Is Putin hitching a ride on the crest of the success of the AfD political wave in Germany?

The fallout from the recentb German elections is now beginning to take shape, and it is no wonder that Putin's mouthpiece, RT, is cozying up to the AfD political party that won 12.6% of the vote, and now contstitutes the 3rd largest political party in Germany.

Already one can hear the clinking glasses of champagne in the boardrooms of German business.

It will also embolden Sigmar Gabriel (left) to push for, what he refers to as, "a new détente with Russia".

As reported by Radio Poland,

"According to Gabriel, an argument voiced by some in Europe that sanctions against Russia should only be lifted after the so-called Minsk agreements are 100 percent implemented is “unrealistic," niezalezna.pl said." (Radio Poland : 21.09.2017) (my emphasis)

The political clout of Angela Merkel has been spiked by this political result of the AfD party, and it does not bode well for Merkel's pet political project, the implementation of the Minsk II agreement that has been fraught with Putin constantly stoking a breakdown of the ceasefire that has been agreed upon.

Already Putin is accelerating this breakdown.

As reported by RFERL,

"Ukrainian leaders said "sabotage" was behind massive explosions at an ammunition depot in central Ukraine that prompted the evacuation of more than 30,000 people and the closure of airspace over the region on September 27." (RFERL : September 28, 2017) (my emphasis)

This comes close on the heels of an earlier explosion that occurred in March 2017 in Eastern Ukraine.

As reported by Kyle Mizokami,

"The incident is strikingly similar to one that happened last March at another ammo dump at Balakliya, a military base in Eastern Ukraine, and both fit a pattern of attacks going back nearly two years." (PopularMechanics : Sep 27, 2017)    

 
Meanwhile the US Senate and Congressional Intelligence investigations into Putin interfering in the 2016 US Presidential elections continues to unearth exactly how Putin helped Trump into the White House.

Putin may have helped Trump into the White House but, unlike the AfD success in the German elections that is bringing him closer to the lifting of the EU sanctions against him, with the support of Sigmar Gabriel and the German business lobby, Putin is having to keep a wary eye on what is transpiring in the US.

Donald Trump is heading more rapidly towards an impeachment process as Facebook and Twitter are now firmly in the sights of the Senate and Congressional Intelligence Committees.

As much as Trump wants to also thank Putin by lifting the US sanctions against him, unfortunately for Trump neither the US Senate, nor the US Congress, is equivalent to Putin's rubber-stamping Russian Duma.

(to be continued)

Putin praying for the success of the AfD German political party in Sunday's Bundestag elections.

This coming Sunday, the 24th of September,

"Federal elections will be held in Germany [ ....  ]to elect the members of the 19th Bundestag. The new Bundestag will have to elect a Chancellor with an absolute majority of its members, who will in turn form a new government. (Wikipedia)

If the German polls are anything to go by,

"The German Chancellor [Angela Merkel] currently look set to storm to victory in the German election in September 2017 after managing to widen her lead over Martin Schulz in recent months. 
...
[...] the CDU/CSU now have now won back a staggering 16-point lead with 37 per cent support, compared to just 21 per cent for the SNP, according to the same poll September" (Alice Foster : Daily Express : 14 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

In the wings, however, is the AfD Party in Germany.

"In a sign of the growing discontent, the anti-euro, anti-Islam and anti-immigration AfD is tipped to become the first hard-right party to clear the five-percent bar to win seats in the national parliament since the end of World War II. ( Rappler (Agence France Presse) :  September 20, 2017) (my emphasis)

Since its launch in 2013, the AfD Party in Germany has emphasised that,

"More powers must return to the nation states, AfD says, opposing all "centralising" moves in the EU, and anything that smacks of Euro-federalism." (BBC News : 18 September 2017) (my emphasis)

This nationalist political agenda of the AfD party mirrors what Trump said throughout his presidential election campaign in 2016, and at his inaugural speech at the UN yesterday. (19 September, 2017)

It also mirrors Putin's nationalist argument about 'protecting' Russians, by his invading and annexing of Ukrainian Crimea, and subsequently invading Ukraine in the Donbas, in 2014.

• Speaking last year (2014), Mr Putin had said only that he took his final decision about Crimea after secret, undated opinion polls showed 80% of Crimeans favoured joining Russia.  (BBC : 9 March 2015) (my emphasis)
• In his address to the Russian State Duma Deputies (March 18, 2014) he stated his nationalist 'Novorossiya' argument for invading and annexing Crimea. "In people’s hearts and minds, [he said,] Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia. This firm conviction is based on truth and justice and was passed from generation to generation, over time, under any circumstances, despite all the dramatic changes our country went through during the entire 20^th century." (The Kremlin : March 18, 2014) (my emphasis)
• Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that his government was “forced to defend the Russian speakers” of eastern Ukraine, despite previously denying that Moscow plays any formal role in the conflict in the Donbas regions. (Damien Sharkov : Newsweek : 10/12/16) (my emphasis)

It is also these of Putin's actions, wrapped up in his nationalist "Novorossiya" flag, that led to the millstone of EU and US sanctions against himself and his 'siloviki' now hanging around his neck, and that ultimately led him to help Trump into the White House in 2018.

Putin expected those US sanctions to be removed, as well as the normalization of US-Russia relations when Trump, thanks to Putin, entered the White House.

As reported by John Hudson,

" In the third month of Donald Trump’s presidency, Vladimir Putin dispatched one of his diplomats to the State Department to deliver a bold proposition: the full normalization of relations between the United States and Russia across all major branches of government.

The proposal, spelled out in a detailed document obtained by BuzzFeed News, called for the wholesale restoration of diplomatic, military, and intelligence channels severed between the two countries after Russia’s military interventions in Ukraine and Syria.

The broad scope of the Kremlin’s reset plan came with an ambitious launch date: immediately." (Buzzfeed News : September 12, 2017) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin, the intelligence investigations into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections in the US Senate and House of Congress rather put paid to this bold idea of his.

Now Putin's hope is that in the upcoming elections in Germany this Sunday, the AfD party,

"...could lead the opposition in the Bundestag, a role that traditionally carries additional privileges, such as the presidency of the parliament’s budget committee.

According to a projection published last week by Berlin’s Tagesspiegel newspaper, the far-right party [AfD] could end up with as many of 89 out of 703 members in the Bundestag." (Philip Oltermann (right): The Guardian : Sunday 17 September 2017) (my emphasis)

Such a result would be sweet music to the ears of Putin and his German business buddies, since an AfD presidency of the Bundestag's budget committee would add further pressure for the lifting of the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clan.

Putin must now be praying for the success of the AfD German political party in Sunday's Bundestag elections. 

(to be continued)

How far will Putin now go in the Donbas to get NordStream2 off the drawing board?

Suddenly there has been a 'flurry' of diplomatic phone calls and meetings since Putin floated the idea with Angela Merkel for UN 'peacekeepers' to patrol the front-line in the Donbas.

Angela Merkel welcomed this 'gesture' of Putin's and saw in it a new opportunity for detente.

Of course, Angela Merkel is coming up for re-election, whilst the powerful German business lobby is now using this political 'gesture' of Putin's to further strengthen their hand into calling for the lifting of  the EU sanctions that were put in place when Putin decided to invade, and then annex, Ukrainian Crimea, whilst also sending his troops into the Donbas under the guise of 'protecting' Russian speakers.

Meanwhile, that 'dyed-in-the-wool' Soviet Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, had a bit of a chit-chat with US Secretary of State Tillerson, where they discussed, among other things,

" ..... the “necessity of increasing efforts on implementing the Minsk agreements on settling the crisis in the South-East of Ukraine” was also mentioned. (112UA : 17 September 2017) (my emphasis)

Now whilst Merkel and German businessmen are 'lauding' this gesture of Putin, Kurt Volker (left), US Special Representative to Ukraine, stated that, 
 
"It was very interesting last week to see how Russia offers a peacekeeping mission, a UN mission, something that Russia had previously said it would not support, something that was proposed after consultations in the Normandy format with the US and others. I think, the details of what was proposed, in fact, will even more divide Ukraine, and not solve the problem, "[Volker] said. (112UA : 16 September 2017) (my emphasis)
 
This 'sudden' UN peacekeepers idea of Putin's signals his anxiety to get the Nord Stream2 pipeline up and running as soon as possible, without giving these UN peacekeepers carte blanche to extend their services along the Russian-Ukrainian border in the Donbas. 

Kurt Volker is correct in saying that,

"I think, the details of what was proposed, in fact, will even more divide Ukraine, and not solve the problem"

UN Peacekeepers in the Donbas will not help Putin with NordStream2.  

Putin and his German "Putin Versteher" NordStream2 business cabal also have to contend with the US Senate passing of a bill to,

" .... impose sanctions on companies involved in funding Russian export pipeline projects – the latest in a series of steps designed to use Russian economic interests as leverage over Kremlin policy on Ukraine." (Nick Butler (right): Financial Times: July 3, 2017)  

Even more disconcerting for Putin and his German business buddies is the fact that,

"Thirteen EU member states have protested against the Nord Stream project, saying it will divert trade and transit revenues away from them and increase European dependence on Russian gas for decades to come. The protesting states want the European Commission to take control of negotiations of the project away from Germany and to set gas trade in the context of the Energy Union – a concept agreed in 2014 but never implemented. (ibid Nick Butler)

And now the battle in the EU over NordStream2 is hotting up.

As Anca Gurzu (left) reports,

"The big battle over Gazprom’s plan to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline begins this autumn — two years before it is slated to start pumping gas from Russia under the Baltic Sea to Germany.

Deep differences among EU countries on how to regulate the project are likely to emerge — testing the bloc’s unity on how to deal with Moscow and how to advance the EU’s energy diversification plans." (Politico : 4 September, 2017) (my emphasis)


These differences cannot be wished away by Angela Merkel,

"...  who rarely speaks publicly about the proposed pipeline, told journalists in June there’s no need for a negotiating mandate because Nord Stream 2 is a commercial endeavor." (ibid Anca Gurzu) (my emphasis)

By simply calling NordStream2  a "commercial endeavor", Angela Merkel seems to be ignoring the fact that,

"The [EU] Commission is in the midst of a massive antitrust case against Gazprom, and the geopolitical situation is vastly different following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. There is concern that Nord Stream 2 would bypass existing pipelines running across Ukraine, a source of crucial cash for the country." (ibid Anca Gurzu) (my emphasis)

How far will Putin  now go in the Donbas to get NordStream2 off the drawing board? 

(to be continued)

Why is Trump vacillating in supplying Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?

Recall that at 2017 BRICS Summit in Xiamen, Fujian province in China, September 4, 2017,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that any decision by the United States to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine would fuel the conflict in eastern Ukraine and possibly prompt pro-Russian separatists to expand their campaign there" (Denis Pinchuk : Reuters : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

This was a response of Putin to U.S. Defense Secretary Jim Mattis (right) who in Kiev, on Ukraine's Independence Day, stated that,

“On the defensive lethal weapons, we are actively reviewing it, I will go back now having seen the current situation and be able to inform the secretary of state and the president in very specific terms what I recommend for the direction ahead,” Mattis said.

“Defensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening,” Mattis said" (Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017) (my emphasis) 

And in three day's time, as Jonathan Marcus reports,

"It is being billed as a military exercise, but when Russian and Belarusian forces start Zapad-2017 this week, many neighbouring countries will be looking on nervously.

Zapad-2017 ("West-2017") is a joint strategic-level exercise involving Russian and Belarusian military forces, expected to begin on 14 September in Russia's western military district Kaliningrad, and across Belarus." (BBC News : 11 September, 2017) (my emphasis)

Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko, is in no doubt about the threat that Putin's Zapad-2017 so-called 'military exercises' poses for Ukraine.

"[..] President Petro Poroshenko says he fears that Russia could use massive military manoeuvres next week as a cover for invasion.

In a major speech, Mr Poroshenko said Russia's Zapad-2017 exercises with Belarus might be "a smokescreen to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory". (BBC News : 7 September 2017) (my emphasis)

This possible Putin smokescreen "to create new Russian army assault groups to invade Ukrainian territory" would be aided by the fact that:

• Donald Trump and his White House staff are currently pre-occupied with the devastating effects that hurricane Irma is having on Florida, and
• Angela Merkel is currently caught up in the throes of the German Chancellorship elections.

Added to which, US Defence Secretary Jim Mattis simply recommended to Trump and Rex Tillerson, US Secretary of State, that the US should supply Ukraine with defensive lethal weapons.

This recommendation of Mattis to Trump and Tillerson (right: Tillerson & Trump) that the US supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry happened towards the end of August, before hurricane Irma formed.

And whilst Trump has not yet signed off on supplying Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry, NATO Chief General Jens Stoltenberg has,

"...  urged Moscow to meet its international commitments to be fully transparent about war games planned for next month in Belarus and western Russia. 

"We are going to be watching very closely the course of these exercises," Stoltenberg told journalists in Warsaw on August 25.." (RFERL : August 25, 2017) (my emphasis)

Which begs the question,

"Why is Donald Trump vacillating in giving the go-ahead to supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weaponry?"

(to be continued)

Putin's greatest fear is now bubbling to the surface

In November 2018, just over one year from now, US Congressional elections will take place in which,

"All 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives and 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate will be contested." (Wikipedia)

Recall that Kissinger once remarked that,

“Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac”. (Philip Sherwell : The Telegraph : 21 May 2011)

It is therefore no co-incidence that Republican members on the House Intelligence Committee are now attempting to confuse and 'hamstring' the Congressional investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections so that they can stem the negative influence of the mounting evidence against Trump as they begin to mount their re-election to the US House of Congress.

As Max Kutner reports,

"[Republican members of the] House Intelligence Committee [have] issued subpoenas requesting that the FBI and Department of Justice provide documents related to an unverified [Steele] dossier about President Donald Trump. The latest subpoenas reportedly call on FBI Director Christopher Wray and Attorney General Jeff Sessions to appear before the House panel." (Newsweek : 5 Sept. 2017) (my emphasis) (cf also: Rachel Maddow video interview with Congressman Adam Schiff below)

Now recall that in July,

"That Republicans in the House of Congress are holding up a vote to increase sanctions against Putin for his meddling in the US presidential elections of 2016 is due, primarily, to the dilemma that they face.

• If they support the Senate vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be admitting that Putin helped Trump gain the presidency.

• If they scupper the vote to increase sanctions against Putin, they will be supporting Putin's and Trump's argument that Putin did not orchestrate the Russian collussion with Trump's lieutenants during the 2016 US presidential elections.

In other words, Congressional Republicans are being faced with the question,

"To impeach or not to impeach ..." (blog entry July )

Not wishing to be viewed as 'supporters of Putin', the Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee are now desperately trying to besmirch the character not only of Christopher Steele, but also those in the FBI who initially investigated the Steele dossier as well as, in particular, the Dept. of Justice Special Investigator Robert Mueller.

And whilst Republicans on the Congressional Intelligence Committee are attempting to confuse and 'hamstring' the Congressional investigation into the Putin-Trump collusion during the 2016 US presidential elections, Putin is throwing down the gauntlet by warning that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that any decision by the United States to supply defensive weapons to Ukraine would fuel the conflict in eastern Ukraine and possibly prompt pro-Russian separatists to expand their campaign there." (Denis Pinchuk : Reuters : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Which rather contradicts the reporting by Nataliya Vasilyeva that,

"Russia will ask the U.N. Security Council to send peacekeepers to patrol the front line in eastern Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday, a development greeted by Germany as a new opportunity for detente." (The Washington Post : September 5, 2017) (my emphasis)

Of course, there was the Putin caveat that,

"But he insisted that the peacekeepers should be deployed only along the line separating the rebel-controlled territories and the area under government control where the clashes occur. Russia’s foreign ministry will file a formal request with the U.N. Security Council, Putin said." (ibid Nataliya Vasilyeva) (my emphasis)

In other words, Putin is openly stating that the border between Ukraine and Russia in the Donbas area, controlled by his Russian soldiers and rebel proxies, should NOT be patrolled by UN peacekeepers, so that he can continue to build up his forces and military hardware in the Donbas area that he controls.

Angela Merkel's Foreign Secretary, hailed these weasel words of Putin.

"German Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said he found Putin's announcement "surprising" but said he was "very glad ... the Russian president said today he will continue to negotiate about demands that were rejected in the past by Russia." (Kirsten Grieshaber and David Rising : Mail Online (Associated Press Article) : 5 September 2017) (my emphasis)

And whilst Germany is hailing Putin's weasel words, Veronika Melkozerova (right) reports that,

"Without permission from Ukraine, Russia on Aug. 29 successfully erected the first 6,000 ton railroad arched section of the Crimean Bridge under construction.

When completed by 2019, the 19-kilometer, $3 billion span will cross the Kerch Straight and connect the Russian mainland with the illegally seized [Crimean] peninsula." (Kyivpost : Aug. 31, 2017) (my emphasis)

As the Trump presidency continues to implode, and  

• the subsequent Trump-payback-release of Putin from the US sanctions against him is now completely scuppered, 
•  the US Defence Secretary pronouncing that, "[Supplying Ukraine with] [d]efensive weapons are not provocative unless you are an aggressor and clearly Ukraine is not an aggressor since it is their own territory where the fighting is happening, (Idrees Ali and Pavel Polityuk : Reuters : August 24, 2017)

Putin can now only hope that many Republicans in the US Senate and the US House of Congress, as next year's Senate and Congressional elections loom ever closer, will manage to completely derail both the Senate and Congress Intelligence Committees investigation into just how he helped Donald Trump get elected to the White House.

 But his greatest fear is that Trump will be forced to give the green light to the US supplying Ukraine with weaponry of defence.

Is Putin's greatest fear now bubbling to the surface?

 

(to be continued)