Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

Ten day ago I wrote that,

"Ukraine's President Zelensky now faces a two-pronged threat from Putin.

There is Putin's escalating military preparedness on Ukraine's Western front.

And there is Putin's blackmailing of the EU to have Nord Stream2 finally certified for Gazprom to pump gas to the EU via Germany.

Neither Germany's Angela Merkel nor France's Emmanuel Macron will confront Putin's blackmailing tactic to get Nord Stream2 up and running.

Putin is now on the cusp of his invasion of Ukraine." (blog entry 2 Nov 2021) 

Events of the past few days are now confirming that yes, indeed, Putin has now gone beyond mere 'sabre rattling' in his goal to invade Ukraine.

Perhaps the most significant indicator that Putin is now readying himself to plunge into the abyss of all out war with Ukraine comes from the unlikely source of Lukashenko,  the current President of Belarus.

As the former US ambassador to Poland, Daniel Fried, explains,

"Lukashenko (left) is a dictator who is trying to remain in power. He's trying to intimidate Poland and Lithuania because those countries have been strongly supporting the Byelorussian democratic movement                  
.....
This is part of a pattern of Lukashenko's aggression. And behind him stands Vladimir Putin, whose also putting pressure, as we speak, also on Ukraine ... " (Youtube Video (below) : 11 November 2021)

Lukashenko himself is threatening to cut off gas supplies to the EU because of the ramping up of sanctions against himself and his cronies.

"We are heating Europe and they still threaten us with closing the border. And what if we shut off natural gas there. I would therefore recommend that the leadership of Poland, Lithuania, and the other headless  people think before speaking ..." (ibid Youtube video below)

[Now bear in mind that] Putin [already] cut off gas supplies through the Yamal pipeline to Germany, And since Sunday [October 31], Putin's gas giant has only been transporting half as much gas through Ukraine to Austria and southern Germany.as reported by James Lee (Express : 3 November 2021)

To completely shut off the Yamal pipeline, as threatened by Lukashenko, will cause even greater shortages in Germany, as well as in Austria, Lithuania, and Poland.

"Merkel and Putin spoke again on Thursday about Ukraine and Belarus, the Kremlin said in a statement. The Russian leader criticized Ukraine’s alleged use of combat drones in violation of a previous agreement and American military activity in the Black Sea, according to the statement." (Alberto Nardelli, Jennifer Jacobs and Nick Wadhams :Time : 11 November 2021) (my emhasis)

Putin, of course, realises that his Nord Stream2 'comrade-in-arms', Angela Merkel is, effectively, a spent German political force, and thus his current actions is a shot over the bow of the new incoming Chancellor of Germany.

Merkel's feeble attempts to shield her desire for Nord Sream2 to come on stream behind the refugee crisis on the Polish-Belarus border  is patently obvious when that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, exclaimed that,

"Separately, Russia's Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that dialogue was the only option to settle the [refugee] crisis.

"Belarus has already repeatedly suggested doing consultations at the border, to talk, to settle these issues based on international law," he told reporters. (DW : 10 November 2021),

This response of Lavrov mirrors Merkel's attitude towards Putin's war with Ukraine since 2014.

Given that Merkel is now a spent political force, Putin has to pay much much more attention to to what is coming from the White House. 

As reported by Haley Brown,

"The US is warning its European allies that Russia may be pondering a potential invasion of Ukraine as the Biden administration monitors a troop buildup on the frontier between the two nations, according to a new report. 

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that the US is “monitoring the region very closely” and would “continue to consult closely as well with allies and partners on this issue.”

“As we’ve made clear, any escalatory or aggressive actions would be of great concern to the United States,” said Blinken, who spoke alongside his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba.

Blinken said the US did not know Russia’s intentions but said Moscow’s “playbook” has been in the past to invent provocations along its border to justify military intervention.

“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” he said. “If there are any provocations that we’re seeing, they’re coming from Russia.” (New York Post : 11 November 2021) (my emphasis)

 

 

Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, is now suddenly denying that Putin is preparing to invade Ukraine.

As  reported by Dmitry Antonov,

"Russia on Friday dismissed as inflammatory a media report suggesting Moscow might be weighing an attack on Ukraine and accused the United States of making a series of aggressive moves in the Black Sea.
.....
The Kremlin said it was up to Moscow alone where it deployed its own forces within its own borders.
"Such headlines do nothing more than pointlessly and groundlessly fuel tensions. Russia does not pose a threat to anyone," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters on a conference call." (Reuters : 12 November 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in 2015,

"On 27 February, unidentified armed men seized the local parliament and local government buildings in Crimea, raising the Russian flag.

Among them appeared to be regular soldiers without military insignia, who were dubbed the "little green men".

Mr Putin subsequently admitted deploying troops on the peninsula to "stand behind Crimea's self-defence forces". (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)

So are we to believe Dmitry Peskov, Putin's mouthpiece, when he says that, ".... Russia does not pose a threat to anyone ..", when thousands of "little green men" are massed along the border between Ukraine and Russia?

As the old Scout Motto says, "Be Prepared".

Zelensky should "Be Prepared"

(to be continued)