How far will Merkel go to bail out Putin from his current economic travails?

In my last blog entry (16/5/2018) I wrote that,

"Hedging his bets in case his Kerch bridge proves to be the 'white elephant' that it is, Putin has begun to accelerate his attempt to secure a land-bridge connection between Russia and Ukraine."

As UNIAN reports,

• The OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine has reported it spotted a significant accumulation of heavy weapons near the occupied village of Buhaivka in Donbas. (UNIAN: 22 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

• The occupation forces attacked Ukrainian troops 53 times in the past day. In particular, 30 attacks were mounted with the use of proscribed 122mm artillery systems, 120mm and 82mm mortars. (UNIAN: 22 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

However, it is also reported that,

"Ukraine conducted first launches of the Javelin missile systems today, May 22.

"Finally this day has come! Today, for the first time in Ukraine, the launch of Javelin missile complexes took place. This is a very effective defensive weaponry, which is used in the event of Russian offensive on the positions of Ukrainian troops," Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko wrote on Twitter." (UNIAN : 22 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

 

As well as conducting their first test of the Javelin Anti-Tank missile, UNIAN also reported that,

"The Ukrainian Armed Forces have repelled a militant subversive group that attempted to force the Ukrainian army out of the recently liberated village of Pivdenne in Donetsk region." (UNIAN : 21 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

Spitting nails, Putin has now decided to intensify his cyber attacks against Ukraine.

As reported by Jim Finkle and Pavel Polityuk,

"The U.S. government said late on Wednesday that it would seek to wrestle hundreds of thousands of infected routers and storage devices from the control of hackers who security researchers warned were planning to use the “botnet” to attack Ukraine.
...
Cisco said the largest number of infections from the VPNFilter malware were in Ukraine, which led it to believe Russia was planning an attack on that country. " (Reuters : May 23, 2018) (my emphasis) 
 

And whilst Putin's anger is now focusing itself on mounting a fully-fledged cyber attack against Ukraine, nonetheless the Putinversteher Angela Merkel concluded her meeting in Sochi with Putin (18 May, 2018), emphasizing that,

"We have strategic interests to maintain good relations with Russia ..." (see video below)

To which Putin responded,

"Germany is one of our key trade partners ... We just started to buy German goods in higher volumes, which supports jobs in Germany" (see video below)

Yet again am I reminded of the 1922 Treaty of Rapallo that was signed between Germany and Russia, in particular Article 5, which states that,

• Article 5: The two Governments shall co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries. In the event of a fundamental settlement of the above question on an international basis, an exchange of opinions shall previously take place between the two Governments. The German Government, having lately been informed of the proposed agreements of private firms, declares its readiness to give all possible support to these arrangements and to facilitate their being carried into effect.

The $64 question is,

"Just how far will Merkel go to bail out Putin from his current economic travails?" 

(to be continued)

The millstone of sanctions around Putin's neck is becoming unbearable.

In my blog entry of May 1, 2018, I wrote that,

"Unfortunately for Putin, as AT writes,

"On the Crimean bridge began to collapse support. The bridge can already be called emergency. According to safety rules, it is already necessary to demolish the problematic support and build a new one
...
But this concrete will create a huge load on the piles... 
...
If the bridge is opened and a stream of cars is allowed, it will cause even more load.
...
Many people will not even know that they are going to the emergency bridge, because the Russian propogandists were given a command that says nothing about it. (AT : YouTube : 24 Apr 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Igor Korsakov)"

Fifteen days later,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has attended the opening of the Crimean bridge.
...
 Being at the wheel of a Kamaz truck, Putin led a column of trucks.
...
Motor traffic along the Crimean bridge will be opened at 05:30 on May 16" (UNIAN : 15 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin, however, is also well aware of the serious problems that beset his Kerch Bridge, a bridge that may soon turn out to be a "white elephant".

A white elephant is a possession which its owner cannot dispose of and whose cost, particularly that of maintenance, is out of proportion to its usefulness.

The remarks of Ukrainian President, Petro Poroshenko, rather neatly sums up this opening of Putin's bridge.

""The illegal construction of the Kerch Strait Bridge is more evidence of Kremlin neglect of international law
...
"Russia will be fully responsible, and the bridge will be necessary for the invaders when they leave our Crimea urgently," Poroshenko said. (Interfax-Ukraine: 15.05.2018) (my emphasis)

Hedging his bets in case his Kerch bridge proves to be the 'white elephant' that it is, Putin has begun to accelerate his attempt to secure a land-bridge connection between Russia and Ukraine.

As reported by UNIAN, 

• "Russian-led forces mounted 80 attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, in the past day...In particular, the Russian occupation forces attacked the Ukrainian forces 22 times with the use of artillery systems and mortars, and there were two tank attacks ..." (7 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

• "Fierce fighting with Russian-led troops in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, continued on Saturday, May 12, as a result of which one Ukrainian soldier was killed in action, another four were wounded in action." (13 May, 2018)

• "The Russian-led forces in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, have started using the latest weapons against the Ukrainian army. A few days ago, the enemy launched the newest rockets to shell Ukrainian positions near the Ukrainian-controlled strategic port city of Mariupol" (13 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

• "Russian-led forces mounted 45 attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas in the past day, using heavy weapons 17 times. "Over the past 24 hours, the situation remained tense. The fighting intensified after 16:00 and continued in all sectors," (16 May, 2018) (my emphasis) 

As Kurt Volker is being given new powers as the US representative in Ukraine, UAWire reports that,

"Volker and Vladislav Surkov (right: Volker and Surkov) did not reach an agreement in the negotiations.
...
The stumbling point was  the law about the reintegration of the Donbas." (UAWire : Tuesday, May 15, 2018) (my emphasis)

And after [Kurt Volker's] visit to the Donbas, the first trip of the U.S. envoy to eastern Ukraine since the start of the JFO, the new military operation of the Ukrainian government in the conflict-hit region, Volker realised that,

"If Russia will veto the decision on peacekeepers, it means Kremlin wants to continue the war." (LiveUAmap: 15 May, 2018) (my emphasis) 

Putin's current escalation of the war between Ukraine and Russia should also be viewed against the backdrop of the effects that the new US sanctions against Russia are having, especially among his kleptocratic "inner circle".

As Benjamin Bathke and Elena Barysheva Report,

"Russian lawmakers have drafted a bill that would make it a criminal offence punishable by up to four years in jail to observe sanctions imposed by the United States or other foreign countries, Russian news agencies reported on Tuesday." (DW : 15.05.2018) (my emphasis)

To soften this blow on ordinary Russian citizens, Jamie Dettmer reports that,

"Initially, Russian lawmakers said they would impose restrictions on a wide range of specific goods and services from the United States, including medicine and agricultural products; but, in the draft legislation approved on May 15, language that targeted specific goods to soften the impact on Russian consumers and industries was removed." (VOA : 15 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

Russia is also starting to print money to assist Putin's billionaires who are now under US sanctions.

As UAWire reports,

"The Russian government has already given assistance to sanctioned billionaire Viktor Vekselberg’s Renova Group, and is currently working on financial support measures for Oleg Deripaska’s companies, including Rusal and the GAZ group, as announced on Monday by Russia’s acting  Finance Minister Anton Siluanov." (UAWire : Tuesday, May 15, 2018) (my emphasis)

This printing of money by Putin already amounts to $ billions. (ibid UAWire)

So whilst Putin was driving his truck along the emergency bridge of his Kerch bridge, he drove with a troubled mind.

Bailing out his 'inner circle' from the sanctions imposed upon them by the US, by printing billions upon billions of Roubles, shows that Putin is a worried man.
 
The millstone of sanctions around his neck is already becoming unbearable. 

(to be continued)

Will Putin fall into the abyss of starting World War 3?

The scarlet thread of Maidan has once again bubbled to the surface of  US Special Prosecutor Mueller's investigation into the Trump-Putin collusion during the 2016 US Presidential elections.

As reported by Andrew E. Kramer (left),

" ... in Ukraine, where officials are wary of offending President Trump, four meandering cases that involve Mr. Manafort, Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman, have been effectively frozen by Ukraine’s chief prosecutor.

The cases are just too sensitive for a government deeply reliant on United States financial and military aid, and keenly aware of Mr. Trump’s distaste for the investigation by the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, into possible collusion between Russia and his campaign, some lawmakers say.

The decision to halt the investigations by an anticorruption prosecutor was handed down at a delicate moment for Ukraine, as the Trump administration was finalizing plans to sell the country sophisticated anti-tank missiles, called Javelins." (New York Times : May 2, 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: UNIAN 3 May, 2018)

 

Jonathan Chait (right) also writes that,

"Donald Trump’s habitual dishonesty is a trait well understood by the entire mainstream news media, ...
The last few hours alone have brought news of fresh new forms of Trumpian dishonesty that have managed to shock even the people who were looking for it.

"Supporters of the [Trump] administration held up the sale [to Ukraine, of the US Javelin anti-tank missiles] as evidence that Trump could not have colluded with Russia — here he was, arming Russia’s enemy.
...
It is far more likely that somebody in the administration proposed a quid pro quo, and Ukraine quite rationally decided it would rather have weapons to defend itself against the next Russian aggression than participate in an investigation that the president of the United States regards as a mortal threat." (New York Magazine : May 2, 2018) (my emphasis)

And the next Russian aggression is not far off on the horizon.

On 16th March, 2018, UNIAN reported that,

"Russia has strengthened its military presence on the border with Ukraine as several mechanized divisions are fully prepared for intervention, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said, speaking before the Ukrainian troops in Luhansk region Friday, referring to a report by the commander of the Anti-Terrorist Operation.
...
"In his latest report, General Zabrodsky (chief of the ATO forces and commander of the landing-attack troops of the AFU Gen. Mykhailo Zabrodsky] reported in detail on the strengthening of the military presence of the Russian Federation along our border and continued stay of Russia's regular troops in the occupied territories," the president said." (UNIAN : 16 March, 2018) (my emphasis)

Carly Read further reports that, 

"US and Ukrainian officials have blasted Russia for reportedly shepherding in hundreds of tanks and rockets into the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine.
...
Alexander Vershbow (right), former US state department official at the Atlantic Council said: “The provision of Javelins as well as the tightening of sanctions against Russia provides essential leverage to achieve a negotiated solution.” (Express : May 2, 2018) (my emphasis)

It has now also being reported by Natalia Zinets and Alessandra Prentice that,

"Ukraine has decided to expand sanctions on Russian companies and entities to mirror those of the United States, which has blacklisted tycoons and allies of Russia’s Vladimir Putin, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Wednesday.
...
Kiev has also extended existing sanctions it introduced against hundreds of Russian companies and entities in response to the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Kremlin support for a pro-Russian separatist uprising in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : May 2, 2018) (my emphasis)
 
Putin is now teetering on the edge of a full scale invasion of Ukraine.

But the Ukrainian Army is now more than a match for Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in the Donbas, thanks in part to those Javelin missiles.

Will Putin fall into the abyss of starting World War 3?

(to be continued)

Will Trump's trade war with the EU cause the EU sanctions against Putin to crack?

"The law about riding the tiger of deception states that, "The longer you stay on, the easier it is to fall off."

In October of 2014,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday ordered government agencies responsible for major construction projects to build a bridge across the Kerch Strait connecting Crimea and Russia before the end of 2018.

The order was given on Wednesday at a session of the State Council, the country’s main consultative body, in Novosibirsk, Russian news agency TASS reported." (Global Construction Review : 9 October 2014) (my emphasis) 

Unfortunately for Putin, as AT writes,

"On the Crimean bridge began to collapse support. The bridge can already be called emergency. According to safety rules, it is already necessary to demolish the problematic support and build a new one
...
But this concrete will create a huge load on the piles... 
...
If the bridge is opened and a stream of cars is allowed, it will cause even more load.
...
Many people will not even know that they are going to the emergency bridge, because the Russian propogandists were given a command that says nothing about it. (AT : YouTube : 24 Apr 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Igor Korsakov)

Adding to his problems with a critical part of his Kerch Bridge in danger of collapse, Putin now also has to contend with the fact that,

"Ukraine has received the first U.S. Javelin missiles and launch units, Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said on Monday. (Pavel Polityuk : Reuters :30 April :2018) (my emphasis)

And whilst the Kerch bridge is collapsing, and the Ukrainian Army becomes even more of a powerful adversary against Putin's forces in the Donbas,

"The G7 Foreign Ministers have said sanctions against Russia will continue.
...
"Minister [Minister of International Trade of Canada Chrystia] Freeland and G7 Foreign Ministers reaffirmed our shared respect for rules-based international order, including on territorial sovereignty. Sanctions imposed on Russia following its unacceptable actions in Ukraine will continue," Canada's Foreign Ministry wrote on Twitter on April 22, 2018." (UNIAN : 23 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

In response to these negative developments,

"Ukraine's Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) calls on the international community to put more pressure on Russia over recent escalation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "Russia needs destabilization of Ukraine. 61 attacks, mortars used. 7 UA WIA [wounded in action]. Urge partners exert more pressure on Ru," MFA press secretary Mariana Betsa (left) wrote on Sunday, April 29." (UNIAN : 29 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

It is therefore no wonder that,

"A special order will be in effect with the decision of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko on the start of the operation of joint forces in the area of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

The resolution on the special order was handed to Interfax-Ukraine by the Command of the joint headquarters on Friday.

The resolution will take effect on Monday, April 30." (Kyiv Post : April 28, 2018) (my emphasis)

Giving Putin some cheer is the fact that Trump is not budging on his recently pronounced tariffs on  steel and aluminium from the EU.

His recent meeting with Angela Merkel was, to say the least, somewhat frosty.

As reported by Julie Hirschfeld Davis,

"President Trump and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany made no attempt on Friday to hide their disagreements over the future of the Iran nuclear deal and trade relations between the United States and Europe after a day of White House meetings that appeared to have produced no breakthroughs on major disputes. (New York Times : 27 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

Shawn Donnan and Jim Brunsden (left) also report that,
 
"The White House on Monday said the EU, Canada and Mexico had been given a “final” 30-day window to negotiate deals with the Trump administration to permanently avoid the import taxes. Mr Trump said he was imposing the duties in the name of “national security” and to combat global overcapacity in metals fed by soaring Chinese production over the past decade." (Financial Times : 1 May, 2018)
 
But, as  Daniel Boffey writes,

"The EU has warned that it will not “shoot from the hip” but is fully prepared for a trade war with the US amid heightened concerns that the bloc’s last minute crisis talks are doomed to fail." (The Guardian : 30 April, 2018) (my emphasis)

This is a trade war that Putin relishes since it will add pressure to the calls of German businessmen, in particular, to get rid of the EU sanctions imposed against Putin because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine in the Donbas.  

As of yet we are not sure how the Danish parliament will react to the question of whether to grant Putin permission for his Nord Stream 2 pipeline to cross their territorial waters.

German businessmen are anxiously awaiting the decision of the Danes, as is Putin.

Whilst the EU may be ready for a Trade War with Donald Trump, the disagreements between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump may yet turn out to be the excuse that will be used to unravel the EU sanctions against Putin. 

Like the Kerch bridge, will Trump's trade war with the EU cause the EU sanctions against Putin to begin to crack.

(to be continued)