Thanks to Biden, Zelensky and Polish Premier Mateusz Morawiecki are now caught in a German political bind.

Finally the mask of President Biden's "unconditional" support for Ukraine in its war with Putin has fallen from his face.

Putinversteher Angela Merkel, who regularly has telephone tête-à-têtes with Putin and who, incidentally, keeps him regularly stocked up with his favourite German beer, have decided among themselves that Nord Stream2 can go ahead.

A "Joint Statement of the United States and Germany on Support for Ukraine, European Energy Security, and our Climate Goals" released by the US Department of State, contains the following :

"We support the energy security of Ukraine and Central and Eastern Europe, including the key principles enshrined in the EU’s Third Energy Package of diversity and security of supply. Germany underscores that it will abide by both the letter and the spirit of the Third Energy Package with respect to Nord Stream 2 under German jurisdiction to ensure unbundling and third-party access. This includes an assessment of any risks posed by certification of the project operator to the security of energy supply of the EU." (US Department of State : 21 July 2021) (my emphasis)

As a sop to Ukraine, Merkel and US President Biden tried to soften this blow to not only Ukraine, but also to Poland, by further stating that,

"The United States and Germany are united in their belief that it is in Ukraine’s and Europe’s interest for gas transit via Ukraine to continue beyond 2024. In line with this belief, Germany commits to utilize all available leverage to facilitate an extension of up to 10 years to Ukraine’s gas transit agreement with Russia, including appointing a special envoy to support those negotiations, to begin as soon as possible and no later than September 1. The United States commits to fully support these efforts." (ibid US Dept. of State) (my emphasis)

As Betsy Woodruff Swan, Alexander Ward and Andrew Desiderio report,

"In the midst of tense negotiations with Berlin over a controversial Russia-to-Germany pipeline, the Biden administration is asking a friendly country to stay quiet about its vociferous opposition. And Ukraine is not happy.

U.S. officials have signaled that they’ve given up on stopping the project, known as the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and are now scrambling to contain the damage by striking a grand bargain with Germany." (Politico : 20 July 2021) (my emphasis) 

Amanda Macias CNBC 15 July 2021

If US President Biden's political strategy is an attempt to politically "handcuff" the new German Chancellor that will emerge during this coming September's Chancellorship election in Germany, he may be in for a rather unpleasant surprise.

Let us recall (blog entry 10/04/2018) that a former Chancellor of Germany, none other than Helmut Schmidt, once stated that,

In the newspaper Die Zeit, Helmut Schmidt  said Mr Putin’s annexation of Crimea was not quite “legitimate” but certainly “understandable”. 

Like Putin, who in March of 2017 said that,

"...  the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline was purely economic and not directed against other countries, as he met the head of German chemicals group BASF, a potential partner in the project" (Reuters: March 22, 2017),

we also have Angela Merkel, the Putinversteher, arguing that,

“We think this is an economic project. We are also for energy diversification. We also want Ukraine to continue to have transit gas traffic, but we believe Nord Stream poses no danger to diversification,” she said" (Joseph Nasr & Noah Barkin : Reuters : February 16, 2018) (my emphasis)

And then we have Gerhard Schröder (left with Putin), former Chancellor of Germany (1988 - 2005) and currently Chairman of the Nord Stream2 Shareholders' Committee.

Gerhard Schröder was a strong advocate of the Nord Stream pipeline project, which now supplies Russian gas directly to Germany, thereby bypassing transit countries. (Wikipedia)

In 2017, Russia [ read: Putin] nominated Schröder to also serve as an independent director of the board of its biggest oil producer Rosneft. At the time, Rosneft was under Western sanctions over Russia's role in the Ukraine crisis. (ibid Wikipedia)

Zelensky is now caught in a  political cleft stick. 

As reported by Euronews,

"In a joint statement issued on Wednesday night, the countries' [Ukraine and Poland] two foreign ministers, Dmytro Kuleba and Zbigniew Rau (right) called the deal struck "insufficient".

"The decision to build Nord Stream 2 made in 2015 mere months after Russia’s invasion and illegal annexation of Ukrainian territory, created a security, credibility and political crisis in Europe," they said. "Currently, this crisis is significantly deepened by the resignation from attempts to stop the launch of the NS2 gas pipeline.

"Unfortunately, the proposals to cover the resulting security deficit cannot be considered sufficient to limit the threats created by NS2. We call on the United States and Germany to adequately address the security crisis in our region, that Russia is the only beneficiary to. Ukraine and Poland will work together with their and partners to oppose NS2 until solutions are developed." (Euronews :22 July 2021) (my emphasis)

There is, politically, very little that either Zelensky or the Polish Premier, Mateusz Morawiecki, can do.

Both are being forced to adapt to the economic and political crumbs being thrown to them by Merkel and US President Biden.

Both Merkel and US President Biden are trying to pacify Putin.

However, like Donald Trump, Putin believes in his 'fantasy' world of Ukraine being merely an extension of Russia ... Novorussia or New Russia, just as Trump believes that he won the 2020 US Presidential election.  

Both Zelensky and Mateusz Morawiecki now await, with trepidation, the outcome of the looming Chancellorship election in Germany.

Neither should hold their breath.

The Putinversteher German political establishment will always come down on the side of Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin's preparation for 'war with Ukraine' is all that he now has left in his political toolbox.

 On 18 June 2021 I wrote that,

"For Zelensky, his upcoming meeting with US President Biden in the White House must now seem like a dream come true. 

As announced by  Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba,

"The date of the end of July is being discussed. The visit of the president of Ukraine to the United States. A full-fledged visit... This will be an official full-fledged visit, which envisages not only the meeting with President Biden, but also many other events," he said, adding that a large delegation will go from Kyiv to Washington, and it will have a broad agenda." (UNIAN : 12  June 2021) (my emphasis)

Zelensky now has the full support of the President of the US, (some?) G7 countries, and NATO, behind his political sails.

Now is NOT the time to try and bargain with Putin." (Blog Entry 18 June 2021)

And more worrying for Putin, as reported by Laura Zhou (right), is the fact that,

"Ukraine could become a “bridge to Europe” for Chinese business, Zelensky told Xi, adding that his country was keen to export more agricultural products to China.

Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s position supporting the unity of China and in return, Xi said China supported the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine, according to the Ukrainian statement." (South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

It is therefore not surprising that, as reported by Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick,

"VLADIMIR Putin could be heading for war with Ukraine as he plots a new land grab of the disputed region of Donbass, experts have warned.

In an article published this week, Putin described Russians and Ukrainians as "one people" and said he has "become convinced" that Ukraine "does not need" Donbass.

The Russian leader's chilling remarks have prompted speculation he is now plotting new military action after thousands of troops were recently marched to the border of the disputed Ukrainian region." (The Sun : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

 What is highly dis-concerting is that,

"Putin ally, [Mikhail Khodarenok] warns that [the current] crisis with Ukraine could go NUCLEAR as tensions rise" (ibid Will Stewart and Imogen Braddick)

Recall that in April of this year, Putin massed thousands of combat-ready troops on the Russian-Ukraine border. Now these troops are being supplemented by more Russian troops and hardware being built up in Russian occupied Ukrainian Crimea.

South China Morning Post :  14 July 2021

As Anders Åslund (left) observes,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. In his annual call-in show on June 30, he claimed that “Ukrainians and Russians are a single people.” He then published an article aimed at justifying that “conviction,” by tracing the two countries’ shared history. It is a masterclass in disinformation – and one step short of a declaration of war." (Project Syndicate : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Another factor that may have precipitated Putin shaking his "nuclear" fist at Zelensky and at US President Biden and the EU is the fact that,

"Websites for a Russian-linked ransomware gang blamed for attacks on hundreds of businesses worldwide have gone offline.
........
Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions.

The timing of Tuesday's outage has sparked speculation that either the US or Russian officials may have taken action against REvil - though officials have so far declined to comment and cyber experts say sudden disappearances of groups are not necessarily uncommon." (BBC News : 14 July 2021) (my emphasis)

We may never know whether Putin or US President Biden is responsible for cutting off the cyber-legs of this cyber-gang.

What it does indicate is that US President Biden's making it clear to Putin that,

"Mr Biden told reporters that he had "made it very clear to him...we expect them [Putin and his siloviki] to act" on information and also hinted the US could take direct digital retaliation on servers used for intrusions. (ibid BBC News)"

seems to have had results.

Putin's arrogance in deploying cyber attacks against many countries, besides the US, may now be coming to an end as cyber retaliation from the US is now firmly on the political table. 

Added to which,

"Today, the EU and Ukraine have launched a strategic partnership on raw materials, with the aim of achieving a closer integration of raw materials and batteries value chains. Vice-President Maroš Šefčovič and Prime Minister of Ukraine Denys Shmyhal signed a Memorandum of Understanding underpinning the partnership during the dedicated High Level Conference." (European Commission : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Which, as Anders Åslund observed,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin is obsessed with Ukraine – or, rather, with pretending that Ukraine doesn’t exist. ...... "

underscoring the 'fantasy world about Ukraine' in which Putin still lives.

Zelensky succinctly countered Putin's 5000 word 'fantasy world about Ukraine'.

As reported by RFERL,

" Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has trolled his Russian counterpart, saying he was "envious" that Vladimir Putin had enough free time on his hands to research the history of their peoples.
.........
"I am envious that the president of such a great power can permit himself to spend so much time [writing] such a volume of detailed work," Zelenskiy said.

He said that, despite Putin's mention of "brotherly" populations, Russia's actions had been anything but brotherly.

"It looks more like Cain and Abel," Zelenskiy said." (RFERL : 13 July 2021) (my emphasis)

Putin's political teeth is being pulled out! All that is now left in his political toolbox is 'war with Ukraine'.

(to be continued)