Will Putin risk attending the BRICS conference in South Africa?

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (right) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us recall, as I wrote in my blog entry (6 April 2023)  that,

"At the start of Putin's 2023 war with Ukraine, Emmanuel Macron, former banker and currently President of France, constantly pushed for 'talks' with Putin as Putin's forces relentlessly bombarded the civilians and infrastructure of Ukraine with swarms of his Iranian UAV "doodlebug" bombers.

And today, in light of Xi Jinping's recent meetings in Moscow with Putin, Macron has jetted off to Beijing on a 3-day visit to China to meet with Xi Jinping, with essentially the same political framework of "talks", as he initially had with Putin himself,  to end Putin's war with Ukraine."

Furthermore, as previously reported by Clea Caulcutt, Lili Bayer and Suzanne Lynch,

"Within hours of touching down in China Wednesday, French President Emmanuel Macron made clear one of the main objectives of his visit— ensuring China plays a role in forging peace in Ukraine."(Politico : 5 April 2023) (my emphasis)

We now have China's ambassador to France, Lu Shaye (right), questioning the current international and legal status of former USSR countries.

According to ambassador Lu Shaye,

“Even these ex-Soviet Union countries do not have effective status, as we say, under international law because there’s no international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country,” Lu said. (Patrick Wintour : The guardian : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

Let us also recall that in April of 2022, as reported by Philip Blenkinsop and Yew Lun Tian,

"China offered the European Union assurances on Friday that it would seek peace in Ukraine but said this would be on its own terms, deflecting pressure for a tougher stance towards Russia.

Premier Li Keqiang (left) told EU leaders that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way", while President Xi Jinping said he hoped the EU would treat China "independently", in a nod to Europe's close ties with the United States." (Reuters : 2 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Thus, Lu Shaye was simply reinforcing what Premier Li Keqiang told EU leaders in April of 2022 viz. that Beijing would push for peace in "its own way" 

The push-back against Lu Shaye's remarks about former members of the USSR not having, " ... international accord to concretise their status as a sovereign country has been swift.

As reported by  Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard (right),

"Lu’s comments triggered furious reactions, particularly in the former Soviet bloc countries Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, which announced plans to summon Chinese diplomats in their capitals. The Biden administration had already expressed irritation with Macron on his outreach to China, according to people familiar with the matter." (Bloomberg : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

( Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard : Bloomberg : 23 April 2023)

Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard go on to report that,

"When it comes to the war in Ukraine, people familiar with the Biden administration’s thinking said that the White House was annoyed by what they see as Macron freelancing on a delicate diplomatic issue without consulting with allies." (ibid Samy Adghirni and Jenny Leonard)

South Africa has now joined political forces with Brazil's president Lula Da Silva and France's president Macron in pushing for Canada to help broker for peace in Ukraine.

In a wide-ranging interview, as reported by Dylan Robertson,

"South Africa's envoy to Ottawa [Rieaz Shaik] is urging Canada to help broker an end to Russia's war in Ukraine, arguing that sending arms to Kyiv will only prolong a dangerous conflict that is aggravating hunger in developing countries." (CTV News : 23 April 2023) (my emphasis)

(CTV News : 23 April 2023)

Dylan Robertson further reports that :-

• South Africa is among 32 countries that have abstained from United Nations votes calling on Russia to end its invasion of Ukraine.
•  Soviet support decades ago for anti-colonial movements also prompts some to voice support for Moscow, even though Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union.
•  Shaik said the United Nations Security Council must broker a resolution to the conflict, even if it requires a reform of an institution that has largely followed the same rules since 1945 and gives Russia veto powers.
•  He argued this approach would bear more fruit than Ukraine and its Western allies refusing to undertake peace talks with Moscow until Russia returns all occupied territory. (ibid Dylan Robertson)
  

This sudden call for peace in Putin's war with Ukraine by South Africa may have something to do with the fact that,

"South African authorities will have to grapple with whether to enforce an International Criminal Court warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin if he follows through on plans to attend the BRICS Summit -- which also includes Brazil, India and China -- this August in Johannesburg." (ibid Dylan Robertson)

South African president Cyril Ramaphosa (left) now finds himself in a rather difficult and tricky political position on this issue.

Is the Rieaz Shaik interview (cf. Dylan Robertson), in which the political position of South Africa towards Putin's war with Ukraine was made internationally public, a prelude to laying the political ground for Putin to attend the BRICS conference in South Africa without having to be arrested? 

As reported by  Namita Singh (left),

"Earlier, Mr Putin admitted on Sunday that he is facing “serious challenges” as he celebrated the second Orthodox Easter of his war with Ukraine." (Microsoft (The Independent) : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

It is telling that, as reported by James Kilner,

"Vladimir Putin will promote Ukrainian war veterans as candidates for his United Russia party in regional elections this year, local media has reported, reinforcing the “militarisation” of Russia...." (The Telegraph : 16 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

And as reported by Telegraph Online,

 

"The head of Russia's mercenary Wagner group [Yevgeny Prigozhin] (left) caused a stir by saying that an end to the war in Ukraine would be an "ideal result."
...
"The ideal option would be to announce the end of the special military operation and declare that Russia has achieved all of its planned goals — and, in some respects, we really have achieved them," Prigozhin wrote in comments that were picked up by Ukrainian media." (Telegraph Online : 17 April 2023) (my emphasis)

 

The Kremlin 'knives are out' for Putin and Macron, Xi Jinping, Lula Da Silva, and Cyril Ramaphosa have no control over the growing discord amongst Putin's 'siloviki'.

 

Will Putin now risk attending the upcoming BRICS conference in South Africa?  

UPDATE 1: (24 April 2023 @ 18.21)

 

Robert Greenall reports that,

 

"China has distanced itself from the remarks of one of its envoys who questioned the sovereignty of Ukraine and other former Soviet countries.
...
On Monday Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning rejected Mr Lu's position, saying Beijing respected the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries and upheld the purposes and principles of the United Nations Charter." (BBC News : 18 April 2023) (my emphasis)

This development must be very disconcerting for a beleaguered Putin.

(to be continued)