On Russia's Victory Day celebration, will Putin declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

Today (8th May 2022), on VE Day in Europe and the West, Ali Velshi (left) outlines the eery similarities between the impending military celebration tomorrow (9th May) in Red Square, to be overseen by Vladimir Putin, and the 9th May Celebrations in 1995, overseen by former Russian president, Boris Yeltsin.

The 1995 VE Day celebrations in Russia took place whilst the Russian army was laying waste to Grozny, the capital of Chechnya.

And to-morrow, Vladimir Putin will be overseeing the VE military celebrations in Red Square as the Russian army is laying waste to Mariupol in Ukraine.

As Velshi reminds us,

"On that day .. May 9th 1995... Victory Day... even as Russia celebrated its heroic victory over Germany 50 years prior ...  Russia was deep into a brutal scortched earth campaign into the breakaway province of Chechnya .. In fact, the very next segment (cf video above) of the nightly news broadcast from May 9th 1995 was from Chechnya. It's impossible to watch it now and not see nearly word for word ... and image for image ... the parallels to today...

And on the eve of this victory day ... this year ... it describes the Ukrainian city of Mariupol ... where the last Ukrainian troops in that city remain holed up in a giant steel plant that has been the sight of an ongoing battle with Russian forces for days now" (MSNBC :  7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Jenny Hill (left),

" ... But this year will be different. Russia is at war once again - this time with its neighbour.
...
The question of what Mr Putin might do has set analysts guessing and rumours swirling.
...
The Kremlin has dismissed as nonsense reports that he might use the opportunity to officially declare war on Ukraine - or even the West - and seek to mobilise reservists or even civilians to replenish his depleted army.
...
But many experts assume that, at the very least, he'll dress up any territorial gains in eastern Ukraine as a victory worthy of celebration. Though that's unlikely to mean the end of the war. Mr Gallyamov makes a fascinating prediction, that Mr Putin will then present Ukraine with an ultimatum - come to the negotiating table or choose to fight on and face the threat of a tactical nuclear weapon. (BBC News : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Will Putin go nuclear?

Former British Diplomat, John Dobson (right) quotes Graham Allison, Professor of Government at Harvard University [as being] of the opinion that,

“if Putin is forced to choose between losing on one hand in Ukraine and escalating the level of destruction, there is every reason to believe that he’ll escalate the level of destruction”
...

“The nightmare scenario I envisage”, said Allison, “is that Dvornikov (left) conducts a nuclear strike on a small city in Ukraine, maybe 20,000 people, and then challenges Zelenskyy to imagine what a Ukrainian ‘Nagasaki’ would look like”—recalling that it was the Americans who dropped the first atomic bomb on Hiroshima, killing more than 100,000 people, and then another bomb on Nagasaki before the Japanese emperor surrendered." (Sunday Guardian : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

However, as I quoted Evelyn Farkas in my last blog post,

" ..... this 'nuclear' business [Putin's and Lavrov's threat to use 'nuclear' force] is frankly not only irresponsible but also doesn't make sense because we have deterrence .. we have nuclear forces also at every level. If the Russian forces want to go there then they will be signing their own death certificate" (ibid CNN) (my emphasis).

 

The 'butcher of Allepo', Dvornikov, may be straining at the leash to unleash 'nuclear' hell on the world whereas Putin has been left to clean up the diplomatic mess of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.

As reported by BBC News,

"Russia's President Vladimir Putin has apologised after his foreign minister said that Nazi leader Adolf Hitler had "Jewish blood", Israel says. Mr Putin made the apology in a call with Israeli PM Naftali Bennett, his office said in a statement....Russia's account of the conversation did not mention an apology." (BBC News : 6 May 2022) (my emphasis)

Even more disturbing for Putin, there is a tsunami of 'Russian diplomatic mess' brewing in Africa for Russia that he will soon have to contend with.

Many states in Africa that have chosen to pay 'lip service' to the UN condemnation of Putin's war with Ukraine now find themselves in the front line of having to cope with the very real economic and political repercussions that Putin's war in Ukraine is having in their countries.

As reported by The Economist, Putin's war in Ukraine has exacerbated the fuel problems in many countries in Africa.

"IN BURUNDI, DRIVERS are so desperate for fuel that they sleep on forecourts of petrol stations. Senegal has so little jet fuel that Air France’s flight from the capital, Dakar, to Paris has been stopping in the Canary Islands to fill up. Johannesburg has the same problem, which has caused United Airlines to cancel some flights from New York. From Kenya, which recently suffered its worst petrol shortage in a decade, to Lagos, where queues outside petrol stations backed onto motorways, and Cameroon, where thousands of lorries have been stranded without diesel, Africa has been short of the lifeblood of modern economies." (The Economist : 7 May 2022) (my emphasis)

As also earlier reported by Sally Hayden in Nairobi,

"From fuel to wheat, the invasion of Ukraine is already having a potentially devastating effect on prices across Africa.

• In Sierra Leone, a West African country with a population of roughly 8 million people, the maximum cost of a litre of fuel went from 12,000 leones (93c) per litre to 15,000 (€1.16) on Thursday.
•  More than 1,000km away, in Ghana, the cost of a litre of fuel went from roughly 6.4 cedis (79c) to 10 cedis (€1.23) a litre in just a few weeks, while the conversion rate for 1,000 cedis went from $150 to $125, said journalist Fentuo Tahiru Fentuo.
• In east Africa, the availability of wheat is of particular concern. Russia and Ukraine supply almost 90 per cent of Kenya’s wheat imports, according to figures released by the UN.

“War in Ukraine means hunger in Africa,” International Monetary Fund managing director Kristalina Georgieva told journalists." (The Irish Times : 20 March 2022) (my emphasis)

So what can we expect from Putin to-morrow.

Will he declare war on Ukraine that is bound to generate the anger of Russian mothers against him as their sons are conscripted to fight in Ukraine?

Will he declare victory in Ukraine in the face of defeat by Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)