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Thursday 26 November 2020

Zelensky wants to have a telephone tête-à-tête with Putin???

It's all over bar the shouting. Joe Biden, the nemesis of Putin and friend of Ukraine, has been formally acknowledged as the winner of the 2020 US presidential election.

Putin's Siamese twin, Donald Trump, continues to shake his tiny fists at the US electorate who voted for Joe Biden.

As reported by the BBC,

"Donald Trump has accepted a formal US transition should begin for President-elect Joe Biden to take office." (BBC : 24 November 2020) (my emphasis) 

MSNBC : 24 November 2020

 For Zelensky, Biden's win will now spur him on to act decisively in dealing with the corruption within the Constitutional Court which has abolished some anti-corruption laws to protect corrupt officials in Uraine's government.

As reported by RFERL,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

As now reported by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NACBU),

"The NABU Director [Artem Sytnyk] (left) spoke about the negative impact of the decisions of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine on the activities of the Bureau and the risks that a decision of the CCU regarding the High Anti-Corruption Court may have.
.....
Commenting on the decision of the Constitutional Court, Yaroslav Yurchyshyn, the Member of the Parliament, emphasized the importance of renewing responsibility for submitting false data to declarations and stopping the blocking of anti-corruption actions using the judiciary. “If this is not done till the end of the year, we will receive serious consequences: indulgence for undeclared income and serious complications of communication with European partners,” the Yaroslav Yurchyshyn said." (NACBU : 20 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as an added impetus for Zelensky to act decisively in boldly confronting Putin, UNIAN reports that,

"The latest meeting of the Trilateral Contact Group on Donbas settlement was the toughest one, says Serhiy Harmash, one of Ukraine's delegates to the Group. "They even got the ever so patient, diplomatic [Leonid] Kravchuk (right) mad!" Harmash noted.

He noted that the representatives of the occupied areas of Donbas (ORDLO) are not members of the TCG, and therefore it is impossible to consider at the Minsk negotiations any proposals they submit, including  [t]heir so-called settlement plan." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

UNIAN also reports that,

"Head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group (TCG) on Donbas Leonid Kravchuk has called on the Russian Federation to politically take charge of the fulfillment of the agreements reached by the Normandy Four leaders (Ukraine, Germany, France, Russia) at the Paris summit in December 2019." (UNIAN : 26 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Perhaps signs of Zelensky's state of panic lies in the fact that he  now     wishes to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin.

Unfortunately for him, notwithstanding that "Putin's Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov says the telephone conversation between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Putin, "can be easily coordinated if necessary."(UNIAN: 25 November 2020), Putin himself seems somewhat reluctant to confirm that such telephone conversations will take place.

Zelensky's belief that he can, somehow, reason with Putin, is his political Achilles heel. 

Like Trump, when confronted with failure, Putin lashes out and blames others for his failures. 

As reported by Daria Litvinova (right),

  • Russia’s health care system, vast yet underfunded, has been under significant strains in recent weeks, as the pandemic surges again and daily infections and virus death regularly break records.
  • A partial six-week coronavirus lockdown in March only added to long-brewing public frustrations over Russia's already weakened economy. 
  • Soon after that, Putin delegated the powers to impose virus-related restrictions to regional governors. Critics saw the move as an effort to inoculate himself from any more fallout over the pandemic." (Chron : 22 November 2020) (my emphasis)
And Zelensky wants to have a telephone  tête-à-tête with Putin???
 
(to be continued)

Sunday 8 November 2020

Zelensky is treading a dangerous path

As many American citizens heave a great sigh of relief that the nightmare of Trump's presidency is finally over Putin, on the other hand, is ensuring that when he finally steps down he will be totally immune from any form of prosecution for any of the criminal deeds that he perpetrated during his presidency. 


 As reported by Mary Ilyushina (left),

"Russian lawmakers submitted a draft bill that could grant former presidents lifelong immunity from criminal prosecution beyond their terms of office, state-run news agency TASS reported Thursday.
Such a bill would give current President Vladimir Putin protection from prosecution if and when he decides to leave office." (CNN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

She further reports that,

"The latest legislation comes a week after Putin submitted another bill under his constitutional reforms giving ex-presidents a lifetime seat in the upper house of the Russian parliament, the Federation Council." (ibid Mary Ilyushina) (my emphasis)

The rush in Putin's Russia to have this legislation approved may, just may, have something to do with the reporting that,

"Moscow sources close to Mr Putin have claimed the 68-year-old leader has begun developing symptoms of Parkinson’s, which affects the brain and can cause shaking and stiffness. Observers noted that Mr Putin is beginning to show signs of weakness in his hands, struggling to hold pens, as well as constantly twitching his leg. " (Dylan Donnelly (right): Express : 7 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Could it be that Biden's success in beating Trump, and the possibility that Putin has Parkinson's disease, may have been factored into Zelensky's announcement that,

"A video conference will be held next week of the advisors to the leaders of the Normandy Four states – Ukraine, Germany, France, and Russia, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced on Friday."? (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Furthermore,that elections could be held in the Spring of 2021 in the Donbas?

As reported by UNIAN,

"In Zelensky's opinion, if the Action Plan for Donbas De-occupation is implemented step-by-step, elections can be held in Donbas as early as the next spring." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

As UNIAN points out, the main points of Zelensky's Plan for Donbas De-occupation includes :-

  • Withdrawal of foreign troops, illegal armed groups, and mercenaries from the territory of Ukraine in early 2021;
  • Cancellation by Russian authorities of a number of decisions and acts that directly meddle in the affairs of the certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk regions, for example, on a simplified procedure for granting Russian citizenship to local residents;
  • Restoring control over the corresponding section of the Russian-Ukrainian state border with the help of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission;
  • A four-fold increase in the number of OSCE SMM representatives (by 1,500); and

    Only if the first four conditions are met –elections in the territories that are now temporarily occupied by Russian-controlled forces shall be prepared and conducted. (UNIAN : 5 November 2020)

The main points of Zelensky's "Action Plan" differ significantly from the First Four points in the  Minsk II proposals which state that :-l

  • Immediate and full ceasefire in particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine and its strict fulfillment 
  • Pull-out of all heavy weapons by both sides to equal distance with the aim of creation of a security zone on minimum 50 kilometres (31 mi) apart for artillery of 100mm calibre or more, and a security zone of 70 kilometres (43 mi) for multiple rocket launchers (MRLS) and 140 kilometres (87 mi) for MLRS Tornado-S, Uragan, Smerch, and Tochka U tactical missile systems: for Ukrainian troops, from actual line of contact; for armed formations of particular districts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts of Ukraine, from the contact line in accordance with the Minsk Memorandum as of 19 September 2014
  • The pullout of the above-mentioned heavy weapons must start no later than the second day after the start of the ceasefire and finish within 14 days.This process will be assisted by OSCE with the support of the Trilateral Contact Group.
  • Effective monitoring and verification of ceasefire regime and pullout of heavy weapons by OSCE will be provided from the first day of pullout, using all necessary technical means such as satellites, drones, radio-location systems etc.

When compared to the MinskII proposals, it is interesting to note that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is much less specific.

Indeed, Zelensky's "Action Plan" is nothing short of the relegation of the Minsk II proposals to the dustbin of history. 

Furthermore, it allows for Putin to drive a legal juggernaut of interpretation through phrases such as "directly meddle".

Even more disconcerting, as Maria Kucherenko (left) points out,

"When comparing the plan presented by Russia on behalf of the militants and the plan presented by the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the TCG and his deputy, we will see that these two projects are irreconcilable.  

But there is one serious reservation here: earlier, Russian proxies publicly indicated that the occupied areas of Donbas were preparing for local elections, which could be conducted in March. And it is important to make sure that this single coincidence and the will to comply with the deadline set by the Ukrainian delegation doesn't win over common sense or make us turn a blind eye to security issues." (UNIAN : 6 November 2020) (my emphasis)

Is it a coincidence that Putin's proxies in the Donbas are preparing for elections during the same time that Zelensky's "Action Plan" is also proposing that elections in the Donbas be held?

Once again we have to ask ourselves,

 "Exactly whose side is Zelensky on?" 

(to be continued)

Monday 2 November 2020

Can Zelensky redeem himself in the eyes of the Ukrainian people?

Today is the day before the critical US Presidential elections. That Putin is desperately trying to ensure a Trump victory is evidenced by the disturbing fact that,

 "Russian hackers are targeting hundreds of US hospitals and healthcare providers just as the coronavirus is making a comeback and the US presidential election is in its final stretch, officials from three government agencies and the private sector are warning.

The hackers typically use the TrickBot network of infected computers to penetrate the organizations and after further burrowing into their networks deploy Ryuk, a particularly aggressive piece of ransomware, a joint advisory published by the FBI, Health and Human Services, and the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security agency said." (Dan Goodin  (left): Ars Technica: 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

 The question that needs to be asked is,

"Is it beyond the near absolute power of Putin to unleash his FSB and other agencies to stop this heinous crime being perpetrated by Russian hackers against US hospitals?

At nearly the same time as Putin's hackers were targeting US hospitals, RFERL reports that,

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the Constitutional Court have clashed over a ruling to abolish some anti-corruption laws, as hundreds of protesters gathered in the streets of Kyiv over the decision.
...
In its ruling, the court said the punishment for false information on an official's asset declaration, as envisioned by the laws, was too harsh.

But Zelenskiy said the move could jeopardize vital international economic aid and called for lawmakers to dissolve the Constitutional Court because its decisions were "worthless." (RFERL : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

DW (29 October 2020)

 

The Chairman of Ukraine's Constitutional Court, Oleksandr Tupytsky (left), has retorted that Zelensky's dissolving of the CC,

".... has signs of a "constitutional coup," says CCU chair Oleksandr Tupytsky." (UNIAN : 30 October 2020) (my emphasis)

This is the same Oleksandr Tupytsky who,

"Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) Oleksandr Tupytsky did not include in his assets declaration a land plot in the village of Koreiz in Russia-occupied Crimea, which he bought under Russian law in 2018." (UNIAN : 29 October 2020) (my emphasis)

Zelensky is, however, caught in an EU legal vice.

According to the Council of Europe's European Commission for Democracy through Law (Venice Commission),

"Terminating the mandate of the judges [of the Ukrainian Constitutional Court] is in blatant breach of the Constitution and of the fundamental principle of separation of powers. Violating the Constitution, even if for an arguably good cause, cannot lead to a culture of constitutionalism and respect for the rule of law, which the fight against corruption pursues," the officials wrote." (UNIAN: 31 October 2020) (my emphasis) 

Luckily for Zelensky, the Venice Commission has also to admit that,

"There can be no effective fight against corruption without an independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law. Equally, there can be no independent judiciary and respect for the Rule of Law when corruption is pervasive," (ibid UNIAN 31 Oct 2020) (my emphasis)

The land deal in Putin-occupied Crimea of the Chair of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine, Oleksandr Tupytsky, can be seen as nothing more nor less than an example of "corruption that is pervasive" within the Constitutional Court of Ukraine itself. 

The passing of this Bill to terminate the powers of the Constitutional Court will demand of Zelensky to replace it with new members very quickly.

The EU will be carefully watching who Zelensky will appoint to a new Constitutional Court.

And so will Putin.

And, who knows, so could a new US President Biden as Americans head for the polling booths tomorrow to elect the next US President.

Zelensky could redeem himself in the eyes of the people of Ukraine if his Constitutional Court appointees hold aloft the spirit of the Maidan Revolution of Dignity.

Will he be able to? 

(to be continued)