Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine

In my blog entry of 17 October, I quoted Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (left) stating that,

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016)

And so it is that the Normandy Four meeting, with the participation of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, and which took place in Berlin on the night of 19-20 October, seems to indicate that for Putin, at least, his war with Ukraine in the Donbas has somewhat exhausted itself.

It no longer serves the initially prime purpose of propping up himself and his 'siloviki'.  It has now become counter-productive. 

As reported by UNIAN,

"We often repeat like a mantra these days that the notorious sanctions are having little impact. But they do have an impact. We feel this above all in restrictions on technology transfers," he said at the eighth Russia Calling! Investment Forum organized by VTB Capital on Wednesday, October 12." (UNIAN :12 October 2016) (my emphasis)

Some of the long-term effects of the current impact of sanctions on Putin's Russian economy is best described by Russia's Economic Ministry projecting by just how much the Russian economy will stagnate over the next twenty years.

"Coming out of the recession in 2017, the economy in the next 20 years will grow very slowly - an average of 2% per year (from 1.7 to a maximum of 2.6%). It is about 1.5 times below the world average rates: thus Russia will all be shifted closer to the poorest countries. Increase GDP in 20 years will only be 1.5 times. Real incomes will rise by an average of 1.4% per year and will be released at the level of 2013 only in 2021, in 2035 it exceeded by less than 30%. For comparison, the same amount they have grown in 2006-2007." (Vedomosti :20.10.2016) (Google Translated from Russian) (my emphasis)

Yet, emerging from the Berlin Normandy Four meeting on the night of 19-20 October we have a 'roadmap'.

This 'roadmap', aimed at reviving the stalled peace process in eastern Ukraine must, according to Poroshenko,

".....  foresees consistency and guarantees. Implementing the security conditions, a ceasefire, withdrawing foreign troops, respect for the removal of military equipment, providing easy access for the OSCE, releasing hostages should go before the implementation of the political part." (Olena Makarenko (right) : Euromaidan Press : 20/10/2016) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the rub, rather succinctly expressed by Vitaliy Portnikov (left),

"And here the dialog stops because Hollande and Merkel clearly understand that without disarming criminals and a withdrawal of Russian troops, no elections are possible. But Putin understands just as clearly that after the disarmament of the criminals and withdrawal the Russian troops he does not need any elections. He will simply lose Donbas as a leverage of influence on Ukraine,” (ibid Olena Makarenko) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"It is necessary to boost the efficiency of the OSCE monitoring mission and an armed police mission is needed there. Before the elections, we must have control over the border on the part of a permanent OSCE armed mission," [Poroshenko] said in an interview with the Ukraina television channel commenting on the results of the latest Normandy Four summit in Berlin." (Tass :  October 23, 2016) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies continue to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions.

As reported by UT,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 35 times in the past day - 20 in the Mariupol sector, nine barrages in the Luhansk sector, and six in the Donetsk sector – including four artillery attacks." (UT : Oct. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin has nowhere else to go except to continue with his military action against Ukraine.

Furthermore, Putin has to,

"... stick to his “classical line” – Ukraine must implement the political package first, including changes to the Constitution, the law on amnesty, and “direct negotiations” with the Russian mercenaries." (Vitaliy Portnikov (ibid Olena Makarenko)) (my emphasis)

Like the narcissistic Donald Trump on the verge of losing the US presidential race to Hillary Clinton, Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine, no matter what the cost to the Russian people.

(to be continued)

Putin has nothing to offer Poroshenko except “militaristic rhetoric"

Three days ago (14/10/2016) Putin's Russian press in both Russia and the occupied territory of the Donbass reported that,

"The Ukrainian combat helicopter shot down by the DPR forces landed in the area of Krasnogorovka occupied by the AFU. It was stated by Eduard Basurin, the DPR Operative Command Deputy Commander. " (Dninews: Saturday, October 15, 2016)

Similarly, TASS reported that,

"The militia command of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has received information that the helicopter downed by the militia on Thursday, was carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states, the DPR Operations Command Spokesman Eduard Basurin told journalists on Friday." (TASS : October 14,2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as Putin's proxy soldiers in the Donbass are reporting that,

"The DPR Operative Command specified that the area of the combat helicopter’s fall was cordoned off at that moment. Moreover, mobile communication did not work there." (ibid Dninews) (my emphasis),

the Ukrainian Defense Ministry,

".....  has denied the shoot down of one of its helicopters in Donbass, says it does not use helicopters for military ops" (Liveuamap : 14 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

At the same time the OSCE, in its information received as of 19:30, 14 October 2016

from its Special Monitoring Mission in the Donbass, did not include the shooting down of a helicopter by Putin's rebel proxy forces.

Given that Putin's rebel proxies in the Donbass stated that this helicopter was "carrying some instructors from NATO’s member states", the absolute deart of an international outcry about this helicopter downing contrasts with the international outcry in the case of the shooting down of the airliner MH17 (right) by Putin's forces in the Donbass on 17 July 2014 that killed all 283 passengers and 15 crew on board, and questions the veracity of Putin's propaganda machine about this alleged "helicopter shooting down".

What we do know is that,

"The Mariupol sector has ... suffered 18 attacks for the past 24 hours. The cities of Maryinka, Shyrokyne and Krasnogorivka were hotspots for militant shelling. Mortars, armored fighting vehicles, grenade launchers and machine guns were used in that direction.

In the Donetsk sector, Ukrainian Armed Forces have been fired 6 times. Grenade launchers and small arms shelling into Ukrainian soldiers in Troitske and Avdiivka were noted." (UT : Oct. 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

What we also know is that Putin continues to pour his Russian soldiers and armaments into the Donbass.

And according to Pavel Felgenhauer (left), a Russian military analyst,

"Putin Likely to Expand Russian Invasion of Ukraine in January [2017].

... an attack on Odessa more likely [as opposed to an attack on Mariupol] especially since “many in Russia consider [Odessa] a Russian city” and because its “’liberation’” would trigger a patriotic explosion much like the annexation of Crimea." (Joel Harding (right): To Inform Is To Influence : October 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

This would tie-in with the militaristic hysteria that Putin is foisting upon the Russian people as Russia continues to aimlessly meander in the quagmire of an economic depression.

However, according to Sergey Shelin (left),

"The militaristic hysteria the Kremlin has unleashed in order to frighten the West and win support at home “does not have real causes and looks like an improvisation by the leader and his advisors” tragically is “getting out of control” and could by itself lead to disaster ... " (Paul Goble : Window on Eurasia : Sunday, October 16, 2016) (my emphasis)

Shelin further argues that,

"As far as Ukraine is concerned. No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t however much Moscow blusters." (ibid Paul Goble)

Which raises the important question viz.

"What will the invitation of Angela Merkel to Putin, Hollande, and Poroshenko to dinner in Berlin on October 19 really achieve when Poroshenko has not agreed to participate in a 'Normandy Four' summit until a roadmap envisaging compliance with the Minsk security provisions is coordinated?" (UT :

Is Merkel, yet again, providing Putin with a diplomatic platform to, in the words of Sergey Shelin, "bluster" about the Minsk2 protocols? 

As reported by the Jerusalem Post,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel is in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin about the conflict in eastern Ukraine and the war in Syria, a government spokesman said on Friday." (Jerusalem Post (Reuters): 14/10/2016) (my emphasis), yet again underlining the Putinversteher German mentality

Shelin is correct when he states that, "No one ever expected the Minsk accords to be fulfilled; and they aren’t being and won’t .. " (cf also: UT : Oct. 12, 2016 :  "Red lines" of Minsk agreements for Ukraine: analysts' warning)

Yet many political analysts are now arguing that Putin's militaristic hysteria and his preparing the Russian people for war is merely a show to boost his support in Russia.

And they may be right.

According to Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (right),

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016) (my emphasis)

Valery Solovey (left) is even more forthright. According to him,

" ... “the powers that be in Russia are not very firm. They try to give the impression of a strong, self-confident and even brutal state. But this is an exaggeration, an attempt to frighten the external world and Russian society” (ibid Paul Goble : 15 Oct) (my emphasis)

Yet .....

"[t]here are some unsettling things Russia has done, however, to give the impression that war is looming. (UT : Oct. 15, 2016) (my emphasis)

Is this a prelude to attack Odessa, as  Pavel Felgenhauer predicts?

(to be continued) 

Putin's 'feverish' diplomatic flurry being aided and abetted by Merkel and Hollande

In March of 2015 Putin, for the first time, publicly admitted that,

"... the plan to annex Crimea was ordered weeks before the referendum on self-determination." (BBC News : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

We should therefore not be surprised that, as recently reported by Damien Sharkov,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his government was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, despite previously denying that Moscow plays any formal role in the conflict in the Donbas regions.
...
Putin had denied sending troops into Crimea, before annexing it in 2014, and issued similar denials regarding Donbas. However, he has issued statements seemingly admitting to armed Russian presence in both regions since." (Newsweek: 10/12/16) (my emphasis)

This public announcement by Putin comes on the heels of,

• "The Russian and Turkish leaders .. [agreeing] to intensify military and intelligence contacts after a meeting in Istanbul" (BBC News: 10 October 2016) (my emphasis), as well as,
•  Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, met on Monday for the second time since August to finalize a deal for an undersea gas pipeline and demonstrate renewed bilateral ties ..... The pipeline would be hugely beneficial to Russia, allowing Moscow to bypass Ukraine entirely and giving it a direct opening into the European market. (Natasha Bertrand : Business Indsider : Oct. 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

It also come on the heels of,


"Russian President Vladimir Putin [cancelling] a planned visit to France next week, the Kremlin said Tuesday, in an apparent snub to French President François Hollande, who suggested Moscow was guilty of war crimes in Syria." (Angela Dewan (left): CNN : October 11, 2016) (my emphasis)

And then, in a telephone conversation between Putin, Merkel, and Hollande (Oct 12, 2016),

"Despite growing diplomatic tensions over Syria, the leaders of Russia, France and Germany may meet "very soon" in Berlin to revive peace efforts for Ukraine.
....
The statement said they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections. Prospects of a quick solution to Ukraine's conflict between the government and Russia-backed separatist rebels seem remote, however." (ABC News (Associated Press) : Oct 12, 2016) (my emphasis)

This "opportunistic diplomatic flurry" of Putin has been spurred on as the eyes of President Obama are averted towards what is turning into the 'strangest' of American presidential elections, and also with the possible election of Hilary Clinton into the Oval Office within the next 30 days.

Unlike President Obama, a Hilary Clinton presidency will not be as 'soft on Putin' as Obama has been.

In 2014 she stated that Putin's actions in Ukrainian Crimea,

".... were similar to what happened in the Nazi era in Czechoslovakia and Romania.
 
"Now if this sounds familiar, it’s what Hitler did back in the 30s,” Clinton said... “Hitler kept saying: ‘They’re not being treated right. I must go and protect my people.’ And that’s what’s gotten everybody so nervous.” (The Guardian (Associated Press) : Thursday 6 March 2014) (my emphasis)

As Putin himself recently said about sending his soldiers into the Donbas and into Ukrainian Crimea,

“Then when we were forced, and I want to underline this, forced to defend the Russian speaking population of Donbas, forced to respond to the struggle of the people living in Crimea to return to the Russian federation, [the U.S.] begins a wave of anti-Russian policies and introduces sanctions.” (ibid Damien Sharkov) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin, Merkel, and Hollande, are once again shouting from the rafters that,

".. they agreed that a Ukraine peace meeting would have to be "constructive and useful" toward ensuring a cease-fire and free elections." (ibid Angela Dewan)
....
"The Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe has said that only "significant and measurable progress" by Russia towards implementation of previous resolutions of the Assembly can form the basis for restoration of a fully-fledged, mutually respectful dialogue" (UT : Oct. 12, 2016)

This is rather succinctly summed up in the words of Ukraine's Parliament First Deputy Chairwoman Iryna Gerashchenko (right) that,

"They recognized that if the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the two speakers in the occupied territories, the OSCE cannot guarantee the security of the elections. Therefore, any elections in the occupied Donbas currently is out of the schedule. This is recorded in the PACE resolution, supported by 87 members of the Assembly. We have a powerful argument in our discussions with Western partners. It is difficult to overestimate." (ibid UT)

The obvious fact that the OSCE, currently chaired by that Putinversteher Walter Steinmeier (left), cannot guarantee the security of elections in the Donbas, Putin's desperation to have the sanctions against him and his siloviki lifted is now the main focus of his wanting this 'meeting' about Ukraine with Merkel and Hollande.
 
And notwithstanding the deepening military and economic collaboration between Putin and Erdogan, a potential President Clinton will want to INCREASE the sanctions against him and his siloviki clique, especially in light of what Putin is doing in Allepo, and Putin is well aware of this. 

Putin does not have time on his side.

And to now, suddenly, announce publicly that  he was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, thus admitting that thousands of Russian soldiers are operating in the Donbas, indicates his desperation to at least have 'his' framework for those 'elections' in the Donbas underwritten by Merkel and Hollande before the looming US presidential elections.

(to be continued)

Is Putin risking nuclear war to save face?

Given the fact that Putin has always lied to the world about his real mother, Vera Putina [1] [2] [3], and that he invented a story about 'a cornered rat' that he found in his surrogate parents' flat in St. Petersburg, it should come as no surprise that, being now cornered himself on the international stage, he is dangerously lashing out, bringing the world precipitously to the brink of war.

As reported by Harriet Agerholm (right),

"A Russian newspaper has warned that Russian President Vladmir Putin is playing an "astonishingly risky game" in the Syrian conflict that could even lead to a Third World War.

Popular tabloid, Moskovsky Komsomolets, ran an article that suggested hostilities in Syria could spark a “direct military confrontation" between the nations of a similar scale to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis." (The Independent : Friday 7 October 2016) (my emphasis)

And, rather disconcertingly,

"As relations between Russia and the US disintegrate as a result of the escalating proxy war in Syria,

[ ... ] tomorrow an unprecedented 40 million Russian citizens, as well as 200,000 specialists from "emergency rescue divisions" and 50,000 units of equipment are set to take part in a four day-long civil defense, emergency evacuation and disaster preparedness drill, the Russian Ministry for Civil Defense reported on its website." (Tyler Durden : Zero Hedge : Oct 4, 2016)

These dangerous developments come against the backdrop of,

"President Vladimir Putin [abandoning] a key nuclear disarmament treaty with the U.S. and [demanding] the removal of sanctions and troop reductions from Russia’s former Cold War enemy to restore the agreement.
...
In a separate document submitted to Russia’s parliament, Putin indicated his readiness to revive the treaty provided the U.S. reduces its military and troop presence in NATO member states to the level that existed on Sept. 1, 2000.


He also called for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, and the abolition of restrictions under the so-called Magnitsky Act of 2012, which was aimed at officials accused of involvement in the prison death of whistle-blower Sergei Magnitsky." (Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa: Bloomberg : October 3, 2016) (my emphasis)

 

A direct indication of Putin's current mind-set can also be gleaned from from a Bill of Amendments published on Monday (3rd October 2016) which further SLASHES the Welfare budget and INCREASES the Military Budget.

"Russia’s military spending is set to increase by 679 billion rubles ($10 billion) despite the welfare budget decreasing by 375 billion rubles ($6 billion), the Gazeta.ru news website reported Tuesday, citing a source in the government.
.....
Alexandra Suslina, an economic analyst, told Gazeta.ru that defense and social spending are the government’s priorities. 

All other areas of government would receive “whatever is leftover,” she said, adding that the economy was far from the government’s priority." (Moscow Times : Oct. 04 2016) (my emphasis)

In contrast, as Anders Åslund (left) points out,

"Ukraine’s immediate economic crisis has been resolved, but its economy remains fragile and still needs international support. If the new Ukrainian government becomes complacent, the country’s gains could be lost.
...
Ukraine has been climbing out of an economic hole that Yanukovych helped dig.
....
Ukraine is keeping up on its foreign payments. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) is buying foreign currency to maintain exchange-rate stability, and it has reduced inflation to just 8% (as of August) by gradually cutting interest rates and easing currency regulations.
...
[Last].. month [the IMF] approved a $1 billion loan, which could stabilize the exchange rate. The United States is expected to match the IMF tranche with a $1 billion loan guarantee, and the European Union will offer $673 million in macroeconomic-finance assistance." ( Project Syndicate : Oct 4, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin's 'demand' for an end to sanctions against Russia imposed in 2014 over the conflict in Ukraine, (ibid Stepan Kravchenko, Ilya Arkhipov, and Toluse Olorunnipa) also signifies that the Russian economy is in more of a downward tailspin than previously thought of  by many Western economists.

The international outcry against his bombings in Allepo has also raised the spectre of yet MORE sanctions against Putin.

As reported by Anton Troianovski, Laurence Norman and Julian E. Barnes,

"The German government is considering a push for European sanctions against Russia in response to its behavior in Syria, a person familiar with the German deliberations said on Wednesday, signaling that Europe is seeking new ways to pressure Moscow to quell the violence there." (Wall Street Journal : Oct. 5, 2016) (my emphasis)

Whether these new sanctions against Putin materialises or not, the mere fact that they are now part of the international diplomatic discourse can only serve to further propell him towards putting Russia onto a near total war footing.

(to be continued)