Will Putin now be confronted with a UN Peacekeeping force?

Yesterday (April 08, 2015) Putin's propaganda machine, RT, informed us that,

"Moscow is urging the removal of all foreign military formations from Ukraine, including the instructors from the United States and NATO, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin (left) said in an interview with the Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily." (RT : April 08, 2015)

“We know that hundreds of US and NATO servicemen are planning to come to Ukraine to train the National Guard. The training camps are being set up not only in western Ukraine, but also in other parts of the country. This is a dangerous process. We would push for all foreign and illegal military units to be removed from Ukraine,” Karasin said.(ibid RT) (my emphasis)

This is no doubt a response to Polish, Latvian, English, NATO, and American trainers who have been helping to build up the efficiency of the Ukrainian forces over the last weeks.

It is obviously also a response to,

"Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk (right) [who] has [recently] said that the Ukrainian government will sign an agreement on military and technical cooperation with NATO, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will seek to meet NATO standards." (KyivPost : April 8, 2015) (my emphasis)

Meanwhile, Putin continues to build up his forces on the Russia-Ukrainian border, whilst flooding eastern Ukraine with sophisticated military equipment and Russian generals who are training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine.

As Nataliya Vasilyeva (left) has informed us,

"On a recent spring morning, an important visitor watched Russian-backed rebels conduct infantry maneuvers in eastern Ukraine (right).

"The general is very pleased," rebel commander Ostap Cherny told his troops, referring to the figure in camouflage encircled by guards.

The man — almost certainly a Russian military officer — became alarmed when he saw two journalists approach. His entourage shielded him — forbidding photos — and the group sped off in a motorcade, the "general" safely inside a black Toyota SUV with no license plates." (AP [Associated Press] : Yahoo News : 3 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

Does Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin include those Russian generals training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine amongst his, "foreign and illegal military units that should be removed from Ukraine?

And what about Putin's "illegal military units and sophisticated Russian weaponry" that are still flooding across the Russian border into eastern Ukraine?

As Tom Parfitt informed us but a week ago,

"Russian tanks and soldiers have been “decisive” in winning key battles against government troops in eastern Ukraine, the commander of a separatist “special forces” detachment has admitted.

The Kremlin denies sending men and military vehicles to fight in Ukraine, but Dmitry Sapozhnikov (right) told the BBC that regular army units sent from Russia and commanded by Russian officers were key in seizing the strategic town of Debaltseve in February." (The Telegraph : 31 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)

The recent escalation in Putin's Russian troop movements and military equipment into eastern Ukraine, as well as the call-up of his  rebel proxies in preparation for an imminent offensive against Mariupol, has been closely monitored by Ukraine over the last few days.

As recently as Mar. 27, 2015, Senator McCain was warning of an imminent attack on Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in eastern Ukraine.

Christopher Harress (left) now also informs us that,

"In the villages around the port city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine, pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine troops continue to exchange fire, as both sides accuse the other of using heavy artillery and tanks. The Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council has said that pro-Russian rebels are increasing their combat readiness in preparation for an attack on the port city of Mariupol. Should such an attack take place, the Minsk II agreement governing the current ceasefire would most likely collapse, leading the region back into a full-scale conflict. " (International Business Times : April 08 2015)

To try to defuse this military build-up by both the Ukrainian and Russian forces,

"Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin is now in Paris where he's engaged in preparations for a meeting of 'Normandy Four' foreign ministers with a [UN] peacekeeping mission in Donbas being on the top of the agenda." (Unian : 08.04.2015) (my emphasis)

                   L-R: Lavrov, Steinmeister, Klimkin, and Fabius

This meeting will be held in Berlin on April 13 but it can be assumed from the outset that Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, will be dead-set against any UN peacekeeping mission entering eastern Ukraine, let alone patrolling the porous border between eastern Ukraine and Russia.

France now seems to be closing ranks with Ukraine. Fabius has stated that,

"France's position remains unchanged – we insist on the full-scale implementation of all the clauses of the Minsk[2] agreement according to the schedule," he added." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

To cement this closing of ranks between France and Ukraine,

"Fabius also announced a visit of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, who are to arrive in Paris on April 22." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)

It would now be interesting to see just how the budding 'cameraderie, between Putin and Alexis Tsipras (left), the Greek prime minister, has affected the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeister.

"Mr Putin said the leaders had discussed 'various ways of co-operating, including major projects in energy' and said Russia 'could provide loans' for projects including a potential gas pipeline via Turkey, which was shelved last year amid deteriorating relations between Mr Putin and the EU." (Tamara Cohen : Mail Online : 9 April 2015) (my emphasis)

Will Steinmeister now also close ranks with Klimin and Fabius? Will these three now confront Lavrov with their agreeing on a UN peacekeeping mission?

(to be continued)

Putin, the Greek, and the Cossacks

In 2013, Ellen Barry informed us that,

"STAVROPOL, Russia — Outside this city’s police headquarters on a recent night, a priest in a purple velvet hat and gold stole moved from one man to the next, offering a cross to be kissed and drenching their faces with holy water from a long brush.

And so began another night of law enforcement as Cossacks, the fierce horsemen who once secured the frontier for the Russian empire, marched out to join the police patrolling the city.

In his third term, President Vladimir V. Putin has offered one clear new direction for the country: the development of a conservative, nationalist ideology. Cossacks have emerged as a kind of mascot, with growing financial and political support." (New York Times : March 16, 2013) (my emphasis)

Two years later, Nicholas Miletitch informs us that in the town of Perevalsk in eastern Ukraine,

"The young Cossack fighter gripped his automatic rifle as he swore he would defend the town of Perevalsk in war-torn east Ukraine that he and his comrades now control......

But the enemy the Cossacks fear most is the enemy within -- the separatist leaders of the self-declared Lugansk People's Republic (LNR) who they refuse to obey.

"We're under the orders of our Russian brothers of the Great Army of the Don Cossacks. We don't recognise the authority of the LNR," said the soldier." (AFP (Yahoo News) : Tue., April 7, 2015) (my emphasis)

Needless to say,

"Igor Plotnitsky (left), head of the Lugansk rebels battling the Kiev government, set an April 4 deadline for the Cossacks to either join the LNR's military wing, hand over their weapons -- or be outlawed." (ibid Nicholas Miletitch) (my emphasis)

What this 'fighting amongst thieves' (sic!) reveals is the nature of the 'hybrid' war that Putin has, unintentionally, set off amongst his own proxies in the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. To minimise the serious damage that this 'fighting amongst thieves' could do to his plan for totally undermining both the government and the economy of Ukraine, Putin has to import yet more young Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine to keep the flame of his war with Ukraine constantly burning.

On the economic horizon, Putin may be uttering a rather small sigh of relief.

Anna Andrianova (right) informs us that,

“The economy is gradually entering a recession,” said Vladimir Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow. “It’s difficult to say when a reversal will happen. I expect that it may happen in the course of the coming three to six months.” (Bloomberg Business : April 1, 2015) (my emphasis)

She further informs us that,

“The modest rate of economic expansion last year speaks of the anemic internal demand environment born out of sticky inflation and high debt servicing costs,” Johannesburg-based Tradition Analytics said in an e-mailed research note. “Global growth, meanwhile, remains uneven and is therefore unlikely to meaningfully boost GDP.” (ibid Anna Andrianova) (my emphasis)

Russian consumers are, however, finding it tough going. 

Shaun Walker in Simferopol informs us that,

"Crimea’s residents have only two options when they want to buy something nowadays: cash or Pro-100. .....

[Pro-100 is] the first phase of Russia’s plan to launch its own domestic credit card system – has been introduced ahead of schedule in Crimea to fill the gap......

Pro-100 is the only way to get cash in Crimea. International money transfer systems have also pulled out of the region, and even people with Russian bank cards cannot make transfers or withdraw money in Crimea.

“A friend in the US needed to transfer me some money, and he had to send it by wire to another friend in Moscow, who withdrew the money and then found someone flying here from Moscow to bring it to me by hand,” said one exasperated resident." (The Guardian : Tuesday 7 April 2015) (my emphasis)

If the people in Ukrainian Crimea are having difficulty getting hold of their electronic roubles, how much more so is it in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine.

One has to wonder whether Putin is coming to the full realization of the economic millstone that he has placed around his neck by annexing Ukrainian Crimea and incorporating the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine into the rouble monetary system.

Ivan Nechepurenko tells us that an unidentified source, cited by Forbes, who participated in the[Minsk2]  meeting [in February],

"According to the source, Putin recounted the overnight Minsk negotiations, saying: “[Poroshenko (right)] told me directly: 'Take the Donbass.' I replied: 'Are you out of your mind? I don't need the Donbass. If you don't need it, declare it independent,'” Forbes reported. .....

The source said Poroshenko had asked Putin to take financial responsibility for the region. Putin replied that would only be possible if the Donbass joined Russia and that as long as the region remained part of Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities were tasked with such matters." (Moscow Times : Apr. 06 2015)

However,

"The head of the board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin (left), said Monday the comments published by Forbes were “a distortion” of Putin's words, RIA Novosti reported.
“The topic of discussion was relations between Russia and Ukraine and the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but I am not going to repeat [Putin's] words. … [The Forbes report] is an incorrect interpretation,” Shokhin said." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)

The $64 question is, "Why has Forbes suddenly published this information?(06.04.2015)"
 
 Whilst the Ukrainian economy is in dire straits, nonetheless it is receiving critical financial assistance from the West, including from the IMF. Putin, on the other hand, has no access to international financial resources and thus the Russian consumer is paying a hefty economic price for his imperial ambitions.

Putin may be toying with the current Greek Prime minister, Alexis Tsipras (right), as he goes cap-in-hand to Putin to save his political skin as the Greek economy splutters on the edge of economic oblivion.

But even the rather contrived, and childish, tie-less Tsipras will soon discover that Putin is simply using him as a pawn to try and undo the sanctions of the EU against Russia in July.

The rather childish political antics of Tsipras is best illustrated by his "demand" that,

" .... Germany owes Greece nearly €279bn (£204bn; $303bn) in war reparations for the Nazi occupation during World War Two.

It is the first time Greece has officially calculated what Germany allegedly owes it for Nazi atrocities and looting during the 1940s." (BBC News : 7 April 2015)

To which the Germans have replied,

"...... the issue was resolved legally years ago.
...
Reacting to the Greek claim, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said it was "dumb" to link Greece's bailout by the eurozone with the question of war reparations." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

It would seem, indeed, that Alexis Tsipras is taking over the mantle of Putin's cheerleader in the EU from the 'fragrant' Mogherini (right). Or is it simply that putin now has two cheerleaders in the EU.

 (to be continued)

Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy in eastern Ukraine, and the EU and Obama

Nataliya Vasilyeva (left) informs us that,

"On a recent spring morning, an important visitor watched Russian-backed rebels conduct infantry maneuvers in eastern Ukraine (right).

"The general is very pleased," rebel commander Ostap Cherny told his troops, referring to the figure in camouflage encircled by guards.

The man — almost certainly a Russian military officer — became alarmed when he saw two journalists approach. His entourage shielded him — forbidding photos — and the group sped off in a motorcade, the "general" safely inside a black Toyota SUV with no license plates." (AP [Associated Press] : Yahoo News : 3 April, 2015)

She goes on to report that,

"...there has been a tactical shift apparently aimed at minimizing Russia's military presence, part of an effort to persuade the West to lift economic sanctions." (ibid Nataliya Vasilyeva) (my emphasis)

But is this 'tactical' shift aimed at 'minimizing' Russia's military presence in eastern Ukraine? 

Or is it a deceptive 'maskirovka' strategy of Putin to intermingle Russian soldiers with rebel-forces so that he can now claim that there are 'no Russian soldiers' in eastern Ukraine.

Is it any wonder that Putin's Kremlin mouthpiece, Dmitry Peskov (right), last Tuesday yet again said that,

"Russia "firmly denies" reports of a Russian military presence in Ukraine." (ibid Nataliya Vasilyeva) (my emphasis)

This 'maskirovka' deception of Putin is squarely aimed at Western audiences, and we can expect to see RT and his 'Ministry of Truth' churn out a veritable avalanche of  propaganda pushing this deception upon an unsuspecting world.

Meanwhile, as reported by Nolan Peterson (left),

"Pro-Russian separatists and the Ukrainian Azov Regiment have been battling over the town of Shyrokyne for weeks.

The small town on the Sea of Azov is only about nine miles east of Mariupol, an industrial port city on the sea that is considered by some Ukrainian military officials to be the last obstacle before a separatist breakthrough that could advance all the way to Crimea." (Newsweek : 2 April, 2015) (my emphasis) 

Adding to the military pressure that Putin is exerting upon those defending Mariupol, RT informs us that,

"Russian Communists are preparing a bill that would ban state-owned corporations from any economic presence in Ukraine. The measure is being considered as a reply for Kiev’s planned nationalization of Russian property." (RT : April 03, 2015)
 
The absurdity of this call from communist MP's in the Russian Duma illustrates just how deep the nationalist fascistoid propaganda of Putin has seeped into the minds of the Russian public.

For how long the Russian public will be held captive to the imperialist ambitions of Putin remains to be seen. Putin may be infused with his KGB  Pavlovian conditioning to double down, fight his way out, turn up the pressure, never admit, never retreat, but the deteriorating economic situation in Russia will not disappear when his proxies and Russian soldiers attack Mariupol.

The Russian people will still experience rising inflation, rising food prices, a depreciating rouble, crippling bank interest rates and, most important of all, a steady flow of body-bags from eastern Ukraine.

Added to which, the Iranian nuclear talks in Lausanne, Switzerland, have come to an end, and Obama can no longer use these talks as an excuse to vacillate over supplying Ukraine with the necessary arms to counter Putin's continuous buildup of sophisticated weaponry into eastern Ukraine.

Putin's invasion of Mariupol is imminent.

What will be spurring him on to set up his forces for an imminent attack on Mariupol is the fact that,

"A summit between EU and Ukraine has been scheduled for April 27 in Kyiv. President Petro Poroshenko confirmed the meeting date on Saturday, after a conversation with European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

The deployment of European peacekeepers to monitor the ceasefire agreement brokered in Belarus in mid-February is expected to make the agenda." (Ukraine Today : Mar. 29, 2015) (my emphasis)

What will be decided at this upcoming summit in Kiev, as well as the pressure that will now be put on Obama to start sending defensive weaponry to Ukraine, will be determining factors that will decide the fate of Ukraine.

Putin's cheerleaders in the EU, especially the 'fragrant' Mogherini, are no doubt deciding on their strategy to scupper any talk of increasing EU sanctions against Putin.

Putin's recent threat to use nuclear bombs should annexed Ukrainian Crimea be threatened will no doubt be a card that they will use.

But will the upturn in the German economy scupper their plans? As Martin Hüfner (left) reports,

"This year German metalworkers will see the largest real wage growth in a long time. The collective bargaining partners just agreed to raise wages by 3.4%. With some extra lump-sum benefits and close-to-zero inflation, this translates into a real wage increase of 3.5%.

While this does not apply to the economy as a whole, the metalworkers’ deal is clearly a bellwether for other industries. " ( The Globalist : March 30, 2015)


We can but wait and see.

(to be continued)