Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

Mark Twain popularized the phrase, " .. lies, damned lies, and statistics" though its origin is rather difficult to trace, as was discovered by a member of the Department of Mathematics at York University.

Wikipedia gives a rather concise summary of the meaning of this phrase.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics to bolster weak arguments."

Now whilst sceptical about the underlying assumptions of the art of mathematical 'statistical' analyses it is interesting, nonetheless, to note that,

(Erik C. Nisbet & Olga Kamenchuk: Quartz : 24 November 2019)

Taking these results at their 'face value' it would seem that 44% of the respondents indicated that Zelensky should take something of a strong stand against Trump trying to shake him down like some Mafia boss.

Zelensky's office has, however,

"... denied a request from a political rival to release its records of a July 25 call between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and U.S. President Donald Trump – a call that in the United States is at the heart of the impeachment inquiry." (Pamela Falk :CBS News : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as reported by Caitlin Oprysko,

“I think everybody in Ukraine is so tired about Burisma,” Zelensky responded in an exasperated tone. “We have our own country. We have our independence, we have our problems and questions. That's it."

Zelensky did not respond to further prodding by the reporter, rolling his eyes as aides whisked him away." (Politico: 19 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by Natalia Zinets,

“The IMF staff team had constructive and productive discussions with the Ukrainian authorities and commended them on the considerable progress made during the last few months in advancing reforms and continuing with sound economic policies,” it said in a statement. (Reuters : 23 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Note that these were "constructive and productive discussions", notwithstanding the fact that, as I wrote in my previous blog (14/11/2019),

"As reported by Anton Troianovski (left),

"Mr. Kolomoisky, widely seen as Ukraine’s most powerful figure outside government, given his role as the patron of the recently elected President Volodymyr Zelensky, has experienced a remarkable change of heart: It is time, he said, for Ukraine to give up on the West and turn back toward Russia.

“They’re stronger anyway. We have to improve our relations,” he said, comparing Russia’s power to that of Ukraine. “People want peace, a good life, they don’t want to be at war. And you” — America — “are forcing us to be at war, and not even giving us the money for it.” (New York Times : 13 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Maybe this Kolomoisky "change of heart" has something to do with the fact that, as Ian Talley (right) reported,

"The International Monetary Fund has put off a bailout for Ukraine because it is worried the country’s president won’t recoup billions of dollars allegedly looted from banks—including one once controlled by a close supporter [Ihor Kolomoisky]—according to people familiar with the negotiations.

 ...

The IMF told President Volodymyr Zelensky he must aggressively pursue the missing money to deliver on his vow to clean up a financial system sapped by fraud, money laundering and theft." (Washington Post : 31 October 2019) (my emphasis)"

So are we to now surmise that, given those "constructive and productive discussions" Zelensky's team had with the IMF that a rift between  Kolomoisky and Zelensky is beginning to develop?

Will the Zelensky team "throw Kolomoisky under the bus", so to speak, to obtain the much needed IMF "fund to replace a $3.9 billion stand-by arrangement that expires in January." (ibid Natalia Zinets)

This is Zelensky's "Kennedy moment" when, in 1962, US President John Kennedy boldly confronted Nikita Khrushchev during a 13-day (October 16–28, 1962) confrontation between the United States and the Soviet Union initiated by the American discovery of Soviet ballistic missile deployment in Cuba. (Wikipedia)

In this case we do not have missiles but the recouping of $billions looted by Zelensky's patron, Kolomoisky, from his own Privat Bank.... from the people of Ukraine.

But there is yet another "Kennedy moment" looming ahead for Zelensky.

I refer, of course, to the upcoming December Normandy Format meeting between Putin, Macron, Merkel, and Zelensky.

As reported by Expatica,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin will meet his Ukranian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky in Paris on December 9 for their first face-to-face encounter, seeking to end the half-decade conflict in Ukraine, the French presidency said Friday."

The leaders will join French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel for the four-way summit aimed at resolving the conflict in the east of Ukraine, where pro-Moscow separatists have declared breakaway regions, the Elysee Palace said. (Expatica : 21 November 2019) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding the facts that,

"Ukraine's navy says that the three ships captured by Russia almost a year ago and released on November 19 have been returned in very poor condition and are not able to make it back to port under their own power.

"They cannot sail on their own. The Russians ruined them -- even took lamps, power outlets, and toilets. We will show the whole world the Russian barbarism towards them," Voronchenko said. (RFERL : 20 November 2019) (my emphasis)"

and the facts that,

• "Russia's hybrid military forces on Sunday mounted seven attacks on Ukrainian positions in Donbas, eastern Ukraine.(UNIAN: 24 November 2019)

• Russia-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, used proscribed weapons to attack Ukrainian troops on Saturday, November 23.(UNIAN: 23 November 2019),

will Zelensky 'cave in' to Putin at the December Normandy Format meeting, as Merkel and Macron so desperately desire?

 

Merkel's and Macron's primary agenda is the lifting of EU sanctions against Putin so that German and French businessmen can, once again, suck at the teats of the Russian cow. 

Will Zelensky be able to stand up for Ukraine against Putin, Macron, and Merkel?

(to be continued)