Putin's looming offensive against Mariupol

In July, 2014, just after the downing of flight MH17 by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board, Matt Chorley reported that,
 
"Vladimir Putin has been branded a ‘thug’ and a ‘liar’ by one of Britain’s top diplomats as the European Union turned the screw on Russia's banks, arms traders and energy firms.

Sir Peter Westmacott, (left) the UK ambassador to the US, said Moscow’s aggression in Ukraine was starting to look like ‘the wrong call’ and the West’s firm response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines plane was starting to have an impact." (Mail Online : 29 July 2014) (my emphasis)

And then earlier this month Putin himself admits that he is, indeed, a liar. His invasion and annexing of Ukrainian Crimea was planned months ahead before it actually happened, thus giving the lie to his constant mantra that he invaded Ukrainian Crimea to 'protect' Russian speaking Crimeans.

Putin, however, is not the only one who is 'economical with the truth'. OSCE monitors are, as I write, being denied access to border crossings controlled by Putin's Generals, his proxy rebels, and his soldiers in eastern Ukraine. As reported by BBC News,

"Kiev accuses Moscow of continuing to supply rebels with weapons and says that control of the border is crucial for success of the truce" ( BBC News : 29 March 2015) (my emphasis)

What is more disconcerting is that in his first foreign policy speech in a month, Putin stated that,

" ...... “the West” is encroaching on Russia and fomenting internal unrest, in his first foreign policy speech in a month.
He told a meeting of his internal intelligence service, the FSB, on Thursday (26 March), that “they are using their entire arsenal of means for the so-called deterrence of Russia: from attempts at political isolation and economic pressure, to large-scale information war and special services operations”. (Andrew Rettman : EU Observer : Brussels, 27. March, 2015) (my emphasis)

That this speech was given to his internal intelligence service, the FSB,  should give us pause for concern.

Andrew Rettman further reports that,

“Moscow is preparing the world for another offensive. The objectives are straightforward - to justify the offensive and to blame Ukraine for violating Minsk 2”, Roman Sohn, a Ukrainian activist, told EUobserver." (my emphasis)

The former US ambassador to Ukraine, Steven Pifer, (left) noted in an op-ed in Ukrainian media last week that: “Mariupol would be an important step to make a frozen separatist-occupied Donbas [in east Ukraine] economically viable”.(my emphasis)

The people of Mariupol are preparing themselves for the looming invasion of Putin's forces against this city.

As reported by the OSCE, the Minsk2 'ceasefire' is been broken by both the Ukrainian army and Putin's rebels and Russian soldiers.

"On 27 March, the SMM observed from an observation point in the vicinity of Berdianske (government-controlled, 18km east of Mariupol) escalating fighting in Shyrokyne (“Donetsk People’s Republic” (“DPR”)-controlled, 20km east of Mariupol, 102 km south of Donetsk) counting over 225 mortar shells from 14:40hrs to 17:15hrs. The shelling had started only a few hours following an SMM visit to the “DPR” “command” in Shyrokyne.

From its position the SMM estimated that the shells were fired from a position of the Ukrainian Armed Forces located in Berdianske. The SMM assessed that the majority of these outgoing shells impacted on the southern part of the Shyrokyne village, controlled by “DPR”. About 20 mortar shells were observed to have been fired back from the area controlled by “DPR”.

Is it any wonder that the citizens of Mariupol are now on tenterhooks?

As noted by Andrew Rettman,

"Russian leader Vladimir Putin has said “the West” is encroaching on Russia and fomenting internal unrest, in his first foreign policy speech in a month.
...............................
“The situation … will not change for the better if we succumb and yield at every step. It will only change for the better if we become stronger”, he added." (my emphasis)

Putin needs a war to deflect the gaze of the Russian people away from the accelerating economic deprivations that they are suffering from because of the falling price of oil, the depreciated rouble, and Western sanctions.

The EU leaders will be meeting on the 27th April to discuss further aid to Ukraine. Will Putin dare to invade Mariupol before then?

(to be continued)