It is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on... Putin's or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Roman Olearchyk (left) reports that,

"Ukraine’s drive to tackle corruption, a key demand of the IMF, has been thrown into doubt after a top court ruled that the country’s main anti-graft body was set up in breach of the constitution.
....

The court gave legislators three months to change a handful of clauses in a 2014 law that established NABU. However, members of Ukraine’s oligarch-influenced parliament have strongly criticised the
body and its probes into political corruption. Anti-graft campaigners fear MPs may try to amend the legislation to take control of appointments and rein in the watchdog.
 

“There is an ongoing targeted destruction of the system of independent anti-corruption institutions in Ukraine,” Mr Poroshenko said on Thursday." (Financial Times : 17 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Vlagyiszlav Makszimov (left) also informs us that,

 "NABU has said the cases against it are politically motivated.

The bureau has recently made public a series of allegations against a ring of judges who “planned to seize state power”, with Pavlo Vovk, (right) the head of the Kyiv administrative court, at its centre.

NABU has released tape recordings that it says contain the voice of Vovk and fellow judges conspiring to influence other courts and government bodies through corrupt rulings. Vovk has denied the allegations." (Euractiv : 18 September 2020) (my emphasis)

This new case has been brought before the court by a group 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life. 

These developments in Ukraine have not gone unnoticed.

 Schengenvisainfo informs us that,

"Ukraine risks losing its visa-free regime with Schengen Area countries and 1.5 billion financial support from the EU, after its government’s decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO).
......
Von Cramon-Taubadel urged Ukraine to protect its anti-corruption agencies, so the country does not lose its visa-free regime with the EU." (Schengenvisainfo : 21 September 2020) (my emphasis)

 Zelensky, however,

"...  said that the possible abolition of the visa-free regime are rumours, while he stressed that the commission would choose a professional SAPO leader." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

Whether rumours or not, Zelensky should take note of the fact that,

“The European Union and the United States take note of the Ukrainian parliament’s decision to appoint members to the commission to choose the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor. The commission needs to embark on a transparent process with candidates’ integrity and merits at its core. Our further support will depend upon it,” the statement of the US’ Embassy reads." (ibid Schengenvisainfo)

And whilst Zelensky (with the support of 50 MPs, mostly from the pro-Russian faction Opposition Platform — For Life) upholds the decision to appoint a commission that does not meet legal criteria to select candidates for the positions of the head of the Specialized Anti-Corruption Prosecutor’s Office (SAPO), adding to his woes is the emerging news that Putin is behind the attempt by some Ukrainian politicians to gather dirt on Biden, Trump's nemesis candidate in the upcoming US presidential elections.
 
As reported by Dominick Mastrangelo,

"American intelligence agencies believe Russian President Vladimir Putin is behind a disinformation campaign targeting Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, according to a new report.

A top-secret CIA assessment concluded Ukrainian lawmaker Andriy Derkach (left) engaged in peddling "disparaging information about Biden inside the United States through lobbyists, Congress, the media and contacts with figures close to the president," two sources with knowledge of the report told The Washington Post." (The Hill :22 September 2020) (my emphasis)

Yet just a few days ago, as reported by Emily Shugerman (right),

"Faced with a U.S. Treasury Department report linking him to a Russian agent, Rudy Giuliani [Trump's current lawyer and fixer] defended himself Saturday by claiming he had no idea that Ukrainian lawmaker and conspiracy-peddler Andriy Derkach was a foreign operative." (The Daily Beast : 12 September 2020) (my emphasis)

MSNBC (1) (2) (3) 22-23 September 2020

Try as he might, Zelensky simply cannot disentangle himself from the scarlet thread of the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Diginity that has tightly bound together Trump and Putin since the 2016 US presidential election up to the present day, and which now binds him together with Trump and Putin.

And with the US Presidential election soon to be upon us (8 weeks'), it is now time for Zelensky to decide exactly whose side he is on ... Putin or the 2014 Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

(to be continued)

The next Normandy Four meeting will be very interesting

 Tetiana Shevchuk reports that,

"On August 28, Ukraine’s Constitutional Court declared the 2015 appointment of Artem Sytnyk as director of the country’s National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) unconstitutional. The ruling, which was immediately dismissed as “politically motivated” by NABU officials, places the anti-corruption agency in legal limbo." (Atlantic Council : 1 Sepetember 2020) (my emphasis)

What is even more significant,

"President Zelenskyy is currently believed to be under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (my emphasis)

As she also points out,

"Recent examples of landmark reformist legislation that is now potentially at risk include the spring 2020 law on the sale of agricultural land and the so-called “Anti-Kolomoiskiy” Banking Law that was passed to prevent the oligarch from regaining ownership of his nationalized bank PrivatBank.

These two pieces of legislation were requirements in order to secure a new IMF program for Ukraine." (ibid Tetiana Shevchuk) (left: Kolomoiskiy) (my emphasis)

And in a recent and rare TV interview with Sasha Vakulina since becoming President of Ukraine, Zelensky categorically stated that,

• "How much more time is needed? I don’t know. I think the second Normandy format meeting means that there's a high chance of ending the war."
  
  I asked him when, which caused him to pause for a while.
  
  "As soon as possible. I want to believe that it will be this year. I really want to believe it and I DO believe, I do. If it was only up to me, if it depended only on me"                                
   
• I mentioned that his establishment of a direct dialogue with Russian President Vladimir Putin had caused controversy in Ukraine and asked him if he was still in touch with the Russian leader:
  
  "Yes I am, when it's needed. I have had a talk with the Russian president right before a ceasefire went into force (on 27 July). (Euronews : 25 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Euronews 25 August 2020

Zelensky's optimism about ending the war between Ukraine and Russia may have something to do with the fact that Vitold Fokin (left), the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group, stated that,

"Another important question is about pardon. On both sides, many crimes have been committed that should ultimately be investigated, and let the perpetrators be prosecuted. But today, in order to end the war and save the lives of soldiers and commanders, my position is to declare general pardon, hold elections, resolve the issue of the special status of certain regions, and best of all, the entire Donbas," UNIAN : 30 August 2020) (my emphasis)

Is this 'pardon strategy' going to be adopted by Zelenskiy?

And does this have anything to do with the recent call between Zelenskiy and EU President Ursula van den Leyen on the 28 August 2020?

During this call,

" ....[Zelenskiy and von den Leyen] exchanged views on the main issues of the Ukraine-EU agenda and further steps needed to strengthen the strategic partnership and deepen economic integration between Ukraine and the European Union." Ukrinform : 2 September 2020) (my emphasis)

And as Unian also reports,

"President Volodymyr Zelensky says Kyiv is making every effort to end the war in Donbas, expecting that the leaders of the Normandy Four countries (Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia) will gather for a summit after their advisors meet. The comment came during Zelensky's talks with President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen, (right) the president tweeted. "We very much want to maintain a comprehensive and permanent ceasefire and do everything to end the war," the president stressed." (Unian : 28 August 2020) (my emphasis)

In his, ".. do everything to end the war [in the Donbas]", does Zelenskiy INCLUDE the 'pardon strategy' of Vitold Fokin?

As he stated in his recent interview with Sasha Vakulina,

"With all the state leaders I meet, there is always something behind the scenes, always. That's normal, because there are lots of things that cannot be just told like this. Because some of them are strategic. Is there a Plan B or Plan C - yes there is. Can I tell you about it? No, I cannot. Why? because then it will not happen. It's as simple as that. It is just unnecessary information." (ibid ) (my emphasis)

We know that Ursula von den Leyen, like German Chancellor Merkel, is fully behind the completion of Nord Stream2. A quick resolution of the war between Putin and Ukraine will enable Nord Stream2 to be completed, notwithstanding the threat of US sanctions against EU companies involved in its completion.

Let us recall that in 2019,

"European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen on December 27 criticized new U.S. legislation that imposes sanctions on European companies building the Russian Nord Stream 2 natural-gas pipeline to Germany." (RFERL : 27 December 2019) (my emphasis)

Was Nord Stream2 on Ursula von den Leyen's mind whilst having that tête-à-tête call with Zelenskiy on 28 August 2020?

Zelenskiy seems to be politically jumping around like a cat on a hot tin roof.

On the one hand he has set his sights on ending Putin's war with Ukraine within a year.

On the other hand, his internal political decisions i.e.

• being under considerable pressure to dismiss Syntyk, despite the fact that he does not constitutionally have the authority to do so

• grappling with the 'pardon strategy' as outlined by Vitold Fokin , the recently appointed deputy head of the Ukrainian delegation at the Donbas settlement talks within the Trilateral Contact Group,

• having 'necessary' telephone tête-à-tête's with Putin,

leaves him open to accusations of betraying the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

And looming over the political horizon is the upcoming US presidential elections in November.

As I wrote in my last blog entry (24/8/2020),

"If Trump wins, the people of Ukraine should prepare themselves for the dismemberment of Ukraine into a state with huge federal autonomy, a state in which the Donbas will simply become another province of Putin's Russia.


If Biden wins, Zelensky will have to prepare himself for the possible return of Marie Yovanovitch (right), the nemesis of Ukraine's current oligarchs and, more importantly, of Putin's Ukrainian political cabal that sits in Ukraine's parliament."

The next Normandy Four meeting should be very interesting.

(to be continued)

STOP PRESS!!

The news that Alexei Navalny, now undergoing treatment in a Berlin hospital, has been poisoned by a Novichok agent, an agent that only the government in Putin's Russia controls, has now put pressure on Merkel to punish Putin by halting the completion of  the Nord Stream2 pipeline.

What is highly disconcerting for Putin is that these calls to halt the completion of this political pipeline is coming from Merkel's own supporters.

As Madeline Chambers reports,

"Pressure mounted on German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday to reconsider the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which will take gas from Russia to Germany, after she said Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny had been poisoned with a Soviet-style nerve agent. 

Western countries have condemned the attack and many German politicians want a tough response.

“We must pursue hard politics, we must respond with the only language (Russian President Vladimir) Putin understands - that is gas sales,” Norbert Roettgen, the conservative head of Germany’s parliamentary foreign affairs committee, said on Thursday.

Late on Wednesday he had said completion of Nord Stream 2 “would be the maximum confirmation and encouragement for Putin to continue this kind of politics”. (Reuters :3 September 2020) (my emphasis)

We now wait to see how this political development will affect the upcoming Normandy Four meeting.