Are tiny cracks appearing amongst Putin's kleptocratic clique?

"On Tuesday, the Ukrainian army accused separatists in the east of Ukraine, where there are ongoing disputes over territory, of violating an agreed day-long ceasefire known as the "Day of Silence." A longer peace is still "a long way off," according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. 
A sigh of relief was breathed when Russia resumed shipments of natural gas to its neighbour – albeit at a much higher cost -- in time to keep households and industry going. Yet it is still unclear how far Russia, where the economy is also in trouble after sanctions imposed by the West, is prepared to go to defend its interests across the Ukrainian border.
- By CNBC's Catherine Boyle."(3 Hours Ago: Dec 10, 2014) (my emphasis)

In my last blog-entry I mentioned that Putin was rather nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday. And today Putin has decided to resume gas shipments to Ukraine, but at much higher cost. At the same time, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister Lavrov states that," A longer peace is still "a long way off".

The question that we have to ask ourselves is, " Why is Lavrov now the 'hawk' to Putin's 'dove'?" What, exactly, made Putin nervous when greeting Hollande last Sunday? Why, given the parlous state of the Ukrainian economy, has Putin decided to keep the Ukrainians warm during this winter, albeit at a much higher cost?

There are three critical developments that may account for for this sudden mood-swing of both Putin and Lavrov.

Latvian troops preparing for live-fire exercises

• The 'ceasefire' that was supposed to commence on Tuesday 9 Dec, 2014, seems to be faltering. Yesterday 3 people were killed ,"while European nations raised new fears about Russia's "unprecedented" military build-up". ....More than 30 Russian aircraft were intercepted in international airspace "over the Baltic Sea and off the coast of Norway" on Monday, a NATO spokesman said, whilst Sweden [may be] recalling around 7,500 recent veterans to form a reserve voluntary force. "For a few days now, there has been unprecedented Russian activity, from its Baltic fleet to flights over the Baltic sea," Defence Minister Tomasz Siemoniak told Polish broadcaster TVN24. (Oleksander Stachevski and Dmitri Gorschkov : AFP : Dec 12, 2014) (my emphasis)
• Putin's propaganda machine in Russia may be faltering. " ..... [J]ust as with Soviet propaganda, which blamed outside enemies for the country’s failures, resentment is vulnerable to reality. When television pictures contradict people’s personal experience, they stop working. “You can’t really ‘sell’ anything to people, that they don’t wish to buy,” says one television boss. As the ratings show, Russians are tiring of news about Western aggression. (The Economist : Dec 13th 2014 | MOSCOW |)(my emphasis) Thus, "Over the past nine months opinion polls find that support for the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine have fallen from 74% to 23%." (ibid The Economist)
• What most Russians really need is news about the unfolding economic crisis that Mr Putin’s message from above largely ignored. The continuing fall in the rouble, eroding living standards and a sharp rise in food prices are worrying people far more than the fate of separatists in Ukraine. Now that sanctions are starting to bite, enthusiasm for war and isolation is diminishing fast. “Cognitive consonance between propaganda and people’s self-feel does not withstand external shocks,” says Mikhail Dmitriev, head of New Economic Growth, a think-tank. (ibid The Economist) (my emphasis)

Sunday, December 7th 2014  Buckwheat Panic grips Russians

Prices have gone up 30 to 40 percent for basic foods such as eggs, pork, chicken, frozen fish and sausage since the counter sanctions were imposed.  Putin simply cannot hide these facts from the Russian people. (Marina Lapenkova, AFP : Dec. 7, 2014)

Meanwhile Medvedev now enters the scene by on the one hand wishing to take Ukraine to court over alleged non-payment of gas bills, whilst on the other hand stressing that there is always room for compromise. ( RT : December 10, 2014)

Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev

This seems to 'mirror' the Lavrov - Putin  'carrot and stick' approach. But what, really, does this seeming confusion tell us? Are tiny cracks beginning to appear within Putin's "kleptocratic clan"? Is all that 'military muscle-flexing' of Putin really all for show? 

This whole brouhaha about non-payment of gas bills on the part of Ukraine has to be seen against the backdrop of :

• the billions of dollars that Yanukovich stole from the coffers of Ukraine, and that is now tucked away in Russian banks. This is estimated at $100 billion. U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said  ..... that Washington was determined to help Kiev find billions of dollars it says were stolen by Yanukovych and his aides. “We are determined to hold accountable those who were responsible for the theft of these Ukrainian assets,” he said. Makhnitsky said that Yanukovych and his people had spirited $32 billion in cash across the border in trucks as his power crumbled early this year (The Japan Times ) Putin's kleptocratic clique knows about this stolen money (and gold!) . So what is Putin doing about this? Absolutely nothing! Stolen Ukrainian money is now propping up Russian banks! AND MEDVEDEV WANTS TO TALK ABOUT $3.1 billion ostensibly owed to Russia for non-payment of gas bills by Ukraine???
• The money that Russia OWES Ukraine for the supply of gas, electricity, and water to Ukrainian Crimea and that is now militarily occupied by Russia

What, therefore, is this 'taking to court of Ukraine' really all about? The money is there, in Russia, propping up Russian banks. Is it any wonder that Putin, in his speech last Thursday, stated that:

"I propose a full amnesty for capital returning to Russia. I stress, full amnesty. Of course, it is essential to explain to the people who will make these decisions what full amnesty means. It means that if a person legalises his holdings and property in Russia, he will receive firm legal guarantees that he will not be summoned to various agencies, including law enforcement agencies, that they will not “put the squeeze” on him, that he will not be asked about the sources of his capital and methods of its acquisition, that he will not be prosecuted or face administrative liability, and that he will not be questioned by the tax service or law enforcement agencies. Let’s do this now, but only once. Everyone who wants to come to Russia should be given this opportunity." (blog : Dec 5, 2014)

Of course, all of this also applies to Yanukovich!

The holiday season is now upon Ukraine and Russia. For Russians, in particular, the hard facts of their rapidly escalating prices in food, and the emptiness of the shelves of those imported foods that they have become used to, cannot be glossed over by Putin. Putin's "fine words will simply butter no parsnips" during this holiday season.

(to be continued)

Putin's nervousness ....

The dust stirred up by Putin's speech to the Russian people last Thursday (Dec. 4, 2014) has begun to settle. In his speech,

"Putin has signaled that Moscow sees the world as a hostile place." (Stratfor-analysts : Marketwatch Dec. 5, 2014)

Countering this perceived 'hostility', Putin peppered his speech with fervent Russian nationalist sentiments, as when regarding the [Ukrainian] Crimea as having,

" ... sacral importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism." (Kremlin : Dec. 4, 2014) which has, no doubt, stirred up greater nationalist passions in the breasts of many Russian people.

In effect, Putin can be said to have fired the first salvo in putting Russia on an economic 'war-footing' as sanctions begin to bite deeper, and the price of a barrel of oil continues its downward spiral. As reported in the Asian Tribune,

 "The situation in Russia, meanwhile, is quite bleak too: rouble is in free fall; economy is on the brink of sliding into recession; the West is determined to impose more punitive sanction in proportion to the scale of [the] incursion in Eastern Ukraine." ( Sun, 2014-07-12)

Against this backdrop, as reported by Vladimir Soldatkin of  Reuters,

"French President Francois Hollande ..  during his stopover at a Moscow airport after a trip to Kazakhstan ... said after  crisis talks with Vladimir Putin on Saturday that a ceasefire could take hold in eastern Ukraine in the next few days. ....

Putin, who looked nervous before he greeted Hollande with a handshake, said they had held detailed discussions on ending the violence in which more than 4,300 people have been killed in mainly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine since April." (Sat Dec 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

There are 3 points that need to be emphasised at this stage:

• Hollande arrived in Moscow from Kazakhstan
• after the 'crisis' talks with Putin, Hollande spoke of a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine that 'could' take hold next week 

•  Putin was nervous before he greeted Hollande

Firstly, "[w]hat Putin is doing in Ukraine is also having repercussions in Kazakhstan, a member of Putin's Eurasian Economic Union.

As reported by Abdujalil Abdurasulov (BBC: 9 November 2014) from northern Kazakhstan,

"The crisis in Ukraine has prompted many [in Kazakhstan]  to ask who the Russian community in Kazakhstan would support if relations with Moscow turned sour." (ibid Abdujalil Abdurasulov) (my emphasis). Why is this so?

Secondly, why are we to believe that Putin may finally order his proxies in eastern Ukraine to adhere to a 'ceasefire' next week when, even after that Minsk Agreement of  5 September 2014, Putin has continued to supply the rebels in eastern Ukraine with both weapons and Russian soldiers, and who have simply trampled all over the Minsk 'ceasefire' agreement with his blessing? 

And finally, why was 'strongman' Putin nervous before greeting Hollande, especially after that blistering 'tough-guy' nationalist speech that he gave to the Russian people but a few days ago?

It would be an exercise in futility to try and second-guess any answers to these questions. After all, the pivot upon which the world of diplomacy rotates is the devious art of concealment. All that we can do is simply to 'flag' them up.

Whilst these question remain unanswered, ALL the people of  Ukraine are suffering because of the war that has been instituted by Russia between itself and Ukraine.

There is a serious electricity crisis in Ukraine, brought about partly by the breakdown in receiving coal from South Africa due to,

"[t]he head of a Ukrainian state energy firm  ... been arrested on suspicion of embezzlement in relation to the [coal] deal [with South Africa]. Ukraine’s coal mining has been disrupted by separatist conflict, and the the absence of Russian gas imports since June has resulted in country-wide mass electricity cuts [INCLUDING CRIMEA]. That is why the government turned to South Africa to boost supplies, but the imported coal turned out to be unfit for purpose." (Yahoo News : Dec. 6, 2014) (my emphasis)

Ukraine has now been forced,

" to ask Russia to supply electricity to make up for energy shortages caused by the loss of control to pro-Russian separatists of the country's coal-producing east."

But Russia will only supply Ukraine with electricity,
" if Kiev diverted some of the supplies to Crimea -- a strategic peninsula that Russia invaded and annexed in March."

To which Ukraine has responded,

"That is their condition," Demchyshyn told reporters. "We are not importing any electricity from Russia right now."(World | Agence France-Presse | Updated: December 06, 2014)

Meanwhile, in Donetsk and other rebel-held territories in eastern Ukraine,

"[w]inter ... is likely to be harsh for those who have remained, as industry has ground to a halt, military confrontation continues and supplies of food and energy are unreliable.
The separatist authorities have a dilemma: they have declared independence from Ukraine, but unlike with the Crimea peninsula, Russia has shown little appetite for formally taking over the east. This leaves the rebel authorities unsure where to turn for the cash to dole out benefits, pensions and other payments." (The Guardian, Wednesday 26 November 2014) (my emphasis)  Added to which, it is also suffering from electricity problems.

Furthermore, the UNHCR has

"... [opened up] a network of UNHCR-sponsored collective centres in Ukraine where aid workers distribute essential supplies to some of the 490,000 people uprooted by the fighting and forced to seek shelter elsewhere in the country. (Rafał Kostrzyński in Kharkiv, Ukraine : 04 December 2014) (my emphasis)


If the Ukrainians are suffering from hardships due to a lack of electricity and warmth during the onset of the freezing winter months; Russians are also facing hardships on the front of spiralling food prices and increasing economic uncertainties.

Worryingly are the price rises of  those staple Russian foods produced by Russia itself.
 
 "Among the specific products hit the hardest, fresh tomato prices rose by 35%, white cabbage by 24%, and potatoes by 21%. But the biggest rise of all was recorded in buckwheat, with average prices soaring by more than 50% in the year to November. Since Russia produces most of this staple itself, this is not down to sanctions, at least directly." (Reuters/Mikhail Voskresensky : December 5, 2014)

The critical question is this,

"How, exactly, does Putin sleep at night knowing that his actions are the cause of all this suffering? Was that 'nervousness' when he greeted Hollande yesterday, a tiny glimmer of remorse for all the suffering that he has caused? Or was it due to something completely different."

(to be continued)