Will the EU maintain the pressure of sanctions on Putin?

On Thursday 31 July 2014, Margareta Pagano reported that,

"Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over Ukraine." (The Independent : Thursday 31 July 2014) (my emphasis)

 Controversially, this plan depended on,

"the international community .... [accepting].... to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach." (ibid Margareta Pagano) (my emphasis)

However, we learn that yesterday,

"Germany's goal remains to restore the Crimean Peninsula to Ukraine, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on March 16, a year after Crimea's annexation by Russian forces." (AP (as quoted in Yahoo News) : 16 March 2015)

Darya Korsunskaya (left) reports, however, that,
 
"Russia said on Tuesday it would not hand back Crimea to Ukraine, despite warnings by the United States and European Union that they will not drop sanctions over the Black Sea peninsula's annexation a year ago." (Reuters : Mar. 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, State spokesman Jen Psaki (right) said that,

“We reaffirm that sanctions related to Crimea will remain in place as long as the occupation continues,” she said. “The United States continues to support Ukraine’s sovereignty, territorial integrity, and right to self-determination.” (Kenneth Rapoza : Forbes :  16 March 2015) (my emphasis)

This reaffirmation by Jen Psaki that US sanctions against Russia will remain in place, as long as Russia continues to occupy Ukrainian Crimea, must be worrisome for those EU leaders hoping to use the rather tenuous holding of the current 'ceasefire' between Russia and Ukraine as a plank from which to launch a possible lessening of EU sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Adrian Croft,

"European Union leaders are unlikely to reach agreement at their summit  [this coming Thursday and Friday] to prolong economic sanctions on Russia that expire in July, a senior EU official said [last] Friday." ( Reuters :Fri Mar 13, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Donald Tusk, current European Council President is however pressing,

" ... EU leaders to pledge this week to keep sanctions on Russia until a Ukraine ceasefire deal is fully in place, effectively extending sanctions until at least the end of the year.
Europe must maintain pressure on Russia with sanctions until Ukraine has full control of its borders, Tusk (right)  said in an interview with several newspapers published on Monday." (Reuters : Mon Mar 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

The attitude of Ireland's PM, Enda Kenny (left), best sums up this impending conflict between EU leaders at their upcoming summit this week on maintaining sanctions against Putin's Russia.

As reported by Brian O'Connell,

"Although Ireland says that the EU should respond with one voice, its stance locates it alongside Denmark and the Benelux countries, midway between the more hawkish stance of Poland, the Baltic countries, and the United Kingdom and the more cautious position of countries like Greece, Cyprus, and Italy" (European Council on Foreign Relations : 16th March, 2015)

Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki' may be rubbing their hands together with glee at the prospect of a possible deep rift occurring within the EU at their upcoming summit over sanctions against Russia. Putin and his 'siloviki' should not, however,  'count their chickens before they have hatched'.

The pro-Putin EU leaders will find it very difficult to stand up against Angela Merkel since they have openly given her the lead in dealing with Putin over the Ukrainian issue. 

Furthermore, their hands are tied given the fact Merkel has already stated that,

"..... if necessary, the European Union was prepared to bring more sanctions against Russia for its actions in Ukraine.

"We don't want them. But if there's no other way, then they need to be implemented," she said." (ibid AP) (my emphasis)

The Russian economy is not simply 'tanking', it is taking a dive into a deep recession due to sanctions, the fall in the price of oil, and the arrival of Spring.

"Russia’s ailing economy, hurt by the ruble’s decline and falling oil prices, has rattled consumers and businesses, including in the once booming city of Kaluga." (#fnews : Monday, March 16th)

Even more ominous,

"The Bank of Russia is considering halting currency trade if the ruble shows excessive volatility, the central bank's first deputy chairman said Monday.
Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of a financial conference, Dmitry Tulin said the central bank would like to avoid a situation when strong ruble fluctuations are driven by very low trading volumes." (Dow Jones Business News : March 16, 2015)

And now Russian householders are being hit by an increase in property taxes, as reported by Diana Kulchitskaya. (left)

"The new legislation will have a huge effect on the owners of residential real estate — they will have to pay a significant amount of money in comparison to past years," said Mark Rovinsky, deputy head of the taxation department at law firm Egorov, Puginsky, Afanasiyev and partners." (Moscow Times : May. 12 2014) (my emphasis)

 If the EU leaders do not unanimously agree to continue with their sanctions against Putin's Russia at their upcoming summit this week then Obama may have no choice but to give in to those in the US Senators and the Congressmen who are besieging him to supply Ukraine with lethal weaponry as a defence against Putin's continuing buildup of Russian soldiers and armamments in eastern Ukraine.

As Poroshenko (right) is warning,

“The process which began a month ago in Minsk should by no means create any illusion that the threat has diminished or retreated,” he told a government meeting on Saturday, according to a statement posted on his website.
Ukraine will improve its fortifications and create a deep line of defense “lest we want to welcome the enemy in our cities,” Poroshenko said." (Aliaksandr Kudrytski : Bloomberg Business : March 14, 2015) (my emphasis) 

 (to be continued)