Is Putin beginning to stare into the abyss of his dénouement?

A week ago today, on 24th August, Ukraine celebrated its Independence Day.

To the consternation of Putin, General Mattis, US Defence Secretary, attended these celebrations and, more significantly, in a press conference with Ukrainian President Poroshenko, stated that,

"Despite Russia's denials, we know they [Putin] are seeking to redraw international borders by force, undermining the sovereign and free nations of Europe," Mattis told reporters, alongside Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
...
"On the defensive lethal weapons, we are actively reviewing it, I will go back now having seen the current situation and be able to inform the secretary of state and the president in very specific terms what I recommend for the direction ahead," Mattis said.

"Defensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening," Mattis said."

(Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017) (my emphasis)

What must have also stuck in Putin's craw is the fact that the Independence Day Military Parade in Kiev included soldiers from NATO countries supporting Ukraine in its war with Putin.

Meanwhile, 3 days ago,

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday called for Russia and Ukraine to increase their efforts to implement a fragile ceasefire agreement in eastern Ukraine. " (Michael Nienaber : Reuters : August 28, 2017) (my emphasis)

Merkel and Macron further stated that,

"We urge President Putin and President Poroshenko to fully respect their commitments, to support the ceasefire in a public and clear manner, and to ensure that appropriate instructions have been sent to the military and local forces,” they said in a joint statement issued by the chancellery in Berlin." (ibid Michael Nienaber)

Neither Merkel nor Macron are willing to explicitly condemn Putin and his Russian soldiers and proxies as the instigators for the failure of the 'ceasefire' in the Donbas.

In similar vein, Trump failed to explicitly condemn the Klu Klux Klan and White Supremacy groups for the death of Heather Heyer (right) during the Charlotsville demonstration.

As reported by Joanna Walters (left),

"Politicians from all sides have rounded on Donald Trump for failing explicitly to condemn white supremacy groups or use the term domestic terrorism after a woman [Heather Heyer] was killed [by a White Supremicist] when [he smashed his] car ... into anti-racism protesters at the weekend. 

On Saturday the president condemned hatred and violence “on many sides” in his remarks, but did not directly single out the white supremacists ..." (The Guardian : Monday 14 August 2017)

Why this reluctance on the part of Merkel and Macron to explicitly condemn Putin and his Russian soldiers and proxies as the instigators of the the 'ceasefire' failure in the Donbas, and why the reluctance of Trump to utter even one word of condemnation against Putin since he entered the US presidential race?

Could it be that in the case of Merkel and Macron, the new US sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki',

" ...  would almost surely affect a controversial pipeline project between Russia and Germany known as Nord Stream 2, which is owned by Gazprom but includes financial stakes from European companies.."
...
[The] new sanctions have important implications for Europe because they target any company that contributes to the development, maintenance or modernization of Russia’s energy export pipelines." ( Steven Erlanger and Neil MacFarquhar : New York Times : July 25, 2017)
 
And in the case of Donald Trump, it now emerges that during the US presidential elections in 2016,

"... [Trump's] company was pursuing a plan to develop a massive Trump Tower in Moscow, according to several people familiar with the proposal and new records reviewed by Trump Organization lawyers." (Carol D. Leonnig, Tom Hamburger and Rosalind S. Helderman : Washington Post : August 27, 2017) (my emphasis)
 

(Maddow video report)

 

Given that,

•  the new US sanctions will directly target any company that contributes to the development, maintenance or modernization of Russia’s energy export pipelines, 
• the Trump presidency is beginning to sink as the mounting evidence of the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US presidential race continues to grow, 

what other avenue does Putin have for expressing his anger at these developments except to keep his war in the Donbas alive by allowing his Russian soldiers and proxies to continuosly break the fragile ceasefire arrangements?

Is Putin beginning to stare into the abyss of his dénouement?

(to be continued)

There is very little that Putin can now do to save the Trump presidency.

On 3rd August I queried,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

Could it just be [because of some of the contents of] that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?" (blog entry 3/08/2017)

It now transpires, as reported by Josh Dawsey and Elana Schor that,

 "President Donald Trump privately vented his frustration over Russia-related matters with at least two other Republican senators this month, according to people familiar with the conversations — in addition to the president's public admonishments of Mitch McConnell, John McCain and Jeff Flake.
.......
"Trump ... complained about the Russian sanctions measure in a call with McConnell earlier this month that devolved into shouting. The New York Times first reported that Trump discussed the Russia probe with McConnell.

"It seems he is just always focused on Russia," one senior GOP aide said." (Politico :23/08/2017) (my emphasis)

Let us remind  ourselves that the US sanctions against Putin stem from his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea in 2014 in the aftermath of the 2014 Maidan revolution, and his subsequent ongoing war in the Donbas with Ukraine, which was then followed by yet more US sanctions against Putin for his meddling in the 2016 US presidential elections, which ultimately led to Trump now occupying the Oval Office. 

Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin also report that,

"...[Senator] Mr. McConnell (right) has privately expressed uncertainty that Mr. Trump will be able to salvage his administration after a series of summer crises." (New York Times : Aug. 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

And now, Trump's 'summer crises' has just taken another turn for the worse, to the consternation, no doubt, of Putin himself.

It has now been reported that,

"Glenn Simpson (left), the former journalist who helped compile the Russia dossier with allegations of collusion by President Donald Trump's top aides, spoke with staff on the Senate Judiciary Committee Tuesday for more than 10 hours." (Tom LoBianco and Ted Barrett :CNN : August 23, 2017) (my emphasis)

(A more detailed video report by Rachel Maddow)

The truths contained in this dossier are now bubbling to the surface, and it is not only Trump who is being consumed with the Mueller probe into the collusion between himself, his pre- and post-election acolytes, and Putin.

Even Jared Kushner, his son-in-law and one of his chief White House advisors, is also beginning to feel the heat of the Mueller investigation.

The fact that Trump now stands at the precipice of impeachment cannot be re-assuring for Putin. 

What is most disturbing for Putin is the fact that the new US sanctions that Trump has been forced to sign into law,

" .... would almost surely affect a controversial pipeline project between Russia and Germany known as Nord Stream 2, which is owned by Gazprom but includes financial stakes from European companies." ( Steven Erlanger and Neil MacFarquhar : New York Times : July 25, 2017)

Could it be that the effect of the new US sanctions against Putin will directly affect the completion of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline between Russia and Germany?

Could this also be the reason why Trump is so vexed about about the current US sanctions against Putin? Why he has had a 'shouting match' with Republican Senate leader, Senator Mitch McConnell, over those new US sanctions against Putin?

There is very little that Putin can now do to save the Trump presidency.

And as the truths contained in the Steel dossier now begin to take centre-stage in the Senate Judiciary Committee's investigation into the Putin-Trump connection during the 2016 US presidential elections, Trump's fear of Putin will only increase.

The question still remains,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

 

The scarlet thread of Maidan continues to wind itself tightly around both Putin and Trump.

(to be continued)

How long can Trump now last as his White House Senior advisors are being reduced to his immediate family?

The late Harold Wilson (left) is rumoured to have said that, "A week is a long time in politics". (Wikipedia)

In the aftermath of the death of  Heather Heyer, a 32-year-old legal assistant with a law firm in Virginia, at the Charlottsville White Nationalist rally on the 12th August, Donald Trump drew gasps of unbelief by many of his unpresidential remarks about the events of that day, that flew very close to exonerating the Nazi sympathiser who killed Heather Heyer. 

As AJ Willingham wrote,

"Facing criticism over the vague wording of his initial response [to the death of Heather Heyer], Trump released a second statement on Monday that divided his white nationalist supporters. Some heard the diluted words of a man forced to bow to media pressure, while others found winking encouragement in between the lines."(CNN: August 15, 2017) (my emphasis)

In the wake of his un-presidential remarks, the White House now seems close to total meltdown, to the utter consternation of Vladimir Putin, whose endeavours to keep Trump in power continues to this very day.

As reported by Rachel Maddow (complete video) of MSNBC,

"The Russian Military Intelligence Unit that carried out the DNC hack... nicknamed 'Fancy Bear' ... And they're apparently still working now  ... this summer ... still against us ... the American public ... Still on behalf of Donald Trump ..."

 
Now, however, the FBI has, as Rachel Maddow also reports,

" ... it's first human witness for the Russian side of the Russian attack on the election. It's a Ukrainian hacker ... [ online alias "Profexer" ] ...  (Full article:  Andrew E. Kramer and Andrew Higgins : New York Times : Aug. 16, 2017)

Since the beginning of the Trump presidential campaign in 2016, he collected around himself a motley crew of Russian sympathisers as his Foreign Policy unit.

Some of these, like Paul Manafort and Carter Page, are now under investigation as possible conduits for Putin in helping Trump win the 2016 US Presidential elections.

Rex Tillerson, appointed after Trump's election success, still remains in office as the US 

Secretary.

And yesterday we learnt that the man credited with winning the US Presidential election for Trump, Steve Bannon, Trump's Chief Strategist, has been removed from the White House and, as  Harriet Alexander, David Millward and Barney Henderson report,

"A defiant Steve Bannon declared the Trump presidency he had campaigned for was over as he vowed to carry on the fight after being ousted as the White House chief strategist.

..... 
In interviews he made it clear he was not going quietly as he rounded on those he held responsible for his departure." (Telegraph : 19 August 2017) (my emphasis)

As the late Harold Wilson said,

"A week is a long time in politics."

Let us also not forget that the Mueller investigation into Putin's meddling in the 2016 US Presidential election continues to solidly plod along.

So the $64 question is,

"How long can Trump now last as his White House Senior advisors are being reduced to his immediate family?"

(to be continued)

Paul Manafort and Putin now hold the destiny of Trump in their hands.

In July of 2016, Steven Lee Myers and Andrew E. Kramer wrote an article detailing the power that Paul Manafort wielded in Ukraine before becoming Donald Trump's Campaign Manager during the 2016 US presidential elections.

"President Viktor F. Yanukovych, who owed his election to, as an American diplomat put it, an “extreme makeover” Mr. Manafort oversaw, bolted the country in the face of violent street protests. He found sanctuary in Russia and never returned, as his patron, President Vladimir V. Putin, proceeded to dismember Ukraine, annexing Crimea and fomenting a war in two other provinces that continues.

Mr. Manafort was undaunted.

Within months of his client’s political demise, he went to work seeking to bring his disgraced party back to power, much as he had Mr. Yanukovych himself nearly a decade earlier. Mr. Manafort has already had some success, with former Yanukovych loyalists — and some Communists — forming a new bloc opposing Ukraine’s struggling pro-Western government." (New York Times : July 31, 2016) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Stephanie Baker and Daryna Krasnolutska, (right: Stephanie and Daryna) 

"In the decade before he worked for Trump, Manafort’s efforts did for Moscow what its finest political minds had failed to do: help get a pro-Russian candidate installed in Kiev.

.....

In the five-year period from 2007 to 2012, Manafort was paid at least $12.7 million, according to a handwritten Party of Regions ledger found later in its head office. (Bloomberg : May 22, 2017) (my emphasis)

Fast forward to July of 2017 and we learn that,

"The FBI raided the home of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort in July [2017] and seized documents and other materials as part of the probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 election, his spokesman told the Associated Press." (Mark Moore : New York Post : August 9, 2017) (my emphasis)

This FBI raid on the house of Paul Manafort will further reveal the nature of the finacial largesse that Manafort received from Yanukovych during the period 2007-2012.

What it may also reveal is the fact that it may, indeed, have been Putin who was Manafort's 'paymaster' rather than the Yanukovych Party of Regions.

The reaction of Donald Trump to this raid on Manafort's home is also rather interesting.

Responding to a reporter question about this raid, Trump responded that,

"I thought it was a ...very ... very strong signal ... or whatever .."

Further on in this interview, Trump made a rather interesting 'slip of the tongue' by stating that,

" ... There was no collusion between us and Russia [during the 2016 US presidential campaign] ... In fact ... the opposite .. Russia spent a lot of money on fighting me ... Russia spent a lot of money on that false report ..."

The report that Trump is here referring to is the Steele report, and it has now been revealed by Julian Borger that,

"Two US congressional staffers who travelled to London in July and tried to contact former British intelligence officer Christopher Steele were sent by a longstanding aide to Devin Nunes, the chairman of the House intelligence committee and a close ally of the White House.

The trip has brought back to the surface a continuing struggle for control of the committee’s investigation into Moscow’s role in the 2016 US election. The reliability of a dossier compiled by Steele, containing explosive allegations of extensive secret collusion between Trump and the Kremlin, is a key part of that investigation." (The Guardian : Tuesday 8 August 2017) (my emphasis)

That Trump is now asserting that,

".... Russia spent a lot of money on that false report ..."

could signify that much of the salacious details about Trump when he visited Russia could contain more than a grain of truth.

Let us remind ourselves that Putin was made Head of the FSB under Boris Yeltsin, and used FSB methods to get rid of the Federal Prosecutor, Yuri Skuratov, who was investigating corruption in the Kremlin, that implicated Boris Yeltsin himself.

Shortly after managing to rid the Kremlin of Skuratov, Putin was made Prime Minister of Russia by Boris Yeltsin. And has been in power ever since.

Now we have Trump worrying about "the details in the Steele dossier that Putin allegedly spent a lot of money on", and Paul Manafort staring into the prison cell that he may soon occupy.

Paul Manafort and Putin now hold the destiny of Trump in their hands.

(to be continued)

Why is Trump so fearful of Putin? Could it just be that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?

The new US sanctions against Putin for his interference in the 2016 US presidential elections has, very reluctantly, been signed by Trump, without the normal fanfare that accompanies such signings in the White House.

Michael McFaul, former US ambassador to Russia, explained exactly what these sanctions do.

"As a practical matter ... they mostly codify the sanctions that are already there. There is a few places in the energy sector where it makes it harder for American companies to work with Russian companies in exploration ... But its mostly codifying .. making it difficult for the president to withdraw these sanctions in a negotiation .. and it's true that when sanctions are done by law they become sticky ... they last for a long time" (cf video above) (my emphasis)

What this is effect means is that the US sanctions that were instituted when Putin annexed Crimea and invaded the Ukrainian Donbas CANNOT be negotiated away by Trump without the approval of the US Congress.

Trump had absolutely no other alternative but to sign these sanctions into law, even though, emerging from the shadows, Rex Tillerson, former CEO of Exxon Mobil and now US Secretary of State, stated that,

"But the action by Congress to put these sanctions in place, and the way they did ...  neither the President nor I are very happy about that .. We were clear that it was not going to be helpful to our efforts, but that's the decision they made" (MSNBC : 2 August, 2017)

Not only is Trump and Tillerson unhappy about these new US sanctions, so is Putin, whose glove-puppet, Dmitry Medvedev stated that,

"New sanctions on Russia which U.S. President Donald Trump has signed into law are tantamount to a "full-scale trade war", Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said on Wednesday." (Alexander Winning and Jack Stubbs : Reuters : August 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

Putin is not alone in his anger against these US sanctions.

As Yasmeen Serhan  (right) reports,

"[EU] Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker (left) warned of potential collateral damage to Europe’s energy market, as the sanctions could inadvertently hit European companies involved with Russia’s energy-export pipelines. One such pipeline, the Nord Stream 2, which aims to carry natural gas from Russia to Germany through the Baltic Sea, involves several European companies."(The Atlantic : Aug 2, 2017) (my emphasis)

As Jon Rogers also reports,

"The German government and business leaders have said the new sanctions passed this month by the US House of Representatives could prevent German companies from working on pipeline projects that they say are essential to Germany's energy security." (The Express : Mon, Jul 31, 2017) (my emphasis) 

 
The fact that Trump has been forced to sign these sanctions into law also signifies that the "honeymoon" between Trump and the US House of Congress is coming to a rapid end.

In the words of US Senator Lindsey Graham,

"The fact that he does this quietly I think reinforces the narrative that the Trump administration is not really serious about pushing back on Russia and I think that is a mistake too because Putin will see this as a sign of weakness ..." (cf video below) (my emphasis)

Which once again raises the question,

"Why is Trump so fearful of Putin?" 

Could it just be that Steele dossier that Putin is holding over the head of Trump?

(to be continued)