Putin's sabre-rattling ...

The recent speculation about the 'missing' Putin may finally have been solved. Like the mysterious 10-day disappearance of Agatha Christie in 1926, there is still no explanation for President Putin's 10-day absence. Or so it would seem.

Putin suddenly re-appeared earlier on Monday, laughing off speculation about his health and,  as Commander In Chief of the Russian armed forces, "ordered the Russian navy's Northern Fleet on to a state of full combat readiness in the Arctic".(BBC News : 16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

As reported by Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya,

" .... the Northern Fleet was put on full alert on Monday and will range from the Arctic to the Black Sea, .... [appears] to be a show of force and defiance on the anniversary of the annexation of Crimea.

....[A] Defense Ministry official said nuclear-capable long-range bombers were being sent to the Black Sea peninsula as part of war games." (Reuters :  Tue Mar 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

And whilst Putin is sabre rattling from the Arctic to Crimea, the 'fragrant' Mogherini (left), stamping her feet, said,

"the 28-nation [EU] bloc would .... stick to its policy of not recognizing the annexation [of Ukrainian Crimea] and [continue] pursuing sanctions." (ibid Timothy Heritage and Darya Korsunskaya) (my emphasis)

Today the BBC reports that,

"Ukraine's MPs (right) have approved changes to the "special status" law for parts of rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine [Tuesday 17 March].

The law will now come into force only after local elections monitored by international observers are held in the areas according to Ukrainian law.
The amendments also envisage the pullout of "all illegal armed groups" from the Donetsk and Luhansk regions." (BBC News : 18 March 2015)

These amendments to Minsk2 are, in fact, set out in Minsk1 viz.
 
"( 9) To ensure early local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian law "On temporary Order of Local Self-Governance in Particular Districts of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts".

(10) To withdraw illegal armed groups and military equipment as well as fighters and mercenaries from Ukraine." (Wikipedia)

Why, therefore, is Putin's proxy in Donetsk threatening that,

".... the Minsk process is in fact interrupted" because Mr Poroshenko "does not respect the Donbas [Donetsk and Luhansk] people, he does not want peace"

whilst

" .... a Russian Foreign Ministry statement (in Russian) said the proposals put before Ukrainian MPs included "additional terms never previously discussed". (ibid BBC) (my emphasis)

"Additional terms never discussed"??? Really?

It beggars belief that the twelve-point protocol of Minsk1 is now totally ignored by the likes of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (above) when, in fact, Minsk2 was simply a "follow-up" memorandum that focussed on a 'ceasefire' viz.

• To pull heavy weaponry 15 kilometres (9.3 mi) back on each side of the line of contact, creating a 30-kilometre (19 mi) buffer zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone
• To set up an OSCE mission to monitor implementation of Minsk Protocol (ibid Wikipedia)

Together with Putin's sabre rattling; what this 'hissy fit' of Putin's proxy in eastern Ukraine, and his Soviet side-kick Lavrov, indicates is that far from wanting a 'ceasefire', Putin and his 'siloviki' are, in fact, setting up the stage for the Russian invasion of Mariupol.

Basking in the 'glory' of having invaded and annexed Ukrainian Crimea, Putin simply cannot afford to give even the slightest hint of acquiescing to the Minsk2 'ceasefire' protocols.

Poroshenko (left) is well aware of this 'maskirovka' tactic of Putin. 

"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working." (Reuters: Sun Mar 15, 2015)

 It is possibly with this in mind that,

"[US] Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter (right) told lawmakers that he is “very much inclined” to arm Ukrainian fighters. “I think we need to support the Ukrainians in defending themselves.” (John O'Donnell : Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

However, as in the case of pro-Putin EU leaders dithering over extending and/or increasing sanctions against Putin, so too is Obama about sending arms to Ukraine. This dithering of Obama is best summed up in the words of  Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges (left), the top US Army commander in Europe viz.

"“There are valid arguments to be made” for arming Ukraine, Hodges said, citing Frederick the Great’s maxim that diplomacy without weapons is like an orchestra without instruments. “But saying it’s a valid argument is different from saying this should be policy.” (ibid John O'Donnell) (my emphasis)

Yet what, more than anything else, these differences between Western leaders and Putin exemplifies is the difference between 'democratic' political systems and the 'totalitarian Fascistic' political system that Putin sits atop. 

Illustrative of these critical differences is a report by Michael Birnbaum who inform us that,

"As Washington debates whether to send lethal weaponry to the Ukrainian army, one of the Kremlin’s biggest critics, Alexei Navalny (right), says it would be a mistake.

His opposition to the U.S. proposal, expressed in a wide-ranging interview in his spartan Moscow office, highlights a dilemma for the small fraction of Russians who still sympathize with the United States after a wave of anti-Americanism. They face new dangers after the Feb. 27 assassination of Boris Nemtsov, who along with Navalny was one of the most charismatic leaders of the movement. " (Washington Post : March 17, 2015)

The Ukrainian people aspire to set up in their own country the freedoms and the politically independent Rule of Law that we in the West take so much for granted. The fears of Alexei Navalny is what Putin has set up in Ukrainian Crimea, and who wishes also to import these fears into eastern Ukraine.

(to be continued)