Putin, Merkel, and Nord Stream 2

Jack Stubbs and Polina Nikolskaya (left) reports that,

"An escalation in U.S. sanctions against Moscow risks derailing a fragile recovery in Russia’s economy, which had just begun to take hold after the Kremlin’s last confrontation with the West in 2014, analysts and investors said on Monday. 

...

Russia’s rouble suffered its biggest daily fall in over three years on Monday and stocks in major Russian companies also slid, as investors reacted to the new sanctions....[A]luminum giant Rusal (0486.HK) lost over half its value in Hong Kong after its main owner Oleg Deripaska was named on the sanctions list." (Reuters : April 9, 2018) (my emphasis)

By contrast,

"Recent revisions to GDP data revealed that the [Ukrainian] economy performed better last year than previously thought. Strong wage growth, higher government spending and robust investment drove growth in 2017, although soaring imports dampened the external sector’s performance. The available data for the first quarter of 2018 suggests that the recovery remains on track, albeit moderate given the severity of Ukraine’s recession." (Focus Economics : April 10, 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Focus Economics March 29, 2018)

Added to which, as UNIAN reports,

"The EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee (PAC) states that Kyiv has prospects of becoming a member of the European Union provided it complies with certain principles." (UNIAN : 20 April,2018) (my emphasis)

This pronouncement by the PAC will further bolster the positive economic performance of the Ukrainian economy in the coming months.

Not only is Ukraine's economy growing whilst it is at war with Putin's Russia, we now learn that,

"The United State’s 22nd Permanent Representative to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison (left), has guaranteed Ukraine of the United States support for their induction into NATO. She expressed this confidently during a panel discussion at the eleventh Security Forum, which was set-up by the Open Ukraine Fund. She said, “We want Ukraine to become a NATO member, I can assure you.... (Kurt T : SOFREP : 16.04.2018) (my emphasis)

No doubt Putin is spitting nails at this US support for Ukraine joining NATO.

In response to these positive developments for Ukraine,

"Russian-led forces [launched a] savage Grad attack against defenders of Lebedynske in Donbas.
...
Since the beginning of the day, the Ukrainian military have recorded eight militant attacks, including with the use of banned Grad multiple rocket launchers." (UNIAN : 20 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's soldiers and proxies in Ukrainian Donbas are now also resorting to attacking Ukrainian civilians.

As UNIAN also reports,


"U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations Kurt Volker (right) has commented on a recent attack on personnel of Voda Donbasa's Donetsk Water Filtration Plant by Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine, saying that targeting civilians is unacceptable. "Very worrisome. Targeting civilians is unacceptable: #NotATarget," he tweeted on Tuesday evening." (UNIAN : 17 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by phone with German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Tuesday and discussed the situation around Syria and the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, the Kremlin said" (Polina Devitt : Reuters : April 17, 2018) (my emphasis)

As a sop to those who are against Nord Stream 2,

"Merkel appeared to signal a decrease in support for the planned pipeline last week, saying on April 10 that there were "political considerations" to take into account.
...
She said that she had told Putin by phone that the project could not go ahead without clarity on Ukraine's role as a gas transit route." (RFE/RL : April 17, 2018) (my emphasis) 

In this I am somewhat reminded of that secret Treaty of Rapallo (1922) between Germany and the then Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic, in particular Article 5, which states that,

"Article 5: The two Governments shall co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries. In the event of a fundamental settlement of the above question on an international basis, an exchange of opinions shall previously take place between the two Governments. The German Government, having lately been informed of the proposed agreements of private firms, declares its readiness to give all possible support to these arrangements and to facilitate their being carried into effect. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis) 

So what, exactly, did Putin and Merkel whisper into each other's ears during their recent phone conversation?

Is it also purely co-incidental that,

"Germany's Europe minister [Michael Roth (left), a member of the Social Democrat party (SPD)] called on Monday for a new policy of easing tensions with Russia, adding to a chorus of voices pressing Chancellor Angela Merkel to moderate her hardened stance towards the Kremlin." (The Hindu (Reuters) :  April 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

One can already hear the distant thud of German Business Jackboots trampling all over Ukraine towards Putin's Russia.

(to be continued)

Denmark now has the power to stop Putin's Nord Stream 2 pipeline dead in its tracks.

In May of 2014, an article appeared in The Economist entitled, "Germany and Russia : How Very Understanding"

This article goes on to explain the attachment of the German word, "versteher " to Putin. Specifically it points out that,

"The label is now being attached to so-called Russlandversteher or Putinversteher: members of the [German] elite or intelligentsia who gush with empathy for Russia and its president, Vladimir Putin, on talk shows, in journals and at dinner parties.

They include two former [German] Social Democratic chancellors. In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt  (left: with Putin) said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. 

Like Putin, who in March of 2017 said that,

"...  the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was purely economic and not directed against other countries, as he met the head of German chemicals group BASF, a potential partner in the project" (Reuters: March 22, 2017),

we also have Angela Merkel, the Putinversteher, arguing that,

“We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy diversification. We also want Ukraine to continue to have transit gas traffic, but we believe Nord Stream poses no danger to diversification,” she said" (Joseph Nasr & Noah Barkin : Reuters : February 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

And so,

"Germany has approved the construction and operation of the Russia-built Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, its operator and the German maritime authority said on Tuesday.
...
The Nord Stream 2 operator said it expected that other four countries along the route of the undersea gas pipeline – Russia, Finland, Sweden and Denmark – will issue permits in the coming months." (Reuters : March 27, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

Unfortunately, however, whilst Finland has recently given Putin permission "to use the Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for the construction of the pipeline", little Denmark finds itself in a real political quandary over whether it, too, should allow Putin's gas pipeline to cross through its territorial waters.

As reported by Stine Jacobsen and Alissa de Carbonnel (left),

"The Danish government is facing fierce lobbying by Russia, EU allies and the United States over the 9.5 billion euro ($11.7 billion) Nord Stream 2 project championed by President Vladimir Putin and financed by five Western firms.
 ...
A Danish veto, under new legislation allowing it to do so on security grounds, would force Russia, which supplies about one third of Europe’s gas needs, to find a new route for the pipeline.
...
“This is not about gas, it is one of the most important foreign policy decisions in Denmark since the Cold War,” said senior foreign policy researcher Hans Mouritzen at the Danish Institute for International Studies." (Reuters : March 26, 2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst Denmark is agonizing over whether it should grant Putin a permit to allow his Nord Stream 2 pipeline into their territorial waters, Ukraine's President, Petro Poroshenko, continues in his efforts to get a UN mandate for UN peacekeepers in the Donbas.

"Answering a question [in an interview with Handelsblatt] on how Berlin and Brussels should act in this regard, the president said: "They should urgently ensure that we can get the mandate from the UN Security Council. Plus it's about ceasefire... After all, amid the ongoing hostilities, peacekeepers will not be able to deploy there. And our Western partners should further realize that sanctions are an extremely effective tool - only they can force Putin to sit down at the negotiating table. If the Russian aggression continues, sanctions will need to be strengthened." (UNIAN : 9 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Adding to Poroshenko's call for UN peacekeepers to be deployed throughout the Donbas,

"Turkey is ready to participate in a U.N. peacekeeping mission in Donbass, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko's press service said Monday following a meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.
...
"President Petro Poroshenko informed the Turkish side on the situation in Donbass. … Turkey welcomed the deployment of the U.N. peacekeeping mission in the occupied area of Donbass and stated willingness to take part in this mission," the statement said." (Daily Sabah : 10 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Against the backdrop of Poroshenko's efforts to bring peace to the Donbas,

" Russia's hybrid military forces attacked Ukrainian army positions in Donbas 35 times in the past 24 hours, with three Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA)." (UNIAN : 10 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin's Nord Stream 2 pipeline is an integral part of his war with Ukraine and, as Darius McQuaid  reports,

"The [Nord Stream 2] pipeline will double the amount of Russian gas arriving in Germany and Russian energy giant Gazprom, which is behind the pipeline, already accounts for around one third of European gas supply.

Ukraine president Petro Poroshenko said the project is “political bribe money for [German] loyalty to Russia.”

He told German business paper Handelsblat the pipeline holds “no economic justification” but German Chancellor Angela Merkel has defended the pipeline by saying it is a purely “economic project”. (Express : April 9, 2018) (my emphasis)

And now we await the Danish decision on whether to grant Putin permission for his Nord Stream 2 pipeline to cross through their territorial waters, just as we await the decision of the UN whether to grant Ukraine's call for a UN peacekeeping forces to patrol throughout the Donbas.

Denmark now has the power to immediately stop Putin's Nord Stream 2 dead in its tracks. 

(to be continued)

Addendum: 11 April, 2018

In my blog entry of 22-4-2015, I wrote that,

"Former Polish President Lech Walesa (right) is more cautious, however. He argues that,

"..the West should confront Russian President Vladimir Putin with its own arsenal of nuclear weapons to curb what he called Russian aggression." (Dennis Lynch : International Business Times : April 08 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that, as Julian Isherwood reported in March,

"Russia has gone on the offensive in the Baltic, warning Denmark that if it joins Nato’s missile defence shield, its navy will be a legitimate target for a Russian nuclear attack." (The Telegraph : 21 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)"  

 One can now only hope that the Danish Parliament's decision about permission for the Nord Stream Pipeline2 to pass through their territorial waters will not be clouded by Putin's 2015 threat about them becoming a legitimate target for a Russian nuclear attack.