Will Putin now press the atomic button?

As reported by Alexander Smith,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he held a “long and meaningful call” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday, a long-anticipated first contact between the leaders since Russia’s invasion 14 months ago." (NBC News : 26 April 2023) (my emphasis)
 

 Elena Salvoni and AFP: Mail Online: 26 April 2023

 

 But, as reported by Joe Mcdonald

"Chinese leader Xi Jinping faces daunting obstacles if he is serious about trying to help end Russia’s 14-month-old war in Ukraine.

The biggest: Neither side is ready to stop fighting." (The Globe and Mail : 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Joe McDonald further reports that,

"While Russia is trying to move borders by annexing portions of Ukraine, Beijing is intensely sensitive about respecting territorial sovereignty. It says borders must be respected and no country has a right to meddle in another’s affairs." (ibid Joe McDonald)

Elena Salvoni and AFP: Mail Online: 26 April 2023

 

Let us recall that recent 3 day visit to Putin in Moscow by China's President Xi Jinping.

 

As reported by Helen Davidson and Justin McCurry,

"Xi’s trip to Moscow has been viewed as a major boost for his strategic partner Putin, who is subject to an international criminal court warrant over accusations of unlawfully deporting Ukrainian children. The Chinese leader is expected to continue to position himself as a potential peacemaker in the Ukraine war during his two-day visit to Russia – his first state visit since the invasion." (The Guardian : 21 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Katerina Ang and Christian Shepherd,

"China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, hailed the “substantial achievements” of close cooperation with Russia’s military and said China is ready to deepen the partnership to “make new contributions to stability and security,” in the latest sign of Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine.

Li’s trip to Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, follows similar recent visits by top Chinese leaders. Such displays of camaraderie have intensified concern that China is ready to provide lethal aid in support of the invasion." (The Washington Post : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Namita Singh : Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023)

With this in mind, the euphoria about the call between Ukraine's president Zelensky and China's president Xi Jinping may be short-lived.

What is rather disconcerting, as reported by Peter Beaumont, Emma Graham-Harrison and Amy Hawkins, is that,

"Providing further details of the contact [between Ukraine's president Zelensky and China's president Xi Jinping], a report on Chinese state TV said Xi had told the Ukrainian leader: “Negotiation is the only viable way out,” adding: “There is no winner in a nuclear war.”  (The Guardian : 26 April 2023) (my emphasis)

The big question is : Why did Xi Jinping warn Zelensky that, “Negotiation is the only viable way out,” adding: “There is no winner in a nuclear war.” ?

Was this a signal to Zelensky that Putin is ready to "press the 'nuclear' red button"?

Underlining Putin's 'threat' of nuclear war we now have his 'glove puppet', Dmitry Medvedev, once again threatening that Putin is ready to unleash Armageddon upon the world.

As reported by Will Stewart, 

"Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev (left) has warned that the planet is on the verge of a nuclear world war, and Vladimir Putin is ready to be the first to press the atomic button.

Medvedev, one of Putin's closest henchmen, chose an audience of Russian teenagers to threaten Armageddon - blaming the West for the cliff edge." (Mail Online : 25 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 Further reinforcing Medvedev's claim that Putin is "ready to be the first to press the atomic button", Chris Jewers reports that,

"Russia is moving closer to a nuclear conflict with the United States due to Washington's support for Ukraine, Moscow has warned.

Vladimir Yermakov (right), the foreign ministry's head of nuclear non-proliferation, told TASS news agency that Washington is escalating the risks through its conduct with the Kremlin - the latest in a series of threats from top Russian officials." (Mail Online : 25 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Lidia Kelly : Reuters: 25 April 2023)

Does Putin's ramping up of the threat through his 'siloviki' acolytes to unleash 'nuclear' war upon the world tell us something about his 'mental' state because of the rapidly deteriorating state of his health?

It does seem that there is an urgency on the part of Putin to 'throw everything' at Ukraine to achieve some sort of 'victory' over Ukraine's fighting force.

As reported by Emma Graham-Harrison in Dnipro (left),

"Russia has launched a wave of missile attacks across many of Ukraine’s biggest cities, killing a mother and young child in the port city of Dnipro, and four people at a high-rise apartment building in the central city of Uman.

Air raid alarms were active across the country in the early hours of Friday morning, while explosions were heard in Kyiv, and southern Mykolaiv was targeted again.

The attack came less than 24 hours after four cruise missiles, apparently launched from the sea, hit civilian buildings in the city, killing at least one person and abruptly ending nearly four months of relative calm there." (The Guardian : 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Has the fact that Beijing is intensely sensitive about respecting territorial sovereignty, and that borders must be respected and no country has a right to meddle in another’s affairs, pushed Putin to be ready to be the first to press the atomic button? (cf: Will Stewart)

Will Putin now press the atomic button?

IMPORTANT! UPDATE 1: 29 April 2023

Micaela Burrow reports that,

"The U.S. deployed a special nuclear security team to install radiation detectors in Ukraine that could identify the origin of any nuclear weapon that attacks the country, according to The New York Times.
...
The Nuclear Emergency Support Team, a division of the Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), is helping deploy sensors “throughout the region” that have the ability “to characterize the size, location and effects of any nuclear explosion,” a spokesperson for the agency told the NYT.

The sensors will deny Moscow “any opportunity to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine without attribution,” the spokesperson added." (Shore News Network: 28 April 2023) (my emphasis)

The deployment of this US 'Nuclear Security Team' to Ukraine underscores the growing concern that Putin may, indeed, 'press the atomic button'.

 

(to be continued)

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Will Putin risk attending the BRICS conference in South Africa?

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (right) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us recall, as I wrote in my blog entry (6 April 2023)  that,

"At the start of Putin's 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for 'talks' with Putin as Putin's forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV "doodlebug" bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping's recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of "talks", as he initially had with Putin himself,  to end Putin's war with Ukraine."

Furthermore, as previously reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

"Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine."(Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

We now have China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye (right), questioning the current international and legal status of former USSR countries.

According to ambassador Lu Shaye,

“Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country,” Lu said. (Patrick Wintour : The guardian : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us also recall that in April of 2022, as reported by Philip Blenkinsop and Yew Lun Tian,

"China offered the European Union assurances on Friday that it would seek peace in Ukraine but said this would be on its own terms, deflecting pressure for a tougher stance towards Russia.

Premier Li Keqiang (left) told EU leaders that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way", while President Xi Jinping said he hoped the EU would treat China "independently", in a nod to Europe's close ties with the United States." (Reuters : 2 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Thus, Lu Shaye was simply reinforcing what Premier Li Keqiang told EU leaders in April of 2022 viz. that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way" 

The push-back against Lu Shaye's remarks about former members of the USSR not having, " ... international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country has been swift.

As reported by  Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard (right),

"Lu’s comments triggered furious reactions, particularly in the former Soviet bloc countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which announced plans to summon Chinese diplomats in their capitals. The Biden administration had already expressed irritation with Macron on his outreach to China, according to people familiar with the matter." (Bloomberg : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

( Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard : Bloomberg : 23 April 2023)

Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard go on to report that,

"When it comes to the war in Ukraine, people familiar with the Biden administration’s thinking said that the White House was annoyed by what they see as Macron freelancing on a delicate diplomatic issue without consulting with allies." (ibid Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard)

South Africa has now joined political forces with Brazil's president Lula Da Silva and France's president Macron in pushing for Canada to help broker for peace in Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview, as reported by Dylan Robertson,

"South Africa's envoy to Ottawa [Rieaz Shaik] is urging Canada to help broker an end to Russia's war in Ukraine, arguing that sending arms to Kyiv will only prolong a dangerous conflict that is aggravating hunger in developing countries." (CTV News : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

(CTV News : 23 April 2023)

Dylan Robertson further reports that :-

• South Africa is among 32 countries that have abstained from United Nations votes calling on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine.
•  Soviet support decades ago for anti-colonial movements also prompts some to voice support for Moscow, even though Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.
•  Shaik said the United Nations Security Council must broker a resolution to the conflict, even if it requires a reform of an institution that has largely followed the same rules since 1945 and gives Russia veto powers.
•  He argued this approach would bear more fruit than Ukraine and its Western allies refusing to undertake peace talks with Moscow until Russia returns all occupied territory. (ibid Dylan Robertson)
  

This sudden call for peace in Putin's war with Ukraine by South Africa may have something to do with the fact that,

"South African authorities will have to grapple with whether to enforce an International Criminal Court warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he follows through on plans to attend the BRICS Summit -- which also includes Brazil, India and China -- this August in Johannesburg." (ibid Dylan Robertson)

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa (left) now finds himself in a rather difficult and tricky political position on this issue.

Is the Rieaz Shaik interview (cf. Dylan Robertson), in which the political position of South Africa towards Putin's war with Ukraine was made internationally public, a prelude to laying the political ground for Putin to attend the BRICS conference in South Africa without having to be arrested? 

As reported by  Namita Singh (left),

"Earlier, Mr Putin admitted on Sunday that he is facing “serious challenges” as he celebrated the second Orthodox Easter of his war with Ukraine." (Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

It is telling that, as reported by James Kilner,

"Vladimir Putin will promote Ukrainian war veterans as candidates for his United Russia party in regional elections this year, local media has reported, reinforcing the “militarisation” of Russia...." (The Telegraph : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

And as reported by Telegraph Online,

 

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (left) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

The Kremlin 'knives are out' for Putin and Macron, Xi Jinping, Lula Da Silva, and Cyril Ramaphosa have no control over the growing discord amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.

 

Will Putin now risk attending the upcoming BRICS conference in South Africa?  

UPDATE 1: (24 April 2023 @ 18.21)

 

Robert Greenall reports that,

 

"China has distanced itself from the remarks of one of its envoys who questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet countries.
...
On Monday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning rejected Mr Lu's position, saying Beijing respected the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries and upheld the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter." (BBC News : 18 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This development must be very disconcerting for a beleaguered Putin.

(to be continued) 

Putin admits he is facing “serious challenges”

The last few days have seen a desperate flurry of international political maneuvering calling for "peace" in Putin's war with Ukraine by Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (left), a member of the BRICS forum comprising of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

As reported by Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes,

"Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva on Sunday again proposed establishing a group of countries not involved with the Russia-Ukraine war to broker peace, saying he had discussed the matter with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping earlier this week." (Reuters : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes go on to report that,

"He cited Xi (President of China!) and the president of the United Arab Emirates, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, both of whom he met this week.

Lula had previously said the group should gather countries not "encouraging" war, adding that nations that are supplying weapons should be convinced to stop doing so." (ibid Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes)

DW : 15 April 2023 YouTube

As early as January of this year Lula da Silva was already pushing the idea with Chancellor Olaf Scholtz of Germany of China's Xi Jinping's central role in "brokering" peace in Putin's war with Ukraine.

As reported by Lisandra Paraguassu and Sarah Marsh (left),

"Lula said Brazil will work with other countries to help achieve peace in Ukraine, as his country has not taken sides.

China has an important role to play in peace talks, he said, which he will discuss on a planned visit to Beijing in March." (Reuters : 31 January 2023) (my emphasis)

DW : 31 January 2023 : YouTube

The so-called 'condition' for being able to join these 'peace' talks specified by Lula da Silva  that,

"the [peace] group should gather countries not "encouraging" war, adding that nations that are supplying weapons should be convinced to stop doing so " (ibid Gabriel Araujo and Eduardo Simoes) has somewhat backfired.

As reported by Amy Hawkins (right),

"China approved the provision of lethal aid to Russia for its war in Ukraine but wanted any shipments to remain a secret, according to leaked US government documents.
...
The intelligence was gathered by US agents eavesdropping on Russia’s secret service discussions, the newspaper reported. The Russians said China’s central military commission wanted the shipments to remain secret, it added." (The Guardian : 14 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

As also reported by Katerina Ang and Christian Shepherd,

"China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu, hailed the “substantial achievements” of close cooperation with Russia’s military and said China is ready to deepen the partnership to “make new contributions to stability and security,” in the latest sign of Beijing’s commitment to its relationship with Moscow despite the war in Ukraine.

Li’s trip to Moscow, where he met Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, follows similar recent visits by top Chinese leaders. Such displays of camaraderie have intensified concern that China is ready to provide lethal aid in support of the invasion." (The Washington Post : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis) (cf also: Namita Singh : Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023)

Meanwhile, behind the scene of Lula da Silva putting forward Chinese president Xi Jinping as a (key?) member of this so-called "group of peacemakers", Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (left), will soon be treading the red-carpet as he visits Brazil.

As reported by TASS,

"Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov starts his Latin American tour on Monday from a visit to Brazil.

Lavrov will meet senior officials and hold talks with Foreign Minister of Brazil Mauro Vieira within the framework of the visit’s program." (TASS : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Not, it would seem, to be outdone by Brazilian president Lula da Silva's call for a "peace forum" headed by Xi Jinping, the Telegraph Online reports that,

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (right) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This call for an end to Putin's war with Ukraine, by one of his former closest and trusted advisors, is a powerful hint that serious cracks are occurring amongst Putin's "siloviki" and his generals.

As reported by Danielle Ong (left),

"Russian officials were allegedly planning to sabotage President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine while the leader was undergoing chemotherapy, leaked Pentagon documents reveal.

The papers, which were leaked on Discord last week, also suggested that the sabotage was planned by Russian National Security Council Secretary Nikolay Patrushev and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Gerasimov." (International Business Times : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Celebrity News : 15 April 2023: YouTube

This seemingly unconnected sequence of critical events viz.:-

• Brazilian president Lula da Silva's desperate call for a "peace forum" to end Putin's war with Ukraine, headed by Chinese president Xi Jinping,
• Putin meeting with China’s defense minister, Gen. Li Shangfu,
• Yevgeny Prigozhin causing a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result, 
• the growing and credible reports about the parlous state of Putin's health, and,
• members of Putin's 'siloviki' planning to sabotage President Vladimir Putin's invasion of Ukraine while the leader is undergoing chemotherapy

underscores, as reported by  Namita Singh (left) that,

"Earlier, Mr Putin admitted on Sunday that he is facing “serious challenges” as he celebrated the second Orthodox Easter of his war with Ukraine." (Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, it is telling that, as reported by James Kilner,

"Vladimir Putin will promote Ukrainian war veterans as candidates for his United Russia party in regional elections this year, local media has reported, reinforcing the “militarisation” of Russia...." (The Telegraph : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Is this Putin's attempt to secure the legacy of his reinstating "Novorossiya" (read: Crimea) into Russian territory as his health continues to fade?

 

UPDATE 1: 18 April 2023

 

Will Stewart (left) has just reported that,

" Vladimir Putin appeared to limp as he was filmed arriving for his second visit inside an occupied area of Ukraine.

Amid speculation about the Russian dictator's health, Putin was seen exiting a helicopter on a supposedly spontaneous visit to visit his top commanders.
...
It comes over speculation Putin has cancer and there are plans to "throw" the war in Ukraine while he's undergoing treatment, according to a leaked US intelligence report last week.

And the dictator recently also reported “partial loss of sensation in his right arm and leg” requiring urgent medical attention, according to General SVR Telegram channel, a Russian outlet which frequently makes claims about his ailing health" (Mirror : 18 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

 

 

Will Stewart : Mirror : 18 April 2023

 

(to be continued)

Has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty?

Prussian military analyst Carl von Clausewitz (left) in his posthumously published book, Vom Kriege (1832), outlines what has become defined as the "fog of war". He describes the "fog of war" as,

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty. A sensitive and discriminating judgment is called for; a skilled intelligence to scent out the truth." (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)

The recent flooding on the internet of "highly classified Pentagon documents" revealing, amongst other things, the strategy of Ukraine in its upcoming offensive against Putin's forces, has caused an outbreak of public anger both in the US and in Ukraine, as well as amongst Ukraine's international supporters in its war with Putin.

Update 1 : BBC News : 12 April 2023

As reported by Natasha Bertrand and Kylie Atwood (right),

"Highly classified Pentagon documents leaked online in recent weeks have provided a rare window into how the US spies on allies and foes alike, deeply rattling US officials, who fear the revelations could jeopardize sensitive sources and compromise important foreign relationships.
...
 The official also pointed out that it was alarming to see one of the documents from February titled “Russia-Ukraine: Battle for the Donbas Region Likely Heading for a Stalemate Throughout 2023.” The document notes the challenges with assessing the “endurance of Ukraine’s operations.” (CNN : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

CNN : 10 April 2023

Update 2: Alex Hern has just reported that,

"A damaging batch of documents leaked from the Pentagon appears to have been initially shared on the video game chat platform Discord in an effort to win an argument about the war in Ukraine, according to open-source intelligence analysts.
...
The bizarre provenance of the leak may seem unusual but it is far from the first time that a dispute between gamers has sparked an intelligence breach, with the overlapping communities causing problems for military and gaming platforms alike" (The Guardian : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This "leak of Pentagon documents" has, no doubt, emboldened Putin to accelerate his "scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine. 

As reported by Arpan Rai and Maryam Zakir-Hussain (left),

"A Ukrainian general says Russia is sending more elite troops including special forces to support the Wagner Group in the battle for Bakhmut, amid signs of fatigue.
...
He added that Vladimir Putin’s soldiers are “actively using their artillery and aviation, destroying the city that they cannot capture”. (The independent : 11 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Underscoring Putin's "scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine, Putin's 'glove puppet' Dmitry Medvedev's latest contribution to "political debate" stated that Ukraine was "not needed by its citizens themselves".

As reported by John Varga,

"In his latest contribution to "political debate", the former deputy prime minister [Dmitry Medvedev] once again took aim at Ukraine's status as a sovereign state.

He claimed that it will cease to exist because neither the USA, Europe nor Africa needed a "post-Soviet republic".

He added that the country was "not needed by its citizens themselves". (Express : 8 April 2023) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting,

"In language that closely resembled Nazi-era terminology, [Dmitry Medvedev]  branded the country's political leaders as "under-Ukrainians". The German Nazis called the Jews "Under people" (Untermenschen), as well as the Slavs." (ibid John Varga) (my emphasis)

If the current "leaked Pentagon documents" have emboldened Putin to continue with his 'scorched earth' strategy against Ukraine, it would seem that Chinese President Xi Jinping and French President Emmanuel Macron have made a "political deal" during their recent tête-à-tête in Beijing in which :-

• Xi Jinping would pressure Putin to negotiate an end to his war with Ukraine 
• whilst Macron would try to distance the EU from the current spat between the US and China over Taiwan.

As reported by Jennifer Rankin (right),

"Emmanuel Macron has flown into a storm of criticism after he said Europe should not become a “vassal” and must avoid being drawn into any conflict between the US and China over Taiwan.
...
Rahman added that Macron’s interview was being seen as a parting gift to Xi – “another doomed attempt (after Putin) to sweet-talk an autocrat” – and suggested the French president may have been trying to boost his poll ratings in France by emulating De Gaulle. (The Guardian : 10 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

Microsoft Start (Firstpost) : 11 April 2023

What is rather puzzling is that notwithstanding the recent flooding on the internet of "highly classified Pentagon documents", and an acceleration of Putin's 'scorched earth" strategy against Ukraine, Tim McNulty reported that,

"Vladimir Putin has reportedly declared a willingness to open negotiations with NATO over Ukraine during a meeting with İbrahim Kalın, the Presidential Spokesperson of Turkey. The Kremlin's representative, Dmitriy Peskov, announced that during the meeting Putin admitted that Russia was not looking to escape talk over Ukraine indefinitely, and was prepared to enter into talks to end the conflict which has left thousands dead and displaced millions of people." (Express : 7 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Tim McNulty further reported that the day BEFORE Putin ostensibly declared his "willingness" for some sort of 'peace talks' to end his war with Ukraine,

"..... Chinese leader Xi Jinping called Thursday for peace talks over Ukraine after French President Emmanuel Macron appealed to him to "bring Russia to its senses," but Xi gave no indication Beijing would use its leverage as Vladimir Putin's diplomatic partner to press for a settlement. (ibid Tim McNulty)

 As Carl von Clausewitz wrote in 1832,

"War is the realm of uncertainty; three quarters of the factors on which action in war is based are wrapped in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty."

Pacing around in his bunker, has Putin wrapped himself up in a fog of greater or lesser uncertainty in his ongoing war with Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)

For how long can Putin still cling to power?

At the start of Putin's 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for 'talks' with Putin as Putin's forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV "doodlebug" bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping's recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of "talks" as he initially had with Putin himself to end Putin's war with Ukraine.

BBC News : 5 April 2023 : YouTube

As reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

"Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine.

“China, with its close relationship with Russia, which has been reaffirmed in recent days, can play a major role,” he told members of the French community in Paris. “Do we agree with everything [in China’s plan]?” he said, referring to China’s 12-point peace plan unveiled in February. “No,” he said. “However it shows … a will to play a responsible role and try to build a pathway to peace.” (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

As with his "talks" with Putin shortly after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, "others are more skeptical about China's intentions". (ibid Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch)

As Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch, further report,

"Similarly, British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly (left) told POLITICO on the fringes of the NATO summit that while there are “certain elements” within the plan that Britain supports, the U.K. would like to see China “making good on those statements and actually working towards demanding that Russia respects those things (e.g. Ukraine's territorial sovereignty) as well.”  (Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis) 

President Zelensky (right: Zelensky and wife) has renewed hopes of 'peace talks' with Putin by suggesting, as reported by Christian Oliver, that,

"Ukraine renewed Western hopes for peace talks last night after suggesting it could be 'ready' to discuss the future of Crimea with Russia once Kyiv's forces reached the border of Putin's illegally occupied peninsula.

Andriy Sybiha, a top advisor to President Volodymyr Zelensky and deputy head of his office, told the Financial Times that Kyiv could soon be 'ready' to enter talks." (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's current state of mind would indicate, however, that "peace talks" with Zelensky would indeed be akin to Putin signing his own 'political' death warrant.

As reported by Rachael Bunyan (left),

"[Gleb] Karakulov (an officer in the Kremlin leader's secretive elite personal security service) depicted Putin as an increasingly isolated leader who lives in an 'information vacuum' in heavily guarded residences, which he called 'bunkers'.
...
He said Putin's paranoia has deepened since he invaded Ukraine and detailed how the despot ordered a bunker to be set up at the Russian Embassy in Kazakhstan and secured with a secure communications line last October.   

'It is a kind of paranoia,' Karakulov said. 'He is pathologically afraid for his life.'" (Mail Online : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

NBC News : 5 April 2023

Underlining Putin's current state of mind, Christian Oliver reports that,

 "Oleksiy Danilov (left), the secretary of Ukraine's National Security and Defense Council, said the West must be on high alert, having in the past failed to be ready for the collapse of the Soviet Union.

He said Kyiv believes Russia is going to fall apart in 'spectacular' fashion within the next few years.
...
He said Russia has lost its power over once-loyal allies in Asia, with China now waiting for the collapse of Russia to take the Siberian Far East where there are significant Chinese populations." (Mail Online : 4 April 2023) (my emphasis) (c.f. also: The Times : 3 April 2023)

As also reported by Rhiannon Du Cann (right),

"Professor Galeotti told Express.co.uk that the 70-year-old President’s regime is now so “brittle” that an inevitable crisis will most likely be the cause of his fall.

He said: “It looks still very tough but it's that much less flexible, less able to cope with crises. The point is that one of the guaranteed things in politics is you’ll be confronted with the unexpected at some point.

“When that happens, I think that Putin and Putin’s regime will be that much less able to deal with it. I have no idea if that’s going to be in a month, or a year, or a decade’s time.” (Express : 30 March 2023) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as reported earlier by Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent),

"Despite Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s claim that the Russian economy is expected to grow in 2023, “retail sales remain in a contraction that’s already more drawn out than its declines” during the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Bloomberg’s latest report.

Bloomberg reported the consumer sector accounts for about half of Russia's economy.

In January, retail sales in Russia shrank an estimated 10.7% from last year, “falling for a 10th straight month in a stretch longer than their crash at the height of the pandemic in 2020,” according to the report. Bloomberg also says that in December the real wages “probably fell” at the “sharpest pace in five months.” (Yahoo News (The Kyiv Independent) : 1 March 2023) (my emphasis)

For how long can Putin still cling to power?

(to be continued)