Zelensky, and Putin's lesson about being cornered

Leon Aron (left) writes that,

"Now, on the seventh anniversary of the Crimean Anschluss, many of the same vectors that produced the invasion of Ukraine are here again. Anticipating their trajectory and formulating a plan ought to be among the Biden administration’s main concerns.

There are at least two reasons for Putin to be thinking about similar big and bold actions today. One is strategic and abiding: glory for himself and his Russia, the two by now entwined in his mind. The other motive is tactical: He is working toward a lifetime presidency—a six-year term in 2024, at 72, and perhaps another in 2030— in a country where the economy and incomes have stagnated for over a decade and the still-raging Covid-19 pandemic has left deep scars. " (Politico : March 15 2021) (my emphasis)

Already, on the 14th and 15th of this month, UNIAN reports that,

• 
  "In the past day, March 14, thirteen ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said in a Facebook update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 15, 2021.

• "In the past day, March 15, ten ceasefire violations were recorded in the Joint Forces Operation (JFO) zone," the press center of the Ukrainian JFO Command said on Facebook in an update as of 07:00 Kyiv time on March 16, 2021.

UNIAN has also reported that,

"Enemy forces in the temporarily occupied areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions are preparing for the aggravation of hostilities in the warzone.
....
Also, non-stop drills are being held at local training grounds.
....
The so-called "Union of Donbas Volunteers" organization has been lately recruiting men from Russia to the ranks of Kremlin's proxy forces to fight on the territory of Ukraine. Calls to boost draft efforts have been sent to all branches of the Organization." (UNIAN : 9 March 2021) (my emphasis)

The backdrop of this current buildup by Putin to accelerate his war with Ukraine is, as Tatiana Stanovaya (left) wrote last month, that,

".... The drama surrounding Navalny’s poisoning was the fuse, but the fire it lit is being fed by the public’s fatigue and frustration with the Putin regime and its inability to change. By refusing any dialogue with its opponents and the public, the regime all but guarantees that social tensions will morph into political protest. Either the regime must find the wisdom to be more flexible, or it will become an unambiguously repressive state. The latest events set Russia firmly on track to the latter destination." (Financial Times: 7 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Added to which, as I wrote in my last blog entry (3rd March 2021)

"Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine."

Putin may be somewhat relieved by the fact that, as reported by Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury,

"India's Deputy Permanent Representative at the UN, R Ravindra, stated at the Arria Formula meeting organised by Estonia which is currently a non permanent member of the UN Security Council

"India has advocated political and diplomatic solutions that protect the legitimate interests of all countries in the region and ensure long term peace and stability in Europe and beyond. The path forward can only be through peaceful dialogue for a lasting solution acceptable to all concerned," Ravindra emphasised. This indicated India's position supporting Moscow on the Ukraine issue including Crimea." (The Economic Times : 13 March 2021) (my emphasis)

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By

Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury

This temporary diplomatic relief of Putin is, however, being dissipated by the fact that,

"Ukraine would like to see the United States more engaged in the Normandy format of talks on Donbas settlement, says Ukraine's new ambassador to the U.S., Oksana Markarova. (left)

In an interview with LB the diplomat also noted that the issue is now being actively discussed by Ukrainian authorities.

"We would like to see more engagement in this format on the part of the United States. It's up to Washington to decide what it'll be like. Now the issue is being actively discussed by the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry and the team of the relevant deputy prime minister," the ambassador said." (UNIAN :15 March 2021) (my emphasis) 

A US presence at Minsk2 talks would be the equivalent of US President Biden attending those talks. 

This would be Putin's nightmare.

It would also be Angela Merkel's nightmare who, let us recall,

" .... has defied Emmanuel Macron's demands to end construction on Nord Stream 2, a ten billion euro pipeline which will double natural gas deliveries from Russia to Germany. There had been calls from Brussels as well as France for Germany to stop the pipeline following the Russian crackdown on opposition and the imprisonment of Alexei Navalny. However, Ms Merkel defied these threats during a joint press conference with Mr Macron, who declined to repeat his demands." (Oli Smith (right): Express : 5 February 2021) (my emphasis)

As Leon Aron states, Putin seems now to be desperately seeking  glory for himself.

And in this state of desperation Putin, like a cornered rat, will lash out.

 "He [Putin] said: ”Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner.
“It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me."

The book [Putin's childhood biography] explains that Putin got away, but the memory never escaped him.
He said: “Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door shut in its nose.
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word cornered.” (Matthew Kirkham : Express : 5 December 2018)

(to be continued)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

 Yesterday (2 March 2021) the US Pentagon announced, "...a $125 million military aid package for Ukraine, the first of its kind under the Biden administration." (Aaron Mehta and Howard Altman)(left)

Mehta and Altman further report that,

"The package also includes “capabilities to enhance the lethality, command and control, and situational awareness of Ukraine’s forces through the provision of additional counter-artillery radars and tactical equipment; continued support for a satellite imagery and analysis capability; and equipment to support military medical treatment and combat evacuation procedures,” per a Pentagon statement." (Defense News : 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

This Pentagon announcement follows on from US President Biden's statement that,

"The United States continues to stand with Ukraine and its allies and partners today, as it has from the beginning of this conflict.  On this somber anniversary, we reaffirm a simple truth:  Crimea is Ukraine. 

The United States does not and will never recognize Russia’s purported annexation of the peninsula, and we will stand with Ukraine against Russia’s aggressive acts.  We will continue to work to hold Russia accountable for its abuses and aggression in Ukraine." (The White House : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Biden is simply re-iterating what he said when addressing the Ukrainian Parliament as US Vice President during the Obama Presidency in December of 2015. (video: Biden addressing Ukraine's Rada 2015)

But now he is re-iterating what he promised in 2015 as the President of the US in 2021, after 4 years of the Putin-Trump bromance that gave Putin carte blanche to aggressively continue his war with Ukraine.

It is therefore interesting to note that even Zelensky, who seems to have put the return of occupied Crimea to Ukraine on the back-burner during the Trump presidency, is now launching a Crimean Platform for the de-occupation of Crimea by Putin's soldiers and proxies.

As reported by UNIAN,

"Today is the Day of Resistance to the Occupation of Crimea. For the first time in years after the annexation of the peninsula, Ukraine is taking concrete steps to return the occupied territory," Zelensky wrote on Twitter on February 26, 2021.

According to the president, de-occupation of Crimea is a common task for the global community, which is uniting at the Crimean Platform site.

    "Crimea is Ukraine!" he tweeted." (UNIAN : 26 February 2021) (my emphasis)

More disconcerting for Putin,

"Biden said, speaking at the virtual Munich Security Conference on Friday, February 19 [2021].

"That's why standing up for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine remains a vital concern for Europe and the United States," he stressed.

That's why, he added, addressing "Russian recklessness and hacking into computer networks in the United States, and across Europe, and the world has become critical to our collective security." (UNIAN : 19 February 2021) (my emphasis)

The freedom that Putin's army of hackers enjoyed during the Trump administration is further being circumscribed by the pressures being brought to bear upon Facebook, in particular, to get its house in order by more aggressively monitoring and blocking the avalanche of dis-information emanating from Putin's army of hackers.

As reported by Politico,

"Wu is the author of “The Curse of Bigness: Antitrust in the New Gilded Age,” and a hero to progressives who want President JOE BIDEN to take a more aggressive approach to Big Tech.
.....

1) Biden is building momentum for an administration that is tough on tech and will fill more crucial positions with policymakers in line with Wu’s views." (Politico : 23 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Let us also remind ourselves, as reported by Robin Emmott (right), that,

"The European Union prolonged on Thursday its economic sanctions on Russia for its intervention in Ukraine by another six months, the bloc’s council of governments said in a statement.....The sanctions will be formally prolonged until July 31, 2021, with leaders considering the next rollover in June." (Reuters :17 December 2020) (my emphasis)

Which, for Putin, makes the completion of the Nord Stream2 pipeline even more critical for a failing Russian economy, now being exacerbated by the Covid pandemic and uncertainties about the price of oil in the near future.

Even on the oil front, things are not as rosy as Putin would wish. As reported by Keris Lahiff,

"However, after a 23% rally so far this year, one top energy expert warns the commodity may have gotten ahead of itself.

“My personal view … is that the price is too frothy, and that it doesn’t warrant a WTI price of greater than $58,” Regina Mayor, global and U.S. head of energy for KPMG, told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Thursday." (CNBC: 12 February 2021) (my emphasis)

Already oil prices have slid, as UNIAN reports.

"Oil prices slid more than 1% on Tuesday, extending losses that began last week, as expectations that OPEC would agree to raise oil supply in a meeting this week added to pressure and worries over slowing demand in China dampened sentiment." (UNIAN: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis) (cf also: Reuters )

After stalling in a political dead sea during the Trump presidency, Zelensky now has some positive political wind in his sails.

But as Roman Olearchyk points out,

"The president is pushing parliament to approve a reform of the country’s unruly judicial system, where underpaid and corrupt judges are used by the rich and powerful to pursue their business and political interests.
......
Daria Kaleniuk (right), of the anti-corruption watchdog Antac, said the move against Medvedchuk was a“huge positive surprise”.

"However, I am not sure the president is ready to run a full-scale war against all oligarchs. To do that he needs to get rid of notorious people inside his team and reboot the judicial system,” she said, adding that vested interests within his administration were undermining such reforms." (Financial Times: 2 March 2021) (my emphasis)

Now is not the time for Zelensky to falter.

(to be continued)