Lifting the veil behind Putin (Part 1)

Finally Putin has publicly dispensed with the lie that Russia is not at war with Ukraine. The war between Ukraine and Russia has finally burst out in the open. Yesterday  "two teenagers died and four were wounded when an artillery shell hit a school playing field as they played football in eastern Ukraine. (BBC News Nov 5 2014)

As reported by Simon Shuster ( Nov. 5, 2014), "[s]ince August, Russia has sent six massive convoys of trucks, hundreds of them in all, into the rebel strongholds, carrying what Moscow claims to be humanitarian aid. None of them have been inspected by Ukrainian authorities, who have lost control of the roads leading into rebel territory from Russia, so the government in Kiev suspects the cargo could be loaded down with heavy weaponry."

Now the criminal mouthpieces of Putin in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine are giving Putin the perfect excuse derived from that Trojan Minsk Agreement of his by stating that,

“The law on the special status and the law on amnesty agreed with the [rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine] were an obligation for Kiev,” they said. Canceling the laws will “in fact cancel the Minsk Protocol.” (Bloomberg 6 Nov 2014) (my emphasis) (note: Unlike the 'fragrant' Mogherini, I do not regard these rebel-held territories as 'republics' of any kind.)

Poroshenko is warning that,

"[the] risk of an invasion is growing, particularly near the Sea of Azov port of Mariupol, and Russia has sent agents and instructors to separatist areas, Markiyan Lubkivsky, an adviser to Ukrainian Security Service head Valentyn Nalyvaychenko, told RBK-Ukraine news service"(6 Nov 2014)

Poroshenko

He further stated that, "Ukraine has set up new military units to protect the eastern cities of Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Mariupol."

While war is being effectively waged by Putin against Ukraine, and Ukrainian children are being killed whilst playing soccer, both Merkel and Mogherini are calling for "sanctions against the rebel leaders in eastern Ukraine."

                  
Merkel:  (Nov 5 2014)

BERLIN: German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Wednesday that the West should consider following disputed elections adding pro-Russian separatists to sanction lists imposed on Moscow over its actions in Ukraine.
“We should take another look at possibly listing certain people who are now in charge in eastern Ukraine after these illegitimate elections,” she told reporters.


Mogherini: (Nov 6 2014)

"The so-called elections were a very negative sign. The situation on the ground is very negative, with people dying yesterday. It is clear that things are not improving....I am convinced that we will need to exercise pressure on Russia. So we need to discuss what kind of next step we take... also in our strategy in terms of sanctions."
It adds fuel to the speculation that the individuals involved in the elections will face travel bans, and possibly economic and financial sanctioning.( Finbarr Bermingham)

The mind simply boggles that these two key individuals in the EU could suggest that slapping travel bans on Putin's criminal proxies in eastern Ukraine, together with POSSIBLY adding them to the existing sanctions list imposed upon Putin's Mafia kleptocratic circle presently in control of Russia; that this will stop the bullets and bombs raining upon Ukrainian citizens in eastern Ukraine. Note, also, that this is a mere possibility, not that it will take place.

Meanwhile, following on from the successes of the Republican Party in gaining control over the Senate and the House of Representatives in America, Senator McCain,  the incoming chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, has stated that,

“Burr and Corker and I will be working closely together on everything,” [he] said. “For example, arms for Ukraine’s [government], examination of our strategy in the Middle East, our assets with regard to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin in the region, China’s continued encroachment in the South China Sea.” (Nov 5 2014 [my emphasis])

Senator McCain

Added to which, President Niinistö of Finland recently said that, "We’re on the brink of a cold war, but we’re not afraid" (YLE Finland Nov 6 2014 as reported by Simon Tisdall in the Guardian)

President Niinistö of Finland

President Niinistö was "speaking on the eve of the fourth gathering of heads of government from the Baltics, Nordics and the UK, Niinistö warned of the possibility of a descent into a Cold War – partly because of frayed relations over the situation in Ukraine, but also because of a failure to grasp the depth of Vladimir Putin’s gripe with the US and the EU." (Simon Tisdall) (my emphasis)

What President Niinistö is telling us is that Finland and the Baltic States are also in the cross hairs of Putin. What is of critical importance is that President Niinistö talks of FRAYED relations over the situation in Ukraine. To whom, exactly, can he be referring? And why are the heads of state of the Baltics, Nordics and the UK meeting under such urgent circumstances? 

Firstly, the 'frayed relations' can only be referring to those members of the EU

• pushing for the implementation of Putin's Trojan Minsk Agreement by Putin himself
• worried about the impact that any call for 'more economic sanctions against Russia' would have on their own economies
• worried about the political fallout in their own countries should Putin's gas exports to their countries be switched off now that winter has arrived
• worried that this may lead to their own political downfall.

 

Secondly, the Baltics, Nordics, and the UK are urgently meeting simply because Putin's bombers are threatening them, NOT Germany, Italy or France, 3 of the other powerhouses in the EU! (cf entry 21 of this Blog)

What is even most disconcerting, in view of Angela Merkel's fixation on Putin's Trojan Minsk Agreement, is that even Gorbachev has now come to Putin's defence. As reported from AFP in the Telegraph, (Nov 6 2014) Gorbachev has said that,

"... he would seek to defend Vladimir Putin's policies when he travels to Germany for ceremonies commemorating the fall of the Berlin Wall this week."

Gorbachev and Putin

Meanwhile, Tom Parfitt in Moscow ( Nov 6 2014) informs us that,

"Vladimir Putin says there was nothing wrong with [the] Soviet Union's pact with Adolf Hitler's Nazi Germany" (my emphasis)

Hitler                                                    Putin        

What is it about this mutual admiration society between Germany and Russia, given the economic status of Germany within the EU? 

Earlier this year Ralf Neukirch (March 31, 2014) reported that,

"Those [Germans] expressing understanding for Russia's move are clearly dominating the Internet forums and talk shows. One former German chancellor, Helmut Schmidt, even declared that the situation in Ukraine is dangerous "because the West has gotten so terribly worked up about it." (my emphasis)

Furthermore, that

" [There is a] long line of general forgiveness [that] extends from Philipp Missfelder, the foreign affairs spokesman for the parliamentary group of Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives, to German feminist intellectual leader Alice Schwarzer, from the left-wing to middle-class households and even deep into the conservative camp. Armin Laschet, who heads Merkel's Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party in the populous state of North Rhine-Westphalia, has even warned against anti-Putin populism."

Feminist figurehead Alice Schwarzer: "It wasn't all that long ago that Nazi Germany invaded Russia."

More recently (Sep 9 2014), German novelist Ingo Schulze, in an interview with Der Spiegel, revealed that:

• Germany and Russia are bound by a history of cultural, political and economic contacts going back to tsarist times.
• Many Russians have German roots due to large-scale German immigration to Russia over the centuries.  This is particularly true in St. Petersburg. (my emphasis)
• Many East Germans speak Russian and were taught that Russia is a good and friendly country.  Resentment against former Russian domination is balanced by sympathy.
• German and Russian leaders have a history of close contacts.  Putin speaks German.  The East German Merkel speaks Russian.  Kohl and Schroeder invested heavily in good relations with Russia.  Schroeder backed the Nord Stream pipeline.

amongst many other reasons. 

When it comes to Putin and Russia it would seem that many Germans, including their political and cultural movers and shakers, simply do not wish to see, speak, or hear anything that exposes Putin as a criminal, and the Russian State as nothing more, nor less, than a Mafia state.

Lifting the veil behind Putin

In the first entry of this blog I wrote:

" .... a deal struck between Putin and the German banks and businessmen in 1992. This deal involved the export of $100m worth of raw materials in exchange for food for the citizens of St Petersburg. The materials were exported, but the food never arrived, as Marina Salye, 

who was put in charge of a city council investigation into the deal, and who fastidiously kept the documents from that time, identified Putin's fingerprints all over it."

I also wrote that,

"Can the country [Italy] that gave us the Italian Mafia, stand up against one of its most ardent emulators, Putin's Russian (FSB) Mafia clan?",

and I included the following video about Putin's Clan. (you can choose English sub-titles)

These, however, is rather small beer in revealing both the criminal nature of Putin, his kleptocratic clan, and the criminal nature of the Russian State.

On 30 September, 2014, a book was published in the US by Professor Karen Dawisha, which has caused a stir in the US. The book is called, "Putin’s Kleptocracy: Who Owns Russia?" 

                                             Professor Karen Dawisha meeting Putin (2007)

As Dave Ghose (9 Sept 2014) explains,
 

"Already, the manuscript is something of a cause célèbre, thanks to its explosive revelations and a brush with censorship that drew the attention of The New York Times and the Washington Post. As The Economist put it this spring, Dawisha’s book “could hardly be more timely and important.” Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, a Russia expert at King’s College London, predicts it will have a big impact. “It will clarify in the minds of many the nature of Putin’s regime,” she says.

Karen Dawisha

Unfortunately people in the UK, and possibly the whole of the EU, will NOT be able to buy locally a copy of this book. Why? From The Economist we learn that it is,

"Because Mrs Dawisha’s publisher [CUP] has got cold feet. She has just received this letter (posted in full in The Economist article) from Cambridge University Press [CUP], saying that the legal risk of publishing the book is too great:

“given the controversial subject matter of the book, and its basic premise that Putin’s power is founded on his links to organised crime, we are not convinced that there is a way to rewrite the book that would give us the necessary comfort.”"

As part of this letter states,

"... President Putin has never been convicted for the crimes or activities which are outlined in the book, and we cannot be sure that any of the other named individuals or organisations have either.  That the allegations may have been published elsewhere is no defence; re-publication of a libellous statement is still libel if it cannot be proven to be true."

A small excerpt from her book will give the reader a flavour of what it contains.

"In July 2014, as relations with Russia deteriorated, British prime minister David Cameron announced he would let the public inquest proceed. At the center of the inquiry was a claim by Litvinenko’s widow that, at the time of his 2006 death by polonium-210 poisoning, he was providing evidence to Spanish authorities about “Russian mafia links to the Kremlin and Vladimir Putin.” The inquest pointed to the tangled web of relations between the Russian state and the mafia, relations that were known to Western governments and much discussed in U.S. cables released by Wikileaks.  (my emphasis) In particular, a series of events in Spain underlined what had become an interlocking network of associations and clan-based politics centered on Putin. First there was the arrest in Spain in 2008 of the reputed leaders of the St. Petersburg-based Tambov-Malyshev organized crime group, including Gennadiy Pemytrov and Aleksandr Malyshev. Then there was the warrant for the arrest of Vladislav Reznik, who was the cochairman of the ruling United Russia Party and chairman of the Duma’s Finance Committee. Finally, there was the revelation that Communications Minister Leonid Reyman owned a beachfront house in the same resort in Majorca as Petrov, who introduced him to potential Spanish partners, and that Reyman himself was under investigation by Spanish authorities.
All those under investigation in Spain came from St. Petersburg, and all were close associates of Putin, as they rose up together from the early 1990s onward."

(to be continued in "Lifting the veil behind Putin (Part 2)"

The Ukrainian gloves are coming off ...

[At the recent Valdai Conference] Mr. Putin portrayed the invasion of Crimea as the corrective to [US] “imperialism.” “The bear will not even bother to ask permission,” he boasted. “Here we consider it master of the taiga, and . . . it will not let anyone have its taiga.” He made it clear that most of Ukraine is part of the “taiga” over which the Kremlin claims dominion — and Ukraine, he warned, “will certainly not be the last” “example of such sorts of conflicts that affect [the] international power balance.” (my emphasis) (October 27 2014 Washington Post)
 

 

And now, despite the EU, US, and Ban-Ki Moon of the UN, denouncing Sunday's farcical elections in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, Putin is determined on his course of openly waging war against Ukraine. He threatened this at the Valdai conference and, by publicly endorsing the criminal 'elections' in the rebel-held territories of eastern Ukraine, is determined to carry this threat through. Already Russian troops and equipment are moving into the rebel-held areas.

U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove, U.S. European Command Commander and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) supreme allied commander, stated on November 3 that,

"some Russian troop formations were brought closer to the border with Ukraine during the separatist election."

 Meanwhile, the Ukrainian military reported "intensive" movement of troops and equipment from Russia into the separatist controlled parts of eastern Ukraine on Sunday. (2 November 2014)
"There is intensive deployment of military equipment and personnel of the enemy from the territory of the Russian Federation onto territory temporarily controlled by insurgents," Ukrainian military spokesman Andriy Lysenko told a briefing in Kiev.
In Donetsk, AFP reporters saw about 20 trucks, some carrying anti-aircraft guns, heading towards the government-held airport, although it was not clear whether these were new forces.
Several Western news outlets reported witnessing heavy movement of troops near Donetsk. (ABC News 4 November 2014)

It is thus that Poroshenko held a meeting (4 November 2014) of his National Security and Defence Council to discuss, inter alia, removing the 'special' status ( cf. the Minsk Agreement) of the rebel-controlled areas in eastern Ukraine.

Ukraine knows that, militarily, it is standing alone against Putin. Putin has shown that he has nothing but contempt for the sanctions currently imposed upon Russia. Also, Putin is once again showing that he has nothing but contempt for the Russian people. If they have to suffer then so be it. As he stated at the Valdai Conference, "To make the economy better we will consolidate society around patriotism and traditional values". So, irrespective of the hardships that sanctions may bring upon the Russian people, it will be the 'patriotic' duty of Russians to tighten their belts. Any criticism of the actions of the Kremlin will henceforth be viewed as un-patriotic.  Thus, as reported by the Moscow Times (3 Nov 2014)

Russia's Media Watchdog Gives Ekho Moskvy Warning for 'Extremist' Coverage of Ukraine Crisis

Ekho Moskvy is one of the leading independent media voices in Russia.

Also, as the  Huff Post reported on 31 Oct 2014,

Russian Media Watchdog Threatens To Shut Down Radio Station Critical Of Putin

 

As reported today (5 Nov 2014) by the Sofia Globe, "Mogherini said the European Union would assess the situation [in eastern Ukraine] and decide to strengthen or ease sanctions imposed on Russia." Is it purely naivety on the part of the EU to constantly present the contradictory carrot or stick 'diplomatic speak' in the face of Putin simply ignoring it all since the very beginning of the Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine?

Merkel is using the same type of argument as the 'fragrant' Mogherini. On the one hand she says that the sanctions against Russia should continue (stick), and on the other hand she yet again says that Putin's Minsk Agreement must be abided by (carrot), nothwithstanding that Poroshenko, just yesterday, is himself beginning to tear up this Trojan agreement.

"Merkel said she sees “no reason right now” to lift economic sanctions imposed on Russia, which “isn’t contributing yet as much as we would like” to resolve the crisis. “The Minsk accord should be the basis,” she told a BDA employers’ federation conference in Berlin. ( Daryna Krasnolutska and Volodymyr Verbyany 2014-11-04) (my emphasis)

Bearing in mind that the BDA employers’ federation represents German interest groups in the areas of industry, the tertiary sector, banking, commerce, transport, trade and agriculture (Wikipedia), and that the German economy is currently wobbling, it becomes more and more apparant that Merkel's fixation on Putin's Minsk Agreement is nothing more nor less than her pre-occupation with reviving the trade relations between Germany and Putin's Russia rather than anything to do with the crisis in Ukraine.

German Business Jackboots over Ukraine

One could, indeed, also say that the 'fragrant Mogherini's fixation on Putin's Minsk Agreement is nothing more nor less than expressing the pre-occupation of many members of the EU with reviving the trade relations between themselves and Putin's Russia.
  
Poroshenko could almost say that with friends like Mogherini and Merkel, who are BOTH walking in lock-step, who needs enemies?

It is therefore no wonder that Poroshenko  has begun to seriously confront Putin by "[ordering] his military chiefs to send in new army units to protect cities in the east and southeast from possible attack by Russian-backed separatists", Interfax news agency said. (4 Nov 2014)

Poroshenko

Let us remind ourselves what Andrei Sannikov (Tuesday 28 October 2014) said viz. that,

"Europe does not want to be disturbed. It doesn’t want to see the dangers to itself beyond Russia’s war in Ukraine. It wants to go back to “business as usual” with Russia as soon as possible. The war is a nuisance. Dead bodies of Ukrainian patriots are a nuisance." (my emphasis)

Andrei Sannikov

But, for Poroshenko, there may be light at the end of the tunnel. Where the EU seems to be turning its back on him and the Ukrainian people, the recent US election results is giving him a glimmer of hope in his stand against Putin. Barak Obama's guns have been spiked. His rather poor support for the Ukrainian people may be at an end. Both in the Senate and Congress the Republicans now rule the roost. As reported by Reuters (5 Nov 2014), 

"Republicans rode a wave of voter discontent to seize control of the U.S. Senate on Tuesday, dealing a punishing blow to President Barack Obama that will limit his legislative agenda and may force him to make a course correction for his last two years in office." (my emphasis)

Republican Thom Tillis and wife Susan react after the results in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Republican Senator Ted Cruz, a conservative firebrand who may run in 2016, told CNN: "The American people, they’re frustrated with what’s happening in Washington, but now the responsibility falls on us to lead." (Reuters)

One can almost hear the groans of the covert Putin supporters in the EU, and the scrambling that must be taking place in the Kremlin.

But who exactly is now scrambling around in the Kremlin? There is a veil behind all the political posturings, warmongering, and belligerence of Putin towards Ukraine, the EU, the US, and the world. It is now time that this veil is lifted.

(to be continued)

Putin's "in your face" invasion of Ukraine begins

Hardly had the criminals in eastern Ukraine carried their stuffed ballot boxes into their contrived polling booths than Putin gives the order to start the invasion of eastern Ukraine. (Nicolas Miletitch with Sebastian Smith in Kiev 12 hours ago 3 Nov 2014)

Ukraine rattled by Russia troop movements as separatists vote

Even as, "Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko blasted the ballot as a "farce that is being conducted under the threat of tanks and guns" and warned Moscow not to follow through on its intention to recognise the result" (Miletich and Smith),

Kiev's military [is claiming that] it had detected "intensive" movement of troops and equipment "from the territory of the Russian Federation". (Miletich and Smith)

Meanwhile Tass, the Russian News Agency, is spreading the lie  (November 02, 23:30) that there were international observers who 'monitored' these criminal elections in Donetsk and Luhansk. Who were these so-called 'international observers'?  Jean-Luc Schanfhauser, a so-called 'observer' from France, was mentioned in this article. Yet no mention of any known international monitoring organization or group. So who, exactly, were these so-called monitors?

Thanks to Anton Shekhovtsov (November 2, 2014) we know who they are:

(L-R ) The leader of the DNR terrorists Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Mateusz Piskorski, 1 November 2014, Donetsk

(L-R) The leader of the DNR terrorists Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Fabrice Beaur (EODE / extreme-right Parti communautaire national-européen), 1 November 2014, Donetsk

The fake 'press' conference of "representatives" of  EU fascist and right-wing Organizations deemed 'international observers' by Tass.

Donbass, 1 November 2014. Second from left is Alessandro Musolino, third is Ewald Stadler. Photo by Alec Luhn

And yet the 'fragrant' Mogherini, now in her role as the EU's new foreign policy chief said on Sunday (Nov 2 2014) that,

"I consider today's 'presidential and parliamentary elections' in Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics' a new obstacle on the path toward peace in Ukraine. The vote is illegal and illegitimate, and the European Union will not recognize it," Mogherini said in a statement after pro-Russian rebels elected a separatist leadership." (my emphasis)

The 'fragrant' Mogherini. EU's new Foreign Policy Chief

The key phrase in what she said and that rather exposes, yet again, her underlying sympathy with Putin, is by referring to the Ukrainian rebel areas as the Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics.

Either she is completely naive or she means to send to Putin the signal that, like Transnistria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia in particular, he can go ahead and send troops there since they, too, are "independent republics" recognized by the Kremlin, and by the Kremlin alone. This is the excuse that Putin and Medvedev used to continue with Russian expansionism. And this is precisely what Putin is now doing in relation to the rebel areas in eastern Ukraine. Putin has, in effect, been given the 'green light' to send troops into the rebel areas of eastern Ukraine and, as stated before, he will use his Minsk Agreement ( clause 9) to legitimise what he is doing simply by recognising the criminal election that has taken place in the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. 

These rebel elections were designed specifically to take place on the 2nd November, 2014, when the new EU Commission Team of  Jean-Claude Junker were in place.

 

The Position and Role of the High Representative 

The Treaty of Lisbon made the position of the HR one of the most powerful and visible figure in the Union. Federica Mogherini is the third High Representative (HR), referred [to] as EU foreign minister. The description of the job requirements was very broad, as the HR ought to contribute with assistance of the Council to the “formulation, preparation, and implementation of policy decisions” on foreign and security policy matters (Official Journal of the European Union 2007: Article J.16). 
 (Politipond Nov 3 2014)

Let us now remind ourselves of the fact that,

"Putin has said that he has “... high hopes that Italy will give a new impetus to the development of relations between Russia and the European Union”, as reported in Ria Novosti on the 17^th April 2014." (cf. First blog of June 9 2014)

What did Putin know in April 2014 the we did not?

Meanwhile Angela Merkel is apparently finally conceding that Germany 'would accept [a] UK exit from EU' to protect migration rules, (3 Nov 2014) even though George Osborne, British Chancellor of the Exchequer, downplayed these reports emanating from Germany. (3 Nov 2014)

Merkel and Cameron

Whilst this report may seem totally un-related to the current situation in Ukraine, let us not forget that Prime Minister Cameron, together with Poland and the Baltic States, has been the most vociferous in confronting Putin regarding his invasion of Ukraine. Irrespective of Merkel ostensibly taking a 'tough' stand against Putin, with even  Zbigniew Brzezinski  stating that Chancellor Merkel's strategically tough-minded stance against Putin's anti-European adventurism provides the leadership that Europe needs, nonetheless the fact that Merkel is placing all her 'leadership' eggs into the basket of Putin's Minsk Agreement should give us all serious pause for concern. After all, Putin is not 'testing' German airspace as he is doing with Bristish airspace. Furthemore, the added pressure that Merkel must be receiving from German businessmen, given the current wobbly state of the German economy, cannot but help to impel her towards acknowledging a Putin interpretation of Clause 9 of that Minsk Agreement. 

The next few critical days will reveal just how much in lock-step Merkel and the 'fragrant' Mogherini are in relation to Putin accepting the results of the criminal elections that have been held in the rebel-held areas of eastern Ukraine. As the 'fragrant' Mogherini has already stated, " .... parliamentary elections' in Donetsk and Luhansk 'People's Republics'" Indeed has the EU, through the mouth of the 'fragrant' Mogherini, already given Putin the 'green light' for his invasion of Ukraine?

(to be continued)

What is the true reason behind Putin's gas agreement with Ukraine?

The recent agreement by Putin to open up the gates of gas for Ukraine is, in effect, opening up the gates for Russia to earn money that can try to counter the devastating fall in the price of oil that is having a critical impact on the projected income of Russia, thanks to the current glut of oil on the international market and the increasing effect of sanctions against Russia.

Let's stand back for a minute to examine the simple arithmetic of the dependence of the Russian State Budget on Russia's gas and oil income.

• Over 50% of Russia's spending comes from its earnings from selling oil and gas
• The EU accounts for around 40% of Gazprom sales (Clara Weiss 29 Oct 2014)
• Gazprom sales pay for 25% of the state budget (Clara Weiss 29 Oct 2014) 

Theses figures illustrate, as Carol Matlack has pointed out, that

"Plagued by sagging growth, a weakening currency, and rising capital flight, “Russia needs money from its energy exports more than ever,” Shearing says. And there’s no practical way for Moscow to cut off Ukraine’s supply without hurting European customers that get their deliveries through Ukrainian pipelines."

Professor Stern is Director of Gas Research at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies

“Without Russian gas, European gas prices would skyrocket. There’d be a massive increase in bills for everybody.” But an abrupt cutoff would be just as dangerous for Moscow, as it nurses a sick economy, Stern says. “It’s the last thing Putin needs.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin holds a meeting with ministers to discusst he situationin Ukraine and natural gas transportation to Europe 

Already there are rumblings in the Kremlin. The Russian Finance Minister, Andre Siluanov, (Nov 2 2014) has said that,

" ...currently Russia simply could not afford such spending ($576 billion on defense in the next six years) and added [that] the finance and defense ministries have already started talks on which programs could be financed from state coffers.. " (my emphasis)

Andre Siluanov

As the price of oil continues on a downward spiral,

" ...Russia will struggle to avoid falling into a recession if oil prices are allowed to drop to $80 a barrel — and could face calamity if prices fall below that level." (Tomas Hirst  of Business Insider Oct 22 2014) (my emphasis)

Oil and Gas Two-thirds of Russian exports

So, is Russia doing Ukraine a favour by coming to an agreement about gas sales to Ukraine? But, more importantly, how are Russia's politician proxies in the EU going to handle a probable catastrophic fall in Russia's income, and the political and social upheaval that this could cause amongst the Russian population? 

It has been screamed from the rooftops that Putin enjoys exceedingly high popularity stakes amongst the Russian people. However, even Putin's Global Propaganda Machine, RT, now has to admit that his popularity has fallen to below 50%.

"After reaching an all-time high in August President Putin’s approval rating has fallen in September according to the latest research. The Kremlin says it is a natural fluctuation." (Oct 28 2014)

Putin's popularity falling (RT)

Is it to counteract this fall in his popularity that Putin has, yet again, sent his bombers towards the UK yesterday (Nov 1 2014), simply to impress the Russian people with his 'macho' image?

Or is it, as I have previously stated, that "Putin needs a war, and he knows it. How else is he going to convince the Russian people to 'tighten their belts' as winter approaches." (cf. my blog 30 Oct) Of what use is it if you are snug in a warm flat but do not have access to the comforts of life to which you have become accustomed? So, even though Putin has said  at the recent Valdai conference in Sochi that, ""Russia has made its choice. To make the economy better we will consolidate society around patriotism and traditional values"

he should be mindful of the fact that the laudable sentiments of 'patriotism and society' simply does not 'butter any parsnips'!

Is it therefore any wonder that, "a range of Russians [at the Valdai Conferecnce] expressed their unease about where all this might be heading. Some feared a return to the Soviet days of restrictions on foreign travel." (Bridget Kendall Diplomatic correspondent, BBC News, Sochi 27 Oct 2014)

If telling his bombers to skirt UK airspace is not enough, the "Czech Republic's Security Information Service (BIS) said on Monday (27 Oct 2014) that Moscow had increased the number of spies working in the country, just days after an alleged Russian submarine was spotted in Swedish waters."
Poland has also recently arrested a Russian spy working for the Russian Military Intelligence, GRU. (31 Oct 2014)

Now we await the fallout from what Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine will do on Nov 2 2014. These criminal elections that are to be held in eastern Ukraine on 2 Nov 2014 will be a watershed for Putin's belligerence regarding Ukraine.

(to be continued)

Is Putin lighting the fuse for full scale war in Ukraine

The dust has begun to settle. The Ukrainian elections are over, and governments in the EU and around the world are now confronted with the prickly problem of how to deal with the Russian reaction to the incoming pro-western Ukrainian government. Putin is already expressing his apoplectic anger at the pro-western choice of the Ukrainian people. Even in the face of the failure of the far-right Svoboda party to obtain the necessary 5% threshold to enter the Ukrainian parliament, Putin's dyed-in-the-wool Soviet Foreign Minister, Lavrov, insists on the lie that

"...   promotion of certain radical elements into Ukraine’s parliament (the Verkhovna Rada), such as the Svoboda Party and Radical Party, remains a serious concern .." (RT  Published time: October 27, 2014 22:40)

Lavrov after the Ukrainina election results

As reported in the Jerusalem Post,

"Russian propaganda describing the Ukrainian government as fascist took a hit on Monday when the far-right Svoboda party apparently failed to maintain its place in national politics by receiving less than the 5-percent threshold required to enter the legislature.

Senior figures among the various Jewish communities and organizations expressed pleasure at the widespread support for the pro-western blocs of President Petro Poroshenko and Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk, which together took just over 43% of the vote as of Monday evening, with 63% of the ballots counted."

Jews praying in Donetsk

Similarly, Paul Berger (30 October 2014) has pointed out that,

" Ukraine’s parliamentary election delivered a stinging rebuttal to Russia’s claims that this year’s pro-Western revolution was galvanized by fascism and anti-Semitism.
Far-right and nationalist parties, long singled out by Russia as prime evidence of the revolution’s extremist character, suffered a series of stunning setbacks."
  
Why, then, are even Putin's 'academics' railing at a conference held in Moscow last week on the history of Nazi war crimes that,

"There is not much difference, the Russian historians suggested, between the actions of the Ukrainian military in its war against separatist rebels and the atrocities that Hitler’s forces committed during World War II." as reported by Simon Shuster in Moscow. (October 29 2014) 

Shuster also states that, "Vladimir Putin has turned the idea of fascism into a political tool, and now Russian historians are adapting to the Kremlin line." (my emphasis)

Rather presciently, Sven Borsche, the German co-chairman of the conference, began to feel that something was amiss in Moscow as soon as he met his Russian hosts. “All they wanted to talk about was the conflict in Ukraine,” he says.

Sven Borsche

It is rather ironic that the Kremlin and Putin's propaganda machines are constantly propagating the lie about 'fascists and neo-Nazis' being elected to the Ukrainian parliament, whilst at the same time rolling out the red carpet for neo-Nazi and right-wing European organizations.

 Marine Le Pen met with State Duma Speaker Sergei Naryshkin (right) and Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin

Thus it was that Marine Le Pen, the neo-Nazi leader of France, was treated like a cabinet minister by top Russian politicians, whilst the British Fascist leader of the BNP party endorsed Russian elections in Russia. As John Vinocur has commented," Marine Le Pen wants to neuter the EU as a political force. The Kremlin couldn't ask for a better ally." (my emphasis)

Neo-Nazi Nick Griffin of the British BNP Party in Russia

Putin's constant narrative that 'fascists and neo-Nazis' are now in control in Ukraine is a narrative that he needs to justify him and his kleptocratic clique remaining in power. Furthermore, as the current sanctions against Russia begin to seriously effect the living standards of ordinary Russians, and the decline in the economy of Russia begins to accelerate, the only alternative open to him is to put Russia on a war footing. Putin needs a war, and he knows it. How else is he going to convince the Russian people to 'tighten their belts' as winter approaches.

That he is ramping up for a war is also evidenced by the fact that NATO is reporting a rise in Russian Military flights over Europe.

 A NATO statement yesterday (29 Oct 2014) stated that,

"...Russian aircraft were detected flying over the Black Sea, the Baltic Sea, the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean, prompting fighter jets from Nato member states to intercept and follow them.
Overall, Nato said it had intercepted Russian aircraft more than 100 times so far this year - three times more than it did last year." (my emphasis)

What is disconcerting about these flights is that these Russian military aircraft " ... pose a potential risk to civilian aviation because the Russian military often does not file flight plans or use on-board transponders." (CNN News 30 Oct 2014)

Even the Swedes are becoming nervous, having spent the past week trying to find a submarine lurking in its waters. Just last month," .. Sweden protested to Moscow after two Russian fighter jets entered its airspace. And across the Baltic in Estonia, an intelligence official working close to the border was abducted by Russian agents and taken to Moscow." 

Ingaro Bay searched by Swedish Navy

"This week a Russian surveillance aircraft took off from Kaliningrad and flew first toward Danish and then Swedish airspace. Finally it entered the airspace of Estonia, before being escorted away by Nato jets.

All this activity is changing security calculations across the region. Sweden has already announced defence spending is going to go up, and Latvia's foreign minister said the Swedish sub search could become a game changer." (BBC News 26 Oct 2014)

Then we have that recent encounter between Norwegian scientists and a Russian submarine. (Ali Kefford 28 Oct 2014)

Is this part of Putin's plan to send 6000 troops to what is known as an area rich in oil and gas? This should be seen alongside the fact that Russia is building a military town in the Arctic.
(Ria Novosti 30/10/2014)

Modular Russian Military Base been built in Arctic

Possibly most dangerous of all, ( if true) does Putin have cancer? And, if so, " ... is his aggressive foreign policy of the past several months ... due to a sick Putin desperately trying to leave behind a legacy", as speculated in the German 'Bild 'and the Polish newspaper 'Fakt' " (Andre F. Puglie Oct. 29 2014), amongst many other news sources?

We know that "Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergei Ivanov was forced to address concerns when Putin cut down on foreign travel and delayed a trip to Japan in 2012. The president was suffering from a "minor sports injury," Ivanov said at the time." (Andre F. Puglie)

Dmitry Peskov ( October 29, 2014), Putin's spokesman, has ridiculed US media reports that the Russian strongman may be suffering from cancer, saying he was fine and that journalists should "shut their trap".

(to be continued)