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Friday 21 September 2018

Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?

On 14 September, 2018, Angela Merkel said that,

"Before the Minsk [2] agreement has been implemented or progress has been made in that regard, we will not consider lifting sanctions on Russia."." (DW- Deutsche Welle : 14-9-2018) (my emphasis)

The only problem with this pronouncement of the 'Putinversteher' Merkel is that she still insists that the 'dead horse' of Minsk2 has to be implemented.

Possibly aware that this is an impossible task, she now adds the caveat, "or progress has been made in that regard", thus limiting the FULL implementation of the Minsk2 proposals.

In so doing, Merkel has given to Putin the green light that if he implements only one of the Minsk2 proposals, then the sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki', for illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea, and starting a war against Ukraine in the Donbas, will start to be lifted.

One need only refer to the following Minsk2 proposals to discover the 'lifting of sanctions' bonanza that Merkel is giving Putin. (cf: Wikipedia for full proposals)
  • Provide pardon and amnesty by way of enacting a law that forbids persecution and punishment of persons in relation to events that took place in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine.
  • Provide release and exchange of all hostages and illegally held persons, based on the principle of "all for all". This process has to end – at the latest – on the fifth day after the pullout (of weapons).
  • Provide safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to the needy, based on an international mechanism.

And almost in the same breath, Merkel insisted that,

" .... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, [..] made economic sense." (The Baltic Times : 15/9/2018), which was sweet music to the ears of Putin.

It is no wonder that Petro Poroshenko, Ukraine's President, correctly stated that,

" ... [] the Russian authorities will seek ways in January to weaken sanctions imposed on them. "The ruble is weakening even amid growing prices of crude oil. The Russian authorities were forced to raise the retirement age. They had to increase VAT. This is the cost of aggression" (UNIAN : 20 Sept. 2018) (my emphasis)

But all is not going Putin's way.

As reported by Xinhua News,

"U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday issued an executive order to further implement a U.S. sanction act against Russia.
.....
"These sanction actions are "in response to Russia's aggression in Ukraine, annexation of Crimea, cyber intrusions and attacks, interference in the 2016 elections, and other malign activities," [U.S. State Department spokesperson Heather] Nauert (left) said" (Xinhua News : 21 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

UNIAN further reports that,

"The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise, which aims to promote regional security and improve that country's cooperation with NATO members, the military said Tuesday.

The U.S. plans to send about 450 personnel from bases in the States and in Europe, a U.S. Air Forces in Europe spokesman said Tuesday." (UNIAN : 18 September, 2018) (my emphasis)


And as Dominic Nicholls also reports,

"Britain will increase military support to its ally by sending Royal Marines later this year and increase the presence of Royal Navy patrols in the Black Sea in 2019.  Odessa, Ukraine’s biggest port, located in the west of the country, is expected to come under pressure from the Russian Navy over the coming months as they try to effect an economic blockade." (The Telegraph : 20 September, 2018) (my emphasis)


Now recall that in my last blog entry (15/9/2018) I stated that

"This interest-rate rise, coming on top of the demonstrations in Russia against Putin's recent 'pension reforms', and the turning of Manafort into Mueller's witness, once again raises the issue of Putin's recklessness in response."

Now, compounding Putin's 'recklessness of response, we have :-
  • further implementation of US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki'
  • The U.S. Air Force and eight other nations will participate next month in independent Ukraine's largest aviation exercise and,
  • Britain to increase military and naval support to Ukraine.
The dangling of the measured lifting of EU sanctions in front of Putin's eyes by Angela Merkel, if there is "some progress" in implementing Minsk2, will not lessen Putin's recklessness of response, especially in light of the above developments.

We now have to ask ourselves :

"Is Putin now cursing the day he gave Trump the keys to the White House?"

(to be continued)

Saturday 15 September 2018

Like Trump, Putin is now staring into the abyss of the unknown.

The 'Scarlet Thread of Maidan', that has woven itself from the revolution of Maidan (2014) into the 2016 US presidential elections, has yesterday (14 Sept. 2018) burst onto the stage of the Robert Mueller investigation into the collusion between Putin, his 'siloviki', and Donald Trump, that ultimately led to Trump obtaining the keys to the White House.

The 'Scarlet Thread of Maidan' has always been hovering in the background of the Mueller investigation until yesterday, when the Putin-Manafort-Trump cabal fell apart as Manafort pleaded guilty to Mueller's upcoming charges against him. Manafort will now be 'spilling all the beans' about the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential election, when he was in charge of running the Trump election-machine.


For Putin, his 'siloviki', and Trump, this 'turning' of Manafort towards helping the Mueller investigation spells nothing short of disaster.


Manafort pleading 'guilty' before the court Judge yesterday offers insight into what he was pleading guilty to, and how it will further propel Trump towards the gallows of 'impeachment'.


Now recall that in my blog entry of  30 March, 2018, I wrote that,

"Diana Denman (right), a platform committee member from Texas, had proposed at the [2016] Republican National Security Committee platform meeting in Cleveland,

".... a platform amendment that would call for maintaining or increasing sanctions against Russia, increasing aid for Ukraine and “providing lethal defensive weapons” to the Ukrainian military."

It is now emerging, as reported by Mark Hosenball (left), that,

"Investigators probing whether Donald Trump’s presidential campaign colluded with Russia have been questioning witnesses about events at the 2016 Republican National Convention, according to two sources familiar with Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s inquiries." (Reuters : March 29, 2018) (my emphasis)"

At the Republican Convention, the phrase "lethal defensive weapons" was deleted from the original Denman resolution.

"But the final platform language deleted the reference to “lethal defensive weapons,” a change that made the platform less hostile to Russia, whose troops had invaded the Crimean peninsula and eastern Ukraine." (ibid Mark Hosenball)


Will Manafort now finally reveal that it was Trump, himself, who sanctioned these changes to Denman's resolution that supported Ukraine?

And on the heels of Manafort turning into a Mueller witness, we now also hear, as reported by Max Seddon, that the,
   
"Russia’s central bank has raised its main interest rate for the first time in almost four years, following Turkey in taking steps to defend its currency amid emerging market turmoil.The bank raised raised its benchmark lending rate by 0.25 percentage points to 7.50 per cent.
 ...
Central bank governor Elvira Nabiullina (left) said she felt moved to act after inflation rose to 3.1 per cent in August — higher than the central bank’s predictions. The central bank expects inflation to reach 5.5 per cent next year before beginning to revert to the baseline target of 4 per cent by 2020, she said" (Financial Times : 14 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

This interest-rate rise, coming on top of the demonstrations in Russia against Putin's recent 'pension reforms', and the turning of Manafort into Mueller's witness, once again raises the issue of Putin's recklessness in response.

Like Trump, Putin is now staring into the abyss of the unknown.

(to be continued)

Tuesday 11 September 2018

Has Putin decided to 'throw caution to the wind'?

In my last blog entry (2/9/2018) I wrote that,

"More significantly, as reported by UNIAN,

"Washington is ready to expand arms supplies to Ukraine in order to build up the country’s naval and air defense forces in the face of continuing Russian support for militants in Donbas, according to the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker. (left)" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis) 

Trump cannot come to Putin's rescue either on the implementation of possible new US sanctions against himself and his cronies, nor on the impending expansion of arms to Ukraine since Trump, himself, is fast beginning to loose favor with the American public."

Putin is now attempting a full blockade in the Sea of Azov to Ukrainian ships.
 
As Stephen Blank (right) reports, 
 
" ..... [ ] in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea, Moscow is waging a simultaneous military and economic war against Kyiv. It has blockaded the Sea of Azov to Ukrainian ships, demands the right to inspect “foreign” vessels, and has extended a maritime exclusion zone all the way to Odesa, Ukraine." (Atlantic Council : September 7, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
Putin's attempt to blockade the Sea of Azov has, however, been met by Ukraine, which has,
 
" ... started deploying modern armoured artillery boats at the Azov region to counter Russian aggression in the south of Ukraine, the organization of coastal defense and protection of the Azov Sea coast... [I]t is expected that three small armoured artillery boats will be deployed to the Azov Sea, which today will be the most powerful units in this region." (Maritime Security News : 10 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

More ominously, however, as reported by Mark Hodge,

"Russia [is sending] ‘up to 1,000 tanks towards country’s border with Ukraine’ as tensions with the West continue to escalate

This comes amid rising tensions in Ukraine following the killing of pro-Russian separatist leader Aleksandr Zakharchenko who died in a bomb attack at a café in Kiev." ( The Sun : 5 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

This movement of Putin's tanks towards the Ukrainian border coincides with the fact that yesterday,

"Russian-led forces mounted 25 attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas in the past 24 hours." (UNIAN : 10 September, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin, it would seem, has decided to 'throw caution to the wind'.

One could argue that in part, this recklessness of Putin has been precipitated by his need to deflect the gaze of the Russian people away from what is fast becoming his 'ill-fated pension reform', as well as the recent acceleration of Trump towards the gallows of 'impeachment'


As Andrei Kolesnikov (right) writes,

"Putin’s recent fall in approval ratings has been steep. The main reason for the slump in ratings is the government’s proposal to increase the retirement age from 60 to 65 for men and from 55 to 60 for women.
...
Putin’s successful foreign policy agenda is starting to lose its power to command public support in the face of growing domestic frustrations.
...
Still, if Putin’s low approval ratings persist, the Kremlin will likely try to create some sort of spectacle to distract attention from Russia’s many social problems. It may want to double down on dramatic foreign policy gestures, but, as mentioned above, these have lost their potency." (Carnegie Moscow Center : 15 August, 2018) (my emphasis)

 And it is this 'doubling down on dramatic foreign policy issues' that is making Putin dangerously 'throw caution to the wind'.

It is no wonder that Petro Poroshenko (left), Ukraine's President, recently pronounced that,

"He said the Ukrainian Armed Forces and a strong army is the guarantee of peace.

"The stronger our army, the sooner peace will come. The stronger the international solidarity around Ukraine, the sooner peace will come.

The tougher sanctions against the aggressor country, the sooner peace will come," Poroshenko said." (UNIAN : 8 September,2018) (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Sunday 2 September 2018

Putin is now trapped between demonstrating Russians, possible new US sanctions, and US arms flowing into Ukraine.

You can fool some of the people all of the time,
All of the people some of the time,
But you cannot fool all of the people, all of the time.
(Abraham Lincoln)

So it is that Vladimir Putin, the 'teflon' czar of Russia, has backed down from his 'pension reform', a reform that attempted to raise the retirement age of Russians already struggling under the yoke of a failing economy, in the face of a growing chorus of Russians demonstrating against this reform.


Adding to Putin's current woes is the fact that, as reported by RFERL,

"President Vladimir Putin and Russia's Security Council have described possible new U.S. sanctions against Moscow as "absolutely illegal," Russian news agencies quoted Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov as saying." (RERL : August 10, 2018) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, it should come as no surprise that Dmitry Medvedev is now echoing Putin's anger at the demonstrating Russians by stating that, 

"... Moscow would consider it a "declaration of economic war" and would retaliate "economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means" if the United States imposes bans on Russian banks or their use of a particular currency." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Further raising the anger of Putin is, as reported by Ray Sanchez and Nathan Hodge,

"The leader of Russian-backed separatists [Alexander Zakharchenko (right)] in Ukraine's Donetsk region was killed in an explosion at a cafe Friday, Russian state news agencies and separatist officials said." (CNN : August 31, 2018)

This anger of Putin is perhaps best expressed by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (below left), who, in the immediate aftermath of  Zakharchenko's death, stated that,

"... further talks in the Normandy Four format were "impossible" after the murder of the leader of the "DPR" terrorist organization, Alexander Zakharchenko" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis)

Yet, only two weeks ago,

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (right) told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper Germany hoped to "create new momentum" in the Minsk peace process" (CNBC : Sun, 19 Aug 2018) (my emphasis)

Where, now, does this recent pronouncement of Lavrov leave Merkel and Maas?

More significantly, as reported by UNIAN,

"Washington is ready to expand arms supplies to Ukraine in order to build up the country’s naval and air defense forces in the face of continuing Russian support for militants in Donbas, according to the U.S. special envoy for Ukraine, Kurt Volker. (left)" (UNIAN : 01 September 2018) (my emphasis) 

Trump cannot come to Putin's rescue either on the implementation of possible new US sanctions against himself and his cronies, nor on the impending expansion of arms to Ukraine since Trump, himself, is fast beginning to loose favor with the American public.

 As reported by MSNBC (31 Aug. 2018),

"... Disapproval of President Trump's job performance has reached a new high. ... Just 36% of Americans approve of the President's job performance, with 60% disapproving ..."


In two months time the mid-term US elections will be held. The Democratic Party may, after these elections, control the House of Congress.

Trump is already considering the possibility of the start of impeachment proceedings against him if the Democrats win control of the US Congress this coming November. (cf. Steve Benen : MSNBC : 23 August, 2018)

Did Medvedev therefor have the US mid-term elections in mind when he stated that,

"... Moscow would consider it a "declaration of economic war" and would retaliate "economically, politically, or, if needed, by other means" if the United States imposes bans on Russian banks or their use of a particular currency." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

Putin is now trapped between the rock of demonstrating Russians and the hard place of possible new US sanctions, and US arms flowing into Ukraine.

Will he now redouble his efforts to ensure that the Republicans win in the November mid-term elections, as he did for Trump during the 2016 US presidential elections?

(to be continued)