The Ukrainian gloves are coming off ...

[At the recent Valdai Conference] Mr. Putin portrayed the invasion of Crimea as the corrective to [US] “imperialism.” “The bear will not even bother to ask permission,” he boasted. “Here we consider it master of the taiga, and . . . it will not let anyone have its taiga.” He made it clear that most of Ukraine is part of the “taiga” over which the Kremlin claims dominion — and Ukraine, he warned, “will certainly not be the last” “example of such sorts of conflicts that affect [the] international power balance.” (my emphasis) (October 27 2014 Washington Post)
 

 

And now, despite the EU, US, and Ban-Ki Moon of the UN, denouncing Sunday's farcical elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, Putin is determined on his course of openly waging war against Ukraine. He threatened this at the Valdai conference and, by publicly endorsing the criminal 'elections' in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, is determined to carry this threat through. Already Russian troops and equipment are moving into the rebel-held areas.

U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, U.S. European Command Commander and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supreme allied commander, stated on November 3 that,

"some Russian troop formations were brought closer to the border with Ukraine during the separatist election."

 Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military reported "intensive" movement of troops and equipment from Russia into the separatist controlled parts of eastern Ukraine on Sunday. (2 November 2014)
"There is intensive deployment of military equipment and personnel of the enemy from the territory of the Russian Federation onto territory temporarily controlled by insurgents," Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told a briefing in Kiev.
In Donetsk, AFP reporters saw about 20 trucks, some carrying anti-aircraft guns, heading towards the government-held airport, although it was not clear whether these were new forces.
Several Western news outlets reported witnessing heavy movement of troops near Donetsk. (ABC News 4 November 2014)

It is thus that Poroshenko held a meeting (4 November 2014) of his National Security and Defence Council to discuss, inter alia, removing the 'special' status ( cf. the Minsk Agreement) of the rebel-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine knows that, militarily, it is standing alone against Putin. Putin has shown that he has nothing but contempt for the sanctions currently imposed upon Russia. Also, Putin is once again showing that he has nothing but contempt for the Russian people. If they have to suffer then so be it. As he stated at the Valdai Conference, "To make the economy better we will consolidate society around patriotism and traditional values". So, irrespective of the hardships that sanctions may bring upon the Russian people, it will be the 'patriotic' duty of Russians to tighten their belts. Any criticism of the actions of the Kremlin will henceforth be viewed as un-patriotic.  Thus, as reported by the Moscow Times (3 Nov 2014)

Russia's Media Watchdog Gives Ekho Moskvy Warning for 'Extremist' Coverage of Ukraine Crisis

Ekho Moskvy is one of the leading independent media voices in Russia.

Also, as the  Huff Post reported on 31 Oct 2014,

Russian Media Watchdog Threatens To Shut Down Radio Station Critical Of Putin

 

As reported today (5 Nov 2014) by the Sofia Globe, "Mogherini said the European Union would assess the situation [in eastern Ukraine] and decide to strengthen or ease sanctions imposed on Russia." Is it purely naivety on the part of the EU to constantly present the contradictory carrot or stick 'diplomatic speak' in the face of Putin simply ignoring it all since the very beginning of the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine?

Merkel is using the same type of argument as the 'fragrant' Mogherini. On the one hand she says that the sanctions against Russia should continue (stick), and on the other hand she yet again says that Putin's Minsk Agreement must be abided by (carrot), nothwithstanding that Poroshenko, just yesterday, is himself beginning to tear up this Trojan agreement.

"Merkel said she sees “no reason right now” to lift economic sanctions imposed on Russia, which “isn’t contributing yet as much as we would like” to resolve the crisis. “The Minsk accord should be the basis,” she told a BDA employers’ federation conference in Berlin. ( Daryna Krasnolutska and Volodymyr Verbyany 2014-11-04) (my emphasis)

Bearing in mind that the BDA employers’ federation represents German interest groups in the areas of industry, the tertiary sector, banking, commerce, transport, trade and agriculture (Wikipedia), and that the German economy is currently wobbling, it becomes more and more apparant that Merkel's fixation on Putin's Minsk Agreement is nothing more nor less than her pre-occupation with reviving the trade relations between Germany and Putin's Russia rather than anything to do with the crisis in Ukraine.

German Business Jackboots over Ukraine

One could, indeed, also say that the 'fragrant Mogherini's fixation on Putin's Minsk Agreement is nothing more nor less than expressing the pre-occupation of many members of the EU with reviving the trade relations between themselves and Putin's Russia.
  
Poroshenko could almost say that with friends like Mogherini and Merkel, who are BOTH walking in lock-step, who needs enemies?

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko  has begun to seriously confront Putin by "[ordering] his military chiefs to send in new army units to protect cities in the east and southeast from possible attack by Russian-backed separatists", Interfax news agency said. (4 Nov 2014)

Poroshenko

Let us remind ourselves what Andrei Sannikov (Tuesday 28 October 2014) said viz. that,

"Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance." (my emphasis)

Andrei Sannikov

But, for Poroshenko, there may be light at the end of the tunnel. Where the EU seems to be turning its back on him and the Ukrainian people, the recent US election results is giving him a glimmer of hope in his stand against Putin. Barak Obama's guns have been spiked. His rather poor support for the Ukrainian people may be at an end. Both in the Senate and Congress the Republicans now rule the roost. As reported by Reuters (5 Nov 2014), 

"Republicans rode a wave of voter discontent to seize control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, dealing a punishing blow to President Barack Obama that will limit his legislative agenda and may force him to make a course correction for his last two years in office." (my emphasis)

Republican Thom Tillis and wife Susan react after the results in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz, a conservative firebrand who may run in 2016, told CNN: "The American people, they’re frustrated with what’s happening in Washington, but now the responsibility falls on us to lead." (Reuters)

One can almost hear the groans of the covert Putin supporters in the EU, and the scrambling that must be taking place in the Kremlin.

But who exactly is now scrambling around in the Kremlin? There is a veil behind all the political posturings, warmongering, and belligerence of Putin towards Ukraine, the EU, the US, and the world. It is now time that this veil is lifted.

(to be continued)

Putin's "in your face" invasion of Ukraine begins

Hardly had the criminals in eastern Ukraine carried their stuffed ballot boxes into their contrived polling booths than Putin gives the order to start the invasion of eastern Ukraine. (Nicolas Miletitch with Sebastian Smith in Kiev 12 hours ago 3 Nov 2014)

Ukraine rattled by Russia troop movements as separatists vote

Even as, "Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko blasted the ballot as a "farce that is being conducted under the threat of tanks and guns" and warned Moscow not to follow through on its intention to recognise the result" (Miletich and Smith),

Kiev's military [is claiming that] it had detected "intensive" movement of troops and equipment "from the territory of the Russian Federation". (Miletich and Smith)

Meanwhile Tass, the Russian News Agency, is spreading the lie  (November 02, 23:30) that there were international observers who 'monitored' these criminal elections in Donetsk and Luhansk. Who were these so-called 'international observers'?  Jean-Luc Schanfhauser, a so-called 'observer' from France, was mentioned in this article. Yet no mention of any known international monitoring organization or group. So who, exactly, were these so-called monitors?

Thanks to Anton Shekhovtsov (November 2, 2014) we know who they are:

(L-R ) The leader of the DNR terrorists Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Mateusz Piskorski, 1 November 2014, Donetsk

(L-R) The leader of the DNR terrorists Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Fabrice Beaur (EODE / extreme-right Parti communautaire national-européen), 1 November 2014, Donetsk

The fake 'press' conference of "representatives" of  EU fascist and right-wing Organizations deemed 'international observers' by Tass.

Donbass, 1 November 2014. Second from left is Alessandro Musolino, third is Ewald Stadler. Photo by Alec Luhn

And yet the 'fragrant' Mogherini, now in her role as the EU's new foreign policy chief said on Sunday (Nov 2 2014) that,

"I consider today's 'presidential and parliamentary elections' in Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics' a new obstacle on the path toward peace in Ukraine. The vote is illegal and illegitimate, and the European Union will not recognize it," Mogherini said in a statement after pro-Russian rebels elected a separatist leadership." (my emphasis)

The 'fragrant' Mogherini. EU's new Foreign Policy Chief

The key phrase in what she said and that rather exposes, yet again, her underlying sympathy with Putin, is by referring to the Ukrainian rebel areas as the Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics.

Either she is completely naive or she means to send to Putin the signal that, like Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in particular, he can go ahead and send troops there since they, too, are "independent republics" recognized by the Kremlin, and by the Kremlin alone. This is the excuse that Putin and Medvedev used to continue with Russian expansionism. And this is precisely what Putin is now doing in relation to the rebel areas in eastern Ukraine. Putin has, in effect, been given the 'green light' to send troops into the rebel areas of eastern Ukraine and, as stated before, he will use his Minsk Agreement ( clause 9) to legitimise what he is doing simply by recognising the criminal election that has taken place in the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. 

These rebel elections were designed specifically to take place on the 2nd November, 2014, when the new EU Commission Team of  Jean-Claude Junker were in place.

 

The Position and Role of the High Representative 

The Treaty of Lisbon made the position of the HR one of the most powerful and visible figure in the Union. Federica Mogherini is the third High Representative (HR), referred [to] as EU foreign minister. The description of the job requirements was very broad, as the HR ought to contribute with assistance of the Council to the “formulation, preparation, and implementation of policy decisions” on foreign and security policy matters (Official Journal of the European Union 2007: Article J.16). 
 (Politipond Nov 3 2014)

Let us now remind ourselves of the fact that,

"Putin has said that he has “... high hopes that Italy will give a new impetus to the development of relations between Russia and the European Union”, as reported in Ria Novosti on the 17^th April 2014." (cf. First blog of June 9 2014)

What did Putin know in April 2014 the we did not?

Meanwhile Angela Merkel is apparently finally conceding that Germany 'would accept [a] UK exit from EU' to protect migration rules, (3 Nov 2014) even though George Osborne, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, downplayed these reports emanating from Germany. (3 Nov 2014)

Merkel and Cameron

Whilst this report may seem totally un-related to the current situation in Ukraine, let us not forget that Prime Minister Cameron, together with Poland and the Baltic States, has been the most vociferous in confronting Putin regarding his invasion of Ukraine. Irrespective of Merkel ostensibly taking a 'tough' stand against Putin, with even  Zbigniew Brzezinski  stating that Chancellor Merkel's strategically tough-minded stance against Putin's anti-European adventurism provides the leadership that Europe needs, nonetheless the fact that Merkel is placing all her 'leadership' eggs into the basket of Putin's Minsk Agreement should give us all serious pause for concern. After all, Putin is not 'testing' German airspace as he is doing with Bristish airspace. Furthemore, the added pressure that Merkel must be receiving from German businessmen, given the current wobbly state of the German economy, cannot but help to impel her towards acknowledging a Putin interpretation of Clause 9 of that Minsk Agreement. 

The next few critical days will reveal just how much in lock-step Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini are in relation to Putin accepting the results of the criminal elections that have been held in the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. As the 'fragrant' Mogherini has already stated, " .... parliamentary elections' in Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics'" Indeed has the EU, through the mouth of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, already given Putin the 'green light' for his invasion of Ukraine?

(to be continued)

What is the true reason behind Putin's gas agreement with Ukraine?

The recent agreement by Putin to open up the gates of gas for Ukraine is, in effect, opening up the gates for Russia to earn money that can try to counter the devastating fall in the price of oil that is having a critical impact on the projected income of Russia, thanks to the current glut of oil on the international market and the increasing effect of sanctions against Russia.

Let's stand back for a minute to examine the simple arithmetic of the dependence of the Russian State Budget on Russia's gas and oil income.

• Over 50% of Russia's spending comes from its earnings from selling oil and gas
• The EU accounts for around 40% of Gazprom sales (Clara Weiss 29 Oct 2014)
• Gazprom sales pay for 25% of the state budget (Clara Weiss 29 Oct 2014) 

Theses figures illustrate, as Carol Matlack has pointed out, that

"Plagued by sagging growth, a weakening currency, and rising capital flight, “Russia needs money from its energy exports more than ever,” Shearing says. And there’s no practical way for Moscow to cut off Ukraine’s supply without hurting European customers that get their deliveries through Ukrainian pipelines."

Professor Stern is Director of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

“Without Russian gas, European gas prices would skyrocket. There’d be a massive increase in bills for everybody.” But an abrupt cutoff would be just as dangerous for Moscow, as it nurses a sick economy, Stern says. “It’s the last thing Putin needs.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with ministers to discusst he situationin Ukraine and natural gas transportation to Europe 

Already there are rumblings in the Kremlin. The Russian Finance Minister, Andre Siluanov, (Nov 2 2014) has said that,

" ...currently Russia simply could not afford such spending ($576 billion on defense in the next six years) and added [that] the finance and defense ministries have already started talks on which programs could be financed from state coffers.. " (my emphasis)

Andre Siluanov

As the price of oil continues on a downward spiral,

" ...Russia will struggle to avoid falling into a recession if oil prices are allowed to drop to $80 a barrel — and could face calamity if prices fall below that level." (Tomas Hirst  of Business Insider Oct 22 2014) (my emphasis)

Oil and Gas Two-thirds of Russian exports

So, is Russia doing Ukraine a favour by coming to an agreement about gas sales to Ukraine? But, more importantly, how are Russia's politician proxies in the EU going to handle a probable catastrophic fall in Russia's income, and the political and social upheaval that this could cause amongst the Russian population? 

It has been screamed from the rooftops that Putin enjoys exceedingly high popularity stakes amongst the Russian people. However, even Putin's Global Propaganda Machine, RT, now has to admit that his popularity has fallen to below 50%.

"After reaching an all-time high in August President Putin’s approval rating has fallen in September according to the latest research. The Kremlin says it is a natural fluctuation." (Oct 28 2014)

Putin's popularity falling (RT)

Is it to counteract this fall in his popularity that Putin has, yet again, sent his bombers towards the UK yesterday (Nov 1 2014), simply to impress the Russian people with his 'macho' image?

Or is it, as I have previously stated, that "Putin needs a war, and he knows it. How else is he going to convince the Russian people to 'tighten their belts' as winter approaches." (cf. my blog 30 Oct) Of what use is it if you are snug in a warm flat but do not have access to the comforts of life to which you have become accustomed? So, even though Putin has said  at the recent Valdai conference in Sochi that, ""Russia has made its choice. To make the economy better we will consolidate society around patriotism and traditional values"

he should be mindful of the fact that the laudable sentiments of 'patriotism and society' simply does not 'butter any parsnips'!

Is it therefore any wonder that, "a range of Russians [at the Valdai Conferecnce] expressed their unease about where all this might be heading. Some feared a return to the Soviet days of restrictions on foreign travel." (Bridget Kendall Diplomatic correspondent, BBC News, Sochi 27 Oct 2014)

If telling his bombers to skirt UK airspace is not enough, the "Czech Republic's Security Information Service (BIS) said on Monday (27 Oct 2014) that Moscow had increased the number of spies working in the country, just days after an alleged Russian submarine was spotted in Swedish waters."
Poland has also recently arrested a Russian spy working for the Russian Military Intelligence, GRU. (31 Oct 2014)

Now we await the fallout from what Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine will do on Nov 2 2014. These criminal elections that are to be held in eastern Ukraine on 2 Nov 2014 will be a watershed for Putin's belligerence regarding Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Is Putin lighting the fuse for full scale war in Ukraine

The dust has begun to settle. The Ukrainian elections are over, and governments in the EU and around the world are now confronted with the prickly problem of how to deal with the Russian reaction to the incoming pro-western Ukrainian government. Putin is already expressing his apoplectic anger at the pro-western choice of the Ukrainian people. Even in the face of the failure of the far-right Svoboda party to obtain the necessary 5% threshold to enter the Ukrainian parliament, Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Lavrov, insists on the lie that

"...   promotion of certain radical elements into Ukraine’s parliament (the Verkhovna Rada), such as the Svoboda Party and Radical Party, remains a serious concern .." (RT  Published time: October 27, 2014 22:40)

Lavrov after the Ukrainina election results

As reported in the Jerusalem Post,

"Russian propaganda describing the Ukrainian government as fascist took a hit on Monday when the far-right Svoboda party apparently failed to maintain its place in national politics by receiving less than the 5-percent threshold required to enter the legislature.

Senior figures among the various Jewish communities and organizations expressed pleasure at the widespread support for the pro-western blocs of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, which together took just over 43% of the vote as of Monday evening, with 63% of the ballots counted."

Jews praying in Donetsk

Similarly, Paul Berger (30 October 2014) has pointed out that,

" Ukraine’s parliamentary election delivered a stinging rebuttal to Russia’s claims that this year’s pro-Western revolution was galvanized by fascism and anti-Semitism.
Far-right and nationalist parties, long singled out by Russia as prime evidence of the revolution’s extremist character, suffered a series of stunning setbacks."
  
Why, then, are even Putin's 'academics' railing at a conference held in Moscow last week on the history of Nazi war crimes that,

"There is not much difference, the Russian historians suggested, between the actions of the Ukrainian military in its war against separatist rebels and the atrocities that Hitler’s forces committed during World War II." as reported by Simon Shuster in Moscow. (October 29 2014) 

Shuster also states that, "Vladimir Putin has turned the idea of fascism into a political tool, and now Russian historians are adapting to the Kremlin line." (my emphasis)

Rather presciently, Sven Borsche, the German co-chairman of the conference, began to feel that something was amiss in Moscow as soon as he met his Russian hosts. “All they wanted to talk about was the conflict in Ukraine,” he says.

Sven Borsche

It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

 Marine Le Pen met with State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin (right) and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis)

Neo-Nazi Nick Griffin of the British BNP Party in Russia

Putin's constant narrative that 'fascists and neo-Nazis' are now in control in Ukraine is a narrative that he needs to justify him and his kleptocratic clique remaining in power. Furthermore, as the current sanctions against Russia begin to seriously effect the living standards of ordinary Russians, and the decline in the economy of Russia begins to accelerate, the only alternative open to him is to put Russia on a war footing. Putin needs a war, and he knows it. How else is he going to convince the Russian people to 'tighten their belts' as winter approaches.

That he is ramping up for a war is also evidenced by the fact that NATO is reporting a rise in Russian Military flights over Europe.

 A NATO statement yesterday (29 Oct 2014) stated that,

"...Russian aircraft were detected flying over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, prompting fighter jets from Nato member states to intercept and follow them.
Overall, Nato said it had intercepted Russian aircraft more than 100 times so far this year - three times more than it did last year." (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting about these flights is that these Russian military aircraft " ... pose a potential risk to civilian aviation because the Russian military often does not file flight plans or use on-board transponders." (CNN News 30 Oct 2014)

Even the Swedes are becoming nervous, having spent the past week trying to find a submarine lurking in its waters. Just last month," .. Sweden protested to Moscow after two Russian fighter jets entered its airspace. And across the Baltic in Estonia, an intelligence official working close to the border was abducted by Russian agents and taken to Moscow." 

Ingaro Bay searched by Swedish Navy

"This week a Russian surveillance aircraft took off from Kaliningrad and flew first toward Danish and then Swedish airspace. Finally it entered the airspace of Estonia, before being escorted away by Nato jets.

All this activity is changing security calculations across the region. Sweden has already announced defence spending is going to go up, and Latvia's foreign minister said the Swedish sub search could become a game changer." (BBC News 26 Oct 2014)

Then we have that recent encounter between Norwegian scientists and a Russian submarine. (Ali Kefford 28 Oct 2014)

Is this part of Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to what is known as an area rich in oil and gas? This should be seen alongside the fact that Russia is building a military town in the Arctic.
(Ria Novosti 30/10/2014)

Modular Russian Military Base been built in Arctic

Possibly most dangerous of all, ( if true) does Putin have cancer? And, if so, " ... is his aggressive foreign policy of the past several months ... due to a sick Putin desperately trying to leave behind a legacy", as speculated in the German 'Bild 'and the Polish newspaper 'Fakt' " (Andre F. Puglie Oct. 29 2014), amongst many other news sources?

We know that "Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov was forced to address concerns when Putin cut down on foreign travel and delayed a trip to Japan in 2012. The president was suffering from a "minor sports injury," Ivanov said at the time." (Andre F. Puglie)

Dmitry Peskov ( October 29, 2014), Putin's spokesman, has ridiculed US media reports that the Russian strongman may be suffering from cancer, saying he was fine and that journalists should "shut their trap".

(to be continued)

Putin anger at Ukraine October 26 election results

The Ukrainian election results of 26th October 2014 has been a huge slap in the face for Putin. The people of Ukraine have unanimously rejected being a political 'vassal' of the Kremlin, and are determined to become an integral part of Europe and the EU. As David Stern points out,

"Ukraine's parliamentary elections potentially could completely transform the country's political landscape. The question is, in what way.
Already this is shaping up to be the most pro-Western legislature in the country's post-independence history. Former heavy hitters, like former President Viktor Yanukovych's Party of Regions and the Communist Party, have been sidelined."

And now the deceptive political mask that Putin has worn since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis has finally slipped from his face. The predicted theft by Putin of the 'rebel' controlled area in eastern Ukraine will soon become a reality.

Already the Kremlin is putting in place exactly what it did in Crimea. Legitimise the criminal proxies of Putin in the rebel controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, and then absorb those areas into Russia.

 

As that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister Lavrov has said,

" ..... [the] elections [to be held in the rebel controlled areas on 2nd November 2014] in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions "will be important to legitimise the authorities there".

And what is the EU doing whilst Putin gives the illusion that he is tearing up his own Minsk Agreement? Poland is biting the bullet. As Adam Easton writes from Warsaw,

"There has been a significant shift in the Polish military's strategic thinking in recent months, illustrated in the new National Security Strategy approved last week by the government.

For the first time in more than 20 years it admits that Poland is threatened by war and names Russia as an aggressor in Ukraine. (my emphasis)

Poles are genuinely concerned about the threat of war breaking out. However, the reinforcement of several garrisons in eastern Poland is less significant"

Yet, as Andrei Sannikov points out,

"It looks as if Europe is about to declare its favourite postulate: “Russia is by far more important for us than any other former Soviet country.” That was always the case before the war in Ukraine broke out. Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance.

Andrei Sannikov

Europe cannot understand that this is a war on Europe, not on Ukraine, and that Putin, if not convincingly defeated, will go ahead with his expansionism and revisionism. The ground is laid for that: Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Russian minorities in Baltic states, the Kaliningrad exclave, and now Donbass and Lugansk are more than enough of a major Kremlin offensive in Europe." (my emphasis) 

 For the EU the stakes are getting higher and higher. Even Angela Merkel is finally becoming aware that,

" ... Russia’s actions against Ukraine potentially threaten the “European peace order.” Policy debates in Germany reflect, belatedly and still tentatively, this assessment...."

As Vladimir Socor says, "Merkel is becoming increasingly (and uncharacteristically) critical of Moscow’s actions against Ukraine, and concerned about the implications beyond Ukraine."

 Yet she cannot quite distance herself from Putin's Minsk Agreement.

"Merkel (and any government in this situation) has no choice but to turn to the same Moscow in attempting to salvage the armistice agreements. In standing up for observance of the armistice agreements, Merkel is implicitly and explicitly acting in Ukraine’s interest at this time." (Vladimir Socor)

But is she really acting in Ukraine's interest at this time? Or is she simply wishing that the Ukraine crisis can go away, and that the German economy can reinstate its exports to Russia.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, right, and Vice Chancellor and Economic Minister Sigmar Gabriel arrive for the weekly cabinet meeting in the Federal Chancellery in Berlin, Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2014. (AP Photo/Steffi Loos)

 As reported on ABC News (October 29 2014),

"German exports to Russia dropped by more than a quarter in August over the same month a year ago as sanctions over Ukraine took an increasing toll. The Federal Statistical Office said Wednesday that German exports to Russia dropped 26.3 percent in August to 2.3 billion euros ($2.93 billion).

Over the first eight months of 2014, exports to Russia fell 16.6 percent to 20.3 billion euros, led by a 22.6 percent drop in machinery deliveries. Russia was Germany's 11th biggest market in 2013 but slid to 13th in the first eight months of 2014."

But perhaps most frightening of all is the fact that in 2 days time Federica Mogherini will take on the mantle of the EU's new Foreign Policy Chief. That she is soft on Russia is a well known fact.

"Many EU leaders failed to agree on her candidacy. The Baltic states and Poland saw her as inexperienced and too soft on Russia. Mogherini has also only been Italy's foreign minister since February (2014)." (Daniela Vincenti)

Thus, "[w]hile there is broad support for maintaining the sanctions within the EU, a number of senior politicians, including incoming EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, have questioned whether the measures are affecting Russian President Vladimir Putin's decisions toward Ukraine." (Laurence Norman 29 October 2014)

Putin and the 'fragrant' Mogherini in Moscow July 2014

Like Merkel, she will no doubt be pushing the Minsk Agreement in the full knowledge that Putin, by stating that " ..... [the] elections [to be held in the rebel controlled areas on 2nd November 2014] in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions "will be important to legitimise the authorities there", will simply argue that these 'elections' are fulfilling clause 9 of the Minsk Agreement.

 9. Ensure early local elections in accordance with the law of Ukraine "about local government provisional arrangements in some areas of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts" (law on the special status)

The EU and the US will argue that the elections to be held in the rebel areas on 2nd November 2014 will not be 'in accordance with the law of Ukraine' and, indeed, this will be the case. But, in reality, this is a diplomatic coup for Putin. "Ukraine’s [and the EU's and America's] current predicament is a familiar one to Georgia and Moldova: these countries were forced into a Russian-dictated armistice agreements, which then became their only recourse against Russian abuses of the agreed terms." (Vladimir Socor )

As Andrei Sannikov says, "It looks as if Europe is about to declare its favourite postulate: “Russia is by far more important for us than any other former Soviet country.” That was always the case before the war in Ukraine broke out. Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance." (my emphasis)

(to be continued)

Putin and the emerging truth ... The Valdai Club meeting

"The Russian News and Information Agency RIA Novosti, in association with The Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, the journals Russia Profile and Russia in Global Politics, and the newspaper The Moscow News, has, for many years, hosted the Valdai International Discussion Club meeting.
The 10 year-old Valdai Club aims to create an international expert forum where key international Russia specialists can receive authoritative, reliable information about the growth and development of our country and its society from leading members of the Russian elite."

The Valdai Club can be viewed as Putin's attemp at setting up the Russian equivalent of the Council on Foreign Relations, or the Royal Institute of International Affairs, or the Bilderberg Club, or any of the renowned political discussion clubs/societies that can be found in the west.

At its most recent meeting (24 October 2014) in Sochi, Putin rather dropped a bombshell on the international community in response to a question asked by Piotr Dutkiewicz about Crimea . Putin responed in part as follows:

"Yanukovych called me and said he would like us to meet to talk it over. I agreed. Eventually we agreed to meet in Rostov because it was closer and he did not want to go too far. I was ready to fly to Rostov. However, it turned out he could not go even there. They were beginning to use force against him already, holding him at gunpoint. They were not quite sure where to go.

I will not conceal it; we helped him move to Crimea, where he stayed for a few days. That was when Crimea was still part of Ukraine. However, the situation in Kiev was developing very rapidly and violently, we know what happened, though the broad public may not know – people were killed, they were burned alive there. They came into the office of the Party of Regions, seized the technical workers and killed them, burned them alive in the basement. Under those circumstances, there was no way he could return to Kiev. Everybody forgot about the agreements with the opposition signed by foreign ministers and about our telephone conversations. Yes, I will tell you frankly that he asked us to help him get Russia, which we did. That was all." (my emphasis)

Why, only now, is Putin releasing the following facts:

• Yanukovich was allegedly being held at gunpoint in Kiev
• Yanukovich was helped by him to escape to Crimea
• a massacre allegedly occurred at the office of the Party of Regions in Kiev at which people were burned alive
• Putin knows for certain that this happened
• the broad public may not know about this massacre

More importantly, how could this alleged massacre at the offices of the Party of Regions have been kept secret for so long? Why did the Putin propaganda machine itself keep silent about this massacre? Surely this knowledge about a massacre would have been a huge political coup for Putin, so why the silence? Yet his propaganda machine invented a story about a baby being crucified that was proved to be false.

If this was not bad enough, let's look at what Putin had to say about the US and its allies.

"In a situation where you had domination by one country [ the US] and its allies [the EU], or its satellites rather, the search for global solutions often turned into an attempt to impose their own universal recipes. This group’s ambitions grew so big that they started presenting the policies they put together in their corridors of power as the view of the entire international community. But this is not the case.

The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries. In essence, what was being proposed was the formula: the greater the loyalty towards the world’s sole power centre, the greater this or that ruling regime’s legitimacy." (my emphasis)

What is rather chilling about Putin saying that, "The very notion of ‘national sovereignty’ became a relative value for most countries", is that he has executed this perverse belief  himself by simply taking over Crimea and actively helping in the creation of contrived 'Russian enclaves' in eastern Ukraine, over the dead bodies of thousands of Ukrainian and Russian people.

But we have been here before with Putin.

"Putin has shown by his actions against the Russian people in 1999, and now (2014) in Ukraine, that he can cock a snook at the West because the West does not want to precipitate a fighting war with the current Russian leader. So Putin surrounds Ukraine with a readied army and blatantly foments and stokes dangerous unrest, especially in Eastern Ukraine. After all, if he could cynically kill Russian men, women, and children to bolster his image, why not dismember Ukraine to do exactly the same, irrespective of the consequences?"

Why are so many western and EU politicians, academics and apologists  for Putin, especially so many neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations, so willing to shut their mouth, eyes, and ears to the evil that Putin is unleashing upon Ukraine? (cf. also Anton Shekovtsov and Alina Polyakova)

But the really crucial question is,"Will the Russian public now hear about Putin 'saving' Yanukovich and, more importantly, how will all of this square with Putin not telling them about that alleged massacre in Kiev, when Yanukovich supportes were allegedly 'burnt' to death?

Let us for a moment cast our minds back to what Zhirinovsky said.

"America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia," the veteran Russian nationalist MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky railed during a talk show on Channel One, Russia's most popular TV station."

Today (26 October 2014) we have elections in Ukraine. Let us see what happens before we continue ....

(to be continued)

Putin, the Russian media, and conspiracies

According to David Hoffman (Jan 30 2000), Putin's brief as a KGB agent in Dresden during the last half of the 1980's was,

"to [look] for East Germans who had a plausible reason to travel abroad, such as professors, journalists, scientists, and technicians, for whom there were 'acceptable' legends, or cover stories ..... that they could use to link up with other spies permanently stationed in the West. According to German intelligence specialists who described Putin's task, the goal was stealing western technology or NATO secrets ..."

Acting Russian President Putin speaks to the media (Jan 13 2000) at St. Petersburg University

Putin is thus steeped in using 'cover' stories as a tool of  'deception' to conceal his real goals.

But how do you create a public cover story that you can:

1. actively control as a tool of deception,
2. actively change as circumstances dictate,
3. actively steer in the direction of your ultimate goal,
4. actively re-inforce in the minds of the public upon whom your status and power rests,
5. actively re-inforce in the minds of your adversaries?

In the case of Ukraine; as the events since the invasion of Crimea and the ongoing war in eastern Ukraine have unfolded, Putin has had to:

1. transform his cover story about simply protecting the language and cultural rights of those Russians living in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, as evidenced in particular by his focussing on his Minsk Protocol.
2. ramp up his his 'cover story' to white heat in the minds of the Russian people and the global public by pouring untold millions into his local and global (RT) propaganda machines,
3. sow the seeds of dissention amongst his EU and US adversaries in particular,
4. ensure that the Russian people are 'protected' from gaining access to western versions of his actions by e.g. controlling their access to western media and, most important of all,
5. sow the seeds of western 'conspiracies' against Russia

"America is everywhere, the West is everywhere, Nato is everywhere. Everything is organised against Russia," ( 25 September 2014) the veteran Russian nationalist MP Vladimir Zhirinovsky railed during a talk show on Channel One, Russia's most popular TV station."

Strangely enough, the president of Belarus, Lukashenko, has carried Putin's argument about Novorossiya , which Putin himself used to invade and annex Crimea, to its logical conclusion.

Let us now try to imagine that this argument of Lukashenko is aired on prime-time Russian TV. How will the Russian people react? Will, for example, Khodorkovsky, still agree with the annexation of Crimea by Putin?

M.B. Khordorkovsky

As Gary Kasparov  argues, "When commenting on the scandalous statements made by Alexey Navalny and Mikhail Khodorkovsky that they would not return Crimea to Ukraine, Kasparov emphasized that the conclusion an external observer could reach after this consists of the fact that there is no essential alternative to Putin in Russia." (Glavred)

Alexey Navalny

What is dis-heartening about Kasparov's statement is that there really does seem to be no alternative to Putin. Furthermore, the Russian people are been fed on a diet of  'conspiracy' theories that blames the West for everything that is going wrong in Russia. Even the pulpits are in lock-step with Putin.

(to be continued)

Putin in Milan, and the falling price of oil

On 16th October, ABC News reported that,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin's diplomatic blitz on Ukraine got off to a rocky start Thursday when he kept German Chancellor Angela Merkel waiting for a meeting then showed up in the middle of a dinner with European and Asian leaders."

That initial meeting between Putin and Merkel was cancelled, but then it transpires that the two had a meeting deep into the night over the crisis in Ukraine.

Putin and Merkel in Milan on Thursday 16 October 2014

Merkel had earlier that day met with Poroshenko.

Merkel and Poroshenko in Italy

The next day (Friday 17 October) Putin met with Poroshenko for a breakfast meeting, and they were " joined by some EU leaders, including German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Prime Minister David Cameron of Britain, French President Francois Hollande and Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi."

Putin, Poroshenko, and others meeting in Milan

But all was for naught. The general consensus is that at this meeting,"[a] political solution to the conflict in Ukraine has not yet been found... President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy commented on the talks and urged both Russia and Ukraine to follow through on the peace agreement reached in Minsk, Belarus at the beginning of September.", as reported by Putin's propaganda machine, RT.

Yet again Putin's supporters at that meeting i.e. Merkel, Renzi and Van Rompuy are, like Putin, pushing his agenda that has come to be known as the Minsk Agreement. As I stated on 18th September,

"Key points of this Minsk memorandum include:

• To pull heavy weaponry 15km by each side from the line of contact, creating a 30km security zone
• To ban offensive operations
• To ban flights by combat aircraft over the security zone
• To set up an OSCE monitoring mission
• To withdraw all foreign mercenaries from the conflict zone

Points 2 and 5 are of particular interest. Does it refer to BOTH Russia AND Ukraine? Similarly, if Donetsk and Luhansk are given self-rule, will Ukrainian soldiers also be regarded as "foreign mercenaries" by these entities? Notice that none of these points even mention having a buffer zone along the border between Russia and Ukraine. In effect, the current areas controlled by Russia's proxies in Donetsk and Luhansk will become an integral part of Russia."

Let us also be reminded of who attended this Minsk meeting:

• Swiss diplomat and OSCE representative Heidi Tagliavini
• Former president of Ukraine and Ukrainian representative Leonid Kuchma
• Russian Ambassador to Ukraine and Russian representative Mikhail Zurabov
• Russia's proxies in Eastern Ukraine DPR and LPR leaders Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Ihor Plotnytskiv

No current EU representative, nor the current Ukrainian President, nor the current Ukrainian Prime Minister attended this meeting.

With the exception of Heidi Tagliavini (a Swiss diplomat), this was a meeting rubber-stamping Putin's agenda and attended by those who feared him (Kuchma), depended on his patronage (Mikhail Zurabov), and his Russian criminal cohorts disguised as 'leaders' in eastern Ukraine (Zakharchenko and Plotyntskiv).

Now it only remains to be seen what falls out from that "deep into the night" meeting betweeen Merkel and Putin (16 into 17 October 2014). Let us also not forget that, "... on 31st July 2014, it emerged that Putin and Merkel had secret talks that conceded Crimea to Russia in exchange for ending the war between Ukraine and Russia. And yet the war in eastern Ukraine continues, (October 18 2014) notwithstanding Putin's Minsk Agenda.

Whilst all these meetings were happening in Milan, Putin had something of a headache to contend with. On the same day (17 October) that he met all those leaders for a "breakfast" meeting, the price of oil continued on its downward spiral. Given the 'one trick' energy-exporting nature of Russia's economy, Putin was somewhat apocalyptic about the effects that this fall in the price of oil could have on the world economy. As Tomas Hirst points out,

"Vladimir Putin said Friday that the global economy would collapse if the oil price was allowed to remain at around $80 a barrel for too long.
At a press conference following talks on the Ukrainian crisis in Milan, Italy the Russian president warned that prices as low as $80 a barrel would cause US oil production to crash as well as putting pressure on the rest of the global economy."

Jake Rudnitsky and Henry Meyer  have put it even more succinctly. 

" The decline in oil prices may be depriving Russian President Vladimir Putin of his biggest ally..."

 

 Even more disconcerting, as Pavel Koshin points out,

".. if oil prices drop to $87 per barrel and the dollar-ruble exchange rate trades as high as 40 in 2015. In such a scenario, Russia would have to use money from its Reserve Fund, which comprises about $90 billion, he announced at the Oct. 13 session of the State Duma, the lower chamber of the Russian parliament.

All of these recent developments have spurred the growth of numerous conspiracy theories among the Russian elites and led to a certain amount of consternation. They have also made Russian policymakers reassess their economic policy."

Russia, already awash with 'conspiracy' theories about the war they are having with Ukraine, now has a 'new' conspiracy actor on the stage viz. the price of oil. Just how many 'conspiracy' theories can the Kremlin invent without becoming a hostage to its own conspiracies? If the myth that there is no Russian soldiers actively engaging in a war in eastern Ukraine has taken such a powerful hold on the mind of the ordinary Russian citizen, what will the Kremlin myth that Obama and Saudi Arabia are trying to bring Russia to its knees by forcing the oil price to collapse do to the minds of the Russian people?

(to be continued)