Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine

In my blog entry of 17 October, I quoted Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin (left) stating that,

"...  Putin has nothing to offer his people to gain their support and to consolidate public opinion except “militaristic rhetoric and short victorious wars.”  But the effect of those wars – and there have been three so far – quickly exhausts itself." (Paul Goble : 15 October, 2016)

And so it is that the Normandy Four meeting, with the participation of Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, and which took place in Berlin on the night of 19-20 October, seems to indicate that for Putin, at least, his war with Ukraine in the Donbas has somewhat exhausted itself.

It no longer serves the initially prime purpose of propping up himself and his 'siloviki'.  It has now become counter-productive. 

As reported by UNIAN,

"We often repeat like a mantra these days that the notorious sanctions are having little impact. But they do have an impact. We feel this above all in restrictions on technology transfers," he said at the eighth Russia Calling! Investment Forum organized by VTB Capital on Wednesday, October 12." (UNIAN :12 October 2016) (my emphasis)

Some of the long-term effects of the current impact of sanctions on Putin's Russian economy is best described by Russia's Economic Ministry projecting by just how much the Russian economy will stagnate over the next twenty years.

"Coming out of the recession in 2017, the economy in the next 20 years will grow very slowly - an average of 2% per year (from 1.7 to a maximum of 2.6%). It is about 1.5 times below the world average rates: thus Russia will all be shifted closer to the poorest countries. Increase GDP in 20 years will only be 1.5 times. Real incomes will rise by an average of 1.4% per year and will be released at the level of 2013 only in 2021, in 2035 it exceeded by less than 30%. For comparison, the same amount they have grown in 2006-2007." (Vedomosti :20.10.2016) (Google Translated from Russian) (my emphasis)

Yet, emerging from the Berlin Normandy Four meeting on the night of 19-20 October we have a 'roadmap'.

This 'roadmap', aimed at reviving the stalled peace process in eastern Ukraine must, according to Poroshenko,

".....  foresees consistency and guarantees. Implementing the security conditions, a ceasefire, withdrawing foreign troops, respect for the removal of military equipment, providing easy access for the OSCE, releasing hostages should go before the implementation of the political part." (Olena Makarenko (right) : Euromaidan Press : 20/10/2016) (my emphasis)

And herein lies the rub, rather succinctly expressed by Vitaliy Portnikov (left),

"And here the dialog stops because Hollande and Merkel clearly understand that without disarming criminals and a withdrawal of Russian troops, no elections are possible. But Putin understands just as clearly that after the disarmament of the criminals and withdrawal the Russian troops he does not need any elections. He will simply lose Donbas as a leverage of influence on Ukraine,” (ibid Olena Makarenko) (my emphasis)

More significantly,

"It is necessary to boost the efficiency of the OSCE monitoring mission and an armed police mission is needed there. Before the elections, we must have control over the border on the part of a permanent OSCE armed mission," [Poroshenko] said in an interview with the Ukraina television channel commenting on the results of the latest Normandy Four summit in Berlin." (Tass :  October 23, 2016) (my emphasis) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that Putin's Russian soldiers and rebel proxies continue to launch attacks against Ukrainian positions.

As reported by UT,

"Combined Russian-separatist forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in eastern Ukraine 35 times in the past day - 20 in the Mariupol sector, nine barrages in the Luhansk sector, and six in the Donetsk sector – including four artillery attacks." (UT : Oct. 24, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin has nowhere else to go except to continue with his military action against Ukraine.

Furthermore, Putin has to,

"... stick to his “classical line” – Ukraine must implement the political package first, including changes to the Constitution, the law on amnesty, and “direct negotiations” with the Russian mercenaries." (Vitaliy Portnikov (ibid Olena Makarenko)) (my emphasis)

Like the narcissistic Donald Trump on the verge of losing the US presidential race to Hillary Clinton, Putin cannot afford to lose in his war with Ukraine, no matter what the cost to the Russian people.

(to be continued)