Putin expecting unilateral concessions from Trump at their impending summit meeting

John Bolton, Trump's latest National Security Advisor, and a 'former' hawk on US-Russia relations, seems to have had a 'complete Trumpian conversion'.

As reported by Kathrin Hille,

" John Bolton, Donald Trump’s hawkish national security adviser, has hit out at criticism of the US president’s plans to meet Vladimir Putin, as the Kremlin said the two sides had agreed a date and location for the summit." (FT : 27 June, 2018) (my emphasis)

Putin is 'over the moon' about this impending summit between himself and Trump.

"Your visit to Moscow raises hopes that we may make the first step of restoration of fully fledged relations between our government", Putin said to Bolton at their meeting in Moscow. (video above :

Denis Pinchuk and Polina Ivanova : Reuters : 27 June, 2018) (my emphasis)

Recall that in my blog entry of [9/6/2018] I wrote that,

""Like a bolt out of the blue, Trump announced yesterday that a summit meeting between himself and Putin is being set up.
.....
As Brett Forrest and Peter Nicholas report,

"Any meeting between the two presidents would be expected to include discussions on Syria, Ukraine and nuclear-arms control. The summit’s purpose would be to resolve longstanding differences, people familiar with the matter said.
....
[Trump] added: “There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy.” He went on to suggest that a more collaborative relationship with Russia could curb the arms race." (Wall Street Journal : June 1, 2018) (my emphasis)" (blog : 9/6/2018)

So like Kim Jong-UN,  is Putin expecting Trump to similarly announce that he is going to lift all those sanctions against Russia at their impending summit meeting? "

This will be high on Putin's summit agenda with Trump since Nord Stream 2, Putin's weaponized pipeline against Ukraine, depends on the decision of the Danish government whether or not to allow Nord Stream 2 to pass through their territorial waters.

Trump may pronounce at this impeding summit that 'no US sanctions will be taken against any EU companies helping Putin with building the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.(cf. blog entry [18/6/2018])

Also high on Putin's agenda will be a public recognition, by Trump, that Ukraine's Crimea really belongs to Russia.

 
Let us recall that even before the 2016 US presidential election, Trump legitimised Putin's illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, blaming it on former US president Obama! 

And more recently Trump, once again, blamed former US President Obama for Putin illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea.

As Alberto Nardelli and Julia Ioffe (left) reported,

"President Donald Trump told G7 leaders that Crimea is Russian because everyone who lives there speaks Russian, according to two diplomatic sources.
...
Trump also blamed former president Barack Obama for what happened in Ukraine. "Obama can say all he wants, but he allowed Russia to take Crimea," Trump said." (BuzzFeed News : June 14, 2018) (my emphasis)

All of which once again raises the central question of what possible hold Putin may have on Trump.

As Colonel Peters states in the above video,

"When I first learnt about the Steele dossier it just rang true to me because that's how the Russians do things. And before he became a candidate, Donald Trump was the perfect target for Russian intelligence.
....
In the future we are going to look back on the much maligned Christopher Steele who took that dossier to the FBI as something of a hero ...."

As in his summit with Kim Jong Un, where he unilaterally decided that the US will,

"..... end joint military exercises with South Korea [which] took South Korean and U.S. military officials by surprise..." (Josh Smith and Phil Stewart: Reuters : 12 June, 2018) (my emphasis),

are we in for surprise unilateral Trump concessions to Putin at their coming Helsinki summit meeting?

(to be continued)

Putin's pressure on Denmark grows greater by the day.

In my blog entry of 10/4/2018, I wrote that,

"Germany has approved the construction and operation of the Russia-built Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, its operator and the German maritime authority said on Tuesday.
...
The Nord Stream 2 operator said it expected that other four countries along the route of the undersea gas pipeline – Russia, Finland, Sweden and Denmark – will issue permits in the coming months." (Reuters : March 27, 2018) (my emphasis)

"Unfortunately, however, whilst Finland has recently given Putin permission "to use the Finnish Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for the construction of the pipeline", little Denmark finds itself in a real political quandary over whether it, too, should allow Putin's gas pipeline to cross through its territorial waters.

As reported by Stine Jacobsen and Alissa de Carbonnel (left),

"The Danish government is facing fierce lobbying by Russia, EU allies and the United States over the 9.5 billion euro ($11.7 billion) Nord Stream 2 project championed by President Vladimir Putin and financed by five Western firms.
 ...
A Danish veto, under new legislation allowing it to do so on security grounds, would force Russia, which supplies about one third of Europe’s gas needs, to find a new route for the pipeline.
...
“This is not about gas, it is one of the most important foreign policy decisions in Denmark since the Cold War,” said senior foreign policy researcher Hans Mouritzen at the Danish Institute for International Studies." (Reuters : March 26, 2018) (my emphasis)" (blog)

And just recently,

"Denmark is the last hold out in Europe, yet to give permission for the construction of the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline after the Swedish government became the latest EU country to sign off on construction permissions for the pipeline that will carry Russian gas from the Yamal peninsula under the Baltic Sea to Germany." (bneIntelliNews : June 13, 2018) (my emphasis)

“This is an important milestone for the Nord Stream 2 project. We are pleased to have obtained the Swedish government’s approval to construct and operate the Nord Stream 2 Pipeline,” said Lars O Grönstedt, Senior Advisor at Nord Stream 2, quoted in an official press release." (Georgi Gotev (left):EuroActiv : June 11, 2018)

 One can now begin to imagine the increasing pressure that will be exerted on the Danish parliament to also give Putin permission for his Nord Steam 2 pipeline to pass through Danish waters.

 All those countries which have given Putin his Nord Stream 2 "Go Past Go and collect $100" Monopoly ticket cannot simply argue that their decisions are based purely on economic criteria.

What their decisions have done is to actively support Putin in weaponizing this pipeline against Ukraine.

As Hans Mouritzen correctly argues,

“This is not about gas, it is one of the most important foreign policy decisions in Denmark since the Cold War.” (ibid Stine Jacobsen and Alissa de Carbonnel)

This decision of Sweden has even further significance in view of Trump's determination to steam ahead with his summit with Putin.

 
As reported by Jeff Zeleny, Zachary Cohen and Michelle Kosinski,

"Moscow and Washington are "exploring" the possibility of a meeting between the two leaders, according to US officials and a Russian media report.
...

While nothing is imminent, the official acknowledged there are ongoing discussions of setting up a Putin-Trump face-to-face.

...

Another source with the National Security Council said a meeting "is being worked on" and a diplomatic source added that a meeting is likely to happen soon." (CNN : 15 June, 2018) (my emphasis)

Key for Putin at this impending summit between himself and Trump will be to ensure that no US sanctions will be imposed on EU companies helping in the construction of the Nord Sea 2 pipeline IF Denmark also gives permission for it to pass through Danish waters.

As William Wilkes  recently reported,

"The U.S. stepped up its opposition to the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline linking Russia and Germany, saying the project raises security concerns and that it could draw U.S. sanctions.
...
U.S. threats to Nord Stream 2, which has split eastern and western EU states, could impact companies in Austria, France, Germany and the Netherlands. (Bloomberg : May 17, 2018) (my emphasis)


Let us now recall that at the Trump-Kim Jong Un summit, Trump suddenly announced that he was ending the joint military exercises between the US and South Korea. (Brad Lendon : CNN : June 12, 2018)

When the Trump-Putin summit takes places, will he also suddenly announce that Nord Stream 2 can go ahead, without the incurring of US sanctions on EU companies helping to build Nord Stream 2?

Everything now depends on the decision that the Danish parliament will take regarding Nord Stream 2 passing through their territorial waters. 

• If they say "No", then no matter what Trump says, Nord Stream 2 will be scuppered. 
• If they say "Yes", then Trump will go against the US government.

Putin's pressure on Denmark grows greater by the day.

(to be continued)

Like Kim Jong-UN, is Putin expecting Trump to announce that he is going to lift US sanctions against Russia at their impending summit meeting?

The big buildup to the Trump - Kim Jong UN meeting in Singapore has subsided, and the actual meeting itself had ended not so much with a bang, but rather with a whimper.

More than anything else, this meeting has propelled Kim Jong-Un onto the international stage, to his obvious delight.

 

What has somewhat been hidden from view is an interview given by Putin to the new China Media Group, prior to Trump's Singapore meeting.

What is interesting is just how much of what Putin said about the situation regarding North Korea during his pre-Singapore interview, and what Trump subsequently said during his speech and press conference after his meeting with Kim Jong-Un, uncannily mirror critical statements made by each other.

Indeed, one could almost conclude that Putin must have had a hand in drafting Trump's Singapore speech.

 

And just as Trump and Kim Jong-Un had their 'summit' meeting in Singapore,

"The German, French, Russian, and Ukrainian foreign ministers were meeting in Berlin late on June 11 for talks on bringing an end to the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

The meeting -- the first of the "Normandy" group in more than a year -- focused on implementing an unfulfilled peace agreement reached in 2015 and the possibility of deploying a UN peacekeeping mission in the conflict zone." (RF/ERL : June 11, 2018) (my emphasis)

The sticking point for Putin about the deployment of UN troops is that,

"Germany and France (and Ukraine) want UN troops to be deployed in all areas controlled by Russia-backed rebels, including on the Ukraine-Russia border"(ibid RF/ERL,

whereas Putin simply wants them to patrol along the line of contact in the Donbas.

As reported by Michael Nienaber (left),

"German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said after the four-way talks that Russia and Ukraine agreed in principle on a UN peacekeeping mission, but their ideas about how to implement it were still “very much apart.”(Reuters : June 11, 2018) (my emphasis)

"What", we may ask, "does Putin have to gain in upturning this latest 'Normandy Group Meeting', especially in light of the dire state of the Russian economy?"

Which brings us back to that recent Trump-Kim Jong-UN summit in Singapore.

A few minutes ago the BBC reported that,

"North Korea has celebrated the Trump-Kim summit as a great win for the country, with state media reporting that the US intends to lift sanctions." (BBC : 13 June, 2018)

And in a recent blog entry (9/6/2018) I wrote that,

"Like a bolt out of the blue, Trump announced yesterday that a summit meeting between himself and Putin is being set up.
.....
As Brett Forrest and Peter Nicholas report,

"Any meeting between the two presidents would be expected to include discussions on Syria, Ukraine and nuclear-arms control. The summit’s purpose would be to resolve longstanding differences, people familiar with the matter said.
....
[Trump] added: “There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy.” He went on to suggest that a more collaborative relationship with Russia could curb the arms race." (Wall Street Journal : June 1, 2018) (my emphasis)" (blog : 9/6/2018)

So like Kim Jong-UN,  is Putin expecting Trump to similarly announce that he is going to lift all those sanctions against Russia at their impending summit meeting? 

(to be continued) 

Trump is actively supporting Putin by opening up a rift between the US and its European allies.

In my last blog entry I posed the question,

"Trump, having set in motion this trade war with the EU, among others, we have to now ask ourselves the following question,

"Like Merkel, how far will Trump go to bail out Putin from his economic travails?"" (blog entry: 2-6-2018)

Trump has now answered that question.

As reported by Julian Borger and Anne Perkins ,

" Donald Trump has called for Russia to be readmitted to the G7 club of world leaders, opening up a new rift with US allies who swiftly contradicted him at a contentious summit in Quebec." (The Guardian : Fri 8 Jun 2018) (my emphasis) 

  

British Prime Minister, Teresa May, has responded to Trump's call for re-instating Putin into the G7.

"We should remind ourselves why the G8 became the G7, it was because Russia illegally annexed Crimea.
 
'We have seen malign activity from Russia in a whole variety of ways, of course including on the streets of Salisbury in the UK.

'So we need to say, I think, before any such conversations can take place Russia needs to change its approach." (Kate Ferguson and John Stevens : Mail Online : 8 June 2018) (my emphasis) (cf. also: CNN : Business Insider : The Hill)

 
Little did those at Maidan in 2014 realise just where their overthrow of Putin's puppet, the then president of Ukraine, Victor Yanukovich (right), would lead to. 

Putin and Trump cannot escape from this 'Thread of Maidan' that binds them together tightly.

It is this 'Thread of Maidan'  that not only has led to Putin being evicted from the G8 but, more significantly, has led to the crippling EU-US sanctions against Putin for his annexation of Ukrainian Crimea and his ongoing war with Ukraine, 

 Whilst Putin may now be riding the crest of a wave with Trump, it is reported that,

"The UN Security Council has unanimously condemned the "continuous violations of the cease-fire" in eastern Ukraine and called for an immediate withdrawal of heavy weapons." (RFERL : June 07, 2018) (my emphasis)

Notice in this "condemnation" that the primary perpetrators of these 'ceasefire violation' viz. Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in the Donbas, have NOT been condemned. 

It is for this reason that the Russian ambassador to the UN stated that,

"It's been a long time since the council adopted anything on Ukraine and we are very happy," Russian UN Ambassador Vasily Nebenzya (right) said after the vote, calling the resolution's reaffirmation of the Minsk agreement "very constructive." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

No doubt that at the back of Nebenzya's mind when agreeing to this UN Security Council statement is the fact that,

"The European Union in March extended its sanctions by another six months, but the coming to power of more pro-Russian governments in Italy, Austria, Hungary, and elsewhere has increased calls within the bloc for easing the sanctions." (ibid RFERL) (my emphasis)

And whilst this Security Council condemnation was being agreed upon by Putin's mouthpiece at the UN, the Moscow Times reports that,

"President Vladimir Putin on Thursday warned Kiev of "very serious consequences for Ukrainian statehood" if it were to launch military action against pro-Russian rebels in the east during the football World Cup, which begins in Russia next week." (The Moscow Times : Jun 09, 2018) (my emphasis),

whilst at the same time, UNIAN reports that,

"The Russian occupation troops are carrying out terrain mining with the use of Russian-made anti-personnel mines, which are prohibited by international law." (UNIAN : 08 June, 2018) (my emphasis)

And ...... ,

"Russia's hybrid military forces mounted 37 attacks on Ukrainian army positions in Donbas in the past 24 hours, with four Ukrainian soldiers reported as wounded in action (WIA)." (UNIAN : 08 June,2018) (my emphasis)

All of which rather calls into question the motivation of Putin's UN mouthpiece, Vasily Nebenzya, agreeing to the UN Security Council 'condemnation' of the ceasefire violations in the Donbas, without the Security Council identifying Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies as being the prime instigators thereof.

Trump is emboldening Putin by opening up a new rift between the US and its European allies.

 
Will this Trumpian rift also embolden the pro-Russian governments in Italy, Austria, Hungary, and elsewhere to mount a concerted and vigorous attack against the current EU sanctions hanging around Putin's neck?

(to be continued)

Like Merkel, how far will Trump go to bail out Putin from his economic travails?

Like a bolt out of the blue, Trump announced yesterday that a summit meeting between himself and Putin is being set up.

Now a summit meeting is,

" ... an international meeting of heads of state or government, usually with considerable media exposure, tight security, and a prearranged agenda." (Wikipedia)

As Brett Forrest and Peter Nicholas report,

"Any meeting between the two presidents would be expected to include discussions on Syria, Ukraine and nuclear-arms control. The summit’s purpose would be to resolve longstanding differences, people familiar with the matter said.
....
[Trump] added: “There is no reason for this. Russia needs us to help with their economy.” He went on to suggest that a more collaborative relationship with Russia could curb the arms race." (Wall Street Journal : June 1, 2018) (my emphasis)

Now recall that in my last blog entry I wrote that,

"And whilst Putin's anger is now focusing itself on mounting a fully-fledged cyber attack against Ukraine, nonetheless the Putinversteher Angela Merkel concluded her meeting in Sochi with Putin (18 May, 2018), emphasizing that,

"We have strategic interests to maintain good relations with Russia ..."

To which Putin responded,

"Germany is one of our key trade partners ... We just started to buy German goods in higher volumes, which supports jobs in Germany" (blog entry: 24/5/2018)

Both Trump and Merkel seem, ironically, to be "concerned" in helping Putin out of the economic morass into which he has plunged the Russian economy.

And whilst Trump states that, "Russia needs us to help with their economy",Nikki Hayley (right), the US representative at the UN, stated in no uncertain terms that,

"We condemn, in the strongest terms, Russia's involvement in eastern Ukraine and its purported annexation of Crimea," said Haley, promising US sanctions will remain in place until Russia withdraws from the long-simmering conflict, which she called "a textbook example of the direct violation of the sovereignty of one (UN) member state by another member state." (Laura Koran : CNN : May 29, 2018) (my emphasis)

 As Trump is gearing up for a summit with Putin, Dough Palmer (left) reports that,

"The Trump administration will impose new duties on steel and aluminum imports from three key trading partners — the European Union, Canada and Mexico — after failing to reach deals with them to address national security concerns related to the imports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said Thursday." (Politico : 31 May, 2018) (my emphasis)

Trump, having set in motion this trade war with the EU, among others, we have to now ask ourselves the following question,

"Like Merkel, how far will Trump go to bail out Putin from his economic travails?" 

Even more pertinent,

"How far will Merkel's and Trump's bailout of Putin from his economic travails undermine the EU-US sanctions against Putin because of his illegal annexation of Ukrainian Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine?"

(to be continued)