A dangerous Putin has run out of 'alibis'.

 The change-over of  the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from General Oleksandr Syrskyi to Maj Gen Mykhailo Drapatyi, and which initially generated much internet speculation following on from the removal of Mykhailo Fedorov as the then Minister of  Defence, has best been described by Anna Danylchuk (left).

 She reported,

 "He [Maj Gen Mykhailo Drapatyi] heard the people, he heard the military, and President Zelensky heard us.

Which is a beautiful proof of how democracy works in Ukraine." (Anna From Ukraine : 22 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

 Anna From Ukraine : 22 July 2026: YouTube

As CNN also reports,
 
"Zelensky just completed a 'generational' shake up of Ukraine's top brass' ". (CNN: 22 July 2026. YouTube) (my emphasis)  

 

CNN: 22 July 2026. YouTube

And whilst this political 'hiccup' in Ukraine was being 'democratically' resolved in Ukraine, the Ukrainian army continued to dismantle Putin's war machine.

The BBC now reports that,

"Ukraine has hit Russia's biggest online retailer, Wildberries, the second time in four days. 

It's a hugely important logistics hub which President Zelensky says has been providing the Russian army with drone components ... (BBC: 22 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

BBC: 22 July 2026 : YouTube

As Ukraine continues to accelerate Russian losses in Putin's war with Ukraine, Arpan Rai (left) and James C. Reynolds (right) report that,

"Vladimir Putin’s advisors increasingly blame him for Russia’s mounting losses in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky said on Wednesday, hailing the success of Kyiv’s protracted campaign of strikes deep behind enemy lines.

The Ukrainian president wrote that Ukraine’s buoyed confidence on the battlefield is “creating a new atmosphere” around his Russian counterpart, with allies losing faith in Putin’s ability to continue to prosecute the four-year conflict.

 “A very toxic atmosphere,” Zelensky assessed. “He alone is the reason this war began and hasn’t ended. Putin alone is responsible for the losses Russians continue to suffer. His retinue understands this - they are signalling it to us and to our partners.” (The Independent on MSN: 23 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Putin now finds himself surrounded by 'staring eyes' in the Kremlin that is increasing his paranoia and 'mounting fear' of him being overthrown.

We now, suddenly, read that,

"U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (left) met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (right) on Thursday in the Philippines for talks where he was expected to renew the prospect of the U.S. trying to broker an end to the war in Ukraine.
… 
the Russian Foreign Ministry in Moscow said he emphasized to Rubio "the unacceptability of further arming" Ukraine and "the destabilizing policies of European countries, which continue to seek a 'strategic defeat' for Russia." (Michelle L. Price and Jim Gomez: AP : 23 July 2026) (my emphasis)

In other words, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, once again, simply ignores China and North Korea constantly supplying Putin with "military arms", and 'demands'  Zelensky 'unconditionally' surrenders Ukraine to a demented, paranoid, and 'fearful' Putin.

At the same time, as reported by Rebecca Robinson (left),

"Vladimir Putin is reportedly eyeing up four new targets as he struggles to secure a victory over Ukraine. Lithuania's Defence Minister Robertas Kaunas said the Russian president could turn his attention to the Baltic states - Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia - and Poland." (Express: 22 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Does Putin having a "death wish" as the Ukraine army continues to succeed in defeating him on the battlefield, or does he simply wish to start a new war with NATO. 

Or is this simply his bluster to avert the 'staring eyes' in the Kremlin that is increasing his paranoia and 'mounting fear'.

Whichever it may be, all fingers are beginning to point at Putin as the root cause of what is happening in Russia.

A dangerous Putin has run out of 'alibis'. 

UPDATE: 23 July 2026: GMT 16:14 

Putin's economic problems has just exploded. 

Putin has suspended bond issuance indefinitely. 

As reported by TLDR News EU,

"That was until  earlier this week, when the Kremlin announced that they were literally unable to find anybody to buy their latest issuance of bonds.

And so were suspending bond issuance for the  foreseeable future. 
… 

Unfortunately for Putin its  not who ... or anyone ... can bail out the Kremlin." (TLDR News EU : 23 July 2026) (my emphasis)

 

Excerpt :TLDR News EU : 23 July 2026: YouTube  

 

This action of Putin's will only accelerate his paranoia and 'mounting fear' of him being overthrown.

  

 (to be continued)

The hardline 'siloviki' are pushing Putin towards nuclear war

Let us recall that, 

Like Putin, [the Head of the Russian Orthodox Church], Patriarch Kirill, also has expensive tastes in watches.

Lest this be made public, a picture of him (April 2012) wearing a $30,000 Breguet watch was doctored so that the watch vanished from his wrist and was not on public view.  (Michael Schwirtz (left): New York Times: 5 April 2012) (my emphasis) (cf also: blog entry Friday, 10 October 2014)

However, sometimes things do go awry, as the pictures below goes to prove.

They forgot to 'doctor' the reflection of the watch on the table.

 

Now you see it (un-doctored)       Now you don't (doctored)

An article in Wikipedia describes Patriarch Kirill as,

"A close ally of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Kirill has described Putin's rule as "a miracle of God"
… 
He openly supported Putin's presidential bid in 2012 and said that Putin corrected the historically wrong path of Russia after coming to power, and conducted a special prayer ceremony in honor of Putin's re-election twice, on 7 May 2012 and in May 2018" (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)  

Furthermore,

"Kirill's wealth was $4 billion, and a 2019 Novaya Gazeta report estimated his worth at $4 billion to $8 billion, although the figures have not been verified.  (ibid Wikipedia)

Fast forward to 2026 and, thanks to Putin's war with Ukraine, it now seems that the Russian Orthodox Church and Patriarch Kirill also has to contend with a strong resurgence in pre-Christian Russian Shamanic beliefs. 

Dariia Mykhailenko (left) now reports that,

"Russia's worsening fuel shortage has triggered growing demand for unconventional services, with fortune tellers, magicians, and practitioners of esoteric rituals increasingly marketing ceremonies they claim can reduce fuel consumption or "attract" gasoline to vehicle tanks, according to Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU). 

The agency said advertised services include a wax ritual to remove “negative energy” for about 1,500 rubles (roughly $19), the installation of a runic symbol for 7,000 rubles (nearly $90), and a service claiming to locate “magical needles” hidden inside a vehicle for 9,000 rubles (approximately $115). (United Media 24: 17 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Ukraine severely crippling Putin's oil industry is having more effects on the psyche of the Russian people than was bargained for.

Added to which, TVP World (reporter: right) reports that, 

"First it was lines at gasoline stations. Now it's food prices. The effects of the relentless Ukrainian campaign to degrade Russia's oil industry have spilled into the lives of ordinary citizens." (TVP  World : 16 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

Excerpt from: TVP  World : 16 July 2026: YouTube 

 It is no wonder that, as reported by PPR Global,

"Russians are abandoning the army, and Putin's new mobilization plan is sparking a riot even before its been announced". (PPR Global : 17 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)  

 

PPR Global : 17 July 2026 : YouTube 

Furthermore, in Denis Kapustin's [Founder and Commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps (left)] words,

 "Russian society is now living "in expectation of an approaching catastrophe" . (ibid PPR Global)

In my blog entry of  6 July 2026, I wrote that,

"This 'maniacal' bombing of Ukraine's cities by Putin simply underscores his tenuous hold onto power.

As the Russian people finally wake up to the fact that their current economic and social problems are solely due to his war with Ukraine, Putin has opened himself even more to stepping into a Black Swan event.

If before his finger simply wavered above the 'nuclear button', it now has a 'deliberation' that even his 'siloviki' are realising." (blog entry 6 July 2026)

And amongst many previous reports, CRUX now reported that,

"[There will be a] nuclear conflict if [UK and EU] troops are sent to Ukraine, Putin warns". (CRUX : 17 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

Putin's previous 'blusters' about "nuclear war with NATO" now has an urgency, and has opened himself up even more to stepping into a Black Swan event.

 This danger is further exacerbated by, as Jason Jay Smart (left) reports,

"The ultimate threat for Vladimir Putin's regime is not coming from those front lines. Rather it is coming from the men who keep him in power. New reporting shows that Russia's most powerful insiders are quietly jumping ship." (Jason Jay Smart : 18 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis) 

 

Jason Jay Smart : 18 July 2026 : YouTube 

Putin's deluded and imagined world of "Novorossiya", within which he constantly revolves during his waking hours, reveals an even more 'demented' mind.

The 'siloviki' hawks that surround and encourage Putin in his 'mental delusions' of victory over Ukraine, even in the face of the Russian army being decimated and defeated on the battleground, are now dangerously pushing him towards the abyss of  'nuclear' war. 

  

 (to be continued)

Putin is now at his most dangerous.

 

 

 

The last 8 days has filled the international political 'ether' with an avalanche of reports about Putin's horrendous missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians in Ukrainian cities, and the corresponding retaliation by Ukraine against Putin's oil infrastructure and armament manufacturing facilities throughout Russia.

As reported by CRUX,

"Ukraine launched a fresh wave of long-range drone strikes overnight on July 13th, targetting energy and industrial facilities in Russia's Stavropol and Krasnodar regions." (CRUX : 13 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck 15 more vessels from Russia's shadow fleet, according to a Pravda report on July 13." (ibid CRUX) 

 

 CRUX : 13 July 2026: YouTube 

And as reported by PPR Global,

"An entire sea [sea of Azov] has turned into a ghost. Nothing coming in [and] nothing going out
… 
Russia halts Don-Azov channel shipping. Closes Kerch Strait after Ukrainian tanker strikes.
...
Ukraine has no great navy, yet in the [Sea of] Azov Ukraine now effectively decides who passes and who does not". (PPR Global: 14 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

Excerpt from : PPR Global: 14 July 2026 : YouTube 

PPR Global further reports that,

"When Russia closed the [Don-Azov channel] it not only closed a canal, it did not only halt its military supplies, it severed an artery of its economy". (ibid PPR Global)

It is the critical disruption of Putin's oil economy by Ukraine's drones that is now negatively impacting his standing amongst the people of Russia.

In his analysis of the origin of this change from positivity to negativity towards Putin, Konstantin Samoilov (left) argues,

"That construct, the Czar's alibi, is what held Putin's numbers [of approval] up, long after the money and the pride [in invading and annexing Crimea in 2014] were gone.

It was his last armour." (Inside Russia: 14 July 2026 : YouTube) (cf. Video below)

He Betrayed Us”: How Fuel Lines Are Breaking Putin’s Alibi 

 

Excerpt from :- Inside Russia: 14 July 2026 : YouTube 

Adding to Putin's unravelling, CBS reported that,

"The Trump administration is ready to support heavy tariffs on Russian oil in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.

Questioner : What kind of new sanctions would this impose on Russia.

Torian Small (right) : I think that the top line that people would undoubtedly take from this is that 500% tariff that would apply to any country dealing business, especially as it relates to oil, with Russia ..." (CBS : 11 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

CBS : 11 July 2026 : YouTube 

The missiles that Putin rains down upon Ukraine's civilians have now begun to meet their match.

 As reported by the Kyiv Post,

"Ukraine successfully intercepted Russian ballistic missiles during a massive overnight attack, downing five as Moscow launched 145 aerial weapons against cities and critical infrastructure across the country.
… 
Last week, Zelensky (left) said Russia’s only remaining military advantage is its ability to launch ballistic missile attacks against Ukrainian civilians, arguing that Ukraine has become stronger both on the battlefield and in the air." (Kyiv Post : 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

And following on from Trump giving Zelensky the "green light" to make the US Patriot missile (Laura Gozzi and Sarah Rainsford  BBC News : 8 July 2026) for effectively shooting down Russian missiles, Lucy Pakhnyuk (right) now reports that,

"French President Emmanuel Macron (left: with Zelensky) said July 13 that France would allow Ukraine to produce French-designed cruise missiles, glide bombs, and air defense interceptors, marking the first time France has licensed the production of its weapons in Ukraine." (Kyiv Independent : 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom,

"Nine European countries and Ukraine announced the creation of a coalition to develop anti-ballistic capabilities in Europe to protect the continent." (Euronews on MSN; 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

 

PPR Global : 16 July 2026 : YouTube 

Aware that Putin, in these last few days, has been unravelling, 

"China has again told Russia not to even consider using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. " (Japan Times : 11 July 2026) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (6 July 2026),

"We can now expect Putin to throw a childish temper tantrum, ordering his diminishing military and 'siloviki' supporters of his 'maniacal' bombardment of Ukraine cities to absolutely increase his 'missile' death of Ukrainian civilians." (blog entry :  6 July 2026)

With 

• the Sea of Azov now practically controlled by Ukraine, 
• Russian people having to queue for hours to obtain meagre petrol supplies for their cars,
• the looming collapse of the wheat harvests because of the fuel shortages, thanks to Ukrainian drones,
• and the Russian people beginning to blame Putin for their living hardships;

Putin is totally bereft of ANY alibi's that  now can come to his rescue.

Putin is now at his most dangerous. 

  

 (to be continued)

Putin's finger is now deliberately poised above his 'nuclear' button.

 Kyiv • UNN reports that,

"{Putin's] yacht worth £100 million is heading to Murmansk over fears of Ukrainian drone strikes. It is being escorted by two Russian military ships.
… 
According to naval expert Emma Salisbury, the scale of the escort indicates serious concerns in the Kremlin.

"This looks like an excessive level of protection. Putin does not want to risk the yacht being detained by NATO ships or sunk by the Ukrainians," she noted.

The publication also writes that in recent months, Putin has significantly strengthened personal security measures. (Kyiv • UNN on MSN: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Earlier, as Mark Krutov and RFE/RL's Russian Service report,

"RFE/RL's Russian Service has found that a concrete platform has been erected and Russia's S-400 air-defense systems have been deployed on the grounds of the headquarters of the Innopraktika Foundation, a $1.7 billion government-backed project headed by Putin's youngest daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. (right)" (RadioFreeEurope : 27 June 2026) (my emphasis)

There are also reports beginning to appear that Putin's time as the Czar of Russia may soon  be coming to an end.

As I wrote in my previous blog,

"Konstantin Samoilov (left) has just informed us that, 

"Alexander Lunin (right) message on Instagram was viewed by over ... twelve million people in two days. 

And it was not taken down.

Twelve million people heard a soldier publicly threatening the Czar [Putin] and getting away with it. Publicly telling them that in case he's not met, Russian military will turn its weapons to the Kremlin" (The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis)   

Excerpt at end : The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026: YouTube 

Will this be the event that propels Putin even faster towards a Black Swan event?" (blog entry : 26 June 2026) 

And during the last week, like a demented 'maniac', Putin has thrown more and more bombs at Ukrainian cities, from drones to missiles, causing Ukrainian civilian deaths.

As reported by Sky  News,

"Kiev's night of horror in Ukraine show that Putin is now behind the battlefield.

Russia has launched its largest attack on the Ukrainian capital [Kyiv] this year" (Sky News: 3 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

 

 Sky News: 3 July 2026: YouTube

 

Ukraine continues to focus on the destruction of Putin's oil refineries and military targets, specifically to destroy Putin's capability to manufacture the drones and missiles of death that he is aiming at Ukrainian civilians in Ukrainian cities.

As a result of Ukraine's answer to Putin's bombing 'mania', fuel shortages are now being experienced practically throughout Russia,  

Konstantin Samoilov analyses the critical economic effects that this fuel shortage is having on the Russian economy, and comes to the conclusion that,

"Russia has entered a period of very fast economic changes.
… 
Russia's economy is falling apart, live, right now in front of our eyes. 
Economic reports now resemble reports from the war [with Ukraine]." (Inside Russia: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder that Putin is now reaching the stage of having to set up an exit route from Russia, ensuring the protection of his family and readying his yacht in Murmansk?  

To continue to feed his failing "meat-grinder" military strategy, Putin is now forced to try to recruit students to make up for his mounting losses in Ukraine.

As Olga Ivshina (first left), Anastasia Platonova (second left) & Sophia Volyanova, report,

"The campaign to encourage students at universities, technical colleges and vocational schools to sign army contracts began early this year, as Russia sought to sustain its war effort into a fifth year. It has focused particularly on those struggling academically or considering taking a break from their studies." (BBC News: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis)

This strategy of Putin to try to recruit students signifies his growing fear of losing his power, and possibly his life.

Furthermore, as Antonia Langford (right) reports, 

"Vladimir Putin is said to be planning a new wave of mobilisation as the flow of soldiers to Ukraine dries up.
… 
Eight sources inside the presidential administration and military enlistment apparatus told Verstka and Vazhnyye Istorii, both independent Russian outlets, that the idea of mobilisation was on the table for the first time since the disastrous call-up in 2022.
… 
Troop shortages have led to viral videos from the city of Penza showing balaclava-clad draft officers seizing people off the streets and hauling them to enlistment offices." (The Telegraph on Yahoo News: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis) 

And Trump, having 'somewhat' washed his hands from his war with Iran off, giving this 'thorny' diplomatic problem to his vice-president Vance to find a solution to his war with Iran, we now learn from CNA that, 

"United States President Donald Trump, speaking to Russian leader Vladimir Putin by telephone for nearly 90 minutes, offered to help find a solution to the Ukraine war, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said in comments made public early on Sunday (Jul 5)." (CNA: 6 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Yuri Ushakov (right) went on to report that, 

"Ushakov, who described the conversation as "business-like and quite constructive", said Russia sought "a political-diplomatic resolution of the conflict, with due account of Russia's fundamental approach". (ibid CNA)

In other words, only Zelensky's complete surrender to Putin's initial "Novorossiya" fantasy demands will end his war with Ukraine. 

Then we also have the call from Zelensky to Trump on Independence Day.

As reported by Sonya Bandouil and Volodymyr Ivanyshyn (left),

"President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump on July 4, congratulating him on U.S. Independence Day and discussing the battlefield situation, diplomacy, and efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
… 
The two leaders also discussed the current situation on the front line and ongoing diplomatic "There is a real opportunity to end this war, and America's determination will be decisive," Zelensky said." (The Kyiv Independent: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis) 

 

CRUX and CNN News : 5 July 2026 : YouTube 

With the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara to-morrow and Wednesday (7 and 8 July 2026), and Trump and Zelensky slated to meet, Putin believes that his 'continuous and fanatical' bombing of Ukraine's civilians will give him 'bargaining chips' at any meeting between himself and Zelensky that Trump will try to negotiate with Putin.

This 'maniacal' bombing of Ukraine's cities by Putin simply underscores his tenuous hold onto power.

As the Russian people finally wake up to the fact that their current economic and social problems are solely due to his war with Ukraine, Putin has opened himself even more to stepping into a Black Swan event.

If before his finger simply wavered above the 'nuclear button', it now has a 'deliberation' that even his 'siloviki' are realising. 

UPDATE : 8 July 2026 : GMT 08.27 

Putin is spitting nails!

As Laura Gozzi (right) and Sarah Rainsford (left) report, 

"US President Donald Trump has offered to give Ukraine the right to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, which could help Kyiv defend against Russia's ballistic missile attacks.

"We are gonna give you a licence to make Patriots," Trump told Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky during Wednesday's Nato summit in Ankara. "I think they can produce them very quickly once we explain it." (BBC News : 8 July 2026) (my emphasis)

 

AP Associated Press : 8 July 2026 : YouTube 

Trump announced the move during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the current 2026 NATO summit in Ankara.

We can now expect Putin to throw a childish temper tantrum, ordering his diminishing 'siloviki' supporters of his 'maniacal' bombardment of Ukraine cities to absolutely increase his 'missile' death of Ukrainian civilians.

 

  

 (to be continued)

Putin's current state of paranoia could head him towards a Black Swan event.

The last week has seen a dramatic series of events, spearheaded by Ukraine's drone attack on an oil refinery that supplies Moscow with fuel i.e. petrol and diesel.

As reported by Reuters,

"Moscow's oil refinery will be offline for at least six months after suffering extensive damage in Ukrainian drone attacks, two industry sources said on Wednesday, ​complicating Russian efforts to tackle fuel shortages across the world's ​largest country. " (Reuters : 24 June 2026) (my emphasis)

 

 Reuters : 19 June 2026 : YouTube 

With the fuel shortages now being experienced practically throughout Russia,  

Konstantin Samoilov (left) analyses the critical economic effects that this fuel shortage is having on the Russian economy, and comes to the conclusion that,

"Russia has entered a period of very fast economic changes.
… 
Russia's economy is falling apart, live, right now in front of our eyes. 
Economic reports now resemble reports from the war [with Ukraine]." (Inside Russia: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

 

Russia Has Entered Survival Mode: Inside Russia: 25 June 2026: YouTube

Many experts are now reporting that Ukraine is fiercely, and successfully, overwhelming Russian forces in Ukraine and, more significantly, reclaiming Ukrainian lands stolen by the Russian invaders.

Even Trump is now realising that his bosom buddy, Putin, is losing in his war against Ukraine.

As reported by Morning Joe on MS NOW,

"Meanwhile President Trump's tone on the war continues to shift. 

At the White House yesterday, President Trump praised Zelensky as courageous stating, "Ukraine is doing pretty well and holding its own despite heavy losses on both sides ..." (MS NOW: 25 June 2026: YouTube)

 

 MS NOW: 25 June 2026: YouTube

With nowhere to run to as the Russian economy implodes and Ukraine's Crimea, stolen, occupied by Russian soldiers, illegally annexed to Russia in 2014, now on the verge of being re-gained by Ukraine, Putin is panicking.

Russian soldiers and civilians flee the peninsula via Crimean bridge. 

 

 Kanal13: 26 June 2026: YouTube 

Unfortunately for Putin, 

"You can fool all the people some of the time 
   and some of the people all the time, 
   but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

 

Anna from Ukraine (right) exposes the fact that  it is beginning to dawn on the Russian people that Putin, who invaded and started a war with Ukraine, has led to them  now having to cope with :-

(i) Chronic Fuel shortages because of the destruction of oil refineries by Ukrainian drones

(ii) Rising food prices that cannot be harvested due to a lack of fuel for farm machinery

(iii) No more internet

(iv) Ukrainian drones  constantly flying overhead and systematically destroying the Russian industrial war machine

Putin Lost 'reality' interview: Anna From Ukraine: 29 June 2026: YouTube

Putin  is now turning his sights onto Europe as a last resort to try and salvage his growing diminishing standing with the Russian people.

In an interview on PBS, Arkady Ostrovsky (left) of The Economist warns of Putin now having reached the stage of escalation of his war with Ukraine.

He argues that,

"The elite, by now, has completely embraced the idea that this is NOT Russia's war with Ukraine.
…
This is Russia's fight with the West.
… 
Russia is a nuclear power. So where does that lead us. It's always going to be at the back of everybody's mind.
… 
Escalation is a real risk." (PBS Newshour: Compass Points: 20 June 2026: YouTube)

 

 Excerpt from: PBS Newshour: Compass Points: 20 June 2026: YouTube 

This 'real' risk may also be behind the back of the mind of Lukashenko who, recently, was warned by Zelensky not to continue to support Putin's drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.

As reported by Oleksiy Sorokin (left),

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 19 accused Belarus of facilitating Russian drone attacks on Ukraine and warned that Minsk has one week to remove communications equipment allegedly helping guide strikes from Belarusian territory, or Ukraine would take action itself.
… 
"When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war,  he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia." (Kyiv Independent: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis) 

Mark Trevelyan (right) further reports that, 

Lukashenko, a close ally of ​Russian President Vladimir Putin, said in televised comments that Zelenskiy's representatives had been in Minsk recently.

"I told them bluntly: 'Guys, ​tell your president: if he thinks he can talk to us like that — and drag us into a war to boot — ⁠then he needs to understand that the nature of the war would change instantly,'" Lukashenko (left) said, adding that Belarus had no desire to fight Ukrainians.

"We received a ​reply: the president and his team understand this. So, let's reach an agreement, guys. We need to reach a substantive agreement."

There was no immediate comment from Kyiv about Lukashenko's ​remarks." (Reuters: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

But, as Zelensky says, 

 When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war,  he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia. (ibid Oleksiy Sorokin ) 

And let us not forget, Putin has stationed 'nuclear' missiles on Belarus soil.

Putin's current state of extreme paranoia, as the 'siloviki' vultures circle around him, could head him towards a Black Swan event. 

UPDATE: 27 June 2026: GMT 09.41 

There is a critical, and immediate, development inside Russia.

Konstantin Samoilov (left) has just informed us that, 

"Alexander Lunin (right) message on Instagram was viewed by over ... twelve million people in two days. 

And it was not taken down.

Twelve million people heard a soldier publicly threatening the Czar [Putin] and getting away with it. Publicly telling them that in case he's not met, Russian military will turn its weapons to the Kremlin" (The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis)   

Excerpt at end : The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026: YouTube 

Will this be the event that propels Putin even faster towards a Black Swan event?

 

 

 

(to be continued)