Putin, Ukraine, and the US presidential race.

The US presidential election is now reaching its final stages, and the world is watching closely. Yet it could never have been predicted that the 'humble' email could become such a critical, and possibly determining, factor in these elections.

And while Russian hackers were busy trying to completely derail the Clinton campaign,

"A group of Ukrainian hackers has released thousands of emails from an account used by a senior Kremlin official that appear to show close financial and political ties between Moscow and separatist rebels in Eastern Ukraine.

The cache published by the Ukrainian group CyberHunta reveals contacts between President Vladimir Putin's adviser Vladislav Surkov (left) and the pro-Russia rebels fighting Ukrainian forces."
....
The email cache includes messages sent to Surkov by separatist leader Denis Pushilin with rebel casualty lists and expenses for the operation of a press center in the rebel capital, Donetsk.
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Another email from the office of Russian billionaire Konstantin Malofeev, who reportedly has ties to the rebels, contains a list of ministers in the separatist government prior to their official announcement. (The Telegraph : 27 October 2016) (my emphasis)

With the eyes of the world are focussed on the US presidential elections,

"During the last day of the Russia-backed forces launched 53 attacks and fire raids on Ukrainian army positions, Anti-Terrorist Operation HQ informs.

The tensest situation reported on Mariupol direction – 28 militant attacks took place here. The enemy used mortars of all kinds here and artillery of 122mm calibre." (UT : Oct. 30, 2016)

Also reported by UT,

"Russian proxies are attacking all over the frontline in Donetsk region, spokesman of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry Col. Andriy Lysenko told at the today's briefing.

The most powerful enemy shelling from the Donetsk direction traditionally held in the town of Avdiyivka. It lasted 4 hours continuously, mortars and light weapons were used." (UT : Oct. 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

More menacingly,

"The missile bunkers that dot the verdant hills along Crimea’s southern coast are known locally as Object 100. Now the bunkers are coming back online.
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After Russia took control of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, signs went up in the woods around the sites warning visitors against entering a “forbidden zone of the Russian Ministry of Defence.
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The bunkers are just one small part of a new Russian programme to militarise the Crimean peninsula."

Britain’s Defence Minister Michael Fallon (left) said in September that London was concerned about military buildup in Crimea “and indeed the militarisation of the Black Sea region generally. Both Bulgaria and Romania feel very threatened.” (Reuters : Nov. 1, 2016) (my emphasis)

 And it is now reported by Patrick Knox that,

"Ukraine’s armed services are working round the clock to dig trenches, install tank traps, road blocks and to build bunkers to repel an invasion.

But its military chiefs now fear a knock-out onslaught from the sky after they detected a massive Russian carrying out dummy runs on key installations.

Defence Intelligence Vadym Skibytskiy said: “The Russian leadership does not give up its aggressive plans for Ukraine, continuing to prepare for a possible large-scale offensive against our country.

“On October 26, using the obligations of the Republic of Belarus as an allied state, Russian combat aircraft worked out possible massive air strikes on strategic targets on the territory of Ukraine in the airspace of Belarus.” (The Sun : 1st November 2016) (my emphasis)

Which brings us back to the US presidential elections.

Clemence Michallon reports that,

"A server at the Trump Organization may have communicated secretively with Russia, a group of computer scientists believe.
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The communications, according to the experts, followed the pattern of human exchanges, as opposed to automated conversations. They occurred during office hours in New York and Moscow and showed a 'sustained relationship' between the server registered to Trump Organization and Alfa Bank, Slate reported.

'The parties were communicating in a secretive fashion. The operative word is secretive. This is more akin to what criminal syndicates do if they are putting together a project,' internet pioneer and DNS author Paul Vixie told Slate." (Mail Online : 1 November 2016) (cf : Franklin Foer : Slate article, and Colin Taylor : October 31, 2016)

Could it be this that has led Hillary Clinton to recently call for a FBI investigation into Donald Trump's links with Putin's Russia?

As stated before, Putin is wishing for a Trump victory in the US presidential race. He stated so rather openly at his recent annual 3+ hour marathon session at Valdai. 

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump behaved extravagantly during his campaign because he represented ordinary voters and wanted to get his message across. 

  

"He has chosen a method to get through to voters' hearts," Putin told foreign policy experts in southern Russia.

  

"He (Trump) behaves extravagantly of course, we see this, but I think there's a reason for this."(Reuters : Thu Oct 27, 2016)

Which puts into perspective the current uptick of attacks against Ukrainian forces by Putin's Russian soldiers and proxies in the Donbas, as well as his military buildup in Crimea.

A Trump win would enable him to unleash his forces against Ukraine without having to concern himself about an American response or, for that matter, any credible response from the EU.

On the other hand, a Clinton victory would caution him against such a reckless act, whilst at the same time presenting a President Clinton with a fait accompli regarding his military buildup in Crimea.

We will then see Putin throwing even more resources into getting the building of his land-bridge between Russia and Crimea speeded up.

(to be continued)