For Putin, the pressure is now ramping up against him.

In my last blog entry I wrote that,

"However, his ongoing war crimes in Ukraine, his war crimes against the world by using food as a weapon of war, and his threats against Lithuania and Denmark, could be the 'Black Swan' events that leads to a much wider and more dangerous conflict." (blog entry : 21 June 2022)

And now, in the words of UK General Sir Patrick Sanders (left), Chief of the General Staff,

"This is our 1937 moment. We are not at war - but we must act rapidly so that we aren’t drawn into one through a failure to contain territorial expansion. So surely it is beholden on each of us to ensure that we never find ourselves asking that futile question – should we have done more?
...
The conflict in Ukraine will herald I think a paradigm shift in how NATO delivers collective deterrence; from a doctrine of reacting to crises, to one of deterring them." (uk.gov : Chief of General Staff Speech : 28 June 2022) (my emphasis) (video: Sky News : YouTube : 28 June 2022)

This speech comes against the backdrop, as reported by AP, that,

"Turkey agreed Tuesday to lift its opposition to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, a breakthrough in an impasse clouding a leaders’ summit in Madrid amid Europe’s worst security crisis in decades triggered by the war in Ukraine." (NBC News (AP) (incl. video): 28 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And today, (30 June 2022) Putin warned that if Sweden or Finland have NATO troops or infrastructure placed in their countries Russia will, in his words,

".. ... respond in kind and create the same threats for the territories from which threats towards us are created" (The Guardian : YouTube : 30 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 The Guardian : YouTube: 30 June 2022

Recently, in the words of  non other than French President Macron,

"France's president denounced Russia’s fiery airstrike on a crowded shopping mall in Ukraine as a “new war crime” Tuesday and vowed that the West's support for Kyiv would not waver, saying Moscow “cannot and should not win" the war.
...
“Russia cannot and should not win,” he said. He called Monday's attack on the mall “a new war crime.” (Franceska Ebel and Yuras Karmanau: Yahoo : 29 June 2022) (my emphasis)

CNBC Television : YouTube: 28 June 2022

A few days before this bombing took place, and Sweden and Finland were welcomed into NATO, 

"The UN Security Council on Sunday voted on a draft resolution deciding to convene an emergency special session of the General Assembly to recommend collective action on the situation in Ukraine, two days after a similar resolution, sponsored by 81 nations, was shot down at the council on Friday by the Russian veto." (Arab News : 29 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And after the day of the missile strike on a Shopping Mall in Ukraine, in a summary of a UN Security Council Meeting,

"Rosemary Dicarlo (right), Under-Secretary-General for Political and Peacebuilding Affairs, said the depravity of the situation in Ukraine has only increased in the 10 weeks since she last briefed the Security Council.  It was on full display again on 27 June following a missile strike in Kremenchuk, in the central Poltava region." (UN Security Council Meeting: 28 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, as reported by R. Ghosh on June 26,

"Mystery shrouds a late-night rush to Kremlin by Russian President Vladimir Putin amid suspicion that he had prepared a new televised statement on the war with Ukraine. A new video has emerged that shows Putin's convoy in a late-night dash to Kremlin on Saturday night. Also, reports are that he hasn't returned yet." (International Business Times : 26 June 2022) (my emphasis) (video : Mail Online : 26 June 2022)

This dash by Putin to the Kremlin comes just a day before the bombing of the Shopping Mall in Kremenchuk.

And we also just learn that,

"Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez (left), who is hosting the NATO summit, told Cadena Ser radio that Russia will be identified as the alliance's "main threat" in its new strategic concept.
...
The country was previously considered a strategic partner. (Sky News : 29 June 2022) (my emphasis)

On the sanctions front, we now have the prospect of Putin's sales of gold being severely restricted.

As reported by William Schomberg (right),

"Britain, the United States, Japan and Canada will ban new imports of Russian gold as part of efforts to tighten the sanctions squeeze on Moscow for its invasion of Ukraine, the British government said on Sunday.
...
Russian gold exports were worth 12.6 billion pounds ($15.45 billion) last year and wealthy Russians have recently been buying bullion to reduce the financial impact of Western sanctions, the government said." (Reuters : 26 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Unfortunately for Putin and his oligarchs, gold carries with it an exclusive fingerprint of where it was mined. (Gold- Identifying its provenance : John Watling, Cameron J Scadding, and Roger Dixon)

Will Russia's oligarchs dare to NOT buy gold from Russia's gold mines? I think not!

For Putin, the pressure is now ramping up against him.

STOP PRESS : DOORSTEP STATEMENT NATO 29 June 2022

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, has just issued a Doorstep Statement from the Madrid Nato Conference.

Referring to Ukraine he said,

".... we will, of course, express our support to Ukraine.

I am glad that President Zelenskyy will address all the leaders as we start the Summit today.

And we will also agree a Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine.

NATO and NATO Allies have supported Ukraine for many many years.
But, of course, after the invasion we have all stepped up." (NATO : 29 June 2022) (my emphasis) 

 

 (to be continued)

Putin is moving towards a much wider and more dangerous conflict.

The dust has now settled on the French elections and Macron, recently re-elected President of France,  now finds himself caught in a political vice by the leftwing and rightwing in the French National Assembly.

As reported by Hugh Scholfield (right),

"The results of Sunday's legislative election confirm that this second term will be a different beast from the first, with Mr Macron cutting the figure of a chastened and greatly weakened leader.
...
Instead of being able to rely on (and basically therefore ignore) a compliant legislature, the president now faces a National Assembly which cannot guarantee the passage of his reforms." (BBC News : 20 June 2022) (my emphasis)

For Zelensky, President of Ukraine, what is disconcerting about the French election results is the success of the far-right Rassemblement National led by Marine Le Pen, a staunch supporter of Putin.

As reported by Ivanne Trippenbach,

"For the first time in the history of the Fifth Republic, the far right has stormed into the Assemblée Nationale with 89 MPs, compared to six in the previous elections.
...
Ms. Le Pen was easily re-elected as MP for Pas-de-Calais with 61.03%. She made an emotional congratulation speech to celebrate achieving "a very powerful group of RN MPs in the Assemblée, which makes it a little more national." The far right will now benefit from increased resources, influence, speaking time and parliamentary staff." (Le Monde : 20 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Let us recall that in 2015, shortly after Putin illegally invaded and annexed Ukraine's Crimea,

"France's Front National [led by Marine Le Pen] may have been given a multi-million-euro loan by a Russian bank as a "reward" for backing President Putin's annexation of Crimea, according to text messages released by Russian hackers...." (David Chazan : The Telegraph : 4 April 2015) (my emphasis) (cf also: Blog Entry 19 January 2016, and Romain Geoffroy and Maxime Vaudano: Le Monde: 22 April 2022)

And as Putin's friends in the newly reconstituted National Assembly in France celebrate their victory, David M. Herszenhorn points out that,

"Each of the three EU leaders [ France's Macron,Germany's Scholtz, and Italy's Draghi] has come under criticism in recent months for seeming to be too accommodating of Russia’s gripes and demands, and potentially too willing to appease Putin. Macron, for instance, negotiated endlessly with Putin to no success, and has repeatedly urged that Russia not be “humiliated.” Berlin, in turn, has been slow to send urgently needed weapons." (Politico : 16 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Deutche Welle : 16 June 2022 : YouTube

We can now only wait and see whether this 'historic' win of Le Pen's far right movement will 'further affect' Macron's rather 'feeble' support of Ukraine. 

Macron's political ambitions for the EU now has to confront the anti-EU stance of Marine Le Pen and the left-wing Eurosceptic Jean-Luc Melenchon in France's National Assembly.

As Michael Wohlgemuth (left) writes,

"..... one should bear in mind that in the April 10 first round, a majority of French voters chose a candidate of the radical right (Eric Zemmour, Ms. Le Pen) or radical left (Jean-Luc Melenchon). Each of these candidates advocated dismantling the EU from within by deliberately breaking or ignoring basic rules of the EU treaty that conflicted with the French national interest." (GIS Reports : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And against this political backdrop in France, Sabine Siebold and Charlotte Van Campenhout report that,

"Russia is committing a war crime by blocking the export of millions of tonnes of Ukrainian grain, the European Union's foreign policy chief [Josep Borrell] said on Monday as EU foreign ministers met to discuss ways to free up the crop amid a global food crisis." (Reuters : 20 June 2022) (my emphasis)

MSN News (Newsweek) 21 June 2022

Le Monde also reports that,

"Kyiv warned that Russian troops were intensifying their battle for control of eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of holding Africa "hostage" by blocking wheat deliveries, which has spurred food shortages and fears of famines in vulnerable areas." (Le Monde : 21 June 2022) (my emphasis)

As Putin's desperation leads him to intensify his war with Ukraine in the Donbas, US President Biden is stepping up his support for Ukraine.

As reported by AlJazeera, President Biden said,

“I informed President Zelenskyy that the United States is providing another $1 billion in security assistance for Ukraine, including additional artillery and coastal defense weapons, as well as ammunition for the artillery and advanced rocket systems that the Ukrainians need to support their defensive operations in the Donbas,” Biden said." (AlJazeera : 15 June 2022) (my emphasis) 

And, as reported by George Bowden (right),

"The new head of the British Army has issued a rallying cry to troops -

telling them they need to be ready to face Russia on the battlefield.
...
Gen Sir Patrick Sanders, who started the job last week, addressed all ranks and civil servants in an internal message on 16 June, seen by the BBC.
...
Russia's invasion of Ukraine shows the need "to protect the UK and be ready to fight and win wars on land", he says." (BBC News : 19 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Putin's desperation is best exemplified by the fact that, as reported by Sky News,

"Moscow has threatened EU and NATO member Lithuania by saying it will take measures to defend its national interests unless the transit of goods to Russia's Kaliningrad exclave is swiftly restored." (Sky News : 20 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Michael Curzon,

"A Russian warship has twice violated Denmark's territorial waters in an event that has been branded "completely unacceptable".
...
Denmark’s Foreign Minister Jeppe Kofod (left) described the intrusion as “a deeply irresponsible, gross and completely unacceptable Russian provocation”. (Express : 18 June 2022) (my emphasis)

In his bunker, Putin may be pleased that the recent French elections have increased his friends in the French National Assembly.

However, his ongoing war crimes in Ukraine, his war crimes against the world by using food as a weapon of war, and his threats against Lithuania and Denmark, could be the 'Black Swan' events that leads to a much wider and more dangerous conflict. 

9 News Australia : YouTube : 21 June 2022

 (to be continued)

The Pope, Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi betraying Ukraine.

 "A complete news cycle consists of the media reporting on some event, followed by the media reporting on public and other reactions to the earlier reports. The advent of 24-hour cable and satellite television news channels and, in more recent times, of news sources on the World Wide Web (including blogs), considerably shortened this process. " (Wikipedia)

As reported by Dan Sabbagh (left),

"Ukraine’s war with Russia is heading towards its fifth month amid increasing local concern that dwindling media attention could lead to a gradual loss of western support just as Moscow is making slow but steady gains on the frontline." (The Guardian : 12 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And as media attention on Putin's second war with Ukraine dwindles, Putin, donning the cloak of Peter the Great, is wishing to reverse the defeat of Peter the Great at the hands of Sweden during the battle of Narva. Russia was ill-prepared to fight the Swedes, and their first attempt at seizing the Baltic coast ended in disaster at the Battle of Narva in 1700. (Wikipedia) (video below: The Guardian (YouTube) 10 June 2022 and Metro 10 June)

Putin quite categorically states in his pep talk to students commemorating Peter the Great   that,

"Well, it seems it has fallen to us to take back and strengthen (territories), and if we take these basic values as fundamental to our existence, we will prevail in solving the issues we are facing" (ibid video above)

What is rather disconcerting is that Putin's TV propaganda machine in Russia is also pushing this delusion of Putin.

• 
  Olga Skabeeva : "Now all of us understand the plans of the Russian State for the future: we're returning and fortifying ... The president formulated our goals ..."
• Andrey Kartapolov (State Duma Member) : In this new world, Russia will be the power, the moral compass, the landmark of purity, truth and correctness, to which sensible people will flock from all over the planet ..." (2nd part of video above) (above: Skabeeva and Kartapolov)

Yet we now also learn about the Pope supporting Putin's initial arguments about NATO as the catalyst that caused him to start his second war with Ukraine.

As reported by Chico Harlan and Stefano Pitrelli

"He [the Pope] has conspicuously avoided condemning Russian President Vladimir Putin as the aggressor. He has criticized the West’s sanctions and defense spending. And in an interview published this month by an Italian newspaper, Francis appeared to echo a Kremlin talking point, describing the “barking of NATO at Russia’s door” as one of the triggers for Putin’s wrath." (Washington Post : 20 May 2022) (my emphasis)

And as we learn of the Pope, "describing the “barking of NATO at Russia’s door” as one of the triggers for Putin’s wrath.", MSN News (The Guardian) reports that,

 

"Zelenskiy repeated his call for the west to step up the provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine.
...
Zelenskiy added that Ukraine does not have enough anti-missile systems to shoot down Russian projectiles targeting its cities. “Our country does not have enough of them ... there can be no justification in delays in providing them.” (MSN : 15 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

 

(video from article : Sophia Mencarelli : Express : 13 June 2022)

 

Even NATO Secretary Jens Stoltenberg (right) agrees with Zelenskiy.

 

As reported by RFE/RL,

 

"Yes, Ukraine should have more heavy weapons," Stoltenberg told a press conference at The Hague after meeting with the leaders of seven European NATO allies ahead of a summit at the end of June.
...
NATO is already "stepping up" deliveries and officials would be meeting in Brussels on June 15 to coordinate further support, including heavy weaponry, Stoltenberg said." (RFE/RL : 15 June 2022) (my emphasis)
 

And finally, we now learn that French president Macron has decided to vist Kiev.

 

As reported by Jon King (left),

 

"Emmanuel Macron will visit Ukraine for the first time later this month ....
The French President will be joined by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, according to reports." (Express : 13 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

Jon King continues, however, that,

 

"The Élysée Palace is reported to have told French daily Le Parisien that Mr Macron will go to Ukraine when the visit will be most useful for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
...
Other reports suggest he may take advantage of a planned trip to Romania and Moldova, which share a border with Ukraine, this Tuesday and Wednesday to visit Kyiv" (ibid Jon King). 

 

Or could Macron's sudden impending visit to Kyiv have been precipitated by, as reported by Leia Paxton (right),

 

"Emmanuel Macron has been blasted for his calls not to "humiliate" Vladimir Putin as Wladimir Klitschko detailed the stench of death left behind in Ukrainian towns occupied by Russian troops." (Express : 9 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

But there are also economic reasons why Macron has been rather reluctant to visit Kyiv, and why he has been constantly calling Putin.

 

As reported by Antony Ashkenaz (left),

"French President Emmanuel Macron has been accused of betraying Ukraine as the latest figures showed that French gas imports from Russia soared since the war began.
...
The report showed in April and May, France received a dozen shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other fossil fuel products worth almost €900million (£773million).
...
Lauri Myllyvirta, an analyst at Crea, told the Telegraph: “France and Belgium stand out as buyers of Russian LNG on the spot market." (Express : 14 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

No better than Macron, we now have Millie Cooke (right) reporting that,

"Germany has been shamed after a weapons delivery to Ukraine was delayed, with one commentator accusing the country of having "been in Putin's pockets for decades."

 

She further reports that,

 

"Last month, German news outlet Die Welt revealed that Germany had not sent any heavy weapons to Ukraine since mid-March, saying that the country appears to be scaling back military support.
...
Meanwhile, a recent study by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy found that Germany, [ gave less support to Ukraine than the US, the UK and Poland....]
...
And yet, earlier this week Mr Scholz claimed that he was providing more support to Ukraine than "almost anyone else". (Express : 9 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

But as reported by Brian McGleenon (right),

Germany has blocked Spain from sending Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine.
...
The Visegrád 24 Twitter news outlet tweeted: "Germany has blocked Spain’s plans on sending dozens of Leopard 2A4 tanks to Ukraine.
...
"According to Der Spiegel, the Scholz government warned Spain that it would constitute a departure from an alleged informal decision by the West not to provide Western tanks to Ukraine." (Express : 11 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

Please Note! "An alleged INFORMAL decision.." not "A legally BINDING decision"

Meanwhile, the Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi (right) seems to be (reluctantly???) dragged along by Macron and Scholtz, no doubt to somehow add politcal weight to their belated visit to Kyiv. 

 

And in the meantime, Putin continues to commit war crimes against the people of Ukraine as evidenced by the recent revelation that,

 

"Russia has killed hundreds of civilians in the north-eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv using indiscriminate shelling and widely-banned cluster munitions, according to new research by Amnesty International." (Joel Gunter : BBC News : 13 June 2022) (my emphasis) 

What the pronouncements of the Pope, and the recent actions of Macron, Scholtz, and Draghi, illustrate is their betrayal of the people of Ukraine.

 

(to be continued) 

Is Putin now fighting for his political life?

Seven years ago, in 2015, Peter Weber (left) reported that,

"After Russia's military occupation of the Ukrainian region of Crimea over the weekend, a lot of analysts are trying to gaze into Russian President Vladimir Putin's psyche.
...
But at least one world leader seems to think Putin isn't firmly anchored in reality. 

Here's Peter Baker (right) at The New York Times:

• "Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany told Mr. Obama by telephone on Sunday that after speaking with Mr. Putin she was not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. "In another world," she said. [New York Times] (The Week : 8 January 2015) (my emphasis)" (below: Merkel & Putin 2015)
  

Fast forward to to-day and we have French president Emmanuel Macron, like his predecessor before him Franscoise Hollande (cf: blog post 20/02/2015 ), constantly trying to appease a Putin who, in the words of Merkel in 2015, "...  not sure he [Putin] was in touch with reality" (ibid Peter Weber)

As reported by BBC News,

"Ukraine's foreign minister has hit out at French President Emmanuel Macron (left) after he said it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion.
...
Mr Macron said

it was crucial President Vladimir Putin had a way out of what he called a "fundamental error" (?????).
...
But Dmytro Kuleba (right) said allies should "better focus on how to put Russia in its place" as it "humiliates itself".
...
Mr Macron has repeatedly spoken to Mr Putin by phone in an effort to broker a ceasefire and negotiations.
...
The French attempts to maintain a dialogue with the Kremlin leader contrast with the US and UK positions. ... " (BBC News :5 June 2022) (my emphasis) (cf also: Reuters 4/6/2022, Financial Times June 3 2022, amongst many other reports) 

GZERO Media : YouTube : 6 June 2022

And shortly after Macron's 'foot in mouth' argument that, " ...  it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion. ...", and that Putin had made, "... a fundamental error .." in starting his  genocidal second war with Ukraine, BBC News reports that,

"Russia will expand the list of targets it will attack in Ukraine if Western countries send long-range weapons to Kyiv, President Vladimir Putin says.
...
The warning came as explosions shook parts of Kyiv on Sunday in the first air strikes on the capital for weeks." (BBC News : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

Adam Durbin reports, however, that,

"The UK is sending its first long-range missiles to Ukraine, the defence secretary has said, despite a threat from Russia to the West.
..
The government has not confirmed how many weapons will be sent, but the BBC understands it will be three initially.

The decision comes after the US announced last week it was also supplying a rocket system.

The move by the US to send its own M142 High Mobility Artillery Rocket System (HIMARS) has already angered Moscow and on Sunday Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened to expand the list of targets Russia will attack in Ukraine in response." (BBC News :6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

ABC News : 6 June 2022 : YouTube

And as the UK and US send long-range missile systems to Ukraine, the Russian TV propaganda system steps up pushing for Putin to use the 'nuclear' option.

As Chris Jewers reports,

"Vladimir Putin's state television propagandists have unleashed a new rant about launching nuclear weapons in response to Western weapons being sent to Ukraine.

Vladimir Solovyov, also known as 'Putin's voice', said Western deliveries of long-range weapons that could potentially strike into Russian territory means it is only a matter of time before nuclear war breaks out between Russia and the West." (MailOnline : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

 

As also reported by Chris Jewers and Will Stewart, (left) 

 "Moscow's space chief issued wild threats overnight about launching Russia's 'Satan-2' hypersonic missile against NATO countries after Vladimir Putin's top diplomat [Sergei Lavrov] was blocked from travelling to Serbia.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov (left) was forced to cancel his visit after Bulgaria, North Macedonia and Montenegro - three NATO countries around Serbia - closed their airspace to his aircraft, infuriating the Kremlin." (Mail Online : 6 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And from the sidelines, Alys Davies reports that,

"Russia's UN ambassador has stormed out of a UN Security Council meeting after the European Council president blamed Russia's invasion of Ukraine for causing a global food crisis.
...
Charles Michel said Russia was using food supplies as a "stealth missile" against the developing world, forcing people into poverty.
...
The Russian envoy Vassily Nebenzia (left) accused Mr Michel of spreading lies.
...
The war has left food stuck at Ukrainian ports." (BBC News : 7 June 2022) (my emphasis)

And yet ... and yet .... we have French President Macron announcing that,

"....  it was vital that Russia was not humiliated over its invasion." (ibid BBC News 5 June 2022)

Like Merkel and the current German Chancellor Olaf Scholtz, President Macron is simply following in the political footsteps of his near predecessors, together with Olaf Scholtz, singing their 'political mantra of appeasement' towards Putin since his invasion of Ukraine's Crimea in 2014.

And finally we have Angela Merkel trying to justify her appeasement of Putin since 2014, when he started his FIRST war with Ukraine by illegally annexing Ukraine's Crimea and invading the Donbas.

As reported by Riham Alkousaa (left),

• Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on Tuesday that she tried hard when she was in office to prevent the situation in Ukraine from developing to the current state, adding that she does not blame herself for not trying hard enough. 
• "It's a great sadness that it didn't work out, but I don't blame myself for not trying," said Merkel, speaking of the 2014 Minsk agreement with Russia.
  
• 
  The former chancellor defended her policy of supporting trade with Russia, saying Europe and Russia were neighbours that could not ignore each other. (Reuters : 7 June 2022) (my emphasis) (right: German economic jackboots marching over Ukraine towards Putin's Russian "economic bonanza" in 2014)
  

And so, even though Macron and Scholtz are desperately trying to protect Putin's 'face saving' (sic) political 'back' Putin, himself, is being forced to draw his 'Praetorian Guard' ever closer towards himself.

Will his 'Praetorian Guard' be able to protect him now against the Kremlin vultures circling as Russia becomes more isolated on the world stage?

Is Putin now fighting for his political life? 

 

(to be continued)