Is Putin beginning to fall into the abyss of starting WW3?

Iryna Nazarchuk has reported that,

"British defense minister Gavin Williamson (left) visited Ukraine on Friday where he told his Ukrainian counterpart that the Black Sea did not belong to Russia and that Britain had sent a Royal Navy ship there to show Kiev did not stand alone." (Reuters : 21 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Mail Online

At the same time, Jens Stoltenberg, NATO Secretary General, stated that,

"Last week, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told journalists in Brussels the North Atlantic alliance would be taking more of a “leadership” role in defending Ukraine. “We are also supporting Ukraine to improve its naval capabilities,” Stoltenberg said." (Anna Nemtsova : Daily Beast : 21 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Earlier, during his four-hour press conference Thursday (20 Dec., 2018) Putin,

" .... showed no sign he’d be softening his position on the Kerch Strait or in the Sea of Azov to respect Ukrainian sovereignty. “We have a right and we will design our military policy the way we consider necessary,” he said. “If General Staff [of the Armed Forces], the border guard service, think we need to reinforce security on a certain territory, we are going to do it.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting, however, at his marathon press conference last Thursday, Putin rather bluntly stated that,

" ... The danger of the situation escalating is being downplayed. It now seems to be impossible ... something not of crucial importance .. But at the same time if something like this would happen this might lead to the collapse of the entire civilization ... maybe our planet ..."

According to Russian opposition leader Dmitry Gudko (left),

“Putin’s popularity is now down to 45 percent, as low as it was before he annexed Crimea; so he needs a little victorious war again to boost his rating, or at least to keep it from fading away.” (ibid Anna Nemtsova) (my emphasis)

Would Putin start a nuclear war simply to boost his ratings?

As I wrote in my last blog entry (12/12/2018),

"Let us not forget the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that killed 293 innocent Russian civilians, and injured more than 1,000, and that pointed directly to Putin as the perpetrator of this massacre upon his own people. (cf. CBC : 8 January 2015, Wikipedia, David Satter ; National Review (17 Aug., 2017), Scott Anderson : GQ (March 30, 2017) )

These bombings catapulted Putin into his first term as president of Russia.

Let us now remind ourselves that,

"Moscow's persistence in claiming that Ukraine is plotting a chemical attack in the occupied Donbas raises serious concerns, says Ukrainian MP Dmytro Tymchuk, who is also a coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT group.
...
On November 26, a statement was made by Russian ambassador to the OSCE, A. Lukashevich (left), that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "are preparing a provocation with the use of chemical weapons in Donbas."
...
[Furthermore], on December 5, at a briefing of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova (left) told the same thing, adding: “Such actions can lead to civilian casualties and contradict not only the Minsk Agreements, but also international agreements on the prohibition and restriction of weapons of mass destruction...” (UNIAN : 10 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

When viewed against Putin's recent statement about the "danger of the situation [at the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov] escalating", we can discern a propaganda pattern that Putin is using as a prelude to legitimize a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.

If, however, Putin thought that the current preoccupation of the US Senate and House of Congress with the increasing problems confronting Trump's hold on the US presidency will somehow divert their attentions away from his rapidly escalating move to invade Ukraine, he has sorely miscalculated.

In a press release by Senator Ron Johnson,

"U.S. Senators Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), Richard Durbin (D-Ill.) (left: Durbin and Johnson), and 39 of their colleagues introduced a resolution calling for a prompt multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea and the cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in response to Russia’s recent aggressive actions in the Kerch Strait and the Sea of Azov. (my emphasis)


“The United States and our allies need to rapidly counter Russia’s military aggression in the Kerch Strait with strong and resolute action,” Sen. Johnson said. “Assembling a multinational freedom of navigation operation in the Black Sea to help ensure safe passage into the Sea of Azov, combined with cancellation of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline is exactly the kind of response Putin needs to see.” (19 December, 2018) (their emphasis) (Full text of resolution)

 
As ships of NATO, the US, and Great Britain begin to assemble in the Black Sea and, possibly, head towards the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov and towards Ukraine's port of Mariupol, will Putin stand in their way?

Should we take him at his word when he said that,

"... The danger of the situation escalating is being downplayed. It now seems to be impossible ... something not of crucial importance .. But at the same time if something like this would happen this might lead to the collapse of the entire civilization ... maybe our planet ..."?

 

Is Putin beginning to fall into the abyss of starting WW3?

(to be continued)

Is Putin throwing Maria Butina OR Donald Trump under the bus.

In August of 2014, the massacre of Ukrainian soldiers retreating from the city of Illovaisk, after being surrounded by Putin's Russian soldiers, took place.

This massacre committed by Putin's soldiers and his proxies in Illovaisk occurred AFTER Putin himself agreed that those encircled Ukrainian soldiers would be allowed to SAFELY retreat from Illovaisk. (cf: Wikipedia, Lucian Kim: Newsweek(Reuters): 4 November, 2014 , BBC : 20 August, 2014)

 

Fast forward to 2018 and we have Putin preparing another Illovaisk massacre.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Military columnist and expert with the Information Resistance OSINT community, Yuriy Karin, has said Russia, to destabilize the situation in Ukraine, may set up another "Ilovaisk pocket."" (UNIAN : Wednesday 12 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

What is more disturbing, as reported by UNIAN,

"Moscow's persistence in claiming that Ukraine is plotting a chemical attack in the occupied Donbas raises serious concerns, says Ukrainian MP Dmytro Tymchuk, who is also a coordinator of the Information Resistance OSINT group.
...
On November 26, a statement was made by Russian ambassador to the OSCE, A. Lukashevich (right), that the Ukrainian Armed Forces "are preparing a provocation with the use of chemical weapons in Donbas."
...
On December 5, at a briefing of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Zakharova (left) told the same thing, adding: “Such actions can lead to civilian casualties and contradict not only the Minsk Agreements, but also international agreements on the prohibition and restriction of weapons of mass destruction...”
(UNIAN : 10 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

Let us not forget the Moscow apartment bombings in 1999 that killed 293 innocent Russian civilians, and injured more than 1,000, and that pointed directly to Putin as the perpetrator of this massacre upon his own people. (cf. CBC : 8 January 2015, Wikipedia, David Satter ; National Review (17 Aug., 2017), Scott Anderson : GQ (March 30, 2017) )

Like Trump, who is now trapped in the evidence-vice of the Mueller investigation into his collusion with Putin during the 2016 US presidential elections, Putin realizes his mis-calculation in attacking Ukraine's ships at the mouth of the Sea of Azov.

No more is this evidenced than by the fact that,

"Today (11 Dec., 2018), the House of Representatives passed H. Res. 1162, which renews calls for Russia to end hostilities that violate Ukraine’s sovereignty, reaffirms the House’s commitment to Ukraine’s independence and security, and urges the president to hold Russia accountable for its aggressive behavior. Passage of the resolution comes in the wake of Russia’s seizure last month of Ukrainian ships and crew in the Azov Sea." (US Foreign Affairs Committee : 11 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

 As Paul Gregory (left) also notes,

"Germany has been a lonely supporter of NS2, a pipeline being built by Russia’s gas monopoly, Gazprom, and German/Austrian utility giants
under the Baltic Sea to deliver Russian natural gas directly to Germany.
.....
The election of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer
(AKK) (right) to succeed Merkel as head of the Christian Democrats (CDU) has provided an
impetus to reconsider the NS2 project, which the influential German newspaper, Die Zeit, calls a “foreign policy disaster for Germany.”
.....
Putin himself, not Germany, reopened the NS2 debate with his blocking the Sea of Azov, seizing Ukrainian naval vessels and charging Ukrainian navy men with criminal acts.
.....
With such rogue behavior, it is increasingly difficult for Germany’s Putin Versteher to argue that NS2 is simply a normal commercial deal. It should be increasingly clear that Gazprom is not a commercial business but an arm of Russian geopolitical policy. (The Hill : 12 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

And now we also have Pete Madden, Katherine Faulders, and Matthew Mosk reporting that,

"Maria Butina (left), a 30-year-old Russian gun rights activist who stands accused developing a covert influence operation in the United States, has agreed to plead guilty to conspiracy and cooperate with federal, state and local authorities in any ongoing investigations.
.....
Based on the description, the “Russian Official” appears to be Alexander Torshin, deputy governor of the Russian Central Bank and a close ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Under his direction, the agreement said, she “sought to establish unofficial lines of communication with Americans having power and influence over U.S. politics.” (ABC News: 10 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

ABC News 10 Dec., 2018

Putin's response to this development, was to feign complete ignorance of Butina, even though Alexander Torshin, Putin's deputy governor of his Central Bank, was her handler.

MSNBC (Dec 12, 2018)

Which rather raises the interesting question,

"In light of the international response to his recent rogue behaviour at the mouth of the Sea of Azov (seizing Ukrainian naval vessels and charging Ukrainian navy men with criminal acts), and given that Nord Stream2 may be "reconsidered" by Merkel's CDU successor, is Putin now throwing Maria Butina OR Donald Trump under the bus?

(to be continued)

Putin's finger is now hovering over his nuclear button.

Putin's recent attack on Ukraine's ships at the Kerch Strait entrance into the Sea of Azov has had an international response that he did not quite expect.

As reported by Ryan Browne,

"The US has begun making the necessary preparations to sail a warship into the Black Sea, a move that comes amid heightened tensions in the region following Russia's seizure of Ukrainian ships and detention of Ukrainian sailors.

The US military has requested that the State Department notify Turkey of its possible plans to sail a warship into the Black Sea, three US officials tell CNN, a move they said is a response to Russia's actions against Ukraine in the Kerch Strait, which connects the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov." (CNN : 5 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

We now also have more NATO ships patrolling in the Black Sea.

As reported by Daniel McLaughlin,

"Mr Stoltenberg (left) [ Head of NATO] noted that ships under Nato command have spent 120 days in the Black Sea this year compared with 80 last year, as it continues to strengthen its presence in the region “in response to Russia’s aggressive actions” of recent years.

“So there is already a lot of Nato in the Black Sea. And we will continue to assess our presence in the region,” he added." (The Irish Times : 4 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

"A US Air Force OC-135 observation aircraft conducted an "extraordinary flight" Thursday under the Open Skies treaty "to reaffirm US commitment to Ukraine" amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, the Pentagon said.

The Defense Department said US, Canadian, German, French, United Kingdom, Romanian and Ukrainian observers were aboard the aircraft during the observation flight. This flight was requested by the Arms Control Directorate of the Ukrainian General Staff." (Ryan Browne : CNN : 6 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

In an ominous development, Matt Drake reports that,

"Deadly Russian submarine rushed to border as WW3 tensions reach BREAKING POINT

The Kilo-class submarine, dubbed the "Black Hole" due to its ability to disappear suddenly, has been snapped leaving the major Black Sea port of Sevastopol." (Daily Star : 7 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

This was followed by that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,reacting negatively to a suggestion by German foreign minister, Heiko Mass, that the Osce monitoring mission should extend to the Sea of Azov.

As reported by Yuras Karmanau and Nataliya Vasilyeva,

"[Lavrov (right) retorted by] saying that Russia “has no need” for any intermediaries or monitors in the area." (Independent IE (Associated Press) : 7 December, 2018) (my emphasis)

This rapid escalation of events in the Black Sea has now been further compounded by the fact that,

"Ukraine’s defence ministry has warned Russia it will soon send navy ships through the Kerch Strait where Russia fired on and seized three Ukrainian vessels two weeks ago.

The announcement sets up another possible flashpoint in the long-simmering conflict between Russia and Ukraine that erupted in 2014 with Russia’s annexation of the Crimean peninsula ...." (Breaking News (Press Association) : 7 December,2018) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that just before he was elected president of Russia, Putin boasted about his nuclear arsenal.

In an interview (March, 2018) with Megyn Kelly, just before he was once more given the keys to the Kremlin, Putin stated that,

"We have two reasons that would force us to respond using our nuclear weapons.

• The first is a nuclear attack against us, or 
• An attack against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, but in this case, if it's a very threat to the existence of the Russian State

YouTube March 2018

Does Putin now view the sending of NATO and US warships to the Black Sea, and the conducting of  an "extraordinary flight" Thursday under the Open Skies treaty "to reaffirm US commitment to Ukraine" amid Russia-Ukraine tensions, a very threat to the existence of the Russian State?

Putin's finger is now hovering over his nuclear button.

(to be continued)