Ukraine Crisis and Putin

Wednesday, 15 July 2026

Putin is now at his most dangerous.

The last 8 days has filled the international political 'ether' with an avalanche of reports about Putin's horrendous missile strikes against Ukrainian civilians in Ukrainian cities, and the corresponding retaliation by Ukraine against Putin's oil infrastructure and armament manufacturing facilities throughout Russia.

As reported by CRUX,

"Ukraine launched a fresh wave of long-range drone strikes overnight on July 13th, targetting energy and industrial facilities in Russia's Stavropol and Krasnodar regions." (CRUX : 13 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,

"Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces struck 15 more vessels from Russia's shadow fleet, according to a Pravda report on July 13." (ibid CRUX)

CRUX : 13 July 2026: YouTube

And as reported by PPR Global,

"An entire sea [sea of Azov] has turned into a ghost. Nothing coming in [and] nothing going out
…
Russia halts Don-Azov channel shipping. Closes Kerch Strait after Ukrainian tanker strikes.
...
Ukraine has no great navy, yet in the [Sea of] Azov Ukraine now effectively decides who passes and who does not". (PPR Global: 14 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)

Excerpt from : PPR Global: 14 July 2026 : YouTube

PPR Global further reports that,

"When Russia closed the [Don-Azov channel] it not only closed a canal, it did not only halt its military supplies, it severed an artery of its economy". (ibid PPR Global)

It is the critical disruption of Putin's oil economy by Ukraine's drones that is now negatively impacting his standing amongst the people of Russia.

In his analysis of the origin of this change from positivity to negativity towards Putin, Konstantin Samoilov (left) argues,

"That construct, the Czar's alibi, is what held Putin's numbers [of approval] up, long after the money and the pride [in invading and annexing Crimea in 2014] were gone.

It was his last armour." (Inside Russia: 14 July 2026 : YouTube) (cf. Video below)

He Betrayed Us”: How Fuel Lines Are Breaking Putin’s Alibi

Excerpt from :- Inside Russia: 14 July 2026 : YouTube

Adding to Putin's unravelling, CBS reported that,

"The Trump administration is ready to support heavy tariffs on Russian oil in a bid to end the war in Ukraine.

Questioner : What kind of new sanctions would this impose on Russia.

Torian Small (right) : I think that the top line that people would undoubtedly take from this is that 500% tariff that would apply to any country dealing business, especially as it relates to oil, with Russia ..." (CBS : 11 July 2026 : YouTube) (my emphasis)

CBS : 11 July 2026 : YouTube

The missiles that Putin rains down upon Ukraine's civilians have begun to meet their match.

As reported by the Kyiv Post,

"Ukraine successfully intercepted Russian ballistic missiles during a massive overnight attack, downing five as Moscow launched 145 aerial weapons against cities and critical infrastructure across the country.
…
Last week, Zelensky (left) said Russia’s only remaining military advantage is its ability to launch ballistic missile attacks against Ukrainian civilians, arguing that Ukraine has become stronger both on the battlefield and in the air." (Kyiv Post : 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

And following on from Trump giving Zelensky the "green light" to make the US Patriot missile (Laura Gozzi and Sarah Rainsford BBC News : 8 July 2026) for effectively shooting down Russian missiles, Lucy Pakhnyuk (right) now reports that,

"French President Emmanuel Macron (left: with Zelensky) said July 13 that France would allow Ukraine to produce French-designed cruise missiles, glide bombs, and air defense interceptors, marking the first time France has licensed the production of its weapons in Ukraine." (Kyiv Independent : 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Evelyn Ann-Marie Dom,

"Nine European countries and Ukraine announced the creation of a coalition to develop anti-ballistic capabilities in Europe to protect the continent." (Euronews on MSN; 14 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Aware that Putin, in these last few days, has been unravelling,

"China has again told Russia not to even consider using a nuclear weapon against Ukraine, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. " (Japan Times : 11 July 2026) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (6 July 2026),

"We can now expect Putin to throw a childish temper tantrum, ordering his diminishing military and 'siloviki' supporters of his 'maniacal' bombardment of Ukraine cities to absolutely increase his 'missile' death of Ukrainian civilians." (blog entry : 6 July 2026)

With

the Sea of Azov now practically controlled by Ukraine,
Russian people having to queue for hours to obtain meagre petrol supplies for their cars,
the looming collapse of the wheat harvests because of the fuel shortages, thanks to Ukrainian drones,
and the Russian people beginning to blame Putin for their living hardships;

Putin is totally bereft of ANY alibi's that now can come to his rescue.

Putin is now at his most dangerous.

(to be continued)

Monday, 6 July 2026

Putin's finger is now deliberately poised above his 'nuclear' button.

Kyiv • UNN reports that,

"{Putin's] yacht worth £100 million is heading to Murmansk over fears of Ukrainian drone strikes. It is being escorted by two Russian military ships.
…
According to naval expert Emma Salisbury, the scale of the escort indicates serious concerns in the Kremlin.

"This looks like an excessive level of protection. Putin does not want to risk the yacht being detained by NATO ships or sunk by the Ukrainians," she noted.

The publication also writes that in recent months, Putin has significantly strengthened personal security measures. (Kyiv • UNN on MSN: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Earlier, as Mark Krutov and RFE/RL's Russian Service report,

"RFE/RL's Russian Service has found that a concrete platform has been erected and Russia's S-400 air-defense systems have been deployed on the grounds of the headquarters of the Innopraktika Foundation, a $1.7 billion government-backed project headed by Putin's youngest daughter, Katerina Tikhonova. (right)" (RadioFreeEurope : 27 June 2026) (my emphasis)

There are also reports beginning to appear that Putin's time as the Czar of Russia may soon be coming to an end.

As I wrote in my previous blog,

"Konstantin Samoilov (left) has just informed us that,

"Alexander Lunin (right) message on Instagram was viewed by over ... twelve million people in two days.

And it was not taken down.

Twelve million people heard a soldier publicly threatening the Czar [Putin] and getting away with it. Publicly telling them that in case he's not met, Russian military will turn its weapons to the Kremlin" (The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Excerpt at end : The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026: YouTube

Will this be the event that propels Putin even faster towards a Black Swan event?" (blog entry : 26 June 2026)

And during the last week, like a demented 'maniac', Putin has thrown more and more bombs at Ukrainian cities, from drones to missiles, causing Ukrainian civilian deaths.

As reported by Sky News,

"Kiev's night of horror in Ukraine show that Putin is now behind the battlefield.

Russia has launched its largest attack on the Ukrainian capital [Kyiv] this year" (Sky News: 3 July 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

Sky News: 3 July 2026: YouTube

Ukraine continues to focus on the destruction of Putin's oil refineries and military targets, specifically to destroy Putin's capability to manufacture the drones and missiles of death that he is aiming at Ukrainian civilians in Ukrainian cities.

As a result of Ukraine's answer to Putin's bombing 'mania', fuel shortages are now being experienced practically throughout Russia,

Konstantin Samoilov analyses the critical economic effects that this fuel shortage is having on the Russian economy, and comes to the conclusion that,

"Russia has entered a period of very fast economic changes.
…
Russia's economy is falling apart, live, right now in front of our eyes.
Economic reports now resemble reports from the war [with Ukraine]." (Inside Russia: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Is it any wonder that Putin is now reaching the stage of having to set up an exit route from Russia, ensuring the protection of his family and readying his yacht in Murmansk?

To continue to feed his failing "meat-grinder" military strategy, Putin is now forced to try to recruit students to make up for his mounting losses in Ukraine.

As Olga Ivshina (first left), Anastasia Platonova (second left) & Sophia Volyanova, report,

"The campaign to encourage students at universities, technical colleges and vocational schools to sign army contracts began early this year, as Russia sought to sustain its war effort into a fifth year. It has focused particularly on those struggling academically or considering taking a break from their studies." (BBC News: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis)

This strategy of Putin to try to recruit students signifies his growing fear of losing his power, and possibly his life.

Furthermore, as Antonia Langford (right) reports,

"Vladimir Putin is said to be planning a new wave of mobilisation as the flow of soldiers to Ukraine dries up.
…
Eight sources inside the presidential administration and military enlistment apparatus told Verstka and Vazhnyye Istorii, both independent Russian outlets, that the idea of mobilisation was on the table for the first time since the disastrous call-up in 2022.
…
Troop shortages have led to viral videos from the city of Penza showing balaclava-clad draft officers seizing people off the streets and hauling them to enlistment offices." (The Telegraph on Yahoo News: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

And Trump, having 'somewhat' washed his hands from his war with Iran off, giving this 'thorny' diplomatic problem to his vice-president Vance to find a solution to his war with Iran, we now learn from CNA that,

"United States President Donald Trump, speaking to Russian leader Vladimir Putin by telephone for nearly 90 minutes, offered to help find a solution to the Ukraine war, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said in comments made public early on Sunday (Jul 5)." (CNA: 6 July 2026) (my emphasis)

Yuri Ushakov (right) went on to report that,

"Ushakov, who described the conversation as "business-like and quite constructive", said Russia sought "a political-diplomatic resolution of the conflict, with due account of Russia's fundamental approach". (ibid CNA)

In other words, only Zelensky's complete surrender to Putin's initial "Novorossiya" fantasy demands will end his war with Ukraine.

Then we also have the call from Zelensky to Trump on Independence Day.

As reported by Sonya Bandouil and Volodymyr Ivanyshyn (left),

"President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke by phone with U.S. President Donald Trump on July 4, congratulating him on U.S. Independence Day and discussing the battlefield situation, diplomacy, and efforts to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
…
The two leaders also discussed the current situation on the front line and ongoing diplomatic "There is a real opportunity to end this war, and America's determination will be decisive," Zelensky said." (The Kyiv Independent: 4 July 2026) (my emphasis)

CRUX and CNN News : 5 July 2026 : YouTube

With the upcoming NATO summit in Ankara to-morrow and Wednesday (7 and 8 July 2026), and Trump and Zelensky slated to meet, Putin believes that his 'continuous and fanatical' bombing of Ukraine's civilians will give him 'bargaining chips' at any meeting between himself and Zelensky that Trump will try to negotiate with Putin.

This 'maniacal' bombing of Ukraine's cities by Putin simply underscores his tenuous hold onto power.

As the Russian people finally wake up to the fact that their current economic and social problems are solely due to his war with Ukraine, Putin has opened himself even more to stepping into a Black Swan event.

If before his finger simply wavered above the 'nuclear button', it now has a 'deliberation' that even his 'siloviki' are realising.

UPDATE : 8 July 2026 : GMT 08.27

Putin is spitting nails!

As Laura Gozzi (right) and Sarah Rainsford (left) report,

"US President Donald Trump has offered to give Ukraine the right to produce Patriot interceptor missiles, which could help Kyiv defend against Russia's ballistic missile attacks.

"We are gonna give you a licence to make Patriots," Trump told Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky during Wednesday's Nato summit in Ankara. "I think they can produce them very quickly once we explain it." (BBC News : 8 July 2026) (my emphasis)

AP Associated Press : 8 July 2026 : YouTube

Trump announced the move during a meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on the sidelines of the current 2026 NATO summit in Ankara.

We can now expect Putin to throw a childish temper tantrum, ordering his diminishing 'siloviki' supporters of his 'maniacal' bombardment of Ukraine cities to absolutely increase his 'missile' death of Ukrainian civilians.

(to be continued)

Friday, 26 June 2026

Putin's current state of paranoia could head him towards a Black Swan event.

The last week has seen a dramatic series of events, spearheaded by Ukraine's drone attack on an oil refinery that supplies Moscow with fuel i.e. petrol and diesel.

As reported by Reuters,

"Moscow's oil refinery will be offline for at least six months after suffering extensive damage in Ukrainian drone attacks, two industry sources said on Wednesday, complicating Russian efforts to tackle fuel shortages across the world's largest country. " (Reuters : 24 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Reuters : 19 June 2026 : YouTube

With the fuel shortages now being experienced practically throughout Russia,

Konstantin Samoilov (left) analyses the critical economic effects that this fuel shortage is having on the Russian economy, and comes to the conclusion that,

Russia Has Entered Survival Mode: Inside Russia: 25 June 2026: YouTube

Many experts are now reporting that Ukraine is fiercely, and successfully, overwhelming Russian forces in Ukraine and, more significantly, reclaiming Ukrainian lands stolen by the Russian invaders.

Even Trump is now realising that his bosom buddy, Putin, is losing in his war against Ukraine.

As reported by Morning Joe on MS NOW,

"Meanwhile President Trump's tone on the war continues to shift.

At the White House yesterday, President Trump praised Zelensky as courageous stating, "Ukraine is doing pretty well and holding its own despite heavy losses on both sides ..." (MS NOW: 25 June 2026: YouTube)

MS NOW: 25 June 2026: YouTube

With nowhere to run to as the Russian economy implodes and Ukraine's Crimea, stolen, occupied by Russian soldiers, illegally annexed to Russia in 2014, now on the verge of being re-gained by Ukraine, Putin is panicking.

Russian soldiers and civilians flee the peninsula via Crimean bridge.

Kanal13: 26 June 2026: YouTube

Unfortunately for Putin,

"You can fool all the people some of the time
and some of the people all the time,
but you cannot fool all the people all the time."

Anna from Ukraine (right) exposes the fact that it is beginning to dawn on the Russian people that Putin, who invaded and started a war with Ukraine, has led to them now having to cope with :-

(i) Chronic Fuel shortages because of the destruction of oil refineries by Ukrainian drones

(ii) Rising food prices that cannot be harvested due to a lack of fuel for farm machinery

(iii) No more internet

(iv) Ukrainian drones constantly flying overhead and systematically destroying the Russian industrial war machine

Putin is now turning his sights onto Europe as a last resort to try and salvage his growing diminishing standing with the Russian people.

In an interview on PBS, Arkady Ostrovsky (left) of The Economist warns of Putin now having reached the stage of escalation of his war with Ukraine.

He argues that,

"The elite, by now, has completely embraced the idea that this is NOT Russia's war with Ukraine.
…
This is Russia's fight with the West.
…
Russia is a nuclear power. So where does that lead us. It's always going to be at the back of everybody's mind.
…
Escalation is a real risk." (PBS Newshour: Compass Points: 20 June 2026: YouTube)

Excerpt from: PBS Newshour: Compass Points: 20 June 2026: YouTube

This 'real' risk may also be behind the back of the mind of Lukashenko who, recently, was warned by Zelensky not to continue to support Putin's drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.

As reported by Oleksiy Sorokin (left),

"President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 19 accused Belarus of facilitating Russian drone attacks on Ukraine and warned that Minsk has one week to remove communications equipment allegedly helping guide strikes from Belarusian territory, or Ukraine would take action itself.
…
"When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia." (Kyiv Independent: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Mark Trevelyan (right) further reports that,

Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said in televised comments that Zelenskiy's representatives had been in Minsk recently.

"I told them bluntly: 'Guys, tell your president: if he thinks he can talk to us like that — and drag us into a war to boot — ⁠then he needs to understand that the nature of the war would change instantly,'" Lukashenko (left) said, adding that Belarus had no desire to fight Ukrainians.

"We received a reply: the president and his team understand this. So, let's reach an agreement, guys. We need to reach a substantive agreement."

There was no immediate comment from Kyiv about Lukashenko's remarks." (Reuters: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)

But, as Zelensky says,

When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia. (ibid Oleksiy Sorokin )

And let us not forget, Putin has stationed 'nuclear' missiles on Belarus soil.

Putin's current state of extreme paranoia, as the 'siloviki' vultures circle around him, could head him towards a Black Swan event.

UPDATE: 27 June 2026: GMT 09.41

There is a critical, and immediate, development inside Russia.

Konstantin Samoilov (left) has just informed us that,

"Alexander Lunin (right) message on Instagram was viewed by over ... twelve million people in two days.

And it was not taken down.

Excerpt at end : The Mutiny Warning Putin Couldn’t Censor: Inside Russia: 26 June 2026: YouTube

Will this be the event that propels Putin even faster towards a Black Swan event?

(to be continued)

Wednesday, 17 June 2026

Putin is now desperately fighting for his survival and, possibly, for his own life.

Reuters reports that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy (left) said on Monday ‌that he had offered to meet Vladimir Putin at a G7 summit in France this week or even in the United States for talks to end a four-year war.
…
"We gave message that we are ready to meet with Putin during (the) G7, ⁠because Trump is there and Macron is there, so Europeans plus America. This is a good, I think, very good opportunity to meet all together," Zelenskiy told reporters in English. (Reuters: 15 June 2026) (my emphasis)

Let us also recall that,

"In an open letter ⁠to Putin this month, Zelenskiy offered to meet for face-to-face talks and had suggested that the war was increasing the strain on Russia's economy. In response, Putin said publicly that he saw no reason for a meeting, and Ukraine's long-range drone attacks posed no ⁠economic threat. (ibid Reuters)

Putin's "no reason" for a meeting comes against the backdrop of Konstantin Samoilov (right) reporting that,

"This is the moment for the Russian economy many have been waiting for. It has entered the stage of "free-fall". In the previous four years, Russian economy survived only due to mass reserves accumulated in the past.

The reserves are depleted now. Russian 'war economy' has been proved to be unsustainable now. The changes are happening fast!" (Inside Russia: 15 June 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)

Inside Russia: 15 June 2026: YouTube

In the video above, Samoilov goes on to explain the critical state of food shortages in Ukraine's currently occupied Crimea, food shortages that are beginning to spread inside Russia.

Furthermore, as Steve Balestrieri (left) reports,

"Even Putin’s Biggest Hawks Believe Russia Can’t Win In Ukraine: Russian President Vladimir Putin is facing increasing pressure both at the front and within the country.

The Russian army’s offensive has been stopped, resources are being depleted, and Ukrainian drone strikes are hitting the logistics and economy of the Russian Federation increasingly hard." (National Security Journal: 12 June 2026) (my emphasis)

CNN 17 June 2026: YouTube

As an indicator that members of Putin's 'siloviki' are realising 'the abyss of total economic bankruptcy' into which Putin's war in Ukraine has thrown Russia, some are now planning their escape routes from Russia.

As earlier reported in the Moscow Times,

"Denis Butsayev (left), a high-ranking Russian official who was recently dismissed from the Natural Resources and Environment Ministry, has reportedly fled to the United States to escape criminal prosecution, independent journalist Farida Rustamova reported Thursday.

Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin formally dismissed Butsayev as deputy minister on April 22, government documents show" (Moscow Times: 1 May 2026) (my emphasis)

Konstantin Samoilov gives a more recent and detailed explanation of the circumstances surrounding Butsayev's defection, together with some of Putin's Z-blogger and other enthusiasts for his war against Ukraine.

As he explains,

"First know official of his highest rank to flee the country.
…
He gets out before he's handcuffed " (Inside Russia : The System Turns: Why Putin’s Loyalists Are Fleeing Russia: 17 June 2026: YouTube) (my emphasis)