Putin's 'appeasers' at the 17th EU-Ukraine summit in Kiev (27 April,2015)

As today's 17th EU-Ukraine summit of EU leaders takes place in Kiev, EUbusiness informs us that,

" Ukraine pressed European leaders Monday to send peacekeepers to stabilise the war-torn east, as monitors reported a surge in shelling near [Mariupol,] a strategic government-held city...
 .........
Observers with the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) near the flashpoint town of Shyrokyne said they had witnessed "the most intense shelling" since fighting began there in mid-February, as well as movement of heavy weapons." (EUbusiness : 27 April 2015, 14:12 CET)

By simply trampling all over the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement, Putin is pulling out all the stops of 'intimidation' that he has at his disposal in his attempt to directly influence the outcome of this critical meeting between EU leaders and the President of Ukraine, Poroshenko.

"Many Ukrainians fear Mariupol could face a new offensive by separatists after commemorations of Russia's victory in World War II on May 9 are out of the way, or come under attack during public holidays in early May." (ibid EUbusiness) (my emphasis)

 For weeks now there have been ample warnings that have been given by many different sources about Putin's build-up of Russian soldiers and lethal military equipment in eastern Ukraine for his imminent onslaught against the strategic city of Mariupol. And so it has begun. 

Yet notwithstanding this blatant "in-you-face" disregard of the Minsk2 'ceasefire' agreement by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, there are those at the 17th EU-Ukraine summit now taking place in Kiev,

"Germany and key European partners are pressing Ukraine to speed up implementing the Minsk ceasefire agreement — for fear of giving Russia excuses for renewed aggression." (Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk : Financial Times : April 26, 2015)

Furthermore that,
 
"The word among German diplomats is that Kiev needs to be “more co-operative”. Stefan Meister (right), of Berlin’s DGAP foreign policy think-tank, said: “German officials are talking to both sides, but especially to the Ukrainians because if they don’t do what’s necessary, the Russians will always have the possibility of renewing the conflict............

But Berlin is worried that Kiev is dragging its feet over other parts of the fragile deal, notably in trying to postpone political decentralisation until after local elections are staged in separatist-held territory.  ” (ibid Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

In other words, Germany wants Putin to be 'appeased' by Ukraine handing over power to Putin's rebel proxies in eastern Ukraine. (ibid Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk)

However,

"For Ukraine this is critical because it does not want to hand over power to separatist leaders in the Donbas region, who are not recognised by the international community. EU diplomats say, however, that while local elections are indeed envisaged under Minsk, the accord does not insist that they take place before decentralisation." (ibid ibid Stefan Wagstyl and Roman Olearchyk) (my emphasis)

And while EU leaders are trying to 'strongarm' Poroshenko into 'appeasing' Putin by giving him 'exactly what he wants',

"US troops in Europe request bigger guns amid tensions with Russia over Ukraine ....

One of the last American combat units stationed in Europe is asking the government for bigger guns amid rising tensions over Russia’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict." (FoxNews :April 26, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
FoxNews further reported that,
 
"NATO's chief on Thursday reported a sizeable Russian military buildup on the border with Ukraine that he said would enable pro-Moscow separatists to launch a new offensive with little warning."(ibid FoxNews) (my emphasis)

And this is precisely what is happening right now, while the EU leaders are meeting with Poroshenko in Kiev.

 Wolfgang Münchau (left) points to a rather interesting comparison which, more than anything else, indicates exactly the extent to which many of the leaders in the EU, who are supportive of (scared of?) Putin are, in fact, openly appeasing him.

"Ukraine will need more financial assistance from the EU — not only loans, but also grants because even a debt restructure will not get this war-torn country back on track. So far, the EU has dispensed €1.6bn in what it calls macro-financial assistance, and €250m in grants for fiscal stabilisation [to Ukraine]........
.............
By comparison, the total of the two Greek programmes has been €195bn so far — about 100 times as much [as received by Ukraine from the EU]. Greece is, of course, a member of the EU and the eurozone, but this is gap is still disproportionate. Of the two, Ukraine is the bigger country — in terms of population, land mass, and economic output." (Financial Times : April 26, 2015) (my emphasis)
 
Wolfgang Münchau also states that,

"Anders Aslund (right) of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington makes the point in a book that Ukraine would be a candidate for a Marshall Plan type package, of the kind Germany and other west European countries received after the second world war.

Ukraine has geostrategic importance to the EU, as Germany did to the US after 1945. And Ukraine has a government willing to undertake reforms." (my emphasis)

It would seem, however, that both Angela Merkel and Walter Steinmeiser have conveniently forgotten just how much Marshall Aid was poured into Germany after WWII and that has led to the Germany that we know today.

Instead, "The word among German diplomats is that Kiev needs to be “more co-operative”.

Alexander J. Motyl  (left) writes that,

"A growing number of Russian analysts, in Russia and abroad, have taken to calling Vladimir Putin's regime "fascist." And they don't use the term casually or as a form of opprobrium. They mean that Putin's Russia genuinely resembles Mussolini's Italy or Hitler's Germany." (Atlantic Council : April 23, 201) (my emphasis)

He goes on to argue that,

"But many Westerners fear the implications of calling a spade a spade.

If Putin's Russia is fascist, then it is comparable to Hitler's Germany and Mussolini's Italy and, thus, certifiably evil. 

And that means that calls for understanding Putin amount to calls for understanding evil.

So it's better to pretend that Russia isn't fascist. Hence the popularity of abstruse designations like managed democracy and sovereign democracy or terms—such as Putinism—that only state the obvious. ...." (ibid Alexander Motyl) (my emphasis)

Some of Putin's supporters (appeasers?) in the EU

(Italy)'fragrant' Mogherini        (Italy) Renzi                 (Greece) Tsipras          (Germany) Steinmeiser

(to be continued)

Putin and his German "Putinversteher" Walter Steinmeier, and that 'leaked' letter

Finally it has come out  in the open.

"In Leaked Letter, Steinmeier (left) Urges EU To Ease Russian Concerns On Ukraine Deal".

So ran the headline today (Sunday, April 26, 2015) in an RFERL article written by Rikard Jozwiak.  He informs us that,

"In the letter addressed to European Commission President Jean-Paul Juncker, which was made available to RFE/RL, Steinmeier called for a resumption of three-way talks between the EU, Ukraine, and Russia in order to identify "practical solutions."

Russia has voiced opposition to the creation of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), the economic core of a wide-ranging Association Agreement concluded in March 2014 by the European Union and Ukraine."(ibid Rikard Jozwiak) (my emphasis)

Yet again is the  "Putinversteher" mentality of Steinmeier bubbling to the surface, in support of Putin attempting to scupper an agreement that has already been ratified between Ukraine and the EU.

As Rikard Jozwiak informs us,

"Russian President Vladimir Putin has warned Ukraine that changing national legislation to prepare for the agreement would trigger "an immediate response from Moscow." (ibid Rikard Jozwiak) (my emphasis)

To which, quite rightly, Poroshenko has stated that,

" ..... Russia is not a party to the Association Agreement and has no right to interfere."(ibid Rikard Jozwiak) (my emphasis)

Yet Steinmeier himself is proclaiming that,

" ...... Germany strongly supported the swift implementation of the DFCTA, adding that "time is running short." (ibid Rikard Jozwiak) (my emphasis)

But what, exactly, does Steinmeier mean by "time is running short"?

 At the 17th EU-Ukraine summit to be held tomorrow (27 Apr. 2015), a critical item on the agenda is the,

" ....opportunity to discuss:

• the implementation of the Association Agreement and the political and economic reforms in Ukraine including EU financial and other assistance" (European Council)

The FULL implementation of the DFCTA between Ukraine and the EU is scheduled for January 1, 2016.

By implementing the DFCTA between Ukraine and the EU, Ukraine will be subject to the rules and regulations that define trade between members of the EU. In particular, Ukrainian industry will be subject to EU rules and conditions that define trade with non-EU countries.

An example of these rules and conditions is outlined in,

".... harmonised standards, freer trading regulations and reduced paperwork make the 'single market' of the EU attractive to importers and exporters."

"The following are some of the measures which EU countries have introduced to make it easier to trade with each other:

• reduced bureaucracy and paperwork - for instance, trade with the EU can be recorded on your VAT form in the same way as any of your sales and purchases in the UK
• harmonised standards - EU-wide technical and safety standards ensure that if you meet UK standards you’ll also meet the standards of other EU countries" 

It is this which Putin fears since once Ukraine implements these EU standards and regulations, Russian trade with Ukraine will have also to CONFORM to them. 

Even more frightening for Putin and his kleptocratic 'siloviki' is the fact that the goods and services that Russia will want to sell to Ukraine will have to conform to EU harmonised standards - EU-wide technical and safety standards. 

This will blow wide open not only the poor standard of Russian-made goods, but also just exactly how CORRUPT Putin's Russian economy is.

Is it this that Steinmeier is wishing to protect Putin from? 

But even more important, where does Merkel stand in all of this? Could Steinmeier have written that letter to Jean-Paul Juncker without the 'blessing' of Merkel?

We should bear in mind that from Putin's days in St. Petersburg he favoured making deals with Germany.

Furthermore, whilst Germany buys lots of gas and oil from Putin, German industry sells an enormous amount of EU-standard goods to Putin, besides being given favourable treatment for investing in Russia.

Is it therefore any wonder that  former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder (left) during Putin's time in St Petersburg now works for Gazprom?

And whilst Steinmeier is trying to pre-empt the discussion tomorrow about the implementation of the Association Agreement (DFCTA) between the EU and Ukraine,

Pavel Polityuk and Jason Bush inform us that Denis Pushilin (right), one of Putins proxy 'rebel-representatives' has said that,

".....the rebels were not opposed to the deployment of international peacekeepers in eastern Ukraine - a long-standing demand by Kiev.... " (Reuters : Sat Apr 25, 2015)

Pushilin then went on to,

".....[accuse] Ukraine of violating the Minsk deal by failing to discuss constitutional changes with the rebels." (ibid Pavel Polityuk and Jason Bush)

 Against the backdrop of Putin flooding eastern Ukraine with lethal military equipment and Russian soldiers in preparation for his imminent assault against Mariupol; Pushilin's statements are simply empty and vacuous and intended, no doubt, to support Steinmeier's call for Putin to be included in discussions about the implementation of Ukraine's Association Agreement (DFCTA) with the EU.

It is to be hoped that these 'diplomatic' deceptions of Putin will not be lost on the EU leaders tomorrow.

However, it is to be expected that they will serve to influence Putin's supporters amongst the EU leaders. And this is precisely what Putin wants.

 Some of Putin's EU supporters

The 'fragrant'  Mogherini             (Italy)  Renzi                  (Greece) Tsipras          (Germany) Steinmeier

(to be continued)

Putin's imminent invasion of Mariupol is beginning to unfold

The "Black Swan Event" abyss that Putin, together with his 'siloviki', has fallen into is finally beginning to reveal itself. And it is focussed around the strategic city of Mariupol.

As Tom Burridge (left) witnessed yesterday (April 23) from the east of the city of Mariupol,

"Pro-Russian rebels have shelled Ukrainian army positions east of the key city of Mariupol in breach of a ceasefire deal, the BBC has witnessed." (BBC News : April 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

And as David Blair and Tom Parfitt (left) report from Moscow,

"Russia is carrying out a new military build-up in eastern Ukraine, massing troops on the border and deploying advanced air defences inside its neighbour, according to the US State Department." (The Telegraph : 23 Apr 2015)

In response to this Russian military build-up along the eastern Ukrainian border controlled by Putin's proxies and Russian soldiers, Poroshenko (below:right) will be asking,

".... the European Union next Monday to send experts to eastern Ukraine to carry out missions ranging from removing mines to training police, its ambassador in Brussels said on Thursday."
(Adrian Croft: Reuters: Thu Apr 23, 2015)

"An EU mission would complement the monitoring role of the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, he said, suggesting it could help Ukraine regain control over its border with Russia, de-mine parts of war-torn Donetsk and Luhansk regions and help to train local police." (ibid Adrian Croft) (my emphasis)
 
Already the sound of Putin's "friends" in the EU can be heard clamouring against the EU sending experts to eastern Ukraine, arguing that this will only increase Putin's apoplectic rage by the sheer mention of EU experts "sniffing" around the porous eastern Ukrainian-Russian border that he is using to send his Russian soldiers and lethal armaments into eastern Ukraine.

 'fragrant' Mogherini            Steinmeier

Foremost amongst them will, no doubt, be the 'fragrant' Mogherini and the "Putinversteher" Walter Steinmeier. (left)

Will Angela Merkel also be amongst this 'braying' crowd of Putin supporters in the EU? We can but wait and see.

If this suggestion of Poroshenko of sending EU experts into eastern Ukraine was enough to send Putin into spasmodic fits of apopletic rage, then the current presence of US trainers in western Ukraine is practically making him 'tear his hair out'.

Gabriela Baczynska and David Alexander inform us that,

"The Russian Defense Ministry said on Thursday that U.S. troops were training Ukrainian forces in the conflict zone in eastern Ukraine, but the Pentagon flatly denied it, accusing Moscow of a "ridiculous attempt" to obscure its own activity in the region.".... 

"This is a ridiculous attempt to shift the focus away from what is actually happening in eastern Ukraine," said Eileen Lainez (right), a Pentagon spokeswoman.. (Reuters : Thu Apr 23, 2015) (my emphasis) (cf. also: Alan Cullison : The Wall Street Journal: April 23, 2015)

At the same time, Lesley Wroughton tells us that,

"U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry told his Russian counterpart in a phone call on Wednesday that Russia must withdraw its forces from eastern Ukraine, a senior State Department official said on Thursday......

[Furthermore that]

Kerry told Lavrov that current U.S. training of Ukrainian National Guard units in the western part of Ukraine was "fully transparent, defensive" and at the invitation of the Ukrainian government, the official added." (Reuters: Thu Apr 23, 2015)

Meanwhile, Putin's agents continue to be discovered and arrested in Ukrainian cities.  

"A militant from the so-called Luhansk People's Republic has been arrested in Dnipropetrovsk. Grenades and communications equipment were discovered after the 37-year-old man was arrested on Thurs April 23, 2015." (Ukraine Today)

Presciently, Natalia Zinets informed us on Tues Apr 21,2015 that,

"Ukraine is planning an operation involving tens of thousands of police to guard against any attack by separatists or Russian agents during World War Two commemorations next month, security chiefs said on Tuesday.

Tension is mounting in the capital and other cities amid an increase in rebel attacks in the east." (Reuters : Tue Apr 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

This current arrest in Dnipropetrovsk merely underscores the immoral depths to which Putin and his 'siloviki' clan is sinking.

We now await to see what will be decided at Monday's meeting in Kiev between Poroshenko and the EU leaders. 

(to be continued)

Putin has "thrown caution to the wind"

The eleventh hour for the predicted and imminent invasion of Mariupol by Putin's proxies and his Russian soldiers is rapidly nearing.

We have been informed 8 hours ago (Current BST: 07:35) that,

"State department spokeswoman Marie Harf (left) said in a statement that "combined Russian-separatist forces" were violating the terms of the Minsk deal, keeping artillery and multiple rocket launchers in prohibited areas.

"The Russian military has deployed additional air defence systems into eastern Ukraine and moved several of these nearer the front lines," she said." (BBC News : April 23, 2015) (my emphasis)

At the same time,

"Amid a country in conflict, their industry is in crisis…and Ukraine’s miners are making themselves heard.
From the west and war-torn east, hundreds gathered in Kyiv – breaking through police lines in a protest near the president’s office and banging their helmets on the ground.” (Euronews : 22/04/2015)

We therefore have to ask ourselves,

"Why are miners also from the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine suddenly converging on Kiev, demanding increases in salaries and the restoration of state subsidies?"

And finally, to top it all, that dyed-in-the-wool Soviet foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov,

"....during a two-hour marathon Q&A session with three Russian radio stations: Echo of Moscow, Moscow Speaks and Sputnik Radio....

[stated that]

The Ukrainian crisis is used by the US to derail Russia’s partnership with the EU and particularly Germany, Lavrov (left) stressed.

“An open partnership between Russia and Germany is necessary to rattle the European Union, to make the lane of pursuing national interests of [EU] member states prevailing, not to give up the EU policies to marginal politicians acting on orders from across the ocean,” Lavrov explained. (RT : April 22, 2015) (my emphasis)

 It is simply no co-incidence that these three events occured practically simultaneously viz.

(1) Russian military deploying additional air defence systems into eastern Ukraine 
(2) Ukraine's miners suddenly protesting in Kiev, AND
(3) Lavrov holding a two-hour marathon on Russian radio to blame the US for
     wanting to derail the cosy relationship that Putin has with the German
    "Putinversteher" political establishment and the German public

Putin is finally throwing caution to the wind.

The "Black Swan Event" abyss into which Putin has launched himself into, together with his close circle of kleptocratic 'siloviki',  signifies that he simply has "no exit strategy" from the tangled web of political deception that he has woven for himself.

  Fradkov          Shoigu             Patruschev        Kolokoltsev         Bortnikov

Lavrov has set the stage of preparing the Russian people for the "fallout" of what is to come from that which Putin has now set in motion.

Putin's propaganda machine is gearing itself up for this task.

Stephen Ennis gives us a short insight into what both the Russian people and the world at large can expect from Putin's propaganda machine.

"Russian TV's coverage of the fighting in and around the village of Shyrokyne in east Ukraine provides a useful case study of some of the tactics it uses to mislead viewers about the conflict there."

•  In its primetime news on 20 April, official channel Rossiya 1 said "violations" by the Ukrainian side were an "everyday occurrence". As the correspondent (left) uttered these words, viewers were shown pictures of wrecked buildings and also what looked like a corpse under a pink sheet. The corpse was then shown being carried away on a makeshift stretcher by four OSCE observers.

• Alongside blaming Ukrainian forces for ceasefire violations in Shyrokyne, Russian state TV has also accused them of deliberately targeting civilians....But the full version of the video (posted among other places on the Ukrainian website Censor.net) told a rather different story

• Immediately after the video excerpt of the mortar fire, Bilibov's report showed an elderly woman, one of the few dozen civilians still left in Shyrokyne. "Do they shoot at you?" Bilibov asked. The woman tearfully told him how she has been forced to take refuge from the fighting in a cellar.
  
  
  
  The woman is presented as yet another victim of the merciless "punishers", as Russian state TV likes to term Ukrainian troops.
  
  The views of a Shyrokyne resident are presented in different ways on different channels
  But although she may be suffering because of Ukrainian mortar fire, this woman's view of the conflict is very different from that presented on Russian TV.
  
  Just a few days earlier, she had featured in a video report by Vice News's Simon Ostrovsky, in which she was shown upbraiding separatist army spokesman Eduard Basurin.
  
  She said she felt intimidated by the armed men on the streets and pleaded with Basurin to leave her village in peace. "We want you to establish the borders and leave us in Ukraine," she told him. (BBC : 22 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)
  
  
  

The 17th EU-Ukraine summit is scheduled to take place on the 27th April in Kiev.

Included on the agenda will be,

" .....an opportunity to discuss:

• the implementation of the Association Agreement and the political and economic reforms in Ukraine including EU financial and other assistance
• the crisis in Eastern Ukraine and the application of the Minsk agreements, including the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) (European Council) (right: EU President Tusk and Poroshenko)

 Has Putin jumped into the "Black Swan Event" abyss in the hope that, as Lavrov has stated, "to rattle [and intimidate] the European Union with his political allies in the EU?

Some of Putin's EU "friends"

The 'fragrant'  Mogherini             (Italy)  Renzi                  (Greece) Tsipras          (Germany) Steinmeier

(to be continued)

Should Putin be taken at his word? Putin's 'weaponization' of information.

Recently the Finnish Prime Minister, Alexander Stubb (left), countered Putin's warning that,

"Finland and Sweden moving toward NATO is of “special concern.”, (AlJazeera: April 20, 2015)

by simply delaring his warning as “sabre-rattling.”

Former Polish President Lech Walesa (right) is more cautious, however. He argues that,

"..the West should confront Russian President Vladimir Putin with its own arsenal of nuclear weapons to curb what he called Russian aggression." (Dennis Lynch : International Business Times : April 08 2015) (my emphasis)

Let us remind ourselves that, as Julian Isherwood reported in March,

"Russia has gone on the offensive in the Baltic, warning Denmark that if it joins Nato’s missile defence shield, its navy will be a legitimate target for a Russian nuclear attack." (The Telegraph : 21 Mar 2015) (my emphasis)   

More recently, reinforcing the argument of  Lech Walesa, Justin Huggler informs us that,

"The commander of the US army in Europe has warned that Nato must remain united in the face of a "real threat" from Russiail

"It's not an assumption. There is a Russian threat," Lt-Gen Frederick "Ben" Hodges (right) said. (The Telegraph : 18 Apr 2015) (my emphasis)

And yesterday Natalia Zinets informed us that,

"Ukraine is planning an operation involving tens of thousands of police to guard against any attack by separatists or Russian agents during World War Two commemorations next month, security chiefs said on Tuesday.

Tension is mounting in the capital and other cities amid an increase in rebel attacks in the east." (Reuters : Tue Apr 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

Those analysing Putin's recent choreographed annual discussion with the nation through his “direct line” press conference (The Guardian :Thursday 16 April 2015) have noted that,

"...unlike previous appearances, Putin seemed to be quite moderate in his remarks about the Ukrainian authorities and the situation in the country's east. 

Not once did he mention the word "illegitimate" in reference to the Ukrainian authorities. "Militia" and "self-defence forces" also disappeared from his speech.

"Self-proclaimed republics" were replaced with "territories called LPR and DPR" on the first mention and then he referred to the rebel-held areas simply as Donbass

[H]e called Ukraine an "independent" state, and said twice that it should be "respected". (BBC : 19 Apr 2015)

Added to which, Ivana Kottasova (left) informs us that,

"Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (right) gave the first official estimate of the cost in a speech Tuesday.

He said the decision to annex Crimea had sparked a crisis that turned out to be "more difficult" than even the most pessimistic expectations.

Western sanctions imposed over Crimea and Moscow's support for separatist rebels in eastern Ukraine had cost Russia $26.7 billion in 2014. This year, the costs could balloon to $80 billion, he said.

"There should be no illusions. Today we are faced not only with a short term crisis," Medvedev said.

The latest trade statistics show just how bad the situation has become. The value of Russia's foreign trade slumped 30% in the first two months of this year."(CNN Money : (London) April 21, 2015) (my emphasis)

Yet during his marathon speech, Putin was rather upbeat about the Russian economy, proclaiming that,

"Russia has weathered the worst of its economic troubles and is on the road to recovery, President Vladimir Putin said Thursday during a marathon call-in TV show (Vladimir Isachenkov: Associated Press : Apr. 17, 2015) (my emphasis)

And yet, notwithstanding an economy that is in dire straits, which Medvedev so succinctly outlined, Putin re-affirmed that,

"...[a]n ambitious weapons modernization program will go ahead despite the economy, although it could be pushed beyond its 2020 target." (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

And true to form as an inveterate liar, when

"..[p]ressed again about claims of a Russian military presence in Ukraine, he said: "There are no Russian troops in Ukraine." (ibid Vladimir Isachenkov) (my emphasis)

We should therefore be very cautious indeed when taking what Putin says at face value.

As VoA reports,

"A number of Western officials, including U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, have voiced concerns about unprecedented efforts by Russia to spread misinformation across the entire area of the former Soviet Union and much of Europe. Experts at a congressional panel in Washington described the vast Russian media operation as “the weaponization of information.” (VoA: April 16, 2015)(my emphasis)

(to be continued)