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Monday 2 May 2022

Putin's actions are hammering in the final nails of the coffin of the USSR.

Putin's constant threat to use 'nuclear force' against Ukraine, or any country in the West, that continues to supply Ukraine with weaponry of defence and offense, has somewhat backfired.

As US President Biden explains,

"They [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] do concern me because it shows the desperation that Russia is feeling about their abject failure to be able to do what they set out to do in the first instance" (CNN : YouTube : 28 April 2022) (my emphasis)

The analysis of Evelyn Farkas during the CNN interview rather succinctly points out that,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).



Just recently, as reported by Richard Luscombe,

"Joe Biden’s $33bn request to Congress for more aid for Ukraine is likely to receive swift approval from lawmakers, a senior Republican said on Sunday, as the House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, made a surprise visit to the war-riven country
...
McCaul’s comments came while Pelosi led a congressional delegation to Kyiv to meet the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy, and the House speaker promised on behalf of the US: “We are here until victory is won.” (The Guardian : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

And at the same time, as reported by Emily Atkinson (right),

"In seeking “payback” for Moscow’s losses, top army officials are reportedly imploring the Russian leader to replace his “special military operation” tagline with a cry of all-out war, which would permit the Kremlin to drum up the mass-mobilisation of its population.." (MSN : The Independent : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Emily Atkinson continues,

"[UK] Defence secretary Ben Wallace (left) lent his voice to warnings that the annual parade could be used to declare war. .... His comments arrived in the wake of the announcement that Britain is sending around 8,000 of its troops to take part in exercises across eastern Europe.
...
The thousands of British troops will be joined by tens of thousands of troops from Nato and the Joint Expeditionary Force alliance, which includes Finland and Sweden." (ibid Emily Atkinson) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that, as reported by IANS,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin may be forced to give up control of the war in Ukraine for days as he is set for cancer surgery, and will reportedly nominate hardline former FSB chief Nikolai Patrushev (right) to take temporary control of the invasion while he is under the knife, a Kremlin insider has claimed.
...
Such a move would be surprising since under the Russian constitution, power should pass solely to the Prime Minister [currently Mikhail Mishustin (left)], the Daily Mail reported." (Business Standard : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis) (cf. also :- Mail Online, The Mirror)

          Hindustan News : YouTube : 1 May 2022

We are now left with at least two rather critical questions :-

  • Is this temporary transfer of power, whilst Putin is being operated on, to the FSB Chief, Nikolai Patrushev, to ensure that his current war strategy of razing Ukraine to the ground continues should he emerge even more incapacitated after his surgery? OR
  • Is this bypassing of Mikhail Mishustin, the next in command, indicative of the serious cracks that are appearing in Russia's power structure

As reported by Brad Hunter,

" Experts say that many close allies of the Russian strongman have either died, been jailed, or simply disappeared.
...
Putin’s woes have mounted with every military setback and skyrocketing casualties (estimated to be 21,000 dead) from the battlefront.
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Now, Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov (left) is warning that Putin faces the very real prospect of being overthrown as he appears to be severing ties with former allies." (Toronto Sun : 20 April 2022) (my emphasis)

Mindful of the fact that Putin seems to have something of a disdain for Russia's economic pundits, who are screaming from the rooftops that sanctions has caused the Russian economy into dangerous uncertainty territory.

Recently, as reported by Reuters,

"Russian Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina will have to deal with a full-scale economic crisis, tackling unprecedented uncertainty stemming from Western sanctions, as she begins her new five-year stint in charge of monetary policy.
...
"Nabiullina is facing another challenging term, no doubt," said Tatiana Orlova, lead emerging market economist at Oxford Economics.
...
There are several challenges the central bank will have to deal with, including when and how to lift capital controls, as well as the possible need to recapitalise some Russian banks.
...
"So in short, the CBR Governor has her work cut out for her. I wouldn't want to be in her shoes right now," Orlova said." (Reuters : 21 April 2022) (my emphasis)


Putin's respose to the challenges facing Russia's Central Bank?

Trying to force payments in roubles for oil and gas, even though the contracts already agreed with many countries specifically specifies payments in either dollars or euros.

As reported by Arathy Somasekhar and Nina Chestney,

"In March, Russian President Vladimir Putin said the world's largest natural gas producer would require "unfriendly" countries to pay for fuel in roubles by opening accounts at Gazprombank and make payments in euros or dollars to be converted into roubles." (Reuters : 26 April 2022) (my emphasis

Hungary and Germany's main importer of gas, Uniper, now argue that they can use the Putin method for paying in roubles without breaking EU sanctions against Russia.

However, as reported by Paul Withers (left),

"An embargo on Russian oil throughout the bloc is becoming increasingly likely, and now the likes of Austria, Hungary and Slovakia have withdrawn their veto, according to German broadcaster ZDF. It comes ahead of the EU hitting Russia with a sixth round of crippling economic sanctions." (Express : 1 May 2022) (my emphasis)

So what Putin may have marginally gained on the swing of rouble payments he has lost on the roundabout of a possible EU oil embargo.

With a losing war against Ukraine, and an economy entering the economic doldrums of collapse Putin, it would seem, is hammering in the final nails of the coffin of  what used to be the USSR.

(to be continued)

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