Will Putin's euphoria over the election of Trump be short-lived?

Flavien Schaller (left) was appointed Chief Observer of the OSCE Observer Mission at the Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk on 1 May 2016. (OSCE )

And on 17 November, 2016, the US OSCE acknowledged to Flavien Schaller that,

"We [ ...] wish to express our appreciation for your leadership of a Mission that operates in difficult and restrictive conditions. Border monitoring by the OSCE is an integral part of the Minsk agreements, and is indispensable to de-escalating the fighting and assessing Russia’s willingness to end its intervention in Ukraine. (US OSCE : 17 November, 2016) (my emphasis)

Furthermore that,

"The [OSCE] Observer Mission has observed more than 30,000 [Russian] individuals in military-style dress crossing just at the two checkpoints to which it has access. (ibid US OSCE) (my emphasis)

This dramatically puts into perspective the fact that, 

"[The OSCE border mission in the Donbas under Flavien Schaller ] remains limited to two out of eleven checkpoints on the border between Russia and separatist-held parts of Ukraine" (ibid US OSCE) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, the EU is still coming to grips with the Trump presidential victory, as expressed by the 'fragrant' Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief.

 

 

"Ms Mogherini said relations between the Kremlin and Brussels are not “black and white” and the EU was pursuing “constructive but also selective engagement” with Russia.

She added: “There is a strong principled position especially on Ukraine and on the other conflicts that we have to our east and our attention to our eastern partners is going to stay and stay strong.” (Cyrus Engineer : Sunday Express : Mon, Nov 14, 2016) (my emphasis)

And whilst the EU is still coming to grips with the Trump presidential victory,

"The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine has seen the biggest number of ceasefire violations along the frontline in Donbas in 2016, the mission's Principal Deputy Chief Monitor Alexander Hug (left) said on Thursday..
...
"Last week the number of ceasefire violations, seen by the OSCE mission, has risen by 160% comparing to the previous situation. This is the biggest number of shellings since the beginning of the year," he claimed during a briefing in Kyiv." (UT : Nov. 17, 2016) (my emphasis)

Putin is accelerating his onslaught against Ukraine as yet more of his Russian soldiers pour across the Donbas border where the OSCE is prevented from monitoring, whilst the EU continues to vacillate to give Ukraine the military assistance that it needs to defend itself against this onslaught of Putin's.

This is best expressed by retired Marine Corps Gen. James Mattis (right), who stated that,

"... Russia’s military moves against its neighbors—taking Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine is "much more severe, more serious" than Washington and the European Union are treating it." (Unian : 19 November 2016) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile Donald Tusk (left), current President of the EU, in a call to president-elect Donald Trump, has,

"... stressed the need for transatlantic cooperation on Ukraine during a phone call Friday with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump ..

...

"Tusk congratulated Trump on his election, invited him for an EU-US summit and emphasized transatlantic cooperation including regarding Ukraine," (Unian : 19 November 2016) (my emphasis)

The Putin-friendly 'fragrant' Mogherini and Donald Tusk seem to underscore what James Mattis has said, namely that " ...  Russia’s military moves against its neighbors—taking Crimea and backing separatists in Ukraine is "much more severe, more serious" than Washington and the European Union are treating it."

There is, however, a 'silver lining' for Ukraine with some of president-elect Trump's recent government appointments.

"Trump said in a statement he had chosen Representative Mike Pompeo (right) (Republican-Kansas) to be CIA director ...

...

Pompeo, who is currently a member of the House Intelligence Committee is known in particular for his statements in support of Ukraine in its resistance to Russian aggression.

In April 2014, Mike Pompeo visited Ukraine and then stated that the aim of Russian President Vladimir Putin was to take control over Ukraine." (Unian : 18 November 2016) (my emphasis)

Then there is the possibility that,

"President-elect Donald Trump is very interested in the idea of having retired Marine Gen. James Mattis (see above) serve in his administration and he can be considered a leading candidate for secretary of defense, an official familiar with the transition process told CNN Saturday." (Phil Mattingly : CNN : November 20, 2016) (my emphasis)

Trump is also flirting with the possiblity of Mitt Romney as his Secretary of State, a key position in his upcoming administration.

Trump met with Romney yesterday, and they had,

"...  a far-reaching conversation with regards to the various theaters in the world where there are interests of the United States of real significance," Romney said. "We discussed those areas and exchanged our views on those topics — a very thorough and in-depth discussion in the time we had and, I appreciated the chance to speak with the president-elect and look forward to the coming administration." (Ledyard King : USA Today : November 19, 2016) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by VOA,

"Trump’s and Romney’s positions on U.S. relations with Russia have differed noticeably. Romney said in 2012 that Russia was America’s “No. 1 geopolitical foe,” but President-elect Trump has spoken warmly about the possibility of close cooperation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in a campaign to destroy the Islamic State group.

After speaking by telephone with Putin earlier this week, Trump said he anticipates a “strong and enduring relationship with Russia.” (VOA : November 19, 2016)

Until such time as the complete Trump administration appointments are finalised, much of what may be anticipated about his choice of appointments is, at this stage, rather speculative.

To this extent, the euphoria of Putin, his 'siloviki', and the Russian Duma, when Trump was elected, may be rather short-lived.

The future prospects of Ukraine hangs by a slender thread.

(to be continued)