Independence Day, instituted in 1991 and celebrated on the 24 August each year, is the main state holiday in Ukraine.
Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.
On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.
And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)
And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,
"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)
In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years. This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.
Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.
As reported by Kareem Salem,
"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)
Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?
As reported by the South China Morning Post,
"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)
Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?
Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,
"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.
"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)
Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.
Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,
"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)
Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.
If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.
If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.
If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.
For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.
Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!
As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that,
“We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)
Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.
How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?
(to be continued)
No wonder he remarks in his interview,
"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."
(to be continued)
Normally this day would have been accompanied by a military parade, reminiscent of Putin's May Day military parade.
On 10 July 2019, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Facebook that the 2019 Ukrainian Independence Day celebrations will not include a military parade.And on 30 July, Zelensky's Head of the Presidential Administration Andriy Bohdan announced that a March of Dignity (Марш гідності) will take place in replacement of the annual parade. A separate march, known as the March of Defenders (Марш захисників) was also planned to be held by Ukrainian war veterans. (Wikipedia) (my emphasis)
And recently, as reported by Ukrinform,
"To preserve independence, to end the war, to launch economic and geopolitical growth gaining more influence to be a global player, and to organize spectacular Independence Day celebrations in all cities of the country as we will mark the 30th anniversary of independence," Zelensky outlined the tasks for the next year in an interview with Ukraine 24 TV channel." (Ukrinform :24 August 2020) (my emphasis)In other words, Zelensky is determined to achieve within the next 12 months what has not been achieved within the last 6 years. This achievement will take place during the corona-virus pandemic now sweeping the world and, more significantly, during the eruption of the Minsk "Maidan", the Belarussian movement to get rid of Lukashenko, now sweeping across Belarus.
DW News: Youtube : 23 August 2020
Like Yanukovich before him Lukashenko, the President of Belarus for the last 26 years, is calling upon Putin to help him against the Belarussians wishing to oust him from office.
As reported by Kareem Salem,
"Mass protests in Belarus have prompted Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko (left: Lukashenko and Yanukovich) to solicit Russia’s help, giving Putin the opportunity to influence the course of events." (E-International Relations : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)Does Zelensky's optimism about ending Putin's war with Ukraine against this pandemic and political backdrop stem from that tête-à-tête phone call he had with Putin just prior to the 'ceasefire' on 26 July 2020?
As reported by the South China Morning Post,
"President Volodymyr Zelensky on Sunday welcomed efforts to resolve Ukraine’s conflict with Kremlin-backed separatists during a phone call with Russian leader Vladimir Putin shortly before a ceasefire went into force on Monday." (South China Morning Post : 27 July 2020) (my emphasis)Was this another Zelensky "quid-pro-quo" call with a President, like the one that he had with Trump in July of 2019? Will we ever know?
Perhaps we are given a hint by the fact that,
"President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky said that an agreement on a meeting in the Normandy format at the level of advisers to the heads of states has already been reached. He said this in an exclusive interview with the Ukraine 24 TV channel.
"We agreed at the end of August, the 28th. Then, I think, there should still be a meeting of the foreign ministers of the quartet and then a meeting of the leaders," Zelensky said." (112 UA TV : 22 August 2020) (my emphasis)
Zelensky should tread cautiously in thinking that a meeting between himself, Merkel, Putin, and Macron, will be the 'silver bullet' that will allow him to end Putin's war with Ukraine.
Zelensky should be aware that, as Kareem Salem points out,
"In leading from the front, Macron needs to press Putin to compromise the restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty over its eastern border in exchange for guaranteed rights and protection of Russian speaking minorities in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblast. This is important for French diplomacy, considering that Paris has not been able to find broad support among its eastern European allies for a European reset in relations with Russia. (ibid Salem) (my emphasis)Let us recall that Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2014, and his illegal annexation of Ukraine's Crimea, was based upon the very reasoning that Macron is now espousing as a prelude to ending Putin's war with Ukraine.
Vox: Youtube 2 September 2014
If Zelensky should be concerned about Macron's agenda at the next Normandy Format meeting, he should be even more concerned about the outcome of the 2020 US Presidential elections.
If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.
If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament.
For Putin, a Biden win will be akin to a nuclear bomb exploding in his face.
Already he is preparing the Russian people of such a possible outcome by disseminating propaganda against Biden, even ON RUSSIAN TV!
As also reported by Martin Matishak, Bill Evanina (left), director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, stated that, “We assess that Russia is using a range of measures to primarily denigrate former Vice President Biden and what it sees as an anti-Russia ‘establishment,’” Bill Evanina, director of the National Counterintelligence and Security Center, said in a statement." (Politico : 7 August 2020) (my emphasis)
Either way, Zelensky is in for a rough political ride.
How will he negotiate these political rapids that he is heading towards?
STOP PRESS!!!
In a recent interview with EuroNews, Zelensky revealed that,- With just a few months to go, I asked him what the current situation was - and what progress has been achieved in this one year deadline?
He insisted it was moving forward:
"It is moving, but not as fast as I expected. But now there's a ceasefire. There will be a Normandy format meeting. - "When it comes to Crimea, the situation is even more complicated, I think.
"I will tell you honestly, I have thought a lot about it. In the Normandy format, no one wants to talk about Crimea, especially Russia. I raised this issue. But we have dedicated all the time to Donbass.
"Russia does not want to talk about it and I am not afraid of saying that, we all understand it.
- "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
"As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me…. - I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
"Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July).
"We discussed the complicated issues in respecting the ceasefire.
"So far, there is a result of this dialogue and we see it. It is not enough. I am not afraid of the direct dialogue with Russia’s president. I think that is the right thing to do.
"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this.
- I asked him if the situation in the east had priority over Crimea:
"Both issues are a priority. The only thing about the situation in the east, people are dying there. So with this particular human factor, for me personally this is in first place.
"But they are at the same level, because both territories are ours, they have to come back."
I asked him when they would come back:
"You know how they sometimes say in movies, 'You'll be the first one to find out!'” - "With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (EuroNews: 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)
No wonder he remarks in his interview,
"If we have a possibility to talk and the results of those talks can help move forward toward ending the war, it has to be done, no matter how different people or different regions react to this."
(to be continued)
