" Controversial laws designed to leave Ukraine's Soviet past behind
stoked tension in the war-divided country Friday and prompted an angry
reaction from Russia which called the ban on communist-era symbols
"totalitarian".......Ukraine's parliament voted on Thursday to ban communist-era and Nazi
symbols in what supporters said was a bid to break with the country's
tragic World War II past and Moscow's domination through most of the
20th century.(AFP (Yahoo News): April 10,2015) (my emphasis)
And in Kharkiv, 48 Hours after these laws were passed,
"Activists toppled three statues of Communist leaders overnight
Friday in Ukraine's second-largest city, Kharkiv, days after parliament
passed a controversial bill designed to purge the country of Soviet-era
symbols." (FRANCE 24 with AFP : 11 April, 2015)
And whilst Putin is lashing out at this law to erase the symbols of Ukraine's Soviet past, Sarah Rainsford informs us that,
"A central Russian gallery has cancelled the opening of an exhibition of
World War Two images by US and British photographers, sparking claims
that the event was pulled for political reasons.....
A staff member at the state-run gallery told the BBC that the decision
to cancel the exhibition was "political", and said they did not believe
it would ever open. They said they had been "ordered" not to comment
further." (BBC News :11 April 2015) (my emphasis) (picture: 1945: US and Soviet troops finally met at Torgau, deep inside Germany)
Meanwhile, the OSCE Monitoring Mission to Ukraine is reporting multiple instances where the Minsk2 'ceasefire' has recently been broken.
Olena Gordiienko (left) also informs us that, "Russian
forces and their proxies fired 20 times at Ukraine-controlled positions in the past
24 hours, while employing an alarming number of 30 surveillance drones over
Kyiv-controlled territory in war-torn eastern Ukraine." (KyivPost : April 11, 2015) (my emphasis)
This continuous breakdown of the Minsk2 'ceasefire' since its adoption in February has prompted Angela Merkel to announce that,
"Berlin has ... plans to bring dozens of mothballed tanks back into
service. There is speculation the move is in response to increased
demands from the Ukraine crisis." (DW : 11 April,2015) (my emphasis)
At the same time as Merkel is 'reviving' her mothballed tanks,Mercedes Stephenson of CTV News reports that,
"Canada will be sending troops to Ukraine to participate in a non-combat role in the region in the coming months." (CTV News : Friday, April 10, 2015)
But perhaps most alarming for Putin, Pavel Polityuk reports that,
"Ukraine, locked
in conflict with Russian-backed separatists in its east, on Thursday
drew up a new security doctrine denouncing Russia's "aggression" and
setting its sights on joining the U.S.-led NATO military alliance." (Reuters : Thu Apr 9, 2015)
All these developments yet again indicates that Putin is preparing for an invasion of Mariupol, as well as preparing the Russian people 'emotionally' for this imminent invasion.
To this end, Putin's propaganda machine is in overdrive.
On the 8th of April, Natalia Antelava (left) and Abdujalil Abdurasulov reported that,
"Russian television stations recently report claims that a 10-year-old girl had been killed by shelling." (BBC News : 8 April,2015)
What is frightening about this story is that while this event never happened, the Russian people actually believe that is has simply because Putin's propaganda machine solemnly reported iton Russian TV.
This type of cruel and cynical false reporting on Russian TV occurred as early as in July of 2014when it was reported that a young child had been crucified in Slovyansk for simply speaking Russian, and that his unconscious mother was then bound to a tank and driven 3 times around the square where her child had been crucified. (English subtitled version)
Is Putin now so furious at the toppling of Lenin statues in Kharkiv, and with Ukraine setting its sights on joining NATO, that his anger will get the better of him and he WILL step into the abyss and fall headlong into an unsuspecting Black Swan event, the consequences of which is simply too ghastly to contemplate?
There is a rather fundamental question that needs to be asked about Putin's 'maskirovka' strategy in giving the 'green light' to the releasing of a spate of bombings in Kharkov.
"Soon after midnight on April 1, a separatist group calling itself the
Kharkov Partisans issued another one of its video warnings to the
Ukrainian government. It claimed that within the next 48 hours a bomb
would explode far behind the front lines of the war in eastern Ukraine.
“As of now, the earth will begin to burn beneath your feet,” said the
group’s spokesman, Filipp Ekozyants, in the message to Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko and his top security officials.
Sure enough, the bomb arrived. Though reports have been conflicting as
to the damage it caused, a large explosion rang out in the southwestern
part of Kharkov, Ukraine’s second largest city, within 24 hours of the
Partisans’ threat." (Time : 10 April, 2015) (my emphasis)
As these bombings are taking place, Melik Kaylan (left) informs us that,
"Russian forces busily resupply for Ukraine ahead of a Spring offensive, according to numerous sources including a former head of Nato.
According to my own sources in Ukraine, where I was two weeks ago,
Russian military assets have spread broadly all along Ukraine’s eastern
border formed up in three waves in order to stretch and overwhelm
Ukrainian defences across an entire front." (Forbes :
Natalia Zinets reports, "The enemy has significantly intensified firing
on our positions from weapons that according to the Minsk agreement are
meant to have been withdrawn," Kiev's military spokesman Andriy Lysenko (left)
said in a televised briefing, adding that the majority of attacks had
taken place around the airport of rebel-held Donetsk." (Reuters : Fri Apr 10, 2015) (my emphasis)
"Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe monitors have come under fire
by Kremlin-backed separatist forces in Donetsk Oblast's Shyrokyne,
casting more doubt about the durability of a cease-fire reached in
February. A statement issued by the organization's
Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine on April 8, said the incident
occurred at an improvised roadblock about 20 kilometers east of Mariupol
on April 7.", as reported by Allison Quinn. (right) (KyivPost : April 8, 2015) (my emphasis)
"The
Security Service of Ukraine has detained 29 people in Odessa accused of
plotting political assassinations as part of a wider scheme to destabilize the
region, the head of the agency announced. "As
of today there are 29 people (in custody), most of them are Ukrainian
citizens," Valentyn Nalyvaichenko said at a briefing on April 9.
"They
were preparing for ordered political killings ... to begin seizing the
territory and splitting Odessa off from Ukraine," Nalyvaichenko said,
adding that the suspects had planned to kill a local lawmaker and
several activists." (KyivPost : April 9, 2015) (my emphasis)
All of these current events point to the fact that Putin has no exit-strategy from his war with Ukraine.
Neither Putin, nor his kleptocratic 'siloviki' clan that surrounds him, can be seen to retreat from his grandiose 'imperial' aims that his propaganda machine has subjected the minds of the Russians to.
Putin's 'siloviki' clan that now surrounds him
Fradkov Shoigu
Patruschev Kolokoltsev Bortnikov
Putin is now throwing everything, short of his 'nuclear' kitchen sink, at ensuring that his imminent invasion of Mariupol is not met with defeat.
A defeat for Putin will spell the end of him. The Russian public will not forgive him. His 'aura' of invincibility, that has been force-fed into the minds of the Russian people by his propaganda machine, will simply dissipate into thin air.
He may try to regain his 'invincibility aura' by continuing to demonise the west, but 'the die will be cast'.
The imminent invasion of Mariupol is the biggest gamble that Putin will be taking in his life. No longer can he view the Ukrainian forces with the contempt with which he viewed them when invading, and ultimately annexing, Ukrainian Crimea.
The Ukrainian forces are now battle-hardened. They have proved themselves to be more than a match for his rebel proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.
His imminent invasion of Mariupol will also be the tipping point at which Obama will have concede to the demands of both the House of Representatives and the Senate that the US supply Ukraine with defensive lethal weaponry.
Added to which, NATO members in Europe, especially the Baltic States and Poland, will be placed on 'high alert' should he invade Mariupol.
Such an invasion by Putin will neither be lost on Lukashenko, the President of Belarus, nor on Nursultan Nazarbayev, the President of Kazakhstan.
We are therefore left with two questions.
(1) Is all this military preparation by Putin for an invasion of Mariupol simply an elaborate 'masquerade' to directly influence the upcoming meeting of EU leaders on 27 April
that will address Poroshenko's request for European
peacekeepers to help monitor the trucebetween Kiev and pro-Russian
rebels, aimed at ending nearly a
year of fighting?
OR
(2) Is Putin so infused with his KGB training never to double down, fight his way out, turn up
the pressure, never admit, never retreat, that he will simply step into
the abyssinto anunsuspecting Black Swan eventthat will be precipitated by his
invasion of Mariupol?
Yesterday (April 08, 2015) Putin's propaganda machine, RT, informed us that, "Moscow is urging the removal of all foreign military formations
from Ukraine, including the instructors from the United States
and NATO, Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin (left) said in an
interview with the Rossiiskaya Gazeta daily." (RT : April 08, 2015)
“We know that hundreds of US and NATO servicemen are planning
to come to Ukraine to train the National Guard. The training
camps are being set up not only in western Ukraine, but also in
other parts of the country. This is a dangerous process. We would
push for all foreign and illegal military units to be removed
from Ukraine,” Karasin said.(ibid RT) (my emphasis)
This is no doubt a response to Polish, Latvian, English, NATO, and American trainers who have been helping to build up the efficiency of the Ukrainian forces over the last weeks.
It is obviously also a response to,
"Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk (right) [who] has [recently] said that the
Ukrainian government will sign an agreement on military and technical
cooperation with NATO, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will seek to meet
NATO standards." (KyivPost : April 8, 2015) (my emphasis)
Meanwhile, Putin continues to build up his forces on the Russia-Ukrainian border, whilst flooding eastern Ukraine with sophisticated military equipment and Russian generals who are training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine.
"On
a recent spring morning, an important visitor watched Russian-backed
rebels conduct infantry maneuvers in eastern Ukraine (right).
"The general
is very pleased," rebel commander Ostap Cherny told his troops,
referring to the figure in camouflage encircled by guards.
The
man — almost certainly a Russian military officer — became alarmed when
he saw two journalists approach. His entourage shielded him —
forbidding photos — and the group sped off in a motorcade, the "general"
safely inside a black Toyota SUV with no license plates." (AP [Associated Press] : Yahoo News : 3 April, 2015) (my emphasis)
Does Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin include those Russian generals training Putin's proxies in eastern Ukraine amongst his, "foreign and illegal military units that should be removed
from Ukraine?
And what about Putin's "illegal military units and sophisticated Russian weaponry" that are still flooding across the Russian border into eastern Ukraine?
"Russian tanks and soldiers have been “decisive” in winning key battles against government troops in eastern Ukraine, the commander of a separatist “special forces” detachment has admitted.
The Kremlin denies sending men and military vehicles to fight in Ukraine, but Dmitry Sapozhnikov (right) told the BBC that regular army units sent from Russia and commanded by Russian officers were key in seizing the strategic town of Debaltseve in February." (The Telegraph : 31 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)
The recent escalation in Putin's Russian troop movements and military equipment into eastern Ukraine, as well as the call-up of his rebel proxies in preparation for an imminent offensive against Mariupol, has been closely monitored by Ukraine over the last few days.
As recently as Mar. 27, 2015, Senator McCain was warning of an imminent attack on Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in eastern Ukraine.
"In the villages around the port city of Mariupol in southern Ukraine,
pro-Russian rebels and Ukraine troops continue to exchange fire, as both
sides accuse the other of using heavy artillery and tanks. The
Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council has said that
pro-Russian rebels are increasing their combat readiness
in preparation for an attack on the port city of Mariupol. Should such
an attack take place, the Minsk II agreement governing the current
ceasefire would most likely collapse, leading the region back into a full-scale conflict. " (International Business Times : April 08 2015)
To try to defuse this military build-up by both the Ukrainian and Russian forces,
"Ukraine's Minister of Foreign Affairs Pavlo Klimkin is now in Paris
where he's engaged in preparations for a meeting of 'Normandy Four'
foreign ministers with a [UN] peacekeeping mission in Donbas being on the top of the agenda." (Unian : 08.04.2015) (my emphasis)
L-R: Lavrov, Steinmeister, Klimkin, and Fabius
This meeting will be held in Berlin on April 13 but it can be assumed from the outset that Lavrov, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, will be dead-set against any UN peacekeeping mission entering eastern Ukraine, let alone patrolling the porous border between eastern Ukraine and Russia.
France now seems to be closing ranks with Ukraine. Fabius has stated that,
"France's position remains unchanged – we insist on the full-scale
implementation of all the clauses of the Minsk[2] agreement according to
the schedule," he added." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)
To cement this closing of ranks between France and Ukraine,
"Fabius also announced a visit of Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko
and Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatseniuk, who are to arrive in
Paris on April 22." (ibid Unian) (my emphasis)
It would now be interesting to see just how the budding 'cameraderie, between Putin and Alexis Tsipras (left), the Greek prime minister, has affected the 'Putinversteher' Walter Steinmeister.
"Mr Putin said the leaders had discussed 'various ways of co-operating, including major projects in energy' and said Russia 'could provide loans' for projects including a potential gas pipeline via Turkey, which was shelved last year amid deteriorating relations between Mr Putin and the EU." (Tamara Cohen : Mail Online : 9 April 2015) (my emphasis) Will Steinmeister now also close ranks with Klimin and Fabius? Will these three now confront Lavrov with their agreeing on a UN peacekeeping mission?
"STAVROPOL,
Russia — Outside this city’s police headquarters on a recent night, a
priest in a purple velvet hat and gold stole moved from one man to the
next, offering a cross to be kissed and drenching their faces with holy
water from a long brush.
And
so began another night of law enforcement as Cossacks, the fierce
horsemen who once secured the frontier for the Russian empire, marched
out to join the police patrolling the city.
In his third term, President Vladimir V. Putin
has offered one clear new direction for the country: the development of
a conservative, nationalist ideology. Cossacks have emerged as a kind
of mascot, with growing financial and political support." (New York Times :
The young Cossack fighter gripped his automatic rifle as he swore he
would defend the town of Perevalsk in war-torn east Ukraine that he and
his comrades now control......
But the enemy the Cossacks fear
most is the enemy within -- the separatist leaders of the self-declared
Lugansk People's Republic (LNR) who they refuse to obey.
"We're
under the orders of our Russian brothers of the Great Army of the Don
Cossacks. We don't recognise the authority of the LNR," said the
soldier." (AFP (Yahoo News) : Tue., April 7, 2015) (my emphasis)
Needless to say,
"Igor Plotnitsky (left), head of the Lugansk rebels battling the Kiev
government, set an April 4 deadline for the Cossacks to either join the
LNR's military wing, hand over their weapons -- or be outlawed." (ibid Nicholas Miletitch) (my emphasis)
What this 'fighting amongst thieves' (sic!) reveals is the nature of the 'hybrid' war that Putin has, unintentionally, set off amongst his own proxies in the rebel-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. To minimise the serious damage that this 'fighting amongst thieves' could do to his plan for totally undermining both the government and the economy of Ukraine, Putin has to import yet more young Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine to keep the flame of his war with Ukraine constantly burning.
On the economic horizon, Putin may be uttering a rather small sigh of relief.
“The economy is gradually entering a recession,” said Vladimir
Tikhomirov, chief economist at BCS Financial Group in Moscow. “It’s
difficult to say when a reversal will happen. I expect that it may
happen in the course of the coming three to six months.” (Bloomberg Business : April 1, 2015) (my emphasis)
She further informs us that,
“The modest rate of economic expansion last year speaks of the anemic
internal demand environment born out of sticky inflation and high debt
servicing costs,” Johannesburg-based Tradition Analytics said in an
e-mailed research note. “Global growth, meanwhile, remains uneven and is
therefore unlikely to meaningfully boost GDP.” (ibid Anna Andrianova) (my emphasis)
Russian consumers are, however, finding it tough going.
"Crimea’s residents have only two options when they want to buy something nowadays: cash or Pro-100. .....
[Pro-100 is] the first phase of Russia’s plan to launch its own domestic credit card system – has been introduced ahead of schedule in Crimea to fill the gap......
Pro-100 is the only way to get cash in Crimea. International money
transfer systems have also pulled out of the region, and even people
with Russian bank cards cannot make transfers or withdraw money in
Crimea.
“A friend in the US needed to transfer me some money, and he had to
send it by wire to another friend in Moscow, who withdrew the money and
then found someone flying here from Moscow to bring it to me by hand,”
said one exasperated resident." (The Guardian : Tuesday 7 April 2015) (my emphasis)
If the people in Ukrainian Crimea are having difficulty getting hold of their electronic roubles, how much more so is it in the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine.
One has to wonder whether Putin is coming to the full realization of the economic millstone that he has placed around his neck by annexing Ukrainian Crimea and incorporating the rebel held areas of eastern Ukraine into the rouble monetary system.
Ivan Nechepurenko tells us that an unidentified source, cited by Forbes, who participated in the[Minsk2] meeting [in February],
"According to the source, Putin recounted the overnight Minsk
negotiations, saying: “[Poroshenko (right)] told me directly: 'Take the
Donbass.' I replied: 'Are you out of your mind? I don't need the
Donbass. If you don't need it, declare it independent,'” Forbes reported. .....
The source said Poroshenko had asked Putin to take financial
responsibility for the region. Putin replied that would only be possible
if the Donbass joined Russia and that as long as the region remained
part of Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities were tasked with such matters." (Moscow Times : Apr. 06 2015)
However,
"The head of the board of the Russian Union of Industrialists and
Entrepreneurs, Alexander Shokhin (left), said Monday the comments published by
Forbes were “a distortion” of Putin's words, RIA Novosti reported.
“The topic of discussion was relations between Russia and Ukraine and
the implementation of the Minsk agreements, but I am not going to
repeat [Putin's] words. … [The Forbes report] is an incorrect
interpretation,” Shokhin said." (ibid Ivan Nechepurenko) (my emphasis)
The $64 question is, "Why has Forbes suddenly published this information?(06.04.2015)"
Whilst the Ukrainian economy is in dire straits, nonetheless it is receiving critical financial assistance from the West, including from the IMF. Putin, on the other hand, has no access to international financial resources and thus the Russian consumer is paying a hefty economic price for his imperial ambitions.
Putin may be toying with the current Greek Prime minister, Alexis Tsipras (right), as he goes cap-in-hand to Putin to save his political skin as the Greek economy splutters on the edge of economic oblivion.
But even the rather contrived, and childish, tie-less Tsipras will soon discover that Putin is simply using him as a pawn to try and undo the sanctions of the EU against Russia in July.
The rather childish political antics of Tsipras is best illustrated by his "demand" that,
" .... Germany
owes Greece nearly €279bn (£204bn; $303bn) in war reparations for the
Nazi occupation during World War Two.
It is the first time Greece
has officially calculated what Germany allegedly owes it for Nazi
atrocities and looting during the 1940s." (BBC News : 7 April 2015)
To which the Germans have replied,
"...... the issue was resolved legally years ago.
...
Reacting to the Greek claim, German Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel (left) said
it was "dumb" to link Greece's bailout by the eurozone with the
question of war reparations." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)
It would seem, indeed, that Alexis Tsipras is taking over the mantle of Putin's cheerleader in the EU from the 'fragrant' Mogherini (right). Or is it simply that putin now has two cheerleaders in the EU.