Putin's 'stealth strategy' and his 'siloviki' group

Since the start of the Minsk2 'ceasefire', 'military eyes' on BOTH sides of this war have been focussed on the town of Mariupol. On the one hand the Ukrainian forces are digging in to defend this town whilst, on the other hand, Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers are stealthily preparing a plan of attack on Mariupol.

Thus, ten hours ago (current GMT: 7.30 am) Lesley Wroughton of  Reuters reports that,

"Russian tanks and heavy military equipment have crossed the Ukrainian border in the last few days in breach of a European-brokered ceasefire agreed on Feb. 12, a senior U.S. State Department official [Victoria Nuland (right)] said on Tuesday." ( Reuters, reported in Yahoo News : 10 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) are reporting that,

"The SMM was stopped at a “DPR” [rebel/Russian] checkpoint located 1.2km north of the village of Komsomolske. The [rebel/Russian]“DPR” personnel informed the SMM that the SMM was not allowed to visit the area and that access to the village was denied. The SMM asked further about its freedom of movement to monitor [rebel/Russian] “DPR”-controlled areas of the Donetsk region, but [rebel/Russian]“DPR” personnel informed that authorization from the [rebel/Russian] “DPR” “MoD” was needed to allow the patrol to proceed. The “DPR” member said because of the presence of [rebel/Russian] “DPR” military, access to the area was restricted." (OSCE : 10 March 2015) (my emphasis)

The fact that more Russian troops and military equipment are flooding across the Ukrainian-Russian border, and Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers are preventing the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) from fully observing the heavy military equipment withdrawal as specified in the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement, signifies that Putin and his 'siloviki' are,

"setting themselves up to 'stealthily absorb' the rebel/Russian held territory of eastern Ukraine into Russia by extending the Russian 'military' frontier to the military line between the Ukrainian and rebel/Russian-held territory in eastern Ukraine, and flooding this area with Russian soldiers and military equipment"

It has to be asked whether Putin's many supporters in the EU are simply blind to this rather obvious military strategy of Putin to ultimately create an "Abkhazia and South Ossetia" in the rebel/Russian controlled region of eastern Ukraine.

The 'fragrant' Mogherini, Putin's cheerleader in the EU, at a press conference with the Finnish Prime Minister, continues to sing the Putin mantra that,

" ..... the European Union (EU) has no other choice to ease the conflicts in Ukraine than diplomacy, economic sanctions and the role of Organization of Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE)." (Global Times : Xinhua | March 06, 2015)

whilst the US, Britain, NATO, and many other voices in the EU, are calling for "lethal weapons of defence" to be supplied to Ukraine, to counter the continuous flood of weapons emanating from Putin's Russia into eastern Ukraine.

As expressed by Principal Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Brian P. McKeon, (right)

"The department does not believe there is a military solution to the conflict in Ukraine and is working actively to support diplomatic efforts, McKeon said. However, he added, “we are looking at all our options, including the possibility of lethal defensive weapons.” Russian aggression in Ukraine is a threat to a free, whole and peaceful Europe, he said." (U.S. Dept. of Defence : WASHINGTON, March 10, 2015) (my emphasis)

 But most frightening of all, the Merkel's, Hollande's, and the 'fragrant' Moghrini's of the EU, do not seem to be aware that whereas Putin had his 'money' oligarchs as his close 'advisors' before, things have rather changed somewhat.

As already reported in January of this year by Henry Meyer and Irina Reznik,

"Businessmen who have long been close to Putin are “on the periphery now,” said Sergei Markov, a political consultant who helped monitor the referendum in Crimea that led to Russia’s annexation of the peninsula in March.



The core group around Putin is led by Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev, Federal Security Service head Alexander Bortnikov, Foreign Intelligence Service chief Mikhail Fradkov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, according to Markov."(Bloomberg Business : 2015-01-22)

This group also includes,Vladimir Kolokoltsev, head of the powerful Interior Ministry.   

Putin's core 'siloviki' group who are currently shaping the Kremlin's foreign policy.

          Fradkov                     Shoigu                    Patruschev                   Kolokoltsev                   Bortnikov

Fred Weir (right) recently reported that,

"The role of what we call the defense-industrial complex is rising rapidly in Russian society," says Alexander Golts, an independent military expert. "It's not just the armed forces, but also the [80,000-strong] interior troops, the Federal Security Service [FSB], police, and other security organizations. The key narrative of the siloviki, that Russia is surrounded by enemies and must defend itself from external aggression and internal subversion, has become the main theme on nightly TV broadcasts." (Business Insider : Feb. 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

This being the case, of what value will sanctioning by the EU of yet more of Putin's 'money oligarchs' have on the collective mind-set of the current 'siloviki' that now surrounds him? What effect, if any, will it have on the 'stealth strategy' of Putin to turn eastern Ukraine into yet another "Abkhazia and South Ossetia"?

(to be continued)