Is war with Ukraine now Putin's only weapon against Ukraine that he has in his armoury?

In November of last year, Tucker Higgins reported that,

"Senior Russian officials publicly chided (video below) U.S. President Donald Trump following his announcement on Thursday that he would no longer meet with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during the G-20 summit of world leaders in Argentina.

 Russians Chiding Trump for cancelling meeting with Putin (YouTube)

Trump announced the cancellation via Twitter, citing Russia's seizure of two Ukrainian gunboats and a tugboat in the Kerch Strait, a shared zone which sits between Ukraine and Russia. He said his decision "would be best for all parties concerned." (CNBC : Fri, 30 Nov 2018) (my emphasis)

It now transpires that Trump did, indeed, have a very private tête-à-tête with Putin, with only Melania Trump (left) and a Russian translator present.

No American officials were present at this 15+ minute "private" chat between Trump and Putin, so why Melania ?

Is it just possible that Melania has a basic understanding of Russian, and that Trump wanted her "private translation" after this meeting?

As Rachel Maddow also states,

"What do you do , as a National Security matter, with the fact that the President, apparently, still insists on maintaining, effectively, a secret line of communication with the Kremlin?" (MSNBC : 29 Jan., 2019) (my emphasis)

What is significant about this meeting is the fact that Trump publicly stated that the reason for him cancelling a meeting between himself and Putin at the G20 Summit was,

"...Russia's seizure of two Ukrainian gunboats and a tugboat in the Kerch Strait, a shared zone which sits between Ukraine and Russia." (cf. Tucker Higgins)

Yet again has the "Scarlet Thread of  Maidan", that tightly binds Trump and Putin together, surfaced.
 
It has now also emerged that US Congress-woman Jackie Speer has revealed that US Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, had a financial relationship with Leonid Blavatnik, who also has a BIG STAKE in the Rusal Aluminium company of Oleg Deripaska (right), against which sanctions were recently lifted. (MSNBC : 29 Jan., 2019)

As Congress-woman Jackie Speer (left) states,

"... Leonid Blavatnik is a significant shareholder in Rusal, which is Deripaska's company. That company, once sanctions were imposed, dropped like a stone. Once the sanctions were lifted, it increased by some 24% in terms of the stock price." (MSNBC : 29 Jan., 2019) (my emphasis)

So the popping of champagne corks by Deripaska, as US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin lifted the US sanctions on Rusal, may be rather short lived.

Given the closeness of the friendship between Putin and Deripaska, (and Putin and Trump), is it possible that the re-instatement of sanctions against Deripaska's companies, and the revealing of that "private conversation" between Trump and Putin at the G20 Summit, may push Putin over the edge to invade Ukraine?

Or is Putin now more determined that ever to emasculate the upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine ,

"... Hoping to remove Petro Poroshenko from top office in Ukraine and aiming to bring to power a less anti-Russian parliament, the report says, Russia seeks to exploit such issues existing in Ukraine as unsustainable economy, widespread corruption, cyber vulnerabilities, and public discontent." (UNIAN : 29 Jan., 2019) (my emphasis)

Putin continues to keep his war with Ukraine simmering, as evidenced by the fact that,

"Russian-led forces mounted eight attacks on Ukrainian troops in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, in the past 24 hours." (UNIAN : 30 Jan., 2019) (my emphasis)

Since his methods of election-interference during the 2016 US presidential elections have being publicly exposed, Putin is well aware that the international public will be on the look-out for his interference in the upcoming elections in Ukraine.

This weapon, which he so successfully wielded in the 2016 US presidential elections, has been blunted.

So the question remains,

"Is war with Ukraine now Putin's only weapon against Ukraine that he has in his armoury?"

 

(to be continued)

"Is Putin readying for fresh attacks against Ukraine?"

As Trump's world continues to implode, with mounting evidence that Putin has Trump in his pocket, Putin is positioning his 'nuclear' arsenal against Ukraine, whilst in the background, as reported by UAWire,

"[German Foreign Minister Heiko] Maas (left) asserted that the construction of the disputed Nord Stream 2 from Russia to Germany will not be stopped even by the US sanctions. "No one can disrupt this project. US sanctions can lead to the withdrawal of Western companies from it, including German concerns." (UAWire : 18 January,2019) (my emphasis)

Recall that as recently as January 11th, Heiko Maas also stated that,

"U.S. sanctions against the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be the wrong way to solve a dispute over energy supply, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said on Thursday." (FirstPost :11 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Heiko Mass is not alone in supporting Putin's attack on the economy of Ukraine through Nord Stream 2.

As reported by Xinhua News,

"Germany's Economy Minister Peter Altmaier (right with Dmitry Medvedev) reaffirmed his support on Friday for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project and told the German press agency (dpa) that "the German government has an obligation not to intervene arbitrarily in such business projects."" (Xinhua News :18 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

 DW:

Meanwhile, UNIAN reports that,

"CEO of NJSC Naftogaz of Ukraine Andriy Kobolyev (left) has said the European Parliament chaired by Romania can make a decision that will stop the construction of the second line of the Turkish Stream and Nord Stream 2 gas pipelines. 

"We are cautiously optimistic about the fact that Romania, which currently holds the presidency, may consider the issue. I have repeatedly talked with European parliamentarians. There is a clear understanding that Nord Stream 2 is exclusively in the interest of Germany and unlikely in the interest of other EU countries." (UNIAN : 18 January, 2019) (my emphasis)


Whether the European Parliament can stymie the determination of German Foreign Minister Haas, and German Economics Minister Altmaier, to ensure that the completion of Nord Steam 2, and the subsequent flow of Putin's gas through Nord Stream 2 and into Germany, stays on track, remains to be seen.

The unwavering stand taken by Haas and Altmaier simply mirrors the mutually beneficial stand taken by Germany and Russia immediately after WW1, and the Molotov Ribbentrop pact, just prior to the start of WW2.

As Article 5 of the 1922 "Treaty of Rapallo" states,

"Article 5
 
The two Governments [Germany and Russia] shall co-operate in a spirit of mutual goodwill in meeting the economic needs of both countries. In the event of a fundamental settlement of the above question on an international basis, an exchange of opinions shall previously take place between the two Governments. The German Government, having lately been informed of the proposed agreements of private firms, declares its readiness to give all possible support to these arrangements and to facilitate their being carried into effect.",  

we can thus expect the German government to simply over-ride the European Parliament, should they decide that the construction of Nord Stream 2 be halted.

To cover their backs should the EU parliament decide against Nord Stream 2, German Foreign Minister Haas is again trying to revive the 'dead horse' of Minsk2.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Germany's Minister of Foreign Affairs Heiko Maas says new dynamics are needed in the Minsk peace talks to resolve the situation in Donbas, eastern Ukraine. "This is extremely necessary," he said at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart Pavlo Klimkin in Kyiv on January 18, according to an UNIAN correspondent." (UNIAN : 19 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

 One should now ask the question,

"Is Maas aware that, as reported by Yonat Friling, that,

"Satellite images shot Thursday and obtained exclusively by Fox News have revealed a new Russian deployment of Iskander missile batteries and launchers near the border with Ukraine."? (Fox News : 18 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that,

"Lieutenant General Serhiy Nayev (left), commander of Ukraine’s joint forces combatting Russian aggression in the country’s east, is convinced Moscow is readying for fresh attacks against Ukraine, but is confident that his forces will be able to counter any Russian actions."KyivPost : 18 January, 2019) (my emphasis)


Let us cast our minds back to July of 2014 when Sergey Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Sovet foreign minister, stated that,

“If it comes to aggression against Russian territory, which Crimea and Sevastopol are parts of, I would not advise anyone to do this.” He then added, “We have the doctrine of national security, and it very clearly regulates the actions, which will be taken in this case.”

This is a not-so-subtle threat to use nuclear weapons to retain Crimea." (Zachary Keck : The Diplomat : 11 July, 2014) (my emphasis)

In March of 2015 it was also reported that,

"President Vladimir Putin has said he was ready to put Russia's nuclear weapons on standby during tensions over the crisis in Ukraine and Crimea." (BBC News : 15 March, 2015) (my emphasis)

 And on Thursday, 2nd April, 2015, Ian Johnston reported that,

"Russia has threatened to use “nuclear force” to defend its annexation of Crimea and warned that the “same conditions” that prompted it to take military action in Ukraine exist in the three Baltic states, all members of Nato." (The Independent : 2nd April, 2015) (my emphasis)

More recently (2018), Jens Stoltenberg, General Secretary of NATO, warned against Putin moving Iskander missile batteries towards the Ukrainian border. (NATO Foreign Ministers Meeting)

Also reported by UNIAN,

"Russia's hybrid military forces have violated the ceasefire in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, twice since Friday morning. "They attacked our defenders' strongholds twice, using grenade launchers of various systems, large-caliber machine guns ... " (UNIAN : Friday 18 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

All of which raises the question,

"Is Putin readying for fresh attacks against Ukraine?"

(to be continued)

How much longer will Merkel continue to cover Putin's economic back?

There is an old saying that, "The Truth Always Bubbles To The Surface"

And so it is that the intimate relationship between 'Manchurian Candidate' Trump, and his handler Putin, is being revealed for all the world to see.
 

As reported by Greg Miller (right),

"President Trump has gone to extraordinary lengths to conceal details of his conversations with Russian President Vladi­mir Putin, including on at least one occasion taking possession of the notes of his own interpreter and instructing the linguist not to discuss what had transpired with other administration officials, current and former U.S. officials said.

Former U.S. officials said that Trump’s behavior is at odds with the known practices of previous presidents, who have relied on senior aides to witness meetings and take comprehensive notes then shared with other officials and departments." (Washington Post : 12 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

 MSNBC (12 January, 2018)

These public revelations further underscore the 'quid pro quo' agreement between Putin and Trump, that ultimately led to Trump occupying the White House.

And the pivot around which this 'quid pro quo' revolves is the removal of US sanctions against Putin and his Kremlin 'siloviki', sanctions which were imposed primarily because of Putin's annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, and his ongoing war with Ukraine.

(IMPORTANT UPDATE 14 JAN.,2019) MSNBC

One need look no further than at the recent reporting (11 Jan., 2019) of the attempt by Trump's Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin (left), to release Oleg Deripaska, one of Putin's closest 'siloviki' comrades, from some of the critical sanctions imposed upon him.

As Alan Rappeport (right) reports,

"The Trump administration on Thursday defended its decision to lift sanctions on companies linked to the billionaire Russian oligarch Oleg V. Deripaska, despite deep concerns from newly empowered House Democrats that the move was an effort by President Trump to help an ally of President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia." (New York Times : 10 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

As Rachel Maddow also reports,

 MSNBC (11 January, 2019)

Yet again do we see just how the Scarlet Thread of the 2014 Maidan revolution of 2014 squeezed Putin and Trump tightly together.

And in Europe the economic ties between Germany and Putin's Russia continues to flourish, to the consternation of many EU members.

As Willem Aldershoff reported,

"Debate continues over whether Nord Stream 2, the undersea gas pipeline nearing completion between Russia and Germany, is a genuinely commercial project. Yet some voices in the debate have been heard louder than others." (Financial Times : November 30, 2018) (my emphasis)

As also reported by Firstpost (Reuters),

"U.S. sanctions against the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline would be the wrong way to solve a dispute over energy supply, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas (left) said on Thursday.
 ...
"Questions of European energy policy must be decided in Europe, not in the U.S.," Maas said. "To impose unilateral sanctions against Nord Stream 2 is certainly not the way to go." (Firstpost : 13 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Notwithstanding the strident argument of Putinversteher German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, that the Nord Stream 2 contract between Putin and German business companies is purely economic and has nothing to do with Putin attempting to squeeze Ukraine economically, Nick Cunningham (right) reports that,

"Support for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in Germany is slipping, according to a report from Bloomberg. Some politicians in Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition are moving against the pipeline for geopolitical reasons, citing fears that the project would allow Russia a freer hand in Ukraine." (Oil Price : 8 January, 2018) (my emphasis)

As I wrote in my last blog entry (9 January, 2019),

"One can now safely say that Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!

The completion of the Nord Stream2 project is now more critical for Putin as the US House of Congress begins to block Trump's attempt to remove US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique." (cf. also Alan Rappeport above)

How long, now, will Merkel be able to continue with her pretense that Nord Stream2 is a purely economic relationship between herself and Putin?

And whilst Merkel continues with this political pretense, RFERL reports that,

"A surveillance drone operated by monitors for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in eastern Ukraine has been shot down near the government-controlled village of Popasna in the Luhansk region.

The incident occurred on January 10, according to a report by the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to Ukraine published the next day. " (RFERL : 12 January, 2018)

Just how much longer will the economic Jackboots of German businessmen continue to march over Ukraine into Putin's Russia?

How much longer will Merkel cover Putin's economic back?

(to be continued)

Putin, like Trump, now finds himself caught between a rock and a hard pace.

As the Trump presidency continues to implode, Putin's payback for helping Trump gain the keys to the White House has taken yet another nosedive.

There is an old Russian saying that a "fish rots from the head". And so it is that Trump, the Manchurian Candidate that Putin caught, is now beginning to 'rot from the head', and with it Putin's payback of the lifting of US sanctions against himself and his Kremlin 'siloviki' clique for giving Trump the keys to the White House.

We now learn that the attempted lifting of US sanctions against Putin and his clique have encountered a stumbling block since the Democrats gained control of the US Congress.

As Adam Schiff (right), the incoming Chairman of the US House of Congress 'Intelligence Committee' states,
 
"It certainly now is a consistent portrait that we are getting from Veselnitskaya that that meeting in Trump Tower, the work on the Magnistky Act,her effort to do away with the sanctions that we have imposed upon the Russians ... This is being done as a part of her work on the part of the Russian government, and of course, that raises the stakes for that meeting in Trump Tower." (MSNBC : 8 Jan., 2019)

MSNBC 

And as Rachel Maddow reports,

 "We got further word today that the Chairs of 7 major committees in Congress are now challenging Trump's Treasury Secretary over a Trump administration decision that was just announced before Congress to lift sanctions on companies associated with  ... Oleg Deripaska [a member of Putin's inner-circle]..."(MSNBC : 8 Jan., 2019)

MSNBC 

Which rather once again throws into sharp relief, the adamant German excuse that Nord Stream2 is merely an "economic" project that has NOTHING to do with Putin's war with Ukraine, a view simply not accepted by many members of the EU who want its construction DELAYED as part of the EU sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique.

As I wrote in a recent blog entry (2/1/2019),


"The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman (left), is correct in stating that,

"... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a form of a disguised war against Europe and European consumers. “Nord Stream 2 is a form of disguised war against Europe. We know what it is to be dependent on Russia in energy. We know from our own experience how dangerous it is. Therefore, we are now considering the project as Russia's geopolitical weapon,” Groysman said, adding that Ukraine’s preservation of the status of a priority gas transit country is of great “significance in terms of security and politics" for all of Europe.” (UNIAN : 2nd January, 2019) (my emphasis)

One can now safely say that the Putinversteher Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!"

The completion of the Nord Stream2 project is now more critical for Putin as the US House of Congress begins to block Trump's attempt to remove US sanctions against Putin and his 'siloviki' clique.

Coupled with the fact that,

“Oil is flip-flopping on concerns of supply and demand,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “It’s really a battle between the supply situation, which looks to be tightening, versus the possibility that demand will drop off.”
.....
Riyadh was expected to cut February prices for heavier crude grades sold to Asia due to weaker fuel oil margins while reducing prices for light grades to keep Saudi oil competitive against rising U.S. shale oil supplies, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday." (Alex Lawler (left): Reuters : 4 January, 2019) (my emphasis)",

Putin, like Trump, now finds himself caught between a rock and a hard pace.

(to be continued)

Will Putin now opt for the 'German blitzkrieg' strategy of Hitler and attack Mariupol?

In my last blog entry (2 January, 2019)I wrote that,

"Now that the Democratic Party is within a few hours short of taking full control of the US House of Congress, and with it full oversight over Trump's actions, Putin realizes that his 'Manchurian' hold over Trump is now counter-balanced by the incoming Democratic oversight over his 'Manchurian' Trump." (blog entry : 2 Jan., 2019)


And in an interview, the new Speaker of the US House of Congress, Nancy Pelosi, stated that the impeachment of Trump is now an open question. 

 MSNBC (3 January, 2019)

Even more significant, the 'Manchurian' hold that Putin has over Trump is now also bubbling to the surface.

Yesterday (3 January, 2019), Rachel Maddow reported 'strange' instances when Trump, since the start of his presidency, publicly mouthed Putin's pro-Russian propaganda.

And NOW it has just happened again!

 MSNBC (3 January, 2019)

This must be causing Putin some consternation since, as also reported by UNIAN,

"Leader of the People's Front Party Arseniy Yatsenyuk says Nancy Pelosi, the newly elected speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, is "Ukraine's true friend."
...
 "At our last meeting in September 2018, we talked a lot about the prospects of Ukrainian-American cooperation. We are united by strong belief in the success of our partnership," he said. (UNIAN : 4 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which, Ukraine's Ambassador to the United States Valeriy Chaly (right), stated that,

"Ukraine expects arms supplies, including lethal weapons, from the United States in 2019.
...
"We are working together now. The Strategic Partnership Commission considers all issues, including military and technical cooperation, cooperation on security issues," he said. (UNIAN : 3 January,2019) (my emphasis)

These are not the only worries of Putin.

It is now being reported that,

"Russia has once again postponed the commissioning of the railway service via the Kerch Strait bridge over miscalculations in the blueprints of railway approaches to the bridge linking the Russian-occupied Crimean peninsula with mainland Russia.
...
THERE WERE ROCK SHIFTS IN THE TUNNEL!" (UNIAN : 4 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

Added to which,

“Oil is flip-flopping on concerns of supply and demand,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “It’s really a battle between the supply situation, which looks to be tightening, versus the possibility that demand will drop off.”
.....
Riyadh was expected to cut February prices for heavier crude grades sold to Asia due to weaker fuel oil margins while reducing prices for light grades to keep Saudi oil competitive against rising U.S. shale oil supplies, a Reuters survey showed on Thursday." (Alex Lawler (right): Reuters : 4 January, 2019) (my emphasis)

These developments underscore the reporting by Jamie Dettmer (left), that,


"Ukrainian officials are warning that Russia may be about to escalate its conflict with Ukraine, including possibly launching a breakout offensive from Crimea.
....
“Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean peninsula and the East,” the institute has reported. It says Russia could conduct such operations on short notice." (VOA: ! January, 2019) (my emphasis).

Given that Putin has once again had to postpone the commissioning of the railway service via the Kerch Strait bridge, thus limiting the speed with which he can pour Russian troops and armaments into Ukraine's Crimea, will Putin now opt for the 'German blitzkrieg' strategy of Hitler and attack Mariupol?

(to be continued)

To regain his popularity in Russia, will Putin light the touchpaper of all-out war with Ukraine?

In the first two years of the 'Manchurian-Candidate' Trump presidency, Putin strutted the world stage as he flexed his 'nuclear' muscles and escalated his war with Ukraine, as evidenced by his Kerch strait attack on Ukrainian ships, the buildup of his nuclear weaponry in Ukraine's Crimea, and the further consolidation of his forces along Ukraine's border.

Now that the Democratic Party is within a few hours short of taking full control of the US House of Congress, and with it full oversight over Trump's actions, Putin realizes that his 'Manchurian' hold over Trump is now counter-balanced by the incoming Democratic oversight over his 'Manchurian' Trump.

So, as reported by Jamie Dettmer (left),

"Ukrainian officials are warning that Russia may be about to escalate its conflict with Ukraine, including possibly launching a breakout offensive from Crimea.
....
“Russia continues to build up and prepare its military forces for possible offensive operations against Ukraine from the Crimean peninsula and the East,” the institute has reported. It says Russia could conduct such operations on short notice." (VOA: ! January, 2019) (my emphasis)

UNIAN similarly reports that,

"The Russian-led occupation forces continue massing heavy weapons in the area near the Russian occupied city of Luhansk in Donbas, eastern Ukraine, and conduct live-fire exercises, preparing for active hostilities." (UNIAN : 30 Dec., 2018) (my emphasis) (cf also: OSCE report 29 Dec., 2018)

And whilst Putin is gearing up his naval and armed forces for an invasion of Ukraine, Paul Carrell (left) reports that,

"U.S. President Donald Trump’s criticism of the Russian-backed Nord Stream 2 pipeline is no reason to stop the project and any attempt to do so would be difficult now that it is being built, [Germany's] European Commissioner Guenther Oettinger said.
...
Germany refuses to join opposition to the project from many EU states and - thus far - from the EU executive, describing it as a private enterprise." (Reuters : 28 December, 2018) (my emphasis)


The Prime Minister of Ukraine, Volodymyr Groysman (left), is correct in stating that,

"... the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project a form of a disguised war against Europe and European consumers. “Nord Stream 2 is a form of disguised war against Europe. We know what it is to be dependent on Russia in energy. We know from our own experience how dangerous it is. Therefore, we are now considering the project as Russia's geopolitical weapon,” Groysman said, adding that Ukraine’s preservation of the status of a priority gas transit country is of great “significance in terms of security and politics" for all of Europe.” (UNIAN : 2nd January, 2019) (my emphasis)

One can now safely say that the Putinversteher Angela Merkel, together with the German business community is, and always has been, covering Putin's economic back, irrespective of Gazprom being a critical factor in Putin's war with Ukraine!

And whilst Putin continues to flex his Russian military and German political-economic muscles, ordinary Russia people are beginning to publicly express their growing dislike of his actions at home.

As reported by Echo msk., Putin's [2019] New Year address to the Russian people

 Дорогие россияне поставили президенту массу дизлайков в YouTube. На странице «России-1» новогоднее обращение получило около тысячи «лайков» и более 4 тысяч «дизлайков», то есть знаков одобрения и неодобрения соответственно.

У обращения на «Первом канале – 12 тысяч «лайков», а «дизлайков» — больше 66 тысяч. Это притом, что по декабрьским данным ВЦИОМа, деятельность президента одобряет почти 65% россиян, а количество «лайков» легко накрутить с помощью прокремлевских ботов.

" (Google Translate) ... have put a lot of dizlik on YouTube to the president. On the Russia-1 page, the New Year's appeal received about a thousand “likes” and more than 4 thousand “dislikes”, that is, signs of approval and disapproval, respectively.

The appeal on Channel One has 12 thousand likes, and the dislikes have more than 66 thousand. This is despite the fact that according to the December data of the VTsIOM, the president’s activities are approved by almost 65% of Russians, and the number of “likes” is easily crafted using pro-Kremlin bots." (Echo msk. : 1st January, 2019) (my emphasis) (cf also: Paul Goble: 1 January, 2019)

As the people of Russia continue to suffer the privations brought upon them by Putin placing his ego and the continued enrichment of his 'siloviki' clan above that of the daily deprivations that this has caused for the Russian people, what does 2019 have in store for the Russian people?

To regain his standing among the people of Russia, will he finally light the touchpaper of all-out war with Ukraine?

(to be continued)