Is Putin 'falling from grace'?

There is strange series of events that have occurred over the last few days that has muddied the waters over the direction being taken by the current 'ceasefire' in Ukraine. Foremost amongst these is the categoric call by Angela Merkel (left),

" .... to endorse a declaration saying that EU sanctions on Russia will not be eased unless Moscow complies with a Ukraine ceasefire deal, two officials said on Saturday." (Reuters : Sun Mar 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

This declaration,

" ...would effectively extend the sanctions, which expire in July, to the end of the year, as the ceasefire deal requires the restoration of Ukrainian border controls with Russia by year-end." (ibid Reuters) (my emphasis)

However, as reported by RFERL,

"Some diplomats said key EU member Germany favors prolongation but has concerns it could prompt Russia to renege on implementation." (RFERL : Sunday, March 15, 2015) (my emphasis)

To extend the current sanctions to the end of this year requires unanimity amongst EU member states.

But,

"While Britain, Poland and the Baltic states are taking a tough line, many other EU members, including Italy, Austria and Cyprus, are skeptical about sanctions." (Daily Sabah : March 9, 2015)

A further complication are the many rumours that are now circulating about Putin. 

Adam Withnall reports that,

"Russian officials have denied reports that Vladimir Putin has fallen ill after the cancellation of two state events, but admitted the president’s schedule due to the Ukraine crisis was “very intensive”.

Representatives from both countries confirmed that Mr Putin had postponed a visit to Kazakhstan, and a Kazakh government official told the Reuters news agency: “It looks like he has fallen ill.”(The Independent : Sunday 15 March 2015)

Even CNN is speculating that it may, indeed, be the case that Putin is not in the best of health. (video below)

Furthermore, Will Stewart for MailOnline reports that,

"Vladimir Putin is 'alive' but 'neutralised' as shadowy security chiefs stage a stealthy coup in Moscow, it was claimed last night" (MailOnline : 15 March 2015) (my emphasis)

He further reports that,

" 'My information is that Patrushev (left) met Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov in Pyatigorsk on March 11 and tempted him over to his side'. 
He also pointed to a recent visit by Patrushev - head of Putin's security council- [to] the US.
The visit came despite sanctions barring visits by most senior Russian officials. 

'I think he was offered something there that he failed to reject,' said Dzhemal on Georgian TV channel Rustavi-2. " (my emphasis)

Interestingly, Aliaksandr Kudrytski also reports that,


"Representatives of Ukraine, Russia and the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe held a “constructive” video conference on March 13 following last month’s truce agreement, Denis Pushilin, the chief negotiator from the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic, said on DPR’s website Saturday.

“This gives us hope that the peace process will continue,” he said, urging all involved in the conflict to do “everything in their power” to ensure the truce holds. (Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015)

It would thus seem that Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine have had their wings 'clipped'. Could it indeed be that Putin's 'siloviki' are demanding that Russian soldiers be withdrawn from the conflict zone as per the Minsk2 agreements?

Are they also concerned about the imminent publication of the late Boris Nemtsov's (right) dossier on the number of body bags of Russian soldiers that have come from eastern Ukraine, thus giving the lie to the Putin mantra that 'there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine'?

It now emerges that,

"A report on Russia's role in the Ukraine conflict - compiled by the murdered Russian opposition politician, Boris Nemtsov - will be released in April, his colleague has told the BBC. Ilya Yashin said most of the material gathered by Mr Nemtsov had been retrieved, despite police searches of his apartment and offices." (BBC News : 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

    

Adding grist to this rumour mill about Putin's possible 'fall from grace' is the fact that,


" ... Chinese Premier Li Keqiang (left) said on Sunday that his government respected the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, but would not be drawn on whether China considers Crimea to be Ukraine's or Russia's.

"On the issue of Ukraine, China has adopted an objective and just position. We respect Ukraine's independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity," Li told a news conference at the end of the annual meeting of parliament, adding that he had recently told this to Ukraine's president." (Yahoo (as reported by Reuters): 15 March 2015)

This public announcement by Premier Li Keqiang has been made during the current Chinese National People's Congress, and therefore gives added weight to his statement about Ukraine's 'sovereignty and territorial integrity'. 

Finally, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Chief, told Sky News that,

"NATO can not guarantee Ukraine's security in the face of Russian aggression, but a policy of deterrence is working, the alliance's Secretary General has said." (SkyNews: Saturday 14 March 2015) (my emphasis)

Could it be that this also has somewhat focussed the minds of the 'siloviki' who now surround Putin?
 

      Fradkov          Shoigu           Patruschev        Kolokoltsev         Bortnikov

(to be continued)