War with Ukraine is NOW the ONLY tool that Putin has in his political toolbox.

The one thing that Putin has dangerously miscaculated since massing his troops along the Ukrainian-Russian border was that neither the US nor, for that matter, either NATO or critical members of the EU, will simply allow themselves to be cowed by his 'mafia-like' threats or demands.

Putin's so-called "red lines" about NATO, US, and EU support for Ukraine have now escalated into "mafia" demands that NATO, in particular, remove ALL its links and support from previous Warsaw Pact countries that now enjoy living under NATO's  protective umbrella.

                                            Channel 4 : Youtube : 20 December 2021

 

Even that "favourite" threat of Putin viz. unleashing nuclear war, has NOT made the Western supporters of Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity blink!

BBC News : Youtube : 20 December 2021

As reported by Marc Bennetts,

"Moscow threatened an escalation in tensions with western countries if Nato does not meet its demand to withdraw forces from member states in eastern and central Europe, with Russian state media warning viewers that the two powers could go to war.

“The United States must sign off on its hegemony; its hegemony is over,” a presenter on the Rossiya 1 channel said,

“Either they step back voluntarily or we’ll make them do it by force. And Russia makes no guarantees about the survival of Ukraine, especially as a sovereign state. Maybe we really are on the eve of war with Nato.” (The Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

We now also learn that,

"Now the United States and Britain have quietly dispatched cyberwarfare experts to Ukraine in hopes of better preparing the country to confront what they think may be the next move by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia as he again menaces the former Soviet republic: Not an invasion with the 175,000 troops he is massing on the border, but cyberattacks that take down the electric grid, the banking system, and other critical components of Ukraine’s economy and government." (David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes (right): New York Times : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

More significantly, the US Embassy in Ukraine has issued a 'Level 4 : Do Not Travel' to US citizens, partly because,

" .... advise U.S. citizens not to travel to Ukraine due to COVID-19 and to reconsider travel due to increased threats from Russia." (US Embassy Kyiv : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Yuras Karmanau reports that,

"Poland and Lithuania joined Ukraine on Monday to call for stronger Western sanctions against Moscow amid a Russian troop buildup near the Ukrainian border that has fueled fears of an invasion.
...
the three leaders “called upon the international community to step up sanctions on the Russian Federation over its ongoing aggression against Ukraine and once again urged the Kremlin to de-escalate the situation by withdrawing its troops from the Ukrainian borders and temporarily occupied territories.” (AP News : 20 December 2021) (my emphasis)

It is not, however, only the US and 'some' EU countries who are strongly supporting Ukraine.

As reported by Matthew Bryza and Grady Wilson,

"Ankara is raising the stakes by doubling down on its defense cooperation with Kyiv and recommitting itself to the continued sale of dozens of Bayraktar TB2 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), much to Russia’s ire.
...
Even more compelling is Turkey’s growing concern over an expansionist (and revanchist) Russia near its borders in the Black Sea and South Caucasus regions. Ankara has responded to Moscow’s aggression by becoming one of the strongest proponents of enlarging NATO membership to include both Ukraine and Georgia—even while offering to mediate the conflict in Ukraine." (Atlantic Council : 16 Decem,ber 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin has painted himself into a corner from which there is no escape, except to do the unthinkable and plunge Russia into a war with Ukraine that will have consequences throughout Europe and, possibly, the world.

This is the ONLY tool that Putin now has in his political toolbox.

(to be continued)

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

Today (7 December 2021) US President Biden will be having a a 'video call' with Putin amid critically mounting tensions over Ukraine.

As reported by BBC News,

"US President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin will speak via video call on Tuesday, the White House says, amid mounting tensions over Ukraine.

It comes after Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the US had evidence that Russia had made plans for a "large scale" attack on Ukraine.
....
On Friday, Mr Biden warned he would make it "very, very difficult" for Mr Putin to "go ahead and do what people are worried he may do" The US and its European allies have discussed imposing sanctions on Russia if it takes aggressive action." (BBC News : 5 December 2021) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my blog entry of 15 July, 2021, I wrote that,

"Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox."

I also reported that,

"As Anders Åslund (left) observes,"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin is about to take a fateful step by readying the Russian army to invade Ukraine and, in so doing, dragging the EU into finally make a choice between protecting the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine and preventing a bloodbath on European soil OR simply sitting on the sidelines wringing their hands in anguish.

US President Biden is stepping up to the plate by warning Putin of the economic cost to Russia if he DARE invade Ukraine.

One is somewhat reminded of Hitler's invasion of Czechoslovakia in 1939, AFTER the German annexation of the Sudetenland in 1938. 

As Hitler stated in 1938,

"I am asking neither that Germany be allowed to oppress three and a half million Frenchmen, nor am I asking that three and a half million Englishmen be placed at our mercy. Rather I am simply demanding that the oppression of three and a half million Germans in Czechoslovakia cease and that the inalienable right to self-determination take its place.
    — Adolf Hitler's speech at the NSDAP Congress 1938" (Wikipedia)

Rather rings a bell when considering Putin's justifications regarding his war with Ukraine in the Donbass, and his illegal invasion of, and annexation of, Ukraine's Crimea into the Russian federation.

Yet for SEVEN YEARS, since 2014, powerful member states in the EU have constantly walked the line of appeasement with Putin as he ramped up his proxy war with Ukraine.

Now, as Angela Merkel packs up her belongings in the Office of the Chancellor of Germany to make way for the new German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, his pick for the new Foreign Minister of Germany, Annalena Baerbock, has long been an opponent of Nord Stream2.

As reported by Louis Westendarp,

"Germany should not grant the Nord Stream 2 pipeline regulatory approval and resist Russian "blackmail" on energy prices, Annalena Baerbock, (left) the co-chair of the German Green party, said in an interview published on Wednesday by the Funke media group.

"We can't allow ourselves to be blackmailed" by Russia, Baerbock said, adding that Moscow plays a "poker game" and is partly responsible for the high gas prices in Europe. "Gas deliveries have been driven down considerably", she said.

This is a situation "intentionally brought about" in order to "force the rapid commissioning of Nord Stream 2", Baerbock concluded." (Politico : 20 October 2021) (my emphasis)

Like Putin's "White Elephant" bridge between Russia and Crimea, the Nord Stream2 pipeline may prove to be yet another "White Elephant" of Putin's.

Provided, of course, that Annalena Baerbock can put a plug in Nord Stream2 in the face of the powerful German Industrial and Business lobby, who simply cannot wait to to fill their coffers with Russian Roubles.

Today's impending "video call" between US President Biden and Vladimir Putin will have far reaching  global political repercussions.

Can Putin's "siloviki" reign him in from jumping into the abyss?

(to be continued)