now include snippets of how a free press in the US brought to light just how Trump used the suffering of the Ukrainian people as a bargaining chip against Zelensky and, more importantly, brought to light the myriad of actors that worked in cahoots with Trump to try to achieve his aim of besmirching one of his main opponents in the upcoming 2020 presidential elections in the US, Joe Biden." (video snippets: 26/9/2019)

This evidence proves that US President Donald Trump is, in fact, Putin's Manchurian Candidate. It also, once again, brings to the fore the possible 'compromat' hold that Putin has over Trump, and which is contained in the 2016 Steele dossier .

At yesterday's (13/11/2019) US Congressional Impeachment Hearings,(Youtube: Full video) the current US chargĂ© d’affaires (acting Ambassador) for Ukraine, William Taylor, also revealed that,

"Following the call with President Trump, the member of my staff asked Ambassador Sondland what President Trump thought about Ukraine. Ambassador Sondland responded that, "President Trump cares more about the investigations of Biden, which Giuliani was pressing for," Taylor added, referring to Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani." (Christina Wilkie :CNBC : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)  


This revelation from acting Ambassador Taylor should give Ukraine's President Zelensky serious pause for thought, especially in light of the near desperation of Merkel and Macron to convene, as quickly as possible, a new Normandy Four summit.

Indeed, as UNIAN reports,

"According to [Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko (right)], Ukraine, Germany and France have already approved the preliminary date of the Normandy Four summit." (UNIAN: 14 November, 2019) (my emphasis)

The urgency of Merkel to quickly convene a new Normandy Four summit may be linked to the fact that, as reported by Markus Wacket,

"Germany’s parliament on Wednesday (13 November 2019) approved changes to the law governing the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline to make it compliant with European Union regulations, removing a hurdle to completion of the Russia-led project." Reuters : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, continues to increase the pressure on Zelensky by demanding that,

".... the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective". (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

An inkling of what Putin means by, "well prepared" and "effective" comes from Zelensky's version of Trump's Rudy Giuliani, Ihor Kolomoisky (right), possibly Ukraine's most powerful businessman, and Zelensky's patron.

As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.
 ...
The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Like Yanukovich, who during the Revolution of Dignity 2014 fled into the arms of Putin with his billions looted from the Ukrainian people, Kolomoisky, it would seem, is now preparing a similar exit strategy with his billions looted from the Ukrainian people except that he is now urging Zelensky to flee into the arms of Putin so that he, Kolomoisky, can continue to live in Ukraine rather than having to decamp to Moscow.

And let us not forget Andriy Bohdan (right), the current head of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration.

As reported by Hromadske International,
  • In March 2010, after Viktor Yanukovych won the presidential election, Bohdan became Deputy Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and government commissioner on anti-corruption policy in the government of Mykola Azarov.
  • In 2013, Prime Minister Azarov reappointed Bohdan as the Cabinet’s commissioner on anti-corruption policy.
  • After the events of the Revolution of Dignity in March 2014, Bohdan was fired. Later he became an adviser to the newly appointed governor of Dnipropetrovsk region oligarch Ihor Kolomoisky.
  • Bohdan also defended the interests of Kolomoisky’s associate Hennadiy Korban, who was charged with creating an organized crime group, and embezzlement in 2015. (Hromadske International : 23 May 2019) (my emphasis)
Yuri Polakiwsky now also raises a red flag about Andriy Bohdan,

"The opportunity to transform Ukraine’s politics is rapidly slipping away.
To many observers, Andriy Bohdan, the head of the Presidential Administration, has instituted a form of governance that does not reflect the expectations for change that were promised by the president. Critics, as well as sympathetic supporters, see an administration of two faces: one that is responsive to the expressed ideals for change, and the other as succumbing to internal domestic pressures which overtly favor oligarchic interests." (The Atlantic Council : 4 November 2019) (my emphasis)
 
More disconcerting,

"Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko has said Ukraine may withdraw from Minsk agreements if the summit in the Normandy format fails. 
...
Now all parties are awaiting a response from Russia, the BBC's Ukrainian service reports. 
...
In addition, Prystaiko assures Zelensky expects from the Kremlin "a clear conversation to come and say: what do you really want from us?" 
.....
At the same time, he admitted it is not worth waiting for a breakthrough in these negotiations: the leaders will adopt a communiqué whose draft has already been agreed." (ibid UNIAN)

The "death  knoll" for the Minsk2 protocols has now been sounded by Bohdan, Zelensky,  and Kolomoisky, Ukraine's "Three Amigos".


Expect the 'mythical' Steinmeier Formula to now emerge as the central formula for the next Normandy Four meeting, to the utter delight of Merkel, Macron, Putin, and .... Kolomoisky and Bohdan.

the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective".

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10754610-ukraine-may-withdraw-from-minsk-agreements-fm-prystaiko.html
the meeting should be "well prepared" and "effective".

Read more on UNIAN: https://www.unian.info/politics/10754610-ukraine-may-withdraw-from-minsk-agreements-fm-prystaiko.html
Zelensky is fast falling into the arms of Putin.

(to be continued)

Thursday 7 November 2019

Zelensky is now politically walking on egg shells.

During the last presidential elections in Ukraine, the then front runner, Volodymyr Zelensky, campaigning under the banner of "Servant of the People", promised "transparency" in government.

Six months after Zelensky's success in becoming President of Ukraine, Frank Vogl now reports that,

"There also are the no less overt pressures by billionaire Igor Kolomoisky, who owned the TV station where Zelensky had worked. And then there is the unfortunate reality of possible corruption among the ranks of his own political party’s newly elected members of parliament.

If Zelensky does not publicly demonstrate that he is going to support transparency and the independence of the judicial process in these matters, then his claim to be a new kind of Ukrainian politician – finally, an honest one – will be in tatter" (The Globalist : 28 October 2019) (my emphasis)

Even more disconcerting for Zelensky, Ian Talley (right) reports that,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter—according to people familiar with the negotiations.
 ...
The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)

And if this were not enough to give Zelensky severe headaches, that fateful call he had with US President Donald Trump on July 25th, and that is now leading to Trump's impeachment, is adding to Zelensky's political headaches.


As Salvador Rizzo (left) reports,

"Zelensky’s criticism of [U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, Yovanovitch] wasn’t out of the blue, as Trump claimed. It was prompted by Trump himself. Zelensky noted that Trump was “the first one who told me that she was a bad ambassador,” a line that sounds straight out of a hostage video." (Washington Post : 6 November 2019) (my emphasis)


As the old saying goes, "It doesn't rain but it pours"

UNIAN now reports that,

"The removal by Denmark of the final barrier to a Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline bypassing Ukraine that has drawn fire from President Trump could lead to the project's completion within months." (UNIAN : 5 November 2019) (my emphasis)

As per usual, outgoing Merkel,

" ....  [who] sheltered the pipeline from European Union sanctions on Russia imposed in the years after the Kremlin's 2014 annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula ... has said though that she would work to ensure that Ukraine is not cut off." (ibid UNIAN) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"Many foreign policy analysts have raised alarms about Trump's wholehearted endorsement of Orban, particularly given his relationship with Putin." (UNIAN : 5 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Not only is Zelensky confronted with Merkel and Macron trying to get him to give concessions to Putin about elections in the Donbas, thus undermining the Minsk 2 protocols, he is also now faced with the Trump-Putin-Orban trio, all of them sharing a common disdain for Ukraine. (cf. Tim Lister and Nathan Hodge : CNN :5 November 2019)



In my very first blog entry (10/06/2014) I pointed out that historically, Ukrainian women were referred to as "Scythian" women.


Now Scythian women are really not to be messed with.  As Hippocrates warned, “They [Sarmatian (or Scythian) women] have no right breasts…for while they are yet babies their mothers make red-hot a bronze instrument constructed for this very purpose and apply it to the right breast and cauterize it, so that its growth is arrested, and all its strength and bulk are diverted to the right shoulder and right arm.” 

Since EU visa restrictions against Ukrainians were lifted in 2017, a generation of young Ukrainian men now work in the EU, especially in Poland.

This means that the voice of Ukrainian women, in  particular, now has greater force in Ukrainian politics.

Whilst the cauterization of the right breast of Ukrainian female babies may be folklore, Zelensky would be wise not to take his female supporters for granted.

Like a London taxi, they can turn on a sixpence i.e. change focus, activity, opinion, or behavior very suddenly or abruptly.

Zelensky is now politically walking on egg shells.

(to be continued)