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Tuesday 24 August 2021

Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.

It is interesting to note that as Angela Merkel, a day after Putin gave her a farewell 'party' in the Kremlin, in one of her rare visits to Ukraine she then moved onto Kiev to have a farewell meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky, President of Ukraine.

Yet again was she batting for Putin's Nord Stream2 pipeline even as she moves into the sunset of her political life.

 

At her meeting with Zelensky, Euronews reported that,

"I would plead for another meeting at the presidential level or the political leadership level with myself, the French President and the Russian and Ukrainian President. That in my opinion would bring us progress, if we can work out a good agenda - our advisers should do that," Merkel said.  (Euronews: 23 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Euronews further reports that,

"Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he supported the idea of a meeting, but urged western countries to put more pressure on Russia over Crimea.

He said Kyiv is seeking a permanent cease-fire in eastern Ukraine, a prisoner exchange, open crossings at the line of contact and to ensure Red Cross access to the conflict zone.

“As long as there is no progress, the pressure on Russia should continue. We want to see active efforts of our Western partners,” Zelenskyy said." (ibid Euronews) (my emphasis)

During their joint press conference, Zelensky further stated, to the undoubted chagrin of Merkel, that,

"We view this project (Nord Stream2) exclusively through the prism of security and consider it a dangerous political weapon of the Kremlin"


The 'mealy mouthed' response of Merkel that any suspicion that Putin will use Nord Stream2 as a political weapon will call down the wrath of Germany upon his head rather betrays her political disingenuous stand. 

As also reported by  Isabelle Khurshudyan,

"Ukraine had been counting on U.S. measures to halt the controversial project, but in May, the Biden
administration said it had decided against imposing sanctions on the company in charge of Nord Stream 2 in an effort to rebuild relations with Germany.

...
In exchange for an end to U.S. efforts to block Nord Stream 2, the countries agreed that Germany would invest in Ukraine’s green technology infrastructure, and Berlin and Washington would work together on initiatives to mitigate Russia’s energy dominance in Europe. (Washington Post : 19 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Really??? 

For Germany making oodles of money importing Russian gas into the EU via Nord Stream2, Ukraine must be satisfied with a few German solar panel farms to help save the world from global warming, whilst Germany itself accelerates global warming by pumping natural gas into the EU.

Zelensky's response to the Biden/Merkel offer says it all.

"Zelensky said Wednesday that he doesn’t “really have much faith” that all of the commitments of the agreement would be met. Asked if he viewed the pact between the United States and Germany as a betrayal, Zelensky shrugged and smiled.

“Certainly, I’m not happy about this arrangement, if I can call it that, and the format in which it was achieved,” he said." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

And then we have the issue of Ukraine's Crimea.

Crimea : For FULL discussion see Aljazeera 23 Aug 2021 

Speaking at the Crimean Platform yesterday,

"Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pledged to do all he can to recover the Russian-annexed Crimean peninsula and urged international allies to support the effort.

Speaking on Monday at the Crimean Platform, a summit in Kyiv designed to keep international attention focused on Russia’s 2014 annexation, Zelenskyy said Ukraine would use “all possible political, legal and first and foremost diplomatic means” to pursue its goal." (Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us not forget that the first attempted annexation of Crimea by Russia occurred during the reign of Catherine the Great, that minor German princess who married Russia's Peter III in 1745, and who has a fervent admirer in Angela Merkel, current (just!) Chancellor of Germany.

As Mary Kenny (right) describes it,

"She [Angela Merkel] herself brushes aside notions of "role models", although it has been observed that she has a portrait on her office wall of a particularly strong role model: Sophie von Anhalt-Zerbst, the minor German princess who became Czarina Catherine the Great of All the Russias - enlightened but ruthless in the wielding of imperial power. (Belfast Telegraph : 5 January 2015) (my emphasis)

Even more interesting, as Carolyn Harris writes,

"Catherine risked her reputation in the West as an Enlightened ruler, however, to expand her territory into Ukraine. While Catherine entertained European royalty and thinkers at her court, her armies fought in a war with the Ottoman Empire (modern day Turkey) for control of the Black Sea. ......  Catherine was determined to expand her south eastern frontier and develop a permanent Russian presence on the Black Sea." (Smithsonian Magazine : 4 March 2014) (my emphasis)

If we substitute "Putin" for "Catherine", does this explain why Merkel is always covering Putin's political and economic back? Does Putin remind Merkel of her German political idol, Catherine the Great of Russia? 

Is this why she has allowed the German firm, Siemens, to sell electricity generating equipment to Putin that is now being used in Ukraine's Crimea? 

Aljazeera : 23 Aug 2021

Merkel's current call for another Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Zelensky, and herself  smacks of nothing less than giving Putin a final and friendly pat on the back, a Putin whom she once described as "living in a dream world of his own" in 2014.

More recently, Zelensky described Putin as,

"As for his feelings about Putin, Zelensky described his Russian counterpart as being “irrational” and “emotional, sometimes even highly emotional.”

“He is too emotional when it comes to Ukraine,” Zelensky added." (ibid Isabelle Khurshudyan) (my emphasis)

As the political curtain falls on Merkel, Putin's dangerous political irrationality over Ukraine will know no bounds.

 Zelensky should now ready himself for an unhinged and dangerous Putin.


 (to be continued)

Tuesday 3 August 2021

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

 Finally, Merkel has been hoist by her own petard over Nord Stream2.

 

A small bomb has blown up in the face of Merkel. And the 'small' bomb resides within the 2,135 page of Ukraine's Association Agreement with the EU.

As David M. Herszenhorn  (left) explains,

"It was a bold, bureaucratic retort to a geopolitical provocation that would make the wonkiest, most wizened Brussels civil servant proud: After the U.S. and Germany announced a deal last week on Russia’s controversial Nord Stream 2 gas project, Ukraine yanked out its 2,135-page Association Agreement with the EU, and invoked two provisions to demand urgent consultations with the European Commission and the German government.
...
A partner nation with hopes of one day joining the EU finally had the chutzpah to stand up and openly demand that its rights be respected by the Commission and Germany, the biggest, most powerful EU member country, rather than being cowed into silence for fear of angering or offending its wealthy Western patrons.

.....according to Article 274 of the 2014 agreement, the EU and its member states are obliged to “consult and coordinate” with Ukraine on energy “infrastructure developments” and “shall cooperate on matters related to trade in natural gas, sustainability and security of supply." (Politico : 26 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As Herszenhorn further points out,

"[Svitlana] Zalishchuk said that in the case of Nord Stream 2, Germany appeared to be violating provisions of the EU's Third Energy Package, a legislative package governing the gas and electricity market that Ukraine adopted as its own national law.

"You cannot demand Ukraine to reform itself in accordance with these European rules and then violate these European rules," she said. "This is bizarre and in particular with Nord Stream 2." (ibid Herszenhorn)

Furthermore, as the FT Editorial Board explains,

"... the Biden administration reached an agreement with Berlin allowing completion of the Nord Stream2 gas pipeline — which poses a serious security and economic threat to Ukraine in return for flimsy assurances and compensation for Kyiv. The “deal” — in reality, just a statement — does a grave disservice to Ukraine.
...
The agreement is flawed on all levels. Commitments to counter Russian misbehaviour are vague, the green energy fund will not cover Kyiv’s losses, and the offer of German help on extending gas transit is merely a “promise to try”. (Financial Times : 1 August 2021) (my emphasis)

Crucially, the FT Editorial Board further explains that,

"For Washington and Berlin to agree a deal crucial to Ukraine’s interests with no one from Kyiv in the room is a gift to Putin’s narrative that it is fine for big powers to decide the fate of smaller ones. Even the timing, with German elections in September, is odd. It would surely have made sense to engage with Berlin’s next government — likely to include the Greens, who oppose Nord Stream." (ibid FT Editorial Board)

But there is more.

As reported by UNIAN,

"[Putin's Russia] are preparing in advance for the probable scenario of counteracting the certification of the pipeline and the operator, as well as the commissioning of the pipeline. By reducing the supply of natural gas, Gazprom has already provoked record prices for it in the EU in early August - more than $ 500.
...
When the issue of certification and commissioning of PP-2 arises closer to winter, Gazprom will issue an ultimatum - more gas for the EU in exchange for removing all obstacles. Preliminary preparations for an open act of blackmail are already underway." (UNIAN : 3 August 2021) (my emphasis) (google translated)

And another front has opened up in the war between Putin and Ukraine.

As Roman Olearchyk and Max Seddon (left) report,

"A $3.7bn bridge across the Kerch Strait linking Crimea with mainland Russia has become a conduit for trucks ferrying water for locals to take away in plastic containers. Popular Black Sea tourist resorts can turn on their taps for just a few hours a day during peak droughts, while the canal has filled with grass and weeds.

Crimea’s agricultural output has fallen owing to a lack of irrigation, making it all but impossible to grow water-intensive crops such as rice.
...
With tensions rising, Russia deployed tens of thousands of troops and advanced weapons to Crimea this spring, as well as to the border of the two breakaway eastern regions where Moscow-backed separatists have battled government troops into an eighth year." (Financial Times : 29 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As much as US President Biden is trying to gift to Angela Merkel a fully operational Nord Stream2 before she retires into the sunset of political oblivion, this gift is not as easy to bring to fruition as they both first thought.

Zelensky is finally using his political capital wisely.

We now await the Biden-Zelensky meeting that is scheduled to take place at the end of August.

 (to be continued)