Putin and his weapon of 'fear' against Ukraine and the Russian opposition

As reported this morning by Carol Morello (left) of the Washington Post, John Kerry, US Secretary of State, and Sergei Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool-Soviet foreign minister of Putin, are meeting in Geneva to discuss the Ukrainian crisis, amongst other topics.

As she says,

"Last week, Kerry accused officials in Moscow of lying “to my face” about the conflict raging in Ukraine between Russian-backed rebels and government troops. There was no warmth in the room when the two diplomats first met and shook hands. Neither smiled as they greeted each other, though Lavrov smiled briefly after the cameras were turned off." (Washington Post : March 2, 2015) (my emphasis)

And following on from Putin's warning last week about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine;

"The European Commission has invited the Russian and Ukrainian energy ministers for talks in Brussels [today] to discuss gas supply problems." (Reuters (as reported in Yahoo News) : 2nd March, 2015)

Pavel Polityuk (left) reports, however, that,

"Ukraine's state energy firm Naftogaz once again charged Russian gas giant Gazprom with violating the terms of an EU-backed winter gas supply agreement, Ukrainian company said on Monday [2nd March]." (Reuters as reported in the Daily Mail : 2 March 2015) (my emphasis)

"In February, the agreement was violated by the Russian side. Gas for which we have paid in advance was not delivered in full last month. The deal is continuing to be violated this month," Naftogaz quoted its chief executive Andriy Kobolev (right) as saying." (ibid Pavel Polityuk) (my emphasis)

 As Valentyn Zemlyansky has explained,

 "All these threats by ... [Putin about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine] are not particularly frightening for us, as the situation has radically changed compared to last autumn," said Zemlyansky, [former spokesman for Ukraine's gas firm Naftogaz]. "We've passed through the winter season - the mild weather really helped us, as well as decreased consumption by industry."

He estimated Ukraine would consume about 35 billion cubic meters of gas in 2015. That is not far out of line with what it produces itself and imports from Europe, although it will be important to build up reserves for next winter's peak." (Peter Graff and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : Thu Feb 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

With this in mind, it begins to appear as though Putin's threat about cutting off gas supplies to Ukraine is nothing more nor less than his attempt to increase the dire economic difficulties in which Ukraine finds itself in. Just as the Soviet Union was bankrupted when trying to counter Ronald Reagan's Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI) ('Star Wars'), so too is Putin trying to push Ukraine into bankruptcy by using his "gas supply weapon" and by keeping the war in eastern Ukraine going.

 
As the late Ronald Hilton (left) pointed out,

" .... in its efforts to keep up with the American defense build-up [in the eighties], the Soviet Union was compelled in the first half of the 1980s to raise the share of its defense spending from 22 percent to 27 percent of GDP, while it froze the production of civilian goods at 1980 levels."


This 'economic' dimension of Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy viz. to try and push Ukraine over the economic cliff into bankruptcy, is another critical factor in the continual breaking of the Minsk2 ceasefire by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As Gleb Garanich reports, 
 

"In order to mislead OSCE representatives, the rebels are moving military equipment from the front line ... and bringing it back at night," military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (right) said.
"There are signs the enemy is preparing for further offensives," he said, naming as major targets government-held Mariupol, a strategic port city, and Artemivsk, north of the rebel stronghold of Donetsk.
While there was no shelling in the night, rebels shelled government troop positions 34 times on Saturday, wounding eight Ukrainian soldiers, Lysenko said." (Reuters : Sun Mar 1) (my emphasis)



Even the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Ilkka Kanerva, admits to the refusal of Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers to allow the OSCE monitors to fully monitor their 'withdrawal' of heavy weaponry according to Minsk 2 proposals.


 As RFE/RL reports,

" .... the head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, Ilkka Kanerva (left) said the separatists continued to impose restrictions on the monitors' movements.
Kanerva said in a statement that he was "profoundly disturbed" by the rebels' "continuing refusal to grant unlimited, safe access to OSCE monitors on the ground in Ukraine and their violations of the Minsk Package of Measures." (VoA : February 25, 201)(my emphasis)

Perhaps most indicative of Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers preparing for further offensives against Mariupol and Artemivsk is the fact that Kanerva has informed us that,

" ..... [the] rejection by Russia of an enlarged monitoring mission on Ukrainian-Russian border runs counter to international community's efforts." (Ukraine Today : Feb. 26, 2015) (my emphasis)

Putin threatening to 'turn off the gas taps' to Ukraine and, by implication, the EU, together with the brutal assasination of Boris Nemtsov a few hundred metres from the Kremlin, are both indications that he is ratcheting up the weapon of 'fear' in his armoury.

It is therefore no coincidence that,

"The night following the murder of Nemtsov, his papers, writings and computer hard drives were confiscated in a search performed by police in his flat on Malaya Ordynka street." (Wikipedia)(my emphasis)

What is Putin trying to conceal from the Russian public and the world?

However, the international community is now well aware that Nemtsov was gathering incontrovertible evidence about Putin's central role in arming his proxies in eastern Ukraine, as well as supporting them with thousands of Russian soldiers that are fighting and dying alongside them.

And finally John Kerry, US Secretary of State has publicly called Putin and his kleptocratic clique  'liars', no doubt to the utter astonishment of Lavrov and, perhaps, even Putin himself.

We now wait to see how those ardent supporters of Putin within the EU will respond to these events of the last few days.

As the late Harold Wilson once said at a party conference in 1960,

"Forty-eight hours is a long time in politics".

(to be continued)