Putin [Pu-truschev] is now drinking in the "Last Chance Saloon".

At a "rare" online G20 group hosted by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi (left) on  22nd November, many were surprised at Putin's [Pu-truschev's?] recent remarks that Russia is, indeed, at war with Ukraine, just as Putin [Pu-truschev] was somewhat alarmed at the criticism heaped upon him by the other online G20 members of the group. (cf.: Kiran Sharma : Nikkea Asia : 22 November 2023)

France 24 : 24 November 2023 : YouTube

In the words of the former US ambassador to Russia, Michael McFaul, during an interview with Symone Sanders,

"..You have highlighted two very important hings that he doesn't say. He [Putin] called the war "a war", he didn't call it a Special Military Operation in Ukraine, that's what he usually calls it.

And he also labelled it a tragedy" (MSNBC : 23 November 2023) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 23 November 2023

McFaul went on to state that,

"And in particular, it is very clear now that Putin [Pu-truschev] will NOT negotiate until he knows who the next president of the US will be ..... He feels that he could get a better deal if Mr. Trump was the president of the United States" (ibid Symone Sanders) 

Putin's [Pu-truschev's] remark that his war with Ukraine is a tragedy partly stems from the fact, as reported by Anna Frants (left), that,

"The shelves at Moscow supermarkets are full of fruit and vegetables, cheese and meat. But many of the shoppers look at the selection with dismay as inflation makes their wallets feel empty.
...
“If we talk in percentage terms, then, probably, (prices) increased by 25%. This is meat, staple products — dairy produce, fruits, vegetables, sausages. My husband can’t live without sausage! Sometimes I’m just amazed at price spikes,” said Roxana Gheltkova, a shopper in a Moscow supermarket. ...

The Russian parliament has approved a 2024-2026 budget that earmarks a record amount for defense spending. Maxim Blant, a Russian economy analyst based in Latvia, sees that as an indication that prices will continue to rise sharply.(AP Business : 24 November 2023) (my emphasis)

AP Business : 24 November 2023

But perhaps foremost in Putin's [Pu-truschev's?] mind is the fact that, as reported by Matthew Dooley (left),

"Russian soldiers are deserting on the frontlines in Donetsk amid human wave attacks launched by Moscow resulting in enormous casualties.
....
[Ukrainian Colonel Oleksandr Shtupun] said that increasing numbers of Russian soldiers were deserting the frontlines in eastern Ukraine as Moscow throws them into the meat grinder. Barrier troops are being deployed to stop retreats.

Russia has resorted to human wave attacks around Andriivka performed by so-called Storm Z units made up of released convicts and soldiers who refused to follow orders. (Express : 20 November 2023)

More recently, as reported by Erika Kinetz (right),

"Secretly recorded calls of Russian soldiers speaking from the front lines in Ukraine with loved ones back home offer a rare glimpse of the war through Russian eyes.

As the war in Ukraine grinds into its second winter, a growing number of Russian soldiers want out, audio intercepts obtained and verified by The Associated Press indicate. Russian soldiers speak in shorthand of 200s to mean dead, 300s to mean wounded. The urge to flee has become common enough that they also talk of 500s — people who refuse to fight.

These conversations also show clearly how the war has progressed, from the professional soldiers who initially powered Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion to men from all walks of life compelled to serve in grueling conditions.

The AP verified the identities of people in the calls by speaking with relatives and soldiers — some of whom are still at war in Ukraine ... " (The Independent : 26 November 2023) (my emphasis)

With "inflation" on the home front in Russia, and Russian soldiers fleeing from Ukraine's deadly onslaught against them, Putin's [Pu-truschev's] anger knows no bounds.

As James Waterhouse (left) reports,

"Russia has launched its biggest drone attack on Kyiv since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine began last year, the city's mayor has said.

Residents were woken by explosions before dawn on Saturday, and for more than six hours, the booms of Kyiv's air defences echoed through the city." (BBC News : 25 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Unlike before, however, Katie Boyden (right) reports that,

"Russia has come under intense kamikaze drone attack this weekend in the heaviest bombardment by Ukraine for months.

Three of Moscow’s international airports – Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Zhukovsky – were forced to close, with flights suspended or cancelled.

Russia was forced to shoot down 11 drones overnight on Saturday, and another nine early on Sunday morning.

It comes as Ukraine retaliates against Russian shelling on Saturday." (Metro : 26 November 2023) (my emphasis)  

And what was the response of Putin's "old" mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov?

As reported by France 24,

"In Kyiv ten years ago there was a coup with the use of force, the legitimate authorities were overthrown," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) said Sunday." (France 24 : 26 November 2023) (my emphasis)

If Peksov could only mouth a rather feeble response to the avalanche of setbacks being suffered by Putin [Pu-truschev] internationally, internally with inflation rising inexorably in Russia, and on the war front in Ukraine, then the deafening silence of that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov (right), speaks volumes.

Putin [Pu-truschev] is now drinking in the "Last Chance Saloon".

UPDATES : 28 November 2023

With  Putin [Pu-truschev] desperately trying to avert the eyes of the West from his war with Ukraine, Matthew Lee (left) now reports that,

"Secretary of State Antony Blinken is turning his attention to Ukraine, NATO and the Western Balkans after weeks of intense focus on Israel’s war against Hamas in Gaza.
...
The two-day session on Tuesday and Wednesday will include the first foreign minister-level meeting of the NATO-Ukraine Council, a body created by alliance leaders at their last summit to improve cooperation and coordination and help prepare Kyiv for eventual membership.

“Allies will continue to support Ukraine’s self-defense until Russia stops its war of aggression,” said Jim O’Brien, the top U.S. diplomat for Europe." (The Independent : 28 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Further underscoring Putin's [Pu-truschev's] desperation, Alexander Marrow (right) reports that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin gave his official approval to a significant increase in military spending that will see around 30% of fiscal expenditure directed towards the armed forces in 2024 as he signed draft budget plans into law on Monday.

Moscow is diverting ever more resources towards prosecuting its war in Ukraine. Spending on defence and security combined is set to reach around 40% of all budget expenditure next year.

Spending on defence is set to increase by almost 70% in 2024 from 2023." (Reuters : 27 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Indeed, as Emma Burrows (left) had earlier reported,

"The main driver of that growth is Russia’s war in Ukraine, which is now as important to the Kremlin economically as it is politically.

The state and military are now playing a much bigger role in the economy than they have historically, and industries related to the war — including defense production — have helped to drive Russia’s unemployment level down to a record low of 3%.

The war has also taken hundreds of thousands of workers out of the economy, either because they’re fighting in Ukraine or because they’ve fled Russia, often to escape conscription." (AP News : 15 November 2023) 

Is it therefore any wonder that Charter97 now reports that,

"On Friday, November 24, the Russian government approved a resolution to bring the regulatory framework in the field of military registration into line with changes to legislation adopted by parliament, Deutsche Welle reports, citing the Interfax agency. According to these changes, men aged 18 to 30 will begin to be conscripted into the Russian army from January 1, 2024. Until now, the maximum age of conscripts was 27 years.
...
With the new age limits, approximately 2 million more Russian men will be drafted in 2024 than would have been the case with the previously active age framework .. (Charter97 : 25 November 2023) (cf also: DW : 25 November 2023)

More significantly, Maryam Zakir-Hussain (left) now also reports that,

"Russia has likely been forced to move several air defence systems from its Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea coast to the frontline in Ukraine amid the losses it has suffered there, according to the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD).
...
“Exceptional Russian air transport movements through November 2023 suggest that Russia has likely moved strategic air defence systems from its Baltic coast enclave of Kaliningrad, to backfill recent losses on the Ukraine front,” the MoD said in its latest intelligence update on Sunday." (The independent : 28 November 2023) (my emphasis) 

Putin [Pu-truschev] is, indeed, now drinking in the "Last Chance Saloon".

 

 

 

(to be continued)

Who is now in charge in Russia?

The recent summit meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and US president Biden represents more that simply a friendly meeting. It represents the resumption of harmonious relations between China and the US.

In the words of president Xi Jinping (cf. video below),

"The Chinese - US relations, which is the most important bilateral relationship in the world, should be perceived, and envisioned, in a broad context of the accelerating global transformations unseen in a century. It should develop in a way that benefits our two peoples and fulfills our responsibility for human progress." (Michael A. Cohen : MSNBC : 17 November 2023) (my emphasis) 

MSNBC : 17 November 2023

What must have stuck in the craw of Putin is Xi Jinping's statement that US-China relations are, "... the most important bilateral relationship in the world".

So much for the relations between Russia and China, which Putin has so assiduously cultivated since his recent 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

 In a post summit statement US president Biden also informed us that,

"[President Xi Jinping] has been straight .... The thing that I find most assuring is that he raised, and I fully agree, that if either one of us have any concern .... a concern about anything between our nations or happening in our region, we should pick up the phone and call one another and we would take the call" (ibid  Michael A. Cohen :  video below)

 MSNBC : 17 November 2023

Adding to Putin [Pu-truschev?] angrily choking on the resumption of harmonious relations between China and the US, Alexander Butler and Andy Gregory (right) report that,

"Russia is suffering “particularly heavy losses” on the Donetsk frontline as it seeks to capture the tactically key city of Avdiivka, with fighting continuing to rage in Kupiansk and at the Dnipro River, the UK’s Ministry of Defence has said.

And Vladimir Putin has lost around a brigade’s worth of forces at the Dnipro River since Ukraine first began attacking its eastern bank, where it now claims to have secured a foothold, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War think-tank." (The Independent : 18 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Compounding Putin's anger at these losses, AP News reports that,

"Germany’s aid for Ukraine will be “massively expanded” next year, the foreign minister said Monday as Kyiv heads into its second winter since Russia launched its full-scale invasion.
.....
Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) said as she arrived Monday at a meeting with European Union counterparts that, even as Europe grapples with the war between Israel and Hamas, it’s still important to “face the geopolitical challenge here.” " (AP News : 13 November 2023) (my emphasis)

So whilst Putin [Pu-truschev?] may believe that the current crises in the Middle East has somewhat eclipsed international news about his war with Ukraine, Dan Peleschuk and Olena Harmash, Kylie MacLellan and Muvija M, report that,

"Britain's Foreign Secretary David Cameron (right), on his first trip abroad in his new role, met Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in Kyiv and also travelled to the southern port city of Odesa, a regular target of Russian air strikes.
....
"What I want to say by being here is that we will continue to give you the moral support, the diplomatic support... but above all the military support that you need not just this year and next year, but however long it takes," Cameron said in a video posted by Zelenskiy's office on Thursday. (Reuters : 16 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Reuters : 16 November 2023

And as winter begins to appear on the horizon, Olena Harmash (left) reports that,

" Ukraine's state-owned Naftogaz said on Friday its gas subsidiary had discovered a 'promising' new natural gas deposit in the west of the country.

CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said the find was another step in the oil and gas company's strategy to increase domestic production as Russia's war on Ukraine resets Kyiv's energy strategy.
.....
CEO Oleksiy Chernyshov said the find was another step in the oil and gas company's strategy to increase domestic production as Russia's war on Ukraine resets Kyiv's energy strategy." (Reuters : 17 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Which has rather put a spike in Putin's plans to yet again freeze the citizens of Ukraine during the coming winter.

As reported by Sinéad Baker (right),

"Ukraine and its allies have warned that Russia looks set to continue the tactic it adopted last winter — notably targeting Ukraine's power and water infrastructure with missiles.

That tactic killed many people and led to Ukraine setting up heating points for its citizens.

The UK's defense ministry said last month that Russia appeared to be stockpiling cruise missiles to use against Ukraine's energy infrastructure over the winter. (Business Insider : 13 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Perhaps the most telling indicator of Putin's [Pu-truschev's] fears about Ukraine's advancement against his Russian soldiers comes from the fact that,

"Three of Russia’s border regions and invaded territories, including occupied Crimea, have annulled festivities including large crowds and fireworks.

But this year festivities will be curtailed as Sergey Aksyonov, occupation ruler of Crimea, said: ‘There are no plans to hold large public events in the republic of Crimea for the New Year and Christmas.
....
‘The main priority is safety – but, of course, we will do everything necessary to create a festive mood for Crimeans.

‌’New Year holidays for children will be held in a limited format. Christmas trees will be installed and the streets will be decorated in public areas.’ (Katie Boyden : Metro : 14 November 2023) (my emphasis)

The current catastrophic failures of Putin's [Pu-truschev's] army in his war with Ukraine, together with the resumption of harmonious relations between China and the US, signals that something serious is afoot in the corridors of the Kremlin.

Which poses the question :-

"Who is now in charge in Russia?" 

UPDATE 1 : 20 November 2023

Athena Stavrou and Andy Gregory report that,

"Vladimir Putin will set out Russia’s view of the “deeply unstable world situation” in a shock G20 speech this week, the Kremlin has said, as Ukraine claimed growing numbers of Moscow’s troops were deserting the frontline in Donetsk.

Ukraine’s military has been bracing for a “third wave” of Russian assaults on the key city of Avdiivka – but a spokesperson claimed Moscow was being forced to rely increasingly on penal recruits and reservists due to its soldiers refusing to take part in casualty-heavy assaults." (The Independent : 20 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Haley Britzky,

"US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin (right) arrived in Kyiv on Monday, in a surprise trip to Ukraine to reemphasize the US’ support for the embattled country amid other pressing challenges abroad.

“The message that I bring you today, Mr. President, is the United States of America is with you,” Austin told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. “We will remain with you for the long-haul. What happened here in Ukraine – that not only matters to Ukraine but it matters to the rest of the world. It certainly matters to the United States of America.” (CNN : 20 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin's [Pu-truschev's] sudden decision to address the world comes as James Kilner (left) reports that,

"Ukraine says it has pushed Russian forces back up to five miles (8km) from the Dnipro River after establishing bridgeheads on its eastern bank.

If confirmed, the strategic advance would be one of the most significant in recent months after little gains from either side in the war in Ukraine.

Kyiv says its forces are now battling for control of three Russian-occupied villages south of the river.

A win there would not only be an important military breakthrough but also offer an important morale-boost ahead of winter." (The Telegraph : 19 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin [Pu-truschev]  now seems finally to be slowly raising the flag of surrender under the devastating advances of the Ukraine's armed forces.

 

(to be continued)

Is it Putin or Pu-trushev?

As the war between Israel and Hamas continues to dominate the international headlines, Putin has been forced to choose between support for Hamas and support for Israel.

Timothy Snyder explains that,

"There is good reason ... to believe that Russia is rejoicing in [the war between Israel and Hamas].... Russia is glad to see Israel suffer ... is glad to see the US put in a difficult position as he [Putin] sees it ..." (MSNBC : 3 November 2023) (my emphasis)

MSNBC : 3 November 2023

As also reported by Holly Ellyatt (left),

"Russia has always enjoyed constructive relations with Israel, with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Israel’s Premier Benjamin Netanyahu enjoying a close relationship and vowing to deepen Israeli-Russian ties.

In recent years, however, Russia has become extremely close with Israel’s arch-enemy Iran and has become even more reliant on Tehran since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, relying on the country (among other rogue states) for weapons, predominantly drones, for use in the war. (CNBC : 8 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Hindustan Times : 27 October 2023 : YouTube

Holly Ellyat goes on to report that,

“When it comes down to it, if you think of who Russia really needs, it needs Iran, not least as a continued source of military material, but it also needs Saudi [Arabia] because the two of them together can to a large extent dominate oil pricing globally. In that context, it’s having to sacrifice Israel.” (ibid Holly Ellyatt)

On the oil front, however, Stephanie Stacey and Ian Johnston (left) report that,

"Oil prices tumbled to the lowest in more than three months on Tuesday, reversing all gains made since Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, with hedge funds betting that the conflict will not draw in oil-rich neighbouring countries.
...
“Many [traders] got burnt” last year after overestimating the scale of disruption to oil supplies following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, said Croft. “[So] they want to see that risk really materialise before they start pricing that in . . . I think there are still significant risks, but market participants have decided to move on.” (Financial Times : 7 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Putin must be fuming at this fall in the international price of oil, which simply adds to his economic woes as the Russian economy continues to implode under the weight of the cost of Putin's war with Ukraine.

Adding to Putin's woes in his war with Ukraine, Sakura Murakami and John Geddie report that,

"G7 support for Ukraine in its war with Russia will not be affected by the intensifying Middle East conflict, Japan said on Tuesday as the group's foreign ministers prepared to hold virtual talks with Kyiv during a meeting in Tokyo.
...

"Our commitment to continue strict sanctions against Russia and strong support for Ukraine has not wavered at all, even as the situation in the Middle East intensifies," Japan's foreign minister Yoko Kamikawa (left) told a press conference." (Reuters : 8 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, as reported by Tim McNulty  (right),

"Moment 'Putin's newest warship is destroyed by Ukrainian missile strike at Crimean shipyard'
..
Dramatic new footage suggests Vladimir Putin has lost another warship - this time one of his most modern - in yet another missile strike by Ukrainian forces this past weekend.

Huge explosions struck the Askold - a Karakurt or 'Black Widow' class corvette - in the Zaliv shipyard in annexed Crimea on Saturday night. (Mail Online : 7 November 2023) (my emhasis)

As also reported by Gabriela Baczynska and Tom Balmforth,

"The European Union executive will recommend on Wednesday that the bloc open membership negotiations with Kyiv once it meets outstanding conditions, two EU officials said on Monday, more than 20 months since Russia invaded Ukraine.
...
"The consensus is clear," said a senior French diplomat, adding that support for Ukraine remained "very solid" in the EU and the bloc could not afford to lose out against Russia." (Reuters : 6 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Euronews : 2 November 2023

Pacing angrily around in his bunker, Putin simply cannot understand 'Why?'  support for Ukraine in its war with him simply cannot be eclipsed by what is currently happening in the Middle East.

What Putin simply cannot understand is how,

• the G7 is underscoring their commitment to continue strict sanctions against Russia and strong support for Ukraine, which has not wavered at all, even as the situation in the Middle East intensifies (cf : Sakura Murakami and John Geddie) , and that
  
• support for Ukraine remained "very solid" in the EU and the bloc could not afford to lose out against Russia." (cf : Gabriela Baczynska and Tom Balmforth)

Is it because it is really not Putin supporting Hamas, or continuing with his war against Ukraine, but rather  Pu-trushev i.e. the doppelganger image of Putin with the voice of Nikolai Patrushev (left)?

 

                      

 

(to be continued)

Has the Israel - Hamas war emboldened Putin in his war with Ukraine?

Having dragged their feet in supplying President Zelensky with the necessary arms that he needed to expel Putin's invading army from Ukraine since February of 2022, the US and the EU now find themselves somewhat tied up in political knots in the face of the recent Hamas invasion of Israel.

As reported by Andrew Buncombe (left),

"Joe Biden has suffered a setback after Republicans passed a bill to provide aid to Israel alone rather than link it to funding for Ukraine and other security measures.

In a flexing of his political muscles by new House Speaker Mike Johnson, just a week after he was sworn in, Republicans ignored Mr Biden’s pleas and passed a measure that provides $14.3 billion." (The Daily Telegraph on MSN.com : 3 November 2023 ) (my emphasis) 

 CBS News : 1 November 2023 : YouTube

In similar vein, as reported by Joseph Trevithick (right),

 "More than five months after the possibility of Germany supplying air-launched Taurus KEPD 350 cruise missiles to Ukraine was first put forward, authorities in Berlin have yet to move forward with such a plan. However, if or when that decision is made, it will take around six more months to modify Ukrainian Su-24 Fencer swing-wing strike jets to carry them and train the crews of those aircraft to employ them ..." (The War Zone on Yahoo News.com : 2 November 2023) (my emphasis)

To politically 'mollify' President Zelensky, as reported by Gabriela Baczynska and Ferenc Gaal,

"German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (left) said on Thursday she was confident that the European Union next month would advance Ukraine's bid to join the bloc at a summit seen as a key milestone in Kyiv's efforts to integrate with the West." (Reuters : 2 November 2023) (my emphasis)

And whilst Annalena Baerbock is 'confident' that ALL EU members would advance Ukraine's bid to join the bloc, Pavel Polityuk, Marek Strzelecki and Karol Badohal report that,

"Polish truckers will block several border crossings with Ukraine starting next week in protest at what they say is Ukrainian hauliers' free rein in Poland that is hurting their business, a co-organiser of the protest told Reuters.
...
The protest, planned to start on Nov. 6, comes amid an economic slowdown in Europe and a relaxation of regulations for Ukrainian transport companies in 2022 by the European Union to ease the transport of goods to and out of the country invaded by Russia." (Reuters : 2 November 2023) (my emphasis)

How will this affect the vote of the incoming Polish government, led by Donald Tusk (left), to accelerate Ukraine's bid to join the EU?

Attempting to further tighten the political knots that are now tying up critical military aid for Ukraine's fight against Putin's forces in Ukraine, Putin is now using his political megaphone to blame the Hamas invasion of Israel on the West as well as the anti-Semitic mob that rampaged through Dagestan airport hunting Jews

As reported by Will Stewart,

"Vladimir Putin has hit out at Western 'scum' who he accuses of seeking to 'instigate pogroms' in Russia after an anti-Semetic mob rampaged through Dagestan."
...
Citing no evidence, he accused Ukraine and Western intelligence services of being behind the hate-filled uprising in Makhachkala, capital of Dagestan region." (Mail Online : 31 October 2023) (my emphasis)

Furthermore, according to Putin, "They [the US] need chaos in Gaza and the Middle East", . ( The Economic Times : 1 November 2023 : YouTube) 

 The Economic Times : 1 November 2023 : YouTube 

And as Putin throws his political weight in support of Hamas and against Israel, Paul Kirby reports that,

"Russia bombarded 118 Ukrainian towns and villages in 24 hours, more than on any other day this year, says Ukrainian Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko (left).

He said 10 of Ukraine's 27 regions had come under attack and the onslaught had caused deaths and injuries.

Many of the communities hit were near the front lines in the east and south." (BBC News: 2 November 2023) (my emphasis)

More ominously, as reported by as reported by Andrew Osborn (right),

"President Vladimir Putin on Thursday signed a law withdrawing Russia's ratification of the global treaty banning nuclear weapons tests, a step condemned by the organisation which promotes adherence to the landmark arms control pact.
...
.. some Western arms control experts are concerned that Russia may be inching towards a nuclear test to intimidate and evoke fear amid the Ukraine war.

Putin said on Oct. 5 that he was not ready to say whether or not Russia should resume nuclear testing after calls from some Russian security experts and lawmakers to test a nuclear bomb as a warning to the West." (Reuters : 2 November 2023) (my emphasis)

Euronews : 2 November 2023 : YouTube

Has the Israeli - Hamas war now emboldened Putin in his war with Ukraine?

 

(to be continued)