As reported by Reuters,
"Moscow's oil refinery will be offline for at least six months after suffering extensive damage in Ukrainian drone attacks, two industry sources said on Wednesday, complicating Russian efforts to tackle fuel shortages across the world's largest country. " (Reuters : 24 June 2026) (my emphasis)
Reuters : 19 June 2026 : YouTube
With the fuel shortages now being experienced practically throughout Russia,
Konstantin Samoilov (left) analyses the critical economic effects that this fuel shortage is having on the Russian economy, and comes to the conclusion that,
"Russia has entered a period of very fast economic changes.
…
Russia's economy is falling apart, live, right now in front of our eyes.
Economic reports now resemble reports from the war [with Ukraine]." (Inside Russia: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)
Many experts are now reporting that Ukraine is fiercely, and successfully, overwhelming Russian forces in Ukraine and, more significantly, reclaiming Ukrainian lands stolen by the Russian invaders.
Even Trump is now realising that his bosom buddy, Putin, is losing in his war against Ukraine.
As reported by Morning Joe on MS NOW,
"Meanwhile President Trump's tone on the war continues to shift.
At the White House yesterday, President Trump praised Zelensky as courageous stating, "Ukraine is doing pretty well and holding its own despite heavy losses on both sides ..." (MS NOW: 25 June 2026: YouTube)
With nowhere to run to as the Russian economy implodes and Ukraine's Crimea, stolen, occupied by Russian soldiers, illegally annexed to Russia in 2014, now on the verge of being re-gained by Ukraine, Putin is panicking.
Unfortunately for Putin,
and some of the people all the time,
but you cannot fool all the people all the time."
As it begins to dawn on the Russian people that Putin, who invaded and started a war with Ukraine, and that has led to them now having to cope with :-
(i) Chronic Fuel shortages because of the destruction of oil refineries by Ukrainian drones
(ii) Rising food prices that cannot be harvested due to a lack of fuel for farm machinery
(iii) No more internet
(iv) Ukrainian drones constantly flying overhead and bombing the industrial war machine,
Putin is now turning his sights onto Europe as a last resort to try and salvage his growing diminishing standing with the Russian people.
In an interview on PBS, Arkady Ostrovsky of The Economist warns of Putin now having reached the stage of escalation of his war with Ukraine.
He argues that,
"The elite, by now, has completely embraced the idea that this is NOT Russia's war with Ukraine.
…
This is Russia's fight with the West.
…
Russia is a nuclear power. So where does that lead us. It's always going to be at the back of everybody's mind.
…
Escalation is a real risk." (PBS Newshour: Compass Points: 20 June 2026: YouTube)
This 'real' risk may also be behind the back of the mind of Lukashenko who, recently, was warned by Zelensky not to continue to support Putin's drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.
As reported by Oleksiy Sorokin (left),
"President Volodymyr Zelensky on June 19 accused Belarus of facilitating Russian drone attacks on Ukraine and warned that Minsk has one week to remove communications equipment allegedly helping guide strikes from Belarusian territory, or Ukraine would take action itself.
…
"When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia." (Kyiv Independent: 26 June 2026) (my emphasis)
Lukashenko, a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin, said in televised comments that Zelenskiy's representatives had been in Minsk recently.
"I told them bluntly: 'Guys, tell your president: if he thinks he can talk to us like that — and drag us into a war to boot — then he needs to understand that the nature of the war would change instantly,'" Lukashenko (left) said, adding that Belarus had no desire to fight Ukrainians."We received a reply: the president and his team understand this. So, let's reach an agreement, guys. We need to reach a substantive agreement."
There was no immediate comment from Kyiv about Lukashenko's remarks." (Reuters: 25 June 2026) (my emphasis)
But, as Zelensky says,
When Lukashenko says he does not want to be involved in the war, he should be honest, at least with his own people," Zelensky said. "It is not only he who could be drawn into the war — his entire country could be dragged into it by Russia. (ibid Oleksiy Sorokin )
And let us not forget, Putin has stationed 'nuclear' missiles on Belarus soil.
Putin's current state of extreme paranoia, as the 'siloviki' vultures circle around him, could head him towards a Black Swan event.
































