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Monday 24 May 2021

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron

Thomas Escritt reports that,

  • "Bottlenecks in the supply of raw materials could cost Germany a rapid recovery from the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, with two-thirds of the sectors in the economy reporting supply constraints, an economic research centre found.
  • According to the report by the respected German Economic Institute, reported by Handelsblatt newspaper on Wednesday, 40% of industry groups surveyed reported severe short-term supply disruption. A further third were seeing more modest disruption.
  • Sectors reporting severe disruptions, to inputs ranging from microchips and wood for construction, included the car and plastics industries as well as the textile, leather and construction industries. (Reuters: 19 May 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Zelensky is finally waking up to the fact that,

""We understand we will continue to follow the Normandy format. I had a video meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron with the participation of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. I feel their support. I believe they should support [Ukraine] stronger. They are aware of my opinion, I'm very open with them. I believe they have recently somewhat weakened their positions in relation to Russia," Zelensky said." (UNIAN : 20 May 2021) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Zelensky's comment that Merkel, in particular, has 'weakened' her position against Putin's war with Ukraine, and his invasion and occupation of Ukraine's Crimea, 

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (right) spoke out against tougher sanctions against Russia amid the latest escalation in and around eastern Ukraine. It is precisely due to the current tension, he believes, that dialogue with Moscow is needed. After all, relations between Russia and Germany (and the European Union in general) have deteriorated badly, "but this shouldn't be the case." He noted that pursuing a dialogue with governments with which relations are complicated is "the essence of diplomacy." (UNIAN : April 27 2021) (my emphasis)  

No doubt Merkel is now more consumed with ensuring that Nord Stream2 is completed, especially in light of the economic impact of the Covid pandemic on German industry. 

 Added to which, 

"Fourteen Republican senators on Thursday introduced a bill that would reimpose sanctions on entities involved in the construction of the Nord Stream pipeline after the Biden administration announced it would waive them earlier this week." (Zack Budryk: The Hill: 20 May 2021) (my emphasis)

As Senator Kevin Cramer (left) stated,

"At the risk of weakening America's global standing, the Biden Administration is acquiescing to a misguided German strategy which will give Putin a grip on our allies in Europe," lead sponsor Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) said in a statement. "The Putin Pipeline must be stopped, and I urge my colleagues to join this effort before the Administration makes the United States learn the hard way why energy security means national security." (ibid Zack Budryk) (my emphasis)

Even the US Senate Foreign Relations Chairman, Democrat Bob Menendez (right), has stated that, 

"I urge the administration to rip off the Band-Aid, lift these waivers and move forward with the congressionally mandated sanctions,” Menendez said in a statement. “The administration has said that the pipeline is a bad idea and that it is a Russian malign influence project. I share that sentiment, but fail to see how today’s decision will advance U.S. efforts to counter Russian aggression in Europe.” (ibid Zack Budryk) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by UNIAN,

""In the past day, May 23, six ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on May 24, 2021.

In particular, the enemy used proscribed 120mm mortars near the town of Avdiyivka, as well as 82mm mortars and hand-held anti-tank grenade launchers near the village of Novhorodske." (UNIAN : 24 May 2021) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by UKRINFORM,

"According to a report of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine (SMM), on May 14, an SMM patrol spotted 17 tanks in a training area near Myrne (28km south-west of Luhansk). On May 13, a long-range UAV detected two infantry fighting vehicles (BMP variant), an armoured personnel carrier (BTR-80), a trench digger (probable TMK-2), and three armoured personnel carriers (MT-LB variant) in a compound in Kalmiuske (formerly Komsomolske, 42km south-east of Donetsk)." (UKRINFORM : 24 May 2021) (my emphasis) 

As the EU slowly begins to emerge from the many lockdowns precipitated by the Covid pandemic, many EU countries are now concentrating on resuscitating their economies, especially Germany and France.

Merkel simply cannot bring herself to have Nord Stream2 fail.

Macron, the banker, is also eyeing Putin's Russia as a possible economic bonanza for France as the post-Covid economic wheels slowly begin to grind into action.

Will Merkel and Macron now increase their pressure on the EU to release Putin from those EU sanctions that have kept him in check from invading Ukraine?

Zelesnsky now faces the political test of confronting Merkel and Macron.

(to be continued)