Is Putin lighting the fuse for war with NATO, the EU, and the US?

As the days tick off towards the upcoming May 9 parade in Red Square in Moscow, John Batchelor (right) informs us that tensions are beginning to run high as,

"NATO and Russia prepare for the end of Minsk II agreement.......... ................

There can now be no doubt that the unstable Ukraine crisis is pointing to the increasing likelihood of confrontation and worse between NATO and Russian forces." (AlJazeera : April 20, 2015) (my emphasis)

Echoing John Batchelor, US House majority leader, Kevin McCarthy, (left) after  meeting  Ukrainian leaders on March 29-31 in Kiev, stated that, 

“Recently, a strong bipartisan majority passed H.Res.162, which expressed the Congress’ support for Ukraine and encouraged greater efforts to provide assistance to Ukraine’s military. 

Having visited Ukraine and spoken to Ukraine’s leaders, I am even more convinced that the United States, our European allies, and the entire free world have a profound interest in standing with the Ukrainian people in their time of need. This conflict is not merely a Russian assault on Ukraine’s freedom and democracy, but an assault on fundamental principles of international law that threatens peace and security in Europe and the international order." (Kevin McCarthy : Mar 30, 2015) (my emphasis)

Vladimir Soldatkin and Alessandra Prentice (left) have reported that,

"The Kremlin said on Friday the arrival of about 300 U.S. paratroopers in Ukraine to train Kiev's National Guard could destabilize the situation in the east of the country, where pro-Russian separatists are fighting Ukrainian government forces." (Reuters : Fri Apr 17, 2015)

What made Putin even angrier is the fact that,

"Five non-NATO northern European states — Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland — have declared with alarm that conflict with Russia is possible." (ibid John Batchelor) (my emphasis)

and that,

"Finland, which borders its former ruler Russia, and Sweden are not members of NATO ... have increased cooperation with the trans-Atlantic alliance, and the joint declaration has been among their strongest responses to Russia's aggression." (Vladimir Soldatkin in Moscow and Jussi Rosendahl in Helsinki : Reuters : Sun Apr 12, 2015) (my emphasis)

That dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov (left), immediately said on Sunday that,

".... moves by Finland and Sweden toward closer ties with NATO were of "special concern".." (ibid Soldatkin and Rosendahl) (my emphasis)

To which Finnish Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb (right) responded by,

" ...... [calling] the Russian statement "sabre-rattling", but said one should not be startled by it.

"No other country, of course, has a veto over Finland's decisions," Stubb, who would like to see Finland join NATO, told public broadcaster YLE." (ibid Soldatkin and Rosendahl) (my emphasis)

Even more significant, in response to Putin lifting the embargo of the sale of the S300 anti-missile system to Iran arguing that, 

"The S-300, ..... “does not pose any threat to Israel whatsoever. It is a solely defensive weapon.",

Israel has responded that it is,

"...[selling] weapons to the Ukrainian government, which is battling a Russian- backed insurgency in its eastern province" (Jerusalem Post (& Reuters): 20.04.2015)

Added to which,

"Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (above left) is the latest leader to decide not to attend Russia’s victory parade on Saturday, May 9, to mark the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe." (The Jerusalem Post : 20.04.2015) 

Putin warned Netanyahu that selling weapons to Poroshenko


“ ..... is a choice, a choice of the Israeli leadership; they have the right to do what they consider appropriate. I think it is counterproductive, if it concerns lethal weapons, because it will only lead to yet another swirl of confrontation, to more human casualties, but the result will be the same,” Putin said in an interview on Rossiya 1 TV on Saturday." (Tovah Lazaroff : Jerusalem Post: 18.04.2015)

By issuing his warning to Netanyahu, has Putin finally stepped over the edge into the abyss of an unsuspecting Black Swan event into which he is now falling, by virtue of drawing BOTH Israel and Iran into his war with Ukraine?

Furthermore, that,

"Five non-NATO northern European states — Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland — have declared with alarm that conflict with Russia is possible." (ibid John Batchelor) (my emphasis)

"Moscow [already] sounds resigned to the collapse of Minsk II and another round of combat ..... " (ibid AlJazeera) (my emphasis)

What we now have is

(1) Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark and Iceland have declared that, "conflict with Russia is possible", 
(2) Israel is selling weapons to Ukraine, 
(3) the US is training Kiev's National Guard,
(4) the pressure on Obama to supply Ukraine with lethal defensive weapons is increasing exponentially
(5) NATO is building up a rapid response force,
(6) and US Gen. Ben Hodges is claiming that Russia is mobilising for a war that they think is going to happen in the near future,

Even the EU is anticipating renewed fighting between Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

The $64 question is,

"How will the EU respond to Putin's impending invasion of Mariupol?"

(to be continued)

Putin's last stand?

Aljazeera reports that the,

"Arrival of 300 US Army soldiers to train Ukraine's national guard sparks warnings by Russia of escalation in conflict. ......
.....
The troops, from the Italy-based 173rd Airborne Brigade, are to spend six months training a total of about 900 Ukrainian national guardsmen." (Aljazeera : 18 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

BBC News also reports that,

"Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov (left) warned that the move "could seriously destabilise the situation" in Ukraine.

He said the US military presence "is a long way from helping towards a settlement of the conflict", Russia's RIA Novosti news agency reported." (BBC News : 17 April 2015)

The absolute audacity of Alexander Lukashevich (right), a spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry, saying that,

"....the US troops' presence violated the section of the Minsk agreement that banned foreign "armed formations" from Ukraine." (ibid Aljazeera) (my emphasis)

simply beggars belief.

Putin's Russian troops have been killed and captured by the Ukrainian army in eastern Ukraine, and secretly buried in Russia, since the start of his invasion of eastern Ukraine. The evidence for this is simply overwhelming.

Yet Robert Garver, reporting on Putin's marathon choreographed TV phone-in last Thursday, reported Putin as categorically stating that, 

“There are no Russian troops in Ukraine,” [Putin] said flatly, when asked by a caller.
War between Russia and Ukraine “is impossible,” he said, calling the nations “brotherly.”(The Fiscal Times : April 16, 2015) (my emphasis)

Many have, over the last few weeks, warned against the impending invasion of Mariupol by Putin's Russian soldiers and his proxies in eastern Ukraine.

Putin has stepped-up his supply of military equipment and Russian soldiers into eastern Ukraine over the last few weeks.

Why, therefore, does he persist in simply blatantly lying to the world about Russian troops and armaments in eastern Ukraine?

In a recent BBC interview of Aleksandr Zakharchenko, (left : pictured pointing at Ukrainian) the self-styled 'leader' of Putin's proxies in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, gives us the answer.

"...the war will start again, and the war will continue until Kiev can see its losing and will again request peace and another Minsk agreement. There could be a Minsk5, a Minsk6, ..... [to] infinity..." (BBC News : 18 April, 2015) (my emphasis)

 

And exactly against who is Kiev going to lose? Against his motley collection of rebels, or against the Russian army.

Had it not been for the support that Zakharchenko and his motley collection of rebels have been receiving viz. Russian generals, trained Russian soldiers, and sophisticated Russian military equipment, sent by Putin to eastern Ukraine, the so-called "Republic of Donetsk" would now simply be a faint memory.


Instead, Putin continues to believe that he can delude the rest of the world by simply repeating, over and over again, his blatant lie that there are no Russian soldiers in eastern Ukraine.

As stated in an ealier blog-entry, Putin simply has "no exit strategy" from the "tangled web of deceit" that he has spun around himself regarding his war with Ukraine.

His desperate attempt to paint the US and the EU, together with Canada and Australia, as the villains who are totally responsible for his current war with Ukraine, no longer holds any water.

Putin, his kleptocratic 'siloviki', together with the full might of his propaganda machine, simply cannot now live without a final push against Mariupol in his war with Ukraine.

For him, there is simply too much at stake.

(to be continued)

Is Putin becoming entrapped in his own "tangled web" that his deceptions is weaving?

Yesterday Putin reacted towards the news about Canada sending 200 military trainers to Ukraine for both the international and home audiences by stating that,

"In order to contain Russia a full selection of methods is being used from attempted political isolation and economic pressure to a wide-scale information war and special services methods.....
But such tricks do not work with Russia, have never worked before, and will not work in the future" (Reuters video (The Globe and Mail : Wednesday, Apr. 15 2015)

Responding to Putin's outburst, the Canadian Defence Minister, Jason Kenney (right), stated that,

"...150 to 200 Canadian troops will be stationed 1300 kilometres away from the zone of conflict ...We are possibly as far removed from the conflict [as is possible]"

Furthermore that,

"Confrontation in this area [eastern Ukraine] is all coming from Vladimir Putin's illegal aggression. It is critically important that the world, particularly NATO allies, send a strong message to Vladimir Putin of deterrence that his agression will not be rewarded ...." (ibid The Globe and Mail) (my emphasis)

And just as Putin is once again blaming the west for his annexing of Ukrainian Crimea, and for the war between Russia and Ukraine that is still raging in eastern Ukraine,

"..Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu (left) said a drive by the United States and its allies to bring Kiev closer to the West was a threat to Moscow and had forced it to react.

"The United States and its allies have crossed all possible lines in their drive to bring Kiev into their orbit. That could not have failed to trigger our reaction," he told an annual security conference in Moscow. (Gabriela Baczynska : Reuters :Thu Apr 16, 2015)

And whilst Putin's propaganda war against the west, aimed specifically at the US, is beginning to reach a crescendo, we learn that on his TV phone in with the Russian people today, Elizabeth Piper (right) reports that,

"President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russian military forces were not in Ukraine, denying allegations by Ukraine and Western countries that Moscow is providing troops and support for pro-Russian rebels fighting in eastern Ukraine." (Reuters : Thu Apr 16, 2015)

There is an overwhelming reason why Putin's propaganda machine is going full blast in its attack against the US and its western allies namely, the failing Russian economy.

In today's marathon TV phone in with the Russian people, Putin's advisors primed him beforehand to blame all their growing economic hardships on the US and its allies in the west.

As the BBC's Sarah Rainsford reports today from Moscow,

".. such phone-ins are highly choreographed but do reveal Russians' concerns. Russians' real incomes have fallen this year for the first time since Mr Putin came to power." (BBC News : 16 April, 2015)

Putin desperately tried to put a gloss on the current suffering of the Russian people because of  his single-minded obsession with restoring the vanished "Imperial Russian Empire", irrespective of the costs that this is having on the Russian people, the lives of Russian soldiers, and particularly the Ukrainian people.

As Sarah Rainsford further reports,
 
"Mr Putin said the Russian economy would take about two years to bounce back from recession, or less as the rouble's value was rising again.

 

He said there were encouraging signs that Russian agriculture was growing and replacing imports of Western food.

However, a dairy farmer introduced as "John - a Russian citizen" (left) grilled Mr Putin over the hardship faced by farmers. 

"You say everything is going well - sorry, that's not true," the farmer said. "I have five children... I need some assurance about their future in Russia. Do you believe the statistics or are they lying?" he asked in English-accented Russian...." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

Putin's reply rather says it all.

"I don't have reason to disbelieve the statistics," he said, adding that the government would have to increase subsidies for farmers." (ibid BBC News) (my emphasis)

The magician Houdini (right) was renowned for his daring exploits in escaping from near impossible situations.

Putin is no 'Houdini'

As he, and his 'siloviki' circle of advisors, continue to spin his 'fantastical' tales about the US and its western allies being the sole cause of his invasion of, and annexing of, Ukrainian Crimea, his current war with Ukraine, and the increasing suffering of the Russian people; the tangled web that his deceits is weaving is slowly but surely beginning to 'entrap him' in an ever increasing downward spiral of  irrational actions. 

(to be continued)